DFS Alerts
LHBs have a .403 xwOBA against Adrian Sampson over the last calendar year
Adrian Sampson misses bats at a near average rate (19.2 K%, 9.9 SwStr%) with good control (5.3 BB%), but gets hammered by contact (board high 34 Hard-Soft%, 90.8 mph aEV and 47% 95+ mph EV). His 90.5 Z-Contact% and 42.6 Z-O-Swing% do not bode well either. His 4.16 ERA is not too bad, nor is his 4.53 SIERA, but DRA (5.68) and xwOBA (.356) are much less enthusiastic about his performance. The Twins are one of the top offenses on the board at 5.8 implied runs and rightfully so. LHBs have scolded him over the last calendar year (.374 wOBA, .403 xwOBA), but RHBs have done well enough too (.313 wOBA, .315 xwOBA), making it difficult to spot a poor value in this lineup. Weather concerns could push some players away from this game. Only Luis Arraez (168 wRC+, .137 ISO) and Marwin Gonzalez (95 wRC+, .155 ISO) are below a .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year in this lineup with Gonzalez the low man by wRC+ too. This is a deep and potent lineup that could go off without all that much attention tonight.
Other tagged players: Marwin Gonzalez, Adrian Sampson
Mike Trout has value against an elite, but HR prone pitcher (13 HRs vs RHBs this year)
Justin Verlander leads the board in most major categories tonight, including strikeout rate (32.1%), SIERA (3.30) and xwOBA (.268). The Angels are a contact prone offense (109 wRC+, 20.1 K% vs RHP) that will reduce some of his daily fantasy value. The interesting aspect of this matchup though, is that Verlander owns a .178 BABIP and 89.8 LOB% that make his 2.86 ERA seem a bit unsustainable, mostly because he’s allowed 8.6% Barrels/BBE with a 35 GB%, that’s led to 23 HRs and multiple bombs in four of his last five starts. In fact, he’s failed to allow a HR in just two starts this season. He tied a season high with three HRs allowed the only time he’s faced the Angels this season. The more interesting aspect is that RHBs have 13 of those 23 HRs and a higher wOBA (.276) and xwOBA (.286) against him over the last calendar year. Especially at a cost of $4.5K or higher against a premier pitcher, Mike Trout (203 wRC+, .369 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) can’t be expected to be very popular tonight, but none the less, seems a more attractive play than one might think here against a very HR prone pitcher. Verlander is not a pitcher players should be looking to attack at all, but Trout is certainly a strong exception tonight.
Other tagged players: Justin Verlander Jacob deGrom leads the slate with a 2.16 DRA and a .260 xwOBA over the last month
Jacob deGrom owns the second highest strikeout rate (30.3%), Z-Contact (81.3%), SwStr (14.6%), SIERA (3.35), xOBA (.273) and K-BB (25.1%) on the slate among those with more than two starts. His 2.16 DRA is the only mark below three on the board and his .260 xwOBA over the last month is also best on the board. He had gone seven straight starts allowing two runs or less before allowing three to the Braves last time out and the only time he’s failed to strike out at least seven in this run was at Dodger Stadium. Despite being second in all of those categories previously, as well as the second most expensive pitcher on the board, deGrom is probably the top overall daily fantasy arm today and that’s because the pitcher ahead of him in each of those categories is facing the Angels (109 wRC+, 20.1 K% vs RHP). Meanwhile, the Phillies own just a 92 wRC+, 24.4 K%, and 11.5 Hard-Soft% vs RHP. The left-handed power in the Philadelphia lineup consists of just Bryce Harper (.209 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Jay Bruce (.281 ISO), while LHBs have just a .260 wOBA and xwOBA against deGrom over the last 12 months and that’s his weak side. This is a strong spot for deGrom with the Phillies implied for just 3.6 runs tonight, the second lowest total on the board. DeGrom is tonight’s top overall daily fantasy pitcher.
Vince Velasquez owns a 90.4 mph aEV & 12.9% Barrels/BBE, both second worst on the board
Vince Velasquez has been held to smaller workloads, facing a total of 48 batters over three starts since being reinserted into the rotation, but working his way up to 84 pitches last time out. He should be able to work deeper into today’s game if circumstances call for it. He’s struck out 15 of those 48 batters and his 26.8 K% on the season is actually third best on the board tonight. However, his 44 Z-O-Swing% is also second worst, resulting in far too much hard contact and a 90.4 mph aEV and 12.9% Barrels/BBE that are second worst on the slate as well. Estimators are in line with his 4.73 ERA. Velasquez has been competent against RHBs over the last 12 months (.309 wOBA, .303 xwOBA), but LHBs have pounded him (.380 wOBA, .355 xwOBA). The Mets are expected to line up with three well above average LHBs against RHP, along with Robinson Cano (103 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), who may finally be breaking out of his season long funk with a 157 wRC+ and 56.3 Hard% over the last seven days. Jeff McNeil (145 wRC+, .160 ISO, .348 xwOBA), Michael Conforto (137 wRC+, .251 ISO) and Dominic Smith (137 wRC+, .250 ISO) are all quality bats in this projected lineup for a team implied for 4.5 runs tonight. Pete Alonso (145 wRC+, .299 ISO) is certainly stack worthy with the above batters as well.
