DFS Alerts
Overlooked Stack of Lefty Mashers
Danny Duffy is hovering around a 40% hard hit and fly ball rate this year with a 5.04 xFIP, yet it seems like the Twins may go under-owned yet again despite the 6.1 implied run total and leading the league in home runs. C.J. Cron is back from the IL and Marwin Gonzalez has been bumped up the order to 4th tonight. With both under $4k on DraftKings, it allows much easier access to a reasonably priced 5-man Twins stack (~$21.5k combined) each currently projected to be under 5% owned in large-field GPPs.
Other tagged players: C.J. Cron
Nola is worth paying up for tonight vs. White Sox
After getting off to a rough start this year, Aaron Nola has returned to ace form: since May 1st, Nola has posted a 3.13 ERA, 3.86 xFIP, 27.6 K% and .286 xwOBA allowed. Nola is at home tonight to face the White Sox, who have a pitiful league-worst 64 wRC+ and 28% K rate over the past 30 days. Overall, they have an 82 wRC+ and 26.4% K rate vs. RHP this year. Without Yoan Moncada in the lineup, the White Sox have just 2 batters who have an xwOBA greater than .320 vs. RHP this year. Nola is a better pitcher in home starts, as he’s allowed just a .259 xwOBA, 3.19 xFIP with a 21.7% K-BB at home compared to a .304 xwOBA allowed, 3.81 xFIP and 15.6% K-BB on the road. Nola is almost $1k cheaper than Walker Buehler on this slate, though he arguably has more upside and a better matchup. The White Sox currently have just a 3.08 implied line vs. Nola and the Phillies
Twins have mashed LHP this year, have 6.10 implied total vs. Duffy tonight
The Twins scored 11 runs last night and find themselves in another good spot tonight vs. Danny Duffy. Fortunately, with many other good stack options on the slate tonight, the Twins’ hitters don’t figure to see crazy ownership tonight despite an implied total that currently sits at 6.10. Danny Duffy has been pretty mediocre this year with a 4.42 ERA / 5.04 xFIP, 12.4% K-BB, 36% GB rate and 10% SwStr. Duffy has been a bit more vulnerable vs. RHB since 2018 (.347 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB, .322 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB) but can be targeted from both sides of the plate tonight. The Twins have really mashed LHP this year and have a number of enticing options in their lineup tonight: Mitch Garver (208 wRC+, .431 ISO vs. LHP this year), Nelson Cruz (175 wRC+, .440 ISO), CJ Cron (167 wRC+, .315 ISO), Miguel Sano (163 wRC+, .368 ISO), Jonathan Schoop (128 wRC+, .247 ISO), Max Kepler (108 wRC+, .231 ISO) and Marwin Gonzalez (100 wRC+, .180 ISO) are all great options tonight. Marwin Gonzalez is the best value in the bunch, batting 4th at just $3.4k on Draftkings. CJ Cron makes his return from the IL tonight and will bat 7th at just $3.7k. Mitch Garver is especially intriguing, he’ll cost $5.2k but is batting leadoff at a shallow catcher position and has destroyed LHP so far this year.
Other tagged players: Mitch Garver, Miguel Sano, C.J. Cron, Marwin Gonzalez, Max Kepler, Jonathan Schoop, Danny Duffy Rockies in a good spot in Coors vs. Bumgarner
Perhaps we can get Rockies bats in Coors tonight for a slightly lower ownership than they should be after they underperformed in a great matchup last night, and now face Madison Bumgarner who has put together a nice string of starts recently. Bumgarner has had a decent season with a 3.74 ERA and 4.07 xFIP, but there’s a few reasons we should have no problem attacking him in Coors tonight. Bumgarner has been a far less effective pitcher in road starts; since 2017, he owns a .333 xwOBA allowed, 4.45 FIP and 14.8% K-BB in road starts, compared to a .299 xwOBA, 3.31 FIP and 18% K-BB in home starts. In that time frame, Bumgarner has thrown 17 innings in Coors field, posting a 5.82 ERA, .412 wOBA allowed and 5.83 FIP. Ian Desmond (.389 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Nolan Arenado (.362), Charlie Blackmon (.354), Trevor Story (.335) and Chris Iannetta (.331) are all great options in the projected order. Desmond is a great value at just $4.3k on Draftkings. Raimel Tapia has struggled vs. LHP (.279) but will likely be in the lineup due to Dahl’s injury and will cost just $3.8k on Draftkings. Garrett Hampson (.234) is another guy that has struggled but comes with just a $3k price tag and is a great play if he cracks the lineup. The Rockies currently have a 6.01 implied line vs. Bumgarner and the Giants tonight.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Chris Iannetta, Garrett Hampson, Raimel Tapia Cheap Leverage Stack In The Texas Heat
Adrian Sampson could easily get into trouble tonight in Texas with his 48.1% hard hits, 40.6% fly balls at only an 18% strikeout rate. While the Tigers are one of the worst hitting teams in the MLB, the ballpark upgrade, weather and matchup could mitigate this fact at bargain basement prices. Playing any of their bats as a one-off as a punt to get up to great 10k pitching options is absolutely viable in any format. But with Sampson potentially garnering ownership as an SP2 on DraftKings, a cheap 5-man stack at under $18.5k combined salary could provide ample leverage in large-field GPPs.
Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Jordy Mercer, JaCoby Jones, Travis Demeritte, Harold Castro A Quietly Elite Spot
After the White Sox and Padres, the lowest implied team total on the slate currently belongs to the Kansas City Royals against Kyle Gibson. They have a lower team total than the teams facing Robbie Ray, Trevor Bauer, Stephen Strasburg, and Matt Boyd. It’s a testament to how underwhelming the Kansas City offense is, though they did explode a bit offensively on Friday (while still losing). As a team, they rank 24th in wOBA and 27th in ISO against RHP in 2019. They don’t strike out a ton, which will limit the upside a bit for Gibson. Still, he’s a reasonably safe value arm with his respectable command and 3.66 SIERA. In cash games, he makes the most sense as a second core pitcher tonight.
Great Spot Against a Bad Pitcher
I love this spot for the Phillies, as Detwiler is an underwhelming pitcher, and the White Sox bullpen should be taxed after eight relievers were used to cover ten innings in last night’s marathon. The Phillies have merely been a middle of the pack offense against LHP this year, but I expect a breakout tonight. Rhys Hoskins is your clear top target with his .443 wOBA and .300 ISO against LHP this year to go along with a ridiculous 22.5% walk rate. He gets on base at an elite clip against southpaws. Jean Segura also has strong numbers against lefties and makes sense as a play in any format. I’ve tagged Cesar Hernandez as a core play on FanDuel only given his dirt cheap price tag over there, but it’s contingent upon him occupying the leadoff spot.
Other tagged players: Cesar Hernandez Yankees bats are affordable despite being in a great spot in game 2 of doubleheader tonight
The Yankees get a matchup vs. Brian Johnson tonight in Yankee Stadium in the 2nd game of their doubleheader and currently have a healthy 5.94 implied total. Johnson was just activated from the IL to start this game and likely won’t see a heavy pitch count. In 113 1/3 innings between the rotation and bullpen over the past 2 years, Johnson has pitched to a 4.45 ERA, 4.87 xFIP and 11.1% K-BB with a .344 wOBA allowed. Aaron Judge (.405 xwOBA vs. this year), DJ LeMahieu (.367), Cameron Maybin (.362), Gio Urshela (.361), Edwin Encarnacion (.353), Gleyber Torres (.346) and Aaron Hicks (.297) are all great options in the projected lineup tonight. Austin Romine is another option if he’s in the lineup; he’s been the Yankees hottest hitter over the past 2 weeks with a .453 xwOBA. Gio Urshela (.442) and Gleyber Torres (.411) have also seen the ball well recently. Aaron Hicks (.288) has continued to struggle but his 121 wRC+ since 2017 suggests he will likely turn it around soon. All Yankees hitters will be $4.6k or less on Draftkings in this matchup; some great values include Judge ($4k), Torres and Urshela ($3.9k) and Romine ($3.3k).
Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks, Gio Urshela, Cameron Maybin Cheaper Exposure To Coors
Ideally we can get to Trevor Story or Nolan Arenado in Coors against a lefty, but they are priced up across the industry making them harder to get to. I like Ian Desmond in all formats, especially cash games, at his price point. He allows you to get exposure to Coors without breaking the bank. While I don’t love picking on Madison Bumgarner (who I actually think is an interesting GPP option), Desmond has mashed left-handed pitching this season where he owns a .980 OPS against southpaws this season and has mashed 9 of his 13 homers against lefties.
