DFS Alerts
Maeda in a great spot tonight despite recent struggles
It’s true that Maeda hasn’t been his normal self his past few starts; over the past 30 days Maeda has a 4.79 ERA, 4.99 SIERA and 5.28 xFIP with an 11.4% K-BB. However, this gives us the opportunity to get Maeda at a price lower than he should be: despite pitching at home in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium in a good matchup with the Padres, Maeda is just $6.7k on Fanduel and $7.7k on Draftkings. Since there are so many good pitching options on this night slate, it’s very possible that Maeda goes underowned even in a great bounce-back spot. In his career, Maeda has been better at home (.276 xwOBA allowed, 27% K rate, 3.34 FIP) as opposed to on the road (.295 xwOBA, 25% K rate, 4.07 FIP). Maeda is also much better against righties (31.6% K rate and .251 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB, 19.9% K rate and .322 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB) and he projects to see just 1 left-handed batter tonight from the Padres lineup. Overall, the Padres have just a 91 wRC+ and 26.2% K rate vs. RHP on the year. The Padres currently have just a 3.77 implied line vs. Maeda and the Dodgers tonight.
Mariners are an intriguing stack option vs. Bassitt tonight
It’s not as easy as usual finding pitchers to stack against on the night slate, as there are a number of good pitchers throwing tonight and not a ton of matchups that stand out. One lineup to consider stacking is the Mariners, who have still managed to swing the bat decently well (106 wRC+ over last 30 days) despite trading a few of their best bats. Though Chris Bassitt has a 3.80 ERA, his estimators indicate regression as he owns a 4.81 xFIP and 4.75 SIERA. Bassitt has also really struggled of late; he’s posted a 4.50 ERA, 5.24 xFIP and 5.29 SIERA with an 8.6% K-BB over the past 30 days. Daniel Vogelbach (.407 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Domingo Santana (.367), JP Crawford (.343), Mac Williamson (.331), Kyle Seager (.320), Omar Narvaez (.307) and Mallex Smith (.280) are all options tonight vs. Bassitt. Smith started the year a bit slow but has slightly improved with a .303 xwOBA over the past month; he projects to leadoff tonight. All Mariners bats are available at an affordable $4.4k or less on Draftkings tonight, on Fanduel they will be priced $3.7k and lower. The Mariners have a 4.41 implied total for this matchup.
Other tagged players: Domingo Santana, Mac Williamson, Kyle Seager, Omar Narvaez, Mallex Smith Nationals have highest total on the slate vs. Royals’ Sparkman
Glenn Sparkman has pitched to a 5.09 ERA / 5.66 xFIP / 5.51 SIERA this year with just a 12.1% K rate, 5.9% BB rate and 6.7% SwStr. He’s also allowed a 42% hard contact rate, a .372 xwOBA, 8.7% barrel rate and a 91.4 MPH aEV. Over the past 30 days, Sparkman has been even worse with a 6.59 ERA, 6.18 xFIP and 6.01 SIERA with a 9.8% K rate, 5.7% SwStr and a .373 xwOBA allowed. Sparkman simply does not miss nearly enough bats to get hitters out, and as a result is one of the safer pitchers to stack against. Anthony Rendon (149 wRC+, .305 ISO vs. RHP this year), Juan Soto (146 wRC+, .228 ISO), Trea Turner (114 wRC+, .230 ISO), Adam Eaton (98 wRC+, .103 ISO) and Gerardo Parra (95 wRC+, .191 ISO) are all good options in the Nats’ projected lineup this afternoon. Ryan Zimmerman (78 wRC+, .203 ISO) has lacked production this year but does own a career 109 wRC+ vs. RHP. Eaton, Zimmerman and Parra will all be available under $4k on Draftkings, while sluggers Rendon, Soto and Turner will all require $5k+ each. Soto has been the Nats’ hottest hitter over the past month with a 151 wRC+. The Nats currently have a 6.73 implied total vs. Sparkman and the Royals and figure to be a pretty popular stack on the afternoon slate.
