DFS Alerts
Skills + Matchup + Salary
Of course I love Gerrit Cole in any matchup, but we can save a lot of salary tonight while keeping our upside intact with Mike Clevinger pitching at home against the high strikeout Tigers. Clevinger got up to 92 pitches in his last start, and should continue to go up from there, so the ceiling is in place. Over the past two seasons, Clevinger has struck out 30.9% of right-handed bats and even the lefties that Detroit can get into the lineup now come with plenty of strikeout upside.
Top GPP Upside Pivot
Gerrit Cole has obviously been great this year. Mike Clevinger draws a prime matchup against the Tigers tonight. Both of those pitchers are capable of big production, but I will lean more GPP exposure toward Robbie Ray. Cole has to face off against an Angels team that has the lowest strikeout rate in baseball, and Clevinger is going to be the most popular option on the slate. That leaves Ray to slide in at low ownership with upside. We all know the drill with Ray by now — he has massive strikeout upside but plenty of risk with walks and hard contact. That risk/reward nature is even more extreme with a matchup in Texas against the Rangers. The park increases the risk of hard contact leaving the yard, but the Rangers are also a free-swinging team that will increase Ray’s strikeout upside. I wouldn’t touch Ray in cash games, but the GPP upside is undeniable. He could be the lowest scoring pitcher on the slate, or he could be the highest scoring pitcher on the slate.
Load Up The Lefty Power
The Dodgers are in a fantastic spot for the third straight night, as their power bats match up well with Nick Pivetta. While Pivetta has always had some promise, the results just haven’t been there at the big league level. Pivetta has shown a reverse splits lean in his 2019 sample, but he is getting hit hard by everyone — allowing a 44% hard contact rate to lefties and a 41% hard contact rate to righties. I’ll side with the LH power for the Dodgers, as they are all capable of smashing RHP with Bellinger (.389 ISO), Pederson (.315 ISO), and Muncy (.294 ISO) leading the way. If you can afford it, the GPP stack has massive appeal.
Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy Top Wednesday Night Stack
The Red Sox have been pounding the baseball so far this week against the Blue Jays, with 18 runs over the first two games of this series. They are in another fine spot tonight against Aaron Sanchez, an underwhelming pitcher with completely abysmal numbers in 2019. Sanchez has an ERA north of 6.00 with a 17% strikeout rate and a 12% walk rate. The Boston bats are Coors-level priced, but the upside is immense in this matchup. Betts, Bogaerts, and Devers are all elite options, while Vazquez is in play on DK where you need a catcher. I’m even willing to take a chance on Andrew Benintendi here, as his at bats have looked much better over the past week. You can’t go wrong with this lineup tonight.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Christian Vazquez Franmil Reyes scratched Tuesday; Josh Naylor replaces
Reyes has been scratched from the San Diego Padres original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Miami Marlins due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Josh Naylor, who will now play right field and slot into the fifth spot in the order, which bumps Hunter Renfroe up to fourth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Padres lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Jordan Yamamoto on the road this evening.
As reported by: the San Diego Padres via Twitter Other tagged players: Josh Naylor
First five in A's projected lineup above a 110 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP last calendar year
Marco Gonzales has faced the Athletics three times this year with some impressive results: 21 IP – 8 R – 6 ER – 3 HR – 4 BB – 13 K – 85 BF. However, the A’s have otherwise manhandled LHP this season (114 wRC+, 17.6 K%, 16.1 HR/FB) and there are certainly enough holes in Gonzales’s game this year that the Oakland lineup may contain some worthwhile plays tonight. First, he hasn’t generated a swinging strike rate above 6.7% in a game since May. Second, his 4.24 ERA and 4.08 FIP are dependent on an unsustainable 7.9 HR/FB. While it’s true he’s only generated 5.8% Barrels/BBE, and aEV of 89.1 mph makes that seem a bit sketchy. This will also be the third time the A’s get a look at him in six starts, which generally lends the advantage to the offense. Each of the first five batters in the projected lineup for the A’s generate a wRC+ above 110 vs LHP over the last calendar year. Each additionally adds a wRC+ above .200 over the same span. Matt Chapman (149 wRC+, .251 ISO) and Khris Davis (142 wRC+, .309 ISO), but Gonzales has actually exhibited a reverse split over the last 12 months (RHBs .330 wOBA, .352 xwOBA), while Matt Olson has hit same-handed pitching very well (128 wRC+, .228 ISO). At a healthy 5.39 implied runs, the A’s find themselves merely in the middle of the board tonight.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Marco Gonzales
Steven Matz (20.9 HR/FB) faces a lineup with right-handed power
Steven Matz has had a rough go of it lately. He has yet to start a game in July after being temporarily moved to the pen due to allowing 14 runs over his last three starts (11.1 IP). That’s brought his ERA up to 4.89 and the larger problem is that it’s not that far out of line with any of his estimators or a .340 xwOBA. He’s now up to a 20.9 HR/FB and 11.2% Barrels/BBE. A trip to Minnesota will not do him any favors, as the Twins have simply mauled LHP (126 wRC+, 20.4 K%, 18 HR/FB). Over the last calendar year, LHBs have actually hit Matz better than RHBs (.387 wOBA to .328), but the ground ball rate drops 10 points to 43.7% with a 39.1 Hard% against righties. At 5.79 implied runs, the Twins are just sixth on the board tonight with an offense projected to supply quite a bit of right-handed power. Mitch Garver (165 wRC+, .293 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Nelson Cruz (135 wRC+, .264 ISO), and Marwin Gonzalez (149 wRC+, .242 ISO) should be featured in the top half of the lineup, while Miguel Sano (132 wRC+, .329 ISO) may be worth looking at a bit lower in the order. Gonzalez, particularly, provides some salary relief at just $3.5K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez, Miguel Sano, Steven Matz Red-Hot Offense Takes on Struggling Pitcher
The Cleveland offense has finally sprung to life over the past two weeks, leading the majors in slugging percentage and wOBA over the past 14 days, and tonight they take on (weather permitting) a pitcher in Ryan Carpenter who simply has not shown the ability to get big-league hitters out. Over two partial seasons in the majors, Carpenter has allowed a .416 wOBA to lefties and a .414 wOBA to righties, while giving up 19 home runs in exactly 60 innings. Every Cleveland hitter that makes the lineup is in play here, but I’ll be targeting the top of the order – Francisco Lindor, Oscar Mercado, Carlos Santana, Jordan Luplow, and Jose Ramirez.
