DFS Alerts
The Ideal Matchup
Trevor Bauer may not be the best pitcher on this slate, but he has an ideal matchup against Detroit and he also has an unmatched ability to pitch deep into games with his high pitch counts. The Tigers have the 4th highest strikeout rate in the league against righties while ranking 28th in ISO and 30th in wOBA. While Bauer’s 27.4% K rate isn’t quite at ace level, he gets a boost to that by his high pitch counts. He has thrown over 105 pitches a remarkable 18 times this season and has been over 114 pitches in six of his last eight starts.
Fire up the Power Bats
The trio of Yelich, Trout, and Bellinger have put on quite a show this year, and Yelich takes the nod as my favorite play on the evening slate. His splits against RHP are absurd in 2019, with a .364 batting mark, a .488 wOBA, a 204 wRC+, a .411 ISO, and a 1.243 OPS. Those are video game type numbers. Tonight’s matchup is a good one against a middle of the road arm in Merrill Kelly, who has allowed a 44.6% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters this year. Kelly has a fly ball lean, as well, which puts Yelich squarely in play for a potential long ball tonight. All the power hitters for the Brewers are playable, but Yelich is my top option on the board. You can add in Grandal or Moustakas as part of a LH power stack in GPP formats, too.
Other tagged players: Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal
Time for a Turnaround
He hasn’t had a great season by any measure, but the trends from the last start for Noah Syndergaard are very positive. He had nine walks and no strikeouts, his velocity was up 1-2 MPH on average, and he posted a 70% ground ball rate. His stuff looked much sharper. Of course, that was against the Marlins, but he draws another favorable matchup tonight against the Giants in a cozy, pitcher-friendly park. The Giants have an implied team total of just 3.5 runs tonight, and I expect Syndergaard to keep his positive momentum rolling. He’s a fine GPP option.
Great Upside In This Matchup
Walks and hard contact remain a problem for Bauer, but he still brings a lot of strikeout upside to the table with his 27% strikeout rate and 12% swinging strike rate for the year. He also draws the most favorable matchup in all of baseball these days for a pitcher, as right-handed pitchers have been mowing down the Tigers in their sleep. Detroit ranks 29th in team wOBA, 27th in team ISO, and last in wRC+ against RHP this season, and they also are tied with the Padres for the highest strikeout rate. That’s not a good combination of factors, and Bauer should be in line for a great performance here. Throw in the fact that Cleveland almost always lets him throw 100+ pitches, and you have all the makings of the night’s top arm.
Start of TOR-BOS will be delayed due to rain Wednesday
The start of the matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox on Wednesday evening will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Red Sox have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Eduardo Rodriguez not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he believes that this contest will play through to conclusion following the initial delay.
As reported by: Alex Speier via Twitter
TBR-NYY postponed due to the forecast of inclement weather Wednesday
The game between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees on Wednesday evening has been postponed due to forecasted inclement weather throughout the remainder of the evening hours. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Thursday, July 18 at 3:00 pm EST as part of a traditional, single-admission doubleheader. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Wednesday’s daily fantasy slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: the New York Yankees via Twitter Niko Goodrum (finger) scratched Wednesday; Brandon Dixon replaces
Goodrum has been scratched from the Detroit Tigers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Cleveland Indians due to an injured finger. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Brandon Dixon, who will now play first base and slot directly into Goodrum’s vacated seventh spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Tigers lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Mike Clevinger on the road this evening.
As reported by: the Detroit Tigers via Twitter Other tagged players: Brandon Dixon Tigers have a 75 wRC+ and 18.9 K-BB% vs RHP
Mike Clevinger has allowed a single run or less in four of his six starts with a 39.7 K% that’s best on the board. That is unlikely to be sustainable over the long run, but he’s facing possibly the worst offense in baseball. The Tigers own a 75 wRC+, 18.9 K-BB% and 10.1 HR/FB vs RHP. In addition to the strikeouts, Clevinger is also tied for second tonight with both an 85.1 mph aEV and 5.2% Barrels/BBE. Theoretically, he should dominate this Detroit lineup tonight. Few would argue that Gerrit Cole is still the better overall pitcher (30.9 K-BB%), but he has to face the Angels tonight, who are the hottest offense on the board since the break (151 wRC+) and have just an 18.2 K% vs RHP. While Cole is still probably a fine play tonight with Mike Trout not expected to play tonight, Clevinger costs at least $2K less on either site in a much superior matchup.
LHBs own a career .344 wOBA vs Spencer Turnbull (6.3 K-BB% last seven starts)
Spencer Turnbull has a 6.3 K-BB% over his last seven starts. A 50.5 GB% and 9.1 HR/FB are the only things keeping his ERA below five over that span and the latter can certainly be argued against with a 29.8 Hard-Soft% over that span. Turnbull now owns an 88.3 mph aEV for the season. The high ground ball rate will help him, but with a higher rate of contact, and harder contact at that, it’s not going to save him. After a terrible start, the Indians are now up to a 94 wRC+ with a 13.2 K-BB% and 14.4 HR/FB vs RHP, essentially league average. Turnbull is now exhibiting a substantial platoon issue as well. LHBs own a .344 wOBA and .357 xwOBA against him in his short career now. The Indians will attack him with seven lefties tonight. Their 5.92 implied run line is fourth best on the board with all three offenses above them having potential weather concerns tonight. Francisco Lindor (106 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Carlos Santana (129 wRC+, .233 ISO), and Jason Kipnis (114 wRC+, .192 ISO) lead the charge in the top half of the lineup. Jose Ramirez (90 wRC+, .179 ISO) is actually one of the hottest Cleveland bats since the break (156 wRC+, 52.2 Hard%).