Other tagged players: Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, Gerardo Parra Stack Them Up
There are not a ton of spots that I love to full stack tonight, but one spot that could end up being a little sneaky is the Mets. They face off against Jake Arreitta, who has really struggled against left handed bats this year giving up a .229 ISO, .392 wOBA, and a 42% hard hit rate. the Mets have a few solid lefties to throw at him in McNeil, Conforto, Smith, and Cano. Then we add in Pete Alonso to the mix who has been hitting righties well this season. I like this spot for the Mets and hopefully we can get them at a lower ownership.
Stack Them Up
There are not a ton of spots that I love to full stack tonight, but one spot that could end up being a little sneaky is the Mets. They face off against Jake Arreitta, who has really struggled against left handed bats this year giving up a .229 ISO, .392 wOBA, and a 42% hard hit rate. the Mets have a few solid lefties to throw at him in McNeil, Conforto, Smith, and Cano. Then we add in Pete Alonso to the mix who has been hitting righties well this season. I like this spot for the Mets and hopefully we can get them at a lower ownership.
Stack Them Up
There are not a ton of spots that I love to full stack tonight, but one spot that could end up being a little sneaky is the Mets. They face off against Jake Arreitta, who has really struggled against left handed bats this year giving up a .229 ISO, .392 wOBA, and a 42% hard hit rate. the Mets have a few solid lefties to throw at him in McNeil, Conforto, Smith, and Cano. Then we add in Pete Alonso to the mix who has been hitting righties well this season. I like this spot for the Mets and hopefully we can get them at a lower ownership.
Stack Them Up
There are not a ton of spots that I love to full stack tonight, but one spot that could end up being a little sneaky is the Mets. They face off against Jake Arreitta, who has really struggled against left handed bats this year giving up a .229 ISO, .392 wOBA, and a 42% hard hit rate. the Mets have a few solid lefties to throw at him in McNeil, Conforto, Smith, and Cano. Then we add in Pete Alonso to the mix who has been hitting righties well this season. I like this spot for the Mets and hopefully we can get them at a lower ownership.
Top Bat To Spend Up On
George Springer is a guy that I will be spending up for today. He has a great matchup against Andrew Heaney, who has strikeout ability but also has struggled with giving up home runs this year. Heaney against righties this season has a .245 ISO, 55% fly ball rate, and a 49% hard hit rate. Springer this season has a .309 ISO, .408 wOBA, and a 45% fly ball rate against left handed pitching. This is a great spot for Springer, who is my top spend up of the day.
SP In A Good Matchup
Kenta Meeda will be massive chalk in tournaments today, so a pivot off of him is Jon Lester. Lester gets a pretty good matchup against the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox this year against left handed pitching strike out the 8th most at 25% and are 22nd in ISO. Lester in his last 5 starts has had at least 6 strikeouts in all 5 games. The matchup is good enough where I could easily see Lester having a good outing at less than half the ownership of Meeda in tournaments.
SP With A Ton Of K Upside
Robbie Ray is a pitcher that I always roster in tournaments because off his great strikeout potential. This year he has a 30.5% strikeout rate with a 13.8% swinging strike rate. In his last 5 games he has had 9+ strikeouts in 3 of those games which is the upside we look for in tournaments. The Rockies only have two real dangerous right handed bats in Story and Arenado so if Ray can get by them he should be able to have a nice outing here.
