DFS Alerts
Attacking a Bad Pitcher
The Rangers could check in as top offense on tonight’s slate. The park in Texas is obviously favorable in June, and Texas has been installed with an implied team total over six runs against Despaigne and the White Sox bullpen. Despaigne is a journeyman righty who has never been anything special at the MLB level, and his lack of strikeout ability is going to make it difficult for him to get outs in Texas. His career strikeout rate over a sizable MLB sample is just 14.2%. Yikes. Lefties are the priority against him, and that plays well with the Texas lineup containing a lot of lefty bats. Shin-Soo Choo is my favorite option, and I have tagged him as a core play. He has looked like the best hitter on this team of late and owns a .402 OBP this month. Expect him to reach base a few times from the top of the lineup against a bad pitcher.
Core Value
Zack Godley has been a better arm for the Diamondbacks out of the bullpen, but it has been a few years since he has had any success as a starter. I also don’t expect him to get very deep into this game. It will largely be a bullpen game. The Giants are coming off a great game on Friday against Taylor Clarke, as they scored 11 runs. That should be their allotment for about a week. Alex Dickerson made a splash with six RBI on Friday, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him get rewarded with a bump in his lineup spot this evening. He’s in play as a value option if that happens. My favorite play here will be Brandon Belt. His price tag is very cheap on every DFS site, and he still profiles fairly well against RHP with a .366 OBP, .357 wOBA, and .238 ISO this year.
He's Back... and Facing a LHP!
It’s easy to forget just how potent this Yankees lineup is, as they have not been healthy as a group essentially since the first two weeks of the season. That health has returned now, as they have seemingly got somebody back from injury every day over the last week or two. The two big power bats in Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are back now, too. This is a team with immense power from top to bottom, and there will be no breaks in this lineup. It’s easy to forget how good Stanton is, but let’s not forget his ability against LHP. For his career, Stanton has a .423 wOBA, a .336 ISO, and a 1.023 OPS against LHP. He also has more lineup protection now than he ever has. He faces Wade Miley tonight. Good luck, Wade. Stanton is an elite play on all sites and in all formats, particularly on DK/FDFT where his price tag is borderline criminal.
Bad Starter + Bad Bullpen = Offense
We haven’t seen much of Odrisamer Despaigne, simply because he’s not a good enough pitcher to stick in major league rotations. Over the past two seasons, he’s struck out just 17% of left-handed batters and that number is all the way down at 11.7% for his career. The White Sox have a below average bullpen behind him and are in the toughest hitting ballpark on this slate. The Rangers lefty power bats look way too cheap for this matchup on almost all sites. My first choice of the cheaper options is Asdrubal Cabrera with his switch hitting capabilities, as Chicago has three lefties in the bullpen behind Despaigne.
More Offense On The Way
The Giants are far from a great offense, but with their 11-run outburst on Friday, they reminded us that there is a little bit of upside left in this team. While they are a bottom tier offense everywhere, the majority of their struggles come at home where they have a .121 ISO. Take them out of San Francisco and it goes up to .168. There’s nothing great about that either, but it’s not the worst in the league by a long stretch. It’s getting pretty cute with splits, but Brandon Belt on the road against right-handed pitching has a .300 ISO and 141 wRC+ this season. He’s a far better player than his salary would suggest.
