DFS Alerts
Grab This Power Hitter While He's Still Cheap
Khris Davis against a bad lefty. Need I say more? He holds a .288 ISO in this platoon split over the past two years, gets a positive ballpark shift, and he’s only $3700 on DraftKings. I’ll continue playing Khrush as a one-off power bat every slate until DK prices him in the low-to-mid $4k range where he belongs.
Dominant Against Southpaws
Khris Davis has struggled a bit this season, partially due to injuries, but his combination of matchup and price tag make him one of Saturday’s top hitting options. Davis hasn’t ever been a high average hitter but has dominated left-handed pitching throughout his career, and despite his overall struggles this season has been no different with a ridiculous 141 wRC+ and .300 ISO against southpaws.
Season Low Price
I understand Maeda hasn’t been especially sharp of late but it’s still going to be difficult to pass on his season low prices across the industry. Maeda is still the owner of an above average strikeout this year (24.7%) and will look to rely on swings and misses to help buoy his fantasy totals against a Padres team that leads the league in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching (26.2%). Dave Roberts’ pitchers never have a long leash but Maeda is cheap enough to help mitigate the likelihood he won’t pitch deep into Saturday’s game.
A Team Full of Salary Savers
Madison Bumgarner is usually not a pitcher I prefer targeting against, but his platoon splits take a significant enough dip that righty bats are viable options at the right price. The Cardinals lineup will be full of them tonight and are all cheap across the industry. Paul Goldschmidt & Paul DeJong stand out the most at $3400 and $3500 respectively on DraftKings. It’s a negative ballpark shift, so I’d temper my expectations on a full 5-man stack, but filling your catcher slot with Yadier Molina and a cheap outfielder with Jose Martinez and/or Tyler O’Neill wouldn’t be out of the question.
Other tagged players: Paul DeJong, Jose Martinez, Yadier Molina, Tyler O'Neill Buy Low On a Quality Arm
I was shocked when I looked at the pricing for today and saw this tag on Maeda. He sits at $6,700 on FD and $7,700 on DK, and that is quite the bargain. He is by no means an ace, but he is still a quality pitcher with an ERA around 4.00 and a 25% strikeout rate to go along with a solid batted ball profile. Maeda is allowing hard contact at a reasonable 30% clip in 2019. A home date with the Padres carries a little more risk these days, but the Padres do rank near the top of the league in team strikeout rate. Maeda is a great choice if you are looking for a value arm tonight, especially on multi-pitcher sites.
Great Value
Three teams on the night slate have implied team totals just above five runs — the Astros (not shocking), the A’s (not shocking), and… the Mets? It’s a testament to how far Jake Arrieta has fallen. Perhaps the Mets are in play as a GPP stack this evening. Cano is also an option as a one-off value, as he has quietly recorded five multi-hit games over New York’s last six contests. He’s nothing sexy at this stage of his career, but he is one of the best values on this slate.
Still Mega Cheap
This is a little bit of a leap of faith, but Goldschmidt remains dirt cheap at $3,000 on FD and $3,400 on DK. If you would have told me a year ago that we could get Goldschmidt at these prices against a lefty, I would have told you that you were nuts. After all, this is a hitter with a .424 career wOBA and 1.015 OPS against lefties. While he has struggled this year, he got on track with some great at-bats last night, including a first inning home run. He is 22-for-66 in his career against Bumgarner, and I’ll opt for the great salary savings here.
Top Pitcher on the Slate
I’ll side with Cole as my top pitcher of the night, though I don’t think it is as clear-cut as it might seem on the surface. In terms of numbers, Cole is the obvious choice, as he owns a 3.28 ERA, 2.88 SIERA, and 2.68 xFIP on the year to go along with a ridiculous 36.8% strikeout rate. Those strikeouts are no fluke, either, as Cole has a 15.8% swinging strike rate this year, which is by far the highest mark of his career. The issue here is that he faces a low strikeout Angels team that gave Justin Verlander some problems on Friday. I don’t mind the pivot to Giolito in GPP formats or to Maeda for salary savings, but I’ll still roll with Cole’s talent.
Start of TEX-MIN will be delayed due to rain Friday
The start of the matchup between the Texas Rangers and Minnesota Twins on Friday evening will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Twins have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Martin Perez not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he does believe that this contest plays following the initial delay, though not completely safe.