Other tagged players: Jeff McNeil, Vince Velasquez, Robinson Cano, Dominic Smith, Pete Alonso Hit The Ball Hard And In The Air
The Dodgers are a loaded offense from both sides of the plate, and tonight they face an average lefty in Eric Lauer. Many of the Dodgers righties face pinch hit risk against lefties, but Justin Turner is a guy who is most likely to stay in the game and continue hitting righties. Against lefties, his hard hits and fly balls are off the charts this season at 51% fly balls and 62% hard hits to go along with his strong contact skills. He is a top play at his salary in all formats.
Affordable Exposure To A Top Offense
The Astros will be facing a pitcher in Felix Pena who is much better against right-handed batters. The Houston righties are plenty good enough to get to him, but the easiest way to get in play on this offense is with the elite contact of Michael Brantley in the middle of the lineup. Pena has allowed a .250 ISO to lefties with Brantley striking out just 8.1% of the time and carrying a 40% hard hit rate against righties.
The First Look For Bats
The Red Sox have the highest team total of the night by a good margin, going into Detroit to face a low strikeout lefty and a bad bullpen. Gregory Soto has struck out just 14.5% of righties this season and hasn’t pitched more than four innings in a game. In the couple at bats they see against Soto, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez stand out. I’ll give the edge to Martinez here with his extreme .463 ISO and .512 wOBA against lefties. He remains a strong option even against the righties in the Detroit bullpen with 44% hard hits and improved contact skills against righties.
PHI @ NYM could provide more offense than expected tonight
According to a large sample of previous games, WeatherEdge (available to premium subscribers) likes offense to be up across the board tonight due to atmospheric conditions in Citi Field as the Phillies take on the Mets. Jacob Degrom is taking the hill for the Mets and while it’s not advisable to stack against him, the opposite is true for Vince Velasquez, who gets the start for the Phillies tonight after splitting time between the pen and rotation this year. Since 2018, Velasquez has a 4.60 ERA / 4.50 xFIP as a starter on the road with a 13.4% K-BB. In that split, Velasquez has been more vulnerable to lefties as he has a .330 xwOBA allowed to LHB compared to a .290 xwOBA vs. RHB. Michael Conforto (.403 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Dominic Smith (.373), Jeff McNeil (.373) and Robinson Cano (.346) are all great left-handed options tonight. Pete Alonso (.372) and JD Davis (.364) are also in play despite not having the platoon advantage. Besides Cano who is just $3.1k on Draftkings, Mets’ bats figure to be contrarian tonight despite a decent 4.94 implied total and they are a good way to differentiate on this slate. If you want to get super contrarian and gain leverage on the field, you could roster a few Phillies’ bats vs. Degrom as he will likely be the heaviest owned SP by a wide margin, though it is certainly not a high probability play as the Phillies currently have just 3.56 implied runs.
Other tagged players: Dominic Smith, Jeff McNeil, Robinson Cano, Pete Alonso, Jacob deGrom, Vince Velasquez
Aces Are Still Aces
The offenses are spread out enough tonight that I don’t see much in the way of must-spends. The ace pitching is not priced up so high that it is tough to reach. At least in cash games, I’ll just stick with the best pitchers, even though we have a solid mid-range tonight. Jacob deGrom is going to get the edge over Justin Verlander tonight with Verlander facing the lowest strikeout team in the league while deGrom is at home against a good, but more middle of the road strikeout opponent in the Phillies. The Phillies top bats are mostly right-handed, where deGrom has a big 33.9% K rate and just 2.9% walks with a .274 wOBA allowed.
Pitcher Looks for Continued Success in Fourth Start Against Same Team
Masahiro Tanaka got demolished in his last start against Boston, but tonight he’ll be taking on an easier Tampa Bay offense, and his price has even dipped on some sites. Tanaka has already faced the Rays offense three times this season, and has racked up 23 Ks with only one run allowed over 22 innings. The Rays rank 10th in the league in K% against righties this season which should give Tanaka some strikeout upside, and priced below the top pitchers on the slate he should be a lower-owned high-upside play for GPPs.