Elieser Hernandez is a cheap arm with upside versus Phillies
Hernandez had a rough 2018 which saw him post a 5.21 ERA / 5.76 xFIP / 5.28 SIERA with just a 15.9% K rate and 9.5% BB rate over 65 2/3 innings. However, he started 2019 in AAA and made some obvious adjustments, posting a 1.13 ERA with a 2.14 FIP and 4.09 xFIP and an impressive 34.3% K rate with a 7% walk rate over 48 innings. Through 13 2/3 innings so far this year after getting the call up, Hernandez has a 3.95 ERA / 4.63 xFIP / 4.05 SIERA with a 22.4% K rate and 3.5% BB rate and a healthy 12.8% SwStr that might indicate some positive regression in K%. More importantly, Hernandez’s Statcast profile highlights some of his changes: his slider’s spin rate has increased almost 200 RPM this year, and so far has generated a 55.6% whiff rate compared to just 27.9% last year. His four seamer velo has also increased 1.2 MPH, and he’s using the four seamer less and the slider more frequently so far this year. All this had led to a .225 xwOBA, 0% barrel rate and 83.7 aEV so far on the year, albeit in a very small sample. He’ll get a matchup tonight with the Phillies who have an 89 wRC+ and 22.9% K rate vs. RHP on the year. They have been cold lately as they come into this game with just a 28th ranked .283 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Hernandez is available for $6.5k on Draftkings and $7k on Fanduel and is certainly an intriguing play given the price and recent improvements.
Red Sox have highest implied total by far on the afternoon slate
The Red Sox will face an opener (Derek Law) and then project to face Toronto relievers. Sam Gaviglio is projected to be the first pitcher in relief in Fenway Saturday afternoon. Gaviglio has a 4.47 ERA, 4.24 xFIP and 3.58 SIERA on the year over 48 innings, but has accumulated these stats from the bullpen, averaging just 1.933 innings per appearance. In 2018, making 24 of 26 appearances as a starter, Gaviglio posted a 5.31 ERA and 1.53 HR/9. He likely won’t see much more than 3-4 innings against the Red Sox. Red Sox hitters should see a good amount of plate appearances vs. the rest of the Toronto bullpen, who has an 8th-worst 4.85 xFIP and 3rd-worst 2.03 HR/9 over the past 30 days. Mookie Betts (143 wRC+, .241 ISO vs. RHP this year), Xander Bogaerts (139 wRC+, .210 ISO), Rafael Devers (138 wRC+, .221 ISO), Michael Chavis (121 wRC+, .179 ISO), JD Martinez (111 wRC+, .184 ISO), Brock Holt (110 wRC+, .108 ISO), and Andrew Benintendi (108 wRC+, .171 ISO) are all great options that project to be in the Red Sox order today. Mookie Betts has been their hottest hitter with a .415 xwOBA, followed by Xander Bogaerts with a .397 mark. The Red Sox currently have a 6.63 implied total versus the Blue Jays in Fenway.
Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez, Michael Chavis League of His Own
Hyun-Jin Ryu is in a league of his own on Saturday night. Ryu has been excellent this season as the owner of a sparkling 1.26 ERA (3.26 SIERA) and solid 24.4% strikeout rate. Ryu will face a Story-less Rockies lineup that Walker Buehler struck out 16 times last night and that has been below average all season long against left-handed pitching (25.1 K%; 98 wRC+).
Finally Healthy
The Yankees are finally healthy and are once again the most powerful offense in baseball, starting with Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton has absolutely murdered left-handed pitching throughout his career with a 171 wRC+ and .336 ISO. Wade Miley has continued to defy reason this season as the owner of a 3.30 ERA but 4.41 SIERA but will have his hands full with this potent Yankee’s lineup. This is a favorable power matchup for Stanton who should see a handful of high value at bats with runners on base. Stanton’s price tag really sticks out on DraftKings but he’s in play across the industry in all formats.
Some value bats available in Baltimore lineup tonight
Baltimore has a decent matchup with Mike Leake in Seattle tonight and their lineup has some bats with deflated pricing on Draftkings. Leake hasn’t been anything special this year with a 4.14 ERA , 4.68 xFIP and 4.58 SIERA with a 13.3% K-BB, 40.7% hard contact rate, 37.3% FB rate and just an 8% SwStr. His Statcast numbers show more vulnerability as he has allowed a .349 xwOBA, 10.3% barrel rate and an ugly 91.4 MPH aEV so far on the year. Baltimore is one of the league’s worst offenses, but given their pricing and the matchup, they can certainly have some use in lineups tonight. Chance Sisco (.339 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Dwight Smith Jr. (.326), Renato Nunez (.311), Jonathan Villar (.309), Rio Ruiz (.301), Chris Davis (.298) and Anthony Santander (.296) are all potential options. With the exception of Dwight Smith Jr., all these guys are available for $3.8k or less on Draftkings. Villar projects to leadoff at just $3.8k and is always a threat for a steal or two. Rio Ruiz stands out as the best value at a price of just $2.5k. Sisco ($3.3k) and Santander ($3.3k) project to hit in the top half of the lineup and are intriguing plays as well.