Other tagged players: Oscar Mercado, Carlos Santana, Jordan Luplow, Jose Ramirez
LHBs have a .407 wOBA and 46 Hard% vs Anthony DeSclafani over the last calendar year
Anthony DeSclafani has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts, against some pretty powerful offenses as well (Astros, Brewers, Cubs) and owns a solid 17.1 K-BB% vs RHP with most estimators meeting his 4.26 ERA (besides a 5.17 DRA). However, under the right conditions, DeSclafani can be a useful target for daily fantasy players hunting HRs. That’s because he’s allowed 12 to LHBs this year already, while they own a .407 wOBA against him over the last calendar year. He’s probably not that bad, but a .358 xwOBA, 46 Hard% and 31.2 GB% are still plenty good enough to play some left-handed power here. Kyle Schwarber (103 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Anthony Rizzo (163 wRC+, .257 ISO) and Jason Heyward (114 wRC+, .175 ISO) are all above average hitters expected to be in the lineup tonight. Conditions don’t appear to be as favorable as last night when the home offense disappointed, but weather isn’t expected to be a negative here either.
Other tagged players: Jason Heyward, Anthony DeSclafani, Kyle Schwarber Extreme Splits for Pitcher Create Overlooked Bargains for Lineup
Austin Voth is competing to be the Nationals fifth starter, but he has been held back by his inability to get left-handed hitters out this season at any level. Across the minors and majors this year, Voth has given up a .574 slugging percentage and .958 OPS to lefties. With all of the high-powered offenses on the slate Baltimore should be extremely low-owned, and for GPPs I’ll be looking to fill out some of my lineups with Baltimore lefties – particularly Chance Sisco (.365 ISO against righties this season in 73 plate appearances), Dwight Smith, and Jonathan Villar.
Other tagged players: Jonathan Villar, Dwight Smith Jr. Rookie Pitcher Could Be Under-Owned Facing High-Strikeout Offense
We have an offense-heavy slate today with every single game having a Vegas total of 9 runs or more and most of the games with double digit totals – with the sole exception being the game in Miami, which only has a run total of 8. Jordan Yamamoto and the Marlins are slight underdogs in this game, but with the Padres leading the league in K% (26.1%) against right-handed pitching and the pitcher-friendly ballpark, Yamamoto has both strikeout upside with some safety. Yes, he is overpriced due to his 1.24 ERA that is due for some regression, but pitching tonight could be more about avoiding blowups than finding value.
Too Much Upside To Pass
If Brandon Belt played half his games at Coors Field, his numbers would be scary good, and we would probably look at this salary as a clear bargain. Against right-handed pitching this season, Belt has struck out just 16.6% of the time while taking 15.8% walks to go along with a .205 ISO, .362 wOBA and 50% fly balls. A lot of those fly balls end up short of the wall in his home ballpark, but here he gets the biggest possible ballpark shift while facing a low strikeout righty in Peter Lambert who has allowed a goofy 54% hard contact rate to lefties so far in his young career.
Don't Overthink It
In tournaments tonight, you can go as wild as your heart desires spreading out among all the high upside offenses. But as far as cash games and building an optimal core for limited entry tournaments, there is no need to overthink the Rockies righties at home against Drew Pomeranz. He has a 9.76 ERA on the road this season, 9.76. Pomeranz has walked 11% of righties this season to go along with a .275 ISO against, and that’s while pitching half his games in the best pitchers park in the league. Arenado has a .313 ISO and .452 wOBA with low 17.6% strikeouts against lefties this season and is just as dangerous against righties when the Rockies get into the San Francisco bullpen.
Salary Matters Tonight
I do not love this matchup for Jack Flaherty, and I do not love his inconsistency. However, the options for saving salary at pitcher dry up quick tonight, and Flaherty is underpriced for his overall skill set compared to the rest of this slate. While the Pirates can make things tough on him with their contact lefties, his 32% strikeouts to righties will still give him a fair amount of upside here. Against the lefties, we can hope that their lack of hard hit ability leads to a good BABIP outing and it won’t take much good luck to pay off this salary.
Ace Level Skills
In 11 starts since the beginning of May, Walker Buehler has a 30.5% K rate with just 1.7% walks. His pitch count has been raised, going over 100 pitches in four of his last six starts, going at least seven full innings in five of his last six. If you remove the Coors Field start, he has a ridiculous 51:2 K:BB ratio since the beginning of June. He’s an elite ace, but he’s not priced like one.