As reported by: the Minnesota Twins via Twitter
Yusei Kikuchi owns a .408 xwOBA over the last month
Yusei Kikuchi is down to just an 8.8 K-BB%, 42.2 Z-O-Swing%, with a 17.8 HR/FB. He owns a .408 xwOBA over the last month. ERA and all estimators on the season are now above five with a 7.12 DRA that’s in front of just Gregory Soto on this board. The A’s have mauled LHP this season (110 wRC+, 26.8 Hard-Soft%), including four HRs in their last 9.1 innings against Kikuchi. Despite the negative run environment, the A’s still reach five implied runs tonight, with a lineup which is expected to lean predominantly RH tonight. Batters from that side of the plate own a .360 wOBA and .354 xwOBA against Kikuchi this season. Over the last calendar year, Khris Davis (148 wRC+, .324 ISO) and Matt Chapman (143 wRC+, .251 ISO) have destroyed southpaws, while Mark Canha (120 wRC+, .233 ISO), Marcus Semien (130 wRC+, .188 ISO) and Chad Pinder (118 wRC+, .176 ISO) exhibit some upside as well.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Yusei Kikuchi, Marcus Semien, Mark Canha, Chad Pinder
Value Roller Coaster
Climb aboard the value roller coaster as the sporadic Martin Perez finds himself in a prime home matchup against the Texas Rangers. Left-handed pitchers against the Texas Rangers always find themselves with extreme strikeout upside despite their actual skill-set as Texas’ projected lineup has six hitters in it with strikeout rates north of 23% against southpaws over the last two seasons. Three of those hitters (Choo, Gallo, Guzman) own strikeout rates of 28% or higher. Perez has shown average strikeout ability this season with a 21.9% strikeout rate but the matchup helps boost his upside substantially.
Mega Cash Game Chalk
I’m not entirely sure why Josh Donaldson is only $3,900 on DraftKings but he is and is very likely to end up being mega chalk in cash games. I’m not a believer in Jordan Yamamoto’s skill-set and am fully expecting the Braves to put up a bunch of runs against the Marlins right-handed pitcher who has allowed a ton of elevated (34 GB%) hard-contact (43.4 Hard%) through four starts this season.
Cheap Exposure to Top Offense
The Nationals will look to tee-off against Brad Keller who has been all kinds of bad for the Royals this season with a 5.39 SIERA and a mere 16.3% strikeout rate. With his inability to miss bats, Keller has to rely on accuracy which he hasn’t had this year as his 10.9% walk-rate is one of the highest of Friday’s probable starters. With Matt Adams on the bench, Ryan Zimmerman will hit fifth for the Nationals and should see a handful of valuable at bats with the Nationals owning one of the highest implied run totals (5.9) on the slate.
Right a Lot of Wrongs
Do I really want to roster Julio Teheran on Friday night? No, but the site’s are sure tempting me with his price tag. Essentially all of Teheran’s advanced metrics are screaming, “Stay Away!” – like his 5.27 SIERA – but a matchup against the Marlins can right a lot of wrongs. Miami is poor offensively regardless of who the opposing pitcher is but they have really struggled against right-handed pitchers this season with a 25% strikeout rate and 77 wRC+. Miami just doesn’t have the ability to get very left-handed which is great news for Teheran who has done a good job limiting right-handed hitters throughout his career (.270 wOBA; 3.64 xFIP). I think Teheran is an excellent tournament fade if you are expecting double-digit ownership but still think he can be used as an SP2 in all formats if you’re looking for some salary relief.
Martin Perez has struggled recently, but is in a strong spot tonight (Rangers 83 wRC+, 25.5 K% vs LHP)
Martin Perez has come back down a bit after early season breakout aspirations. He owns an 18.6 K%, 5.08 ERA and 4.68 SIERA over the last month, but has struck out at least six in three of his last four starts and owns a .301 xwOBA over the last month that’s 23 points below his actual mark and most importantly, he’s facing the Rangers, who own an 83 wRC+ and 25.5 K% against LHP, outside Texas. The Rangers also own a 61 wRC+ and 31.2 K% over the last week, which are each bottom two marks on the board. For the season, Perez still owns a reasonable 4.15 ERA with an xwOBA below .300 and an 85 mph aEV that’s best on the board. While he hasn’t been at his best recently, he still might make some sense at less than $8K on either site in this matchup.