Brewers lineup has value and upside vs. Agrazal
Brewers bats are priced down more than usual this afternoon, likely due to being in pitcher-friendly PNC Park. However, they get a nice matchup versus Dario Agrazal and have a nice 5.52 implied total. Agrazal has thrown 10 innings in the Bigs over 2 starts thus far, and has a 2.70 ER with a 5.17 xFIP, 5.39 SIERA, 7% SwStr and 7% K-BB. In 55 innings at the AAA level, Agrazal pitched to a 4.25 ERA and 4.40 xFIP with a 14.8% K-BB. Projection systems have Agrazal as anywhere from a 4.50 – 5.50 ERA starter in the majors going forward. With the exception of Christian Yelich at $5.8k, all Brewers bats are $4.9k or less on Draftkings in this matchup. Christian Yelich (.436 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Keston Hiura (.384), Yasmani Grandal (.353), Mike Moustakas (.343), Lorenzo Cain (.317) are all in play this afternoon. One of either Jesus Aguilar (.320) or Eric Thames (.319) will start at first base, Aguilar would be more intriguing given his price is much more affordable ($3.1k) compared to Thames ($4.9k). Cain projects to bat leadoff at just $4.1k, Yasmani Grandal projects to bat 3rd at just $4.3k, and Hiura projects to bat 5th at just $4k. Tyler Saladino has a pitiful .153 xwOBA vs. RHP this year in 21 PA but can also be considered as his price is just $3.1k.
Other tagged players: Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal, Keston Hiura, Lorenzo Cain, Eric Thames, Jesus Aguilar, Tyler Saladino Max Fried is underpriced in a great matchup vs. Miami this afternoon
Max Fried has been a solid pitcher this year as he owns a 4.04 ERA, 3.45 xFIP and 3.96 SIERA with a 22.6% K rate, 7% BB rate and 10.7% SwStr. Fried keeps the ball on the ground at a very impressive rate (55% GB rate, 20.7% FB rate this year) which has really helped him limit damage as he has just a 1.06 HR/9, a .302 xwOBA allowed and a miniscule 3.2% barrel rate. Fried has benefitted from throwing his changeup less this year and adding a new slider, as he changeup was shelled for a .482 xwOBA in 2018, and he’s essentially replaced it with the new slider that has just a .218 xwOBA. Fried has also shown better numbers across the board over the past 30 days with a 2.83 xFIP, 3.58 SIERA and a 26.3% K rate compared to a 8.5% BB rate. Fried gets a matchup at home tonight vs. the Marlins who come into this game with a league-worst 76 wRC+ and 25.7% K rate over the past 30 days. They also own a league-worst 70 wRC+ vs. LHP on the year with a 21.5% K rate. Fried somehow is priced at just $6.5k on Draftkings and is a no-brainer play there who will likely be very highly owned on the afternoon slate. On Fanduel, he’s $8.6k but very much still in play. The Marlins have just a 3.64 implied total vs. Fried and the Braves this afternoon.
Strikeout Upside
If you’re not comfortable with rolling Kenta Maeda as your SP1 on Saturday night then Robbie Ray is my next guy in line (pitching both on multi-SP sites is the move). Ray will toe the rubber against a Rockies offense that has struggled to make contact against left-handed pitching with a 25.9% strikeout rate this season against southpaws. Ray struggles with command at times which can lead to a less than ideal floor but he has one of the highest upsides on the slate regardless of price tag.
A Power Bat In A Perceived Bad Matchup
Kyle Schwarber continues to be underpriced on DraftKings at $3900 and I’ll gladly take advantage against righties where he holds a .253 ISO. Despite the fact the Cubs are currently sporting a 4.9 implied team total, the field may be hesitant to target hitters versus Lucas Giolito, so it may reduce his ownership. Although Giolito has vastly improved his skill set this year, he still generates way too many fly balls (40.8%) and Schwarber’s 41% FB rate sets up perfectly for a high probability home run shot on tonight’s slate.
Lost a Step
Saturday’s main slate is full of strong pitching which means the Mets actually have one of the better matchups of the night against Jake Arrieta. Arrieta has continued to struggle to miss bats as his career has progressed and is now also struggling to generate soft contact. Arrieta’s 16.8 Soft% this season is the lowest of his career and his 7.4 SwStr% is his lowest since 2013. Conforto has killed opposite handed pitching (135 wRC+, .240 ISO) and makes for one of the top outfield options on Saturday’s slate.