Rookie Pitcher's Good Run Could End Tonight
Jordan Yamamato’s surface numbers look excellent with a 3-0 record and 2.35 ERA in four starts, but his good run could end tonight with his 13.5% BB% against the Braves in Atlanta tonight. The Braves rank first in the league in OPS (.868) and ISO (.244) over the past 30 days, and the team is a strong -190 favorite tonight in a game with a 10 run total. I’ll be targeting the Atlanta power hitters in this one, namely Ronald Acuna, Josh Donaldson, Freddie Freeman, and Austin Riley.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley, Josh Donaldson High Walk Rate Against Powerful Lineup Could Spell Trouble
One of the easiest ways for a pitcher to get blown up is by putting men on base against a power-hitting lineup, and including 2018 statistics no pitcher on this slate has a higher BB/9 (5.28) than Steven Brault, facing the Brewers tonight in Pittsburgh. The Pirates left-hander will also be backed by a bullpen than ranks 22nd in ERA, and not surprisingly, the Brewers are favored in this game with a 10.5 run total. I’ll be targeting mostly the Milwaukee right-handers here – Lorenzo Cain, Keston Hiura, Yasmani Grandal, and Ryan Braun if he is in the lineup, but also Christian Yelich who is always in play in GPPs despite not having the platoon advantage.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Keston Hiura, Lorenzo Cain, Yasmani Grandal Drew Pomeranz is an intriguing, potentially overlooked arm vs. struggling Cardinals
With many safer and more obvious SP options on the slate, it’s very possible that Drew Pomeranz goes overlooked despite a cheap price and good matchup. Pomeranz has admittedly had a rough year that has seen him post a 6.25 ERA, but a 4.43 xFIP, 15.7% K-BB, and 4.43 SIERA prove that he’s had a bit of bad luck. Over the past month, Pomeranz has looked vastly improved with a 3.33 ERA, 3.58 xFIP and 3.67 SIERA with a 31% K rate, 8.2% BB rate and .308 xwOBA allowed. Pomeranz gets a matchup at home in pitcher’s haven Oracle Park tonight versus the Cardinals, who have a league-worst 72 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Overall, the Cardinals have a 93 wRC+ and 20.7% K rate vs. left-handed pitching on the year. The Cardinals projected lineup contains just one batter (Tommy Edman) who has an xwOBA above .335 over the past 14 days. Pomeranz is just $6.8k on Draftkings / $7.3k on Fanduel and has immense upside for his price given his improvements over the past month (especially the 31% K rate) along with the matchup tonight. The Cardinals currently have a 4.25 implied line vs. Pomeranz and the Giants.
Contact prone Pirates (19.7 K% vs RHP) face contact prone pitcher (Zach Davies 15.1 K%)
Zach Davies doesn’t miss many bats (15.1 K%, 7.4 SwStr%), but has generally managed contact well enough that he’s not a pitcher daily fantasy players normally look to attack. His 87 mph aEV and 6.0% Barrels/BBE this year are reflective of that fact. Estimators run well above his 3.24 ERA, largely due to nearly 20% of his runs being unearned (seven of 40). This spot in Pittsburgh is a bit more interesting than most Davies starts though, because he’s facing a contact prone offense (Pirates 19.7 K% vs RHP) that has been hitting the ball very well (113 wRC+, 17.1 K%, 15.5 HR/FB last seven days). The Pirates have a healthy implied run line of 5.25 currently and Davies has developed a platoon issue over the last calendar year (LHBs .346 wOBA, .342 xwOBA). Among the first six batters in the projected lineup, none have a wRC+ below 110 vs RHP over the last calendar year with Josh Bell (163 wRC+, .298 ISO) continuing on his unlikely path toward MVP contention. Bryan Reynolds (145 wRC+, .167 ISO, .349 xwOBA) and Adam Frazier (125 wRC+, .187 ISO) would be additional bats of interest if near the top of the order, as projected. Also important to know that RHBs have a .371 wOBA over the last calendar year as well, though the park naturally suppresses RH power much more than LH.
Other tagged players: Zach Davies, Adam Frazier, Bryan Reynolds Red Sox have highest total on the board tonight vs. Tigers’ Soto
The Red Sox are in Detroit tonight to face Gregory Soto and currently have a whopping 6.72 implied line. Soto has certainly been a pitcher to target with opposing bats so far this year, as he’s posted an 8.44 ERA, 6.33 xFIP and 6.03 SIERA with a 2.9% K-BB, 41.6% hard contact rate, 40.8% FB rate and just a 7.9% SwStr over 21 1/3 innings pitched. Soto has also allowed a .391 xwOBA, an atrocious 14.3% barrel rate and a 90.2 MPH aEV. Boston also projects to have plenty of plate appearances vs. the Tigers’ bullpen, who has also been terrible this year as they have a league-worst 4.70 SIERA from their relief pitchers. JD Martinez (.501 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Xander Bogaerts (.402), Andrew Benintendi (.357, Rafael Devers (.328), Christian Vasquez (.327), Mookie Betts (.310) and Michael Chavis (.307) are all solid options tonight. Jackie Bradley Jr. (.272) is another name to keep in mind as he’s really turned it around after a rough start; over the past month he has a .377 xwOBA and costs just $3.9k on Draftkings. Other nice values include JD Martinez at $4.8k, Andrew Benintendi at $4.3k, Christian Vasquez at $4.3k and Michael Chavis at $4.2k. Vasquez has actually been the Red Sox hottest hitter with a .408 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. Expect Red Sox hitters to carry high ownership across all contests tonight.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, Michael Chavis, Christian Vazquez, Andrew Benintendi