New Astro Aaron Sanchez is an intriguing SP option vs. Mariners
The Astros are well known for working their magic with starters, and it’s quite possible Aaron Sanchez makes some adjustments in Houston that lead to him being a much more effective pitcher. Sanchez is a former top prospect who has previously proven himself at the MLB level; over 284 innings in 2015 and 2016, Sanchez posted a 3.07 ERA, .283 wOBA allowed and 3.92 xFIP. Even if Sanchez can’t get back to that level, he is due for some positive regression anyways as his ERA (6.07) is a full run higher than all his traditional estimators. Sanchez was also beginning to show improvements before the trade, with a 4.27 xFIP, 4.21 SIERA, 23.7% K rate, 6.1% BB rate and just a .297 xwOBA allowed over 25 2/3 innings in the past 30 days. Sanchez gets a matchup tonight with the Mariners, who have just a .306 xwOBA and 25.5% K rate vs. RHP over the last 30 days. The most appealing aspect of Sanchez tonight is his price; he’ll cost just $5.3k on Draftkings and $6.6k on Fanduel. The Mariners have just a 4.28 implied line vs. Sanchez, and he’ll have a good shot at a ‘W’ as the Astros are currently -220 favorites tonight.
Punt YOLO
I get it, nobody wants to play Adrian Sampson. But the guy is dirt-cheap across the industry and faces a Tigers team that leads the Majors in K% against right-handed pitching and just traded away their best player in Nick Castellanos. Is Sampson good? No, probably not. In fact there’s significant risk here he ends up with negative fantasy points. But I’m targeting the matchup and the fact he has shown some upside in previous outings. One thing to note is that Sampson has been much worse against righties so he’s showing signs of being a reverse-splits pitcher, so monitor how many lefties the Tigers include in their lineup as that will actually work in Sampson’s favor. I will be playing a lot of Sampson in GPPs and for cash games, I think it makes sense to punt all the way down to either him or Aaron Sanchez for your SP2 (if you think the Astros’ pitching staff can revive him). YOLO!
Stud Ace In Prime Matchup
The top tier is loaded with good pitchers, so my plan is to rotate my exposure and grab shares of many of them as I don’t love the mid-tier. Aaron Nola is my favorite at the high end when factoring in price and matchup. He’s facing a White Sox team that has the 2nd highest K% against right-handed pitching, and the Phillies have been giving Nola a long leash to work with. Walker Buehler is my other high-end target since he faces the Padres, who rank 3rd in K%, but the Padres have more power than the White Sox so I’m giving Nola the edge.
Affordable Lead-Off Hitter In Elite Conditions
Belt continues to lead off for the Giants and while he’s been scuffling lately, Coors can cure any slump. While I don’t love trying to pick on Jon Gray, Belt is on the right side of the platoon and remains affordable for a matchup in high altitude. Gray has struggled more against lefties this season, allowing a .329 wOBA compared to a .317 wOBA to righties. I love other 1st basemen on this slate (Hoskins, Goldschmidt), but Belt has a lot more factors working in his favor.
Slumping Slugger Facing Homer-Prone Righty
I know he’s been bad lately, but Justin Upton is in a get-well spot tonight. He faces off against Adam Plutko, the owner of a 2.50 HR/9 ratio and a 17.4% HR/FB ratio. Plutko has also shown worse splits against righties like Justin Upton, where he’s allowing a .361 wOBA to righties (compared to a .305 wOBA to lefties). Upton hasn’t done much lately, but at his cheap salary across the industry and his juicy middle-of-the-order lineup spot, it’s hard not to like him in all formats.
Matt Boyd has best SIERA (2.87) and K-BB (31%) over past 30 days of any starter today
Matt Boyd has had a dominant breakout season that has seen him post a 3.33 xFIP, 3.23 SIERA, 32.5% K Rate, 5.3% BB rate and 14.2% SwStr. Boyd also has just a .284 xwOBA allowed and an 87.7 MPH aEV. Boyd has been especially locked in over the past 30 days, posting a 38% K rate, 2.87 SIERA, 2.63 xFIP, 16.1% SwStr and a .259 xwOBA allowed. Boyd gets a matchup vs. the Rangers in Globe Life Park tonight. The Rangers are a pretty lackluster offense without Joey Gallo, but the environment isn’t ideal as Globe Life Park is a very hitter friendly park. Fortunately, the Rangers have just a 94 wRC+ and 25.6% K rate over the past 30 days, and they have just an 88 wRC+ and 26% K rate vs. LHP on the year. They have just two batters in their projected lineup who have an xwOBA greater than .325 vs. LHP in 2019. Also working in Boyd’s favor will be a very pitcher friendly umpire in Eric Cooper. Boyd isn’t as safe as usual pitching in Globe Life Park, but we’re getting a bit of a discount on his price as a result, and he might see lower than usual ownership on him especially with other decent options on this slate. He also has plenty of upside given his ability to miss bats (especially over the last 30 days) and the Rangers’ K rate vs. LHP.