Other tagged players: Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Spencer Turnbull, Jose Ramirez Pitching matchup in Miami offers weather safety and strikeout prone offenses
With all the weather concern on the east coast tonight, one place where players won’t have to worry about a rain delay or cancellation is in Miami and it offers players a pretty solid pitching matchup as well. Or at least two below average offenses in an extremely negative run environment. Chris Paddack has struck out 14 of his last 43 batters, allowing one run over two starts after the Padres gave him a bit of a break. He’ll take a 21.2 K-BB% and 86.1 mph aEV up against the Marlins (78 wRC+, 18 K-BB%, 11.2 HR/FB vs RHP). Estimators are about a run above Paddack’s 2.84 ERA due to a .224 BABIP and five of his 31 runs being unearned, but a .277 xwOBA is a bit more optimistic. The drawback is that Paddack costs $10.9K on DraftKings and only averages 21 batters per game. He’s $2.6K less on FanDuel though.
Trevor Richards with just a 20.8 K% and 10.6 BB%. He’s also allowed at least three runs in under six innings in four of his last five starts with non-FIP estimators well above his 4.18 ERA due to a 10.7 HR/FB, but if that’s sustainable anywhere in the current HR environment, it might be Miami, while an 86.5 mph aEV and 6.6% Barrels/BBE suggests he may deserve it, projecting a .312 xwOBA that’s a bit better than league average. The attraction here is that Richards costs $7.3K or less and will be facing a San Diego offense with an 18.8 K-BB% vs RHP.
Nick Pivetta has allowed multiple HRs in seven of 12 starts, owns a board high 10.1% Barrels/BBE
The game in Philadelphia will feature both the best (Kenta Maeda 84.8 mph aEV, 5.2% Barrels/BBE, .272 xwOBA) and worst (Nick Pivetta 89.2 mph aEV, 10.1% Barrels/BBE .369 xwOBA) contact managers on the board. While weather (both for delay potential and hitter friendly conditions) might dampen the prospects of Maeda without enormous upside (24.8 K%), the Dodgers are currently one of just three teams above six implied runs tonight (6.03). Loading up on elite lefty Dodger power bats is never a bad idea. It’s hard to argue Cody Bellinger (178 wRC+, .330 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Joc Pederson (131 wRC+, .302 ISO), Max Muncy (155 wRC+, .312 ISO) and Alex Verdugo (114 wRC+, .190 ISO) or Corey Seager (141 wRC+, .242 ISO) in the two spot aren’t among the top bats on the board tonight, but with winds blowing out towards center and Pivetta’s lack of a split over the last 12 months (LHBs .332 wOBA/.331 xwOBA, RHBs .355 wOBA/.326 xwOBA), Justin Turner (148 wRC+, .162 ISO) is looking nearly as strong in this spot. There’s also A.J. Pollock (92 wRC+, .177 ISO), who finally looks healthy with a 265 wRC+ and 58.3 Hard% since the break, both best among tonight’s projected lineup. In fact, the Dodgers’ team 140 wRC+ is third best in the majors since the break and second best on the slate, behind only the Angels (151). Pivetta has allowed multiple HRs in seven of his 12 starts this year.
Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Alex Verdugo, Max Muncy, Nick Pivetta, Kenta Maeda, A.J. Pollock Kyle Farmer scratched Wednesday; Juan Graterol replaces
Farmer has been scratched from the Cincinnati Reds original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Chicago Cubs due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Juan Graterol, who will now handle the catching duties and slot directly into Farmer’s vacated eighth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Reds lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against Yu Darvish on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Bobby Nightengale via Twitter Other tagged players: Juan Graterol Start of NYM-MIN will be delayed due to expected inclement weather Wednesday
The start of the matchup between the New York Mets and Minnesota Twins on Wednesday afternoon will be delayed due to approaching inclement weather. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Twins have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Martin Perez not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he believes that this contest has a tremendous chance to play through to conclusion following the initial delay.
As reported by: Phil Miller via Twitter Ideal For All Formats
The Indians are well suited to face right-handed pitching with all their left-handed bats, and the Tigers Spencer Turnbull is especially susceptible to lefties. While he’s managed a solid 26.2% K rate with 52% GB to righties, those numbers fall to 15.7% K and 46% GB to lefties with a .362 wOBA against. Francisco Lindor leads off with solid contact, plenty of fly balls and hard hits with a .231 ISO and .375 wOBA along with switch hitting ability when Detroit dips into their bad bullpen.
Keep Rolling Them Out There
This Dodgers team has had a field day in their trip to Philadelphia and there’s no reason to expect them to stop now. They face another home run prone pitcher tonight in Nick Pivetta with his .248 ISO allowed to left-handed bats. Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and Joc Pederson are all above a .280 ISO, 44% hard hits and 39% fly balls against right-handed pitching. They also all walk over 10% of the time, adding floor to their immense ceilings. The salary on Joc Pederson remains ridiculously low on FD/Yahoo.