Other tagged players: Rio Ruiz, Anthony Santander, Jonathan Villar, Renato Nunez A’s are an intriguing stack tonight in O.co vs. PLR Beeks
The A’s will see an opener tonight versus the Rays (Andrew Kittredge) and then project to face Jalen Beeks. Don’t let Beeks’ 1.86 ERA over the past 30 days fool you; he has a 4.89 SIERA, 4.93 xFIP, 6.3% K-BB over that same time frame. A’s bats are priced down a bit on Draftkings possibly due to being in pitcher friendly O.co, but they’ve been a great stack option on the year vs. LHP with a 2nd best 129 wRC+ vs. LHP this year. Matt Olson (.390 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Khris Davis (.376), Jurickson Profar (.357), Ramon Laureano (.357), Chad Pinder (.355), Matt Chapman (.354), Stephen Piscotty (.353) and Josh Phegley (.341) are all options in the A’s lineup tonight. Marcus Semien (.303) will lead off for the A’s and is also in play. All Oakland bats are priced at just $4.4k or less on Draftkings tonight. Matt Olson has been the A’s hottest hitter over the past 14 days with a .447 xwOBA, followed by Semien with a .354 mark. A’s hitters will also have the benefit of a very hitter-friendly ump calling balls and strikes with Mark Vegner behind the dish. The A’s have a 4.5 implied line tonight and could be a solid an under-the-radar stack option for this slate.
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien, Khris Davis, Chad Pinder, Ramon Laureano, Stephen Piscotty, Josh Phegley Rangers have highest implied total on the board tonight at home vs. Reynaldo Lopez
There should be a ton of runs to go around tonight in Arlington as two bad pitchers will faceoff in the heat at Globe Life Park. The game currently has an O/U of 11.5 and WeatherEdge is expecting an increase in runs scored (WeatherEdge available for premium subscribers). Reynaldo Lopez has been terrible this year with a 6.31 ERA / 5.71 xFIP / 5.10 SIERA with a 11% K-BB, 49.4% FB rate, 39% hard contact rate and 1.59 WHIP. He also has a .372 xwOBA, 10.4% barrel rate and 90.5 MPH aEV on the year. The Rangers lineup is missing some pop without Joey Gallo and Hunter Pence in the order but still has plenty of good options in this matchup. Shin-Soo Choo (140 wRC+, .225 ISO vs. RHP since 2018), Danny Santana (129 wRC+, .227 ISO), Asdrubal Cabrera (117 wRC+, .228 ISO), Willie Calhoun (111 wRC+, .196 ISO), Ronald Guzman (105 wRC+, .215 ISO), Nomar Mazara (.101 wRC+, .165 ISO), and Elvis Andrus (86 wRC+, .128 ISO) are all good options in tonight’s lineup. Santana has been their hottest hitter with a .360 xwOBA over the last 2 weeks, followed by Guzman at .356. All Rangers’ bats are available for $5k or less on Draftkings and will likely be a popular stack tonight. They have a 6.19 implied line vs. Lopez and the White Sox.
Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Ronald Guzman, Shin-soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Elvis Andrus, Willie Calhoun Sandy Alcantara has highest 30-day SIERA on the board tonight at 5.25
Sandy Alcantara has a 3.73 ERA, but has otherwise been a bad pitcher this year as proven by his 5.01 xFIP, 5.41 SIERA, and 5.8% K-BB. Alcantara does do some things well on the mound; he has a 47% GB rate, just a 4.8% barrel rate and an 86 MPH aEV on the year. However, he doesn’t miss enough bats and allows too many baserunners to keep the ERA he currently has. Alcantara has also been much worse on the road over 116 innings with the Marlins since 2018: he’s allowed a .342 xwOBA in away games compared to a .306 xwOBA at home. The Phillies currently have 5.18 implied runs at home tonight and have some good options in their lineup. JT Realmuto (.364 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Bryce Harper (.353), Scott Kingery (.350), Jay Bruce (.338), Rhys Hoskins (.326), Cesar Hernandez (.3325) and Jean Segura (.308) are all solid options in Philly’s lineup tonight. Scott Kingery has been their hottest hitter with a .386 xwOBA over the past 14 days. The Phillies will also benefit from facing a weak Miami bullpen that has a 3rd worst 4.73 SIERA / 2nd worst 5.32 xFIP over the past 30 days.
Other tagged players: Scott Kingery, Rhys Hoskins, Cesar Hernandez, Jean Segura, J.T. Realmuto, Jay Bruce, Sandy Alcantara James Paxton may still be compromised (4.61 SIERA & FIP, .334 xwOBA) since return from IL
Brad Peacock and James Paxton sounds like a pitcher’s duel or at least a high upside daily fantasy pitching matchup. They have a combined 54.7 K% with neither owning an xwOBA above .300. Take a closer look though. Peacock combines just an 8.8 SwStr% with a 90 mph aEV, but somehow has allowed just 6.7% Barrels/BBE and struck out 24.2% of batters faced. Over the last month, he’s down to a 21.2 K% with a 4.90 FIP even though his ERA has remained below four. On the season, he has a 5.01 DRA. There appears to be some luck in his game. However, since he has a massive platoon split over the last calendar year (RHBs .251 wOBA, LHBS .373), the best bets to exploit this potential edge appear to be Brett Gardner (97 wRC+, 188 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), if out of the leadoff spot, Aaron Hicks (133 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Didi Gregorius (125 wRC+, .232 ISO). With Aaron Judge (113 wRC+, .174 ISO) expected back tonight, the Yankee lineup could lean predominantly right-handed and if this is the case, it would be something more in Peacock’s favor, although Yankee righties hit same-handed pitching extremely well.
James Paxton is one of the highest upside pitchers in the league, but does not escape scrutiny here either. He rebounded from troublesome starts against the Mets and Blue Jays to fan seven White Sox in six innings with two runs, but his 5.71 ERA since returning comes with a 4.61 SIERA and FIP, along with a .334 xwOBA. He has a 41.4% 95+ mph EV mark on the season and even admitted that his knee still wasn’t 100% upon returning from the DL. A Houston lineup not at full strength still has enough right-handed pop to punish a compromised pitcher (RHBs have a .304 wOBA against Paxton last calendar year). Jose Altuve (158 wRC+, .255 ISO) is back, joining Alex Bregman (180 wRC+, .313 ISO), Yulieski Gurriel (135 wRC+, .210 ISO), Robinson Chirinos (117 wRC+, .194 ISO) and even Jake Marisnick (176 wRC+, .286 ISO) in southpaw destruction over the last 12 months. Important to note that the wind is blowing out to right tonight, giving a dangerous park a further run and power boost tonight.
Potent Lineup Could Add Another Big Power Bat Tonight
We’ve been waiting all season to see the Yankees at close to full strength, and with Giancarlo Stanton returning earlier this week and Aaron Judge possibly returning tonight, the Yankees could again be a murderers’ row for pitchers. The Yankees have a 5+ run total against Brad Peacock and the Astros tonight, and few teams have a lineup with as much power potential now that the team has added Edwin Encarnacion to the mix along with Gary Sanchez and Luke Voit. The Yankees already rank 7th in slugging percentage and 9th in ISO this season, and it will be interesting to see if those numbers move up with the lineup back to full strength.
Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez, Edwin Encarnacion, Luke Voit