DFS Alerts
Home Team Faces Mystery Starter and Disaster Bullpen
I would love to put some good statistics in here highlighting whatever weaknesses the pitcher taking on the Mariners offense has tonight, but with the Orioles sending a number of pitchers (John Means, Paul Fry, and Dan Straily) to the Injured List or minors yesterday, it’s not clear who will start tonight’s game in Seattle. It will likely be a bullpen game, and that could be a disaster for an Orioles bullpen that has put up a 6.28 ERA with 63 HRs allowed this season over 296 innings. Not yet knowing who will get the platoon advantage, I’ll be targeting the Seattle power hitters in this one including Dan Vogelbach, Domingo Santana, and Kyle Seager.
Other tagged players: Kyle Seager, Domingo Santana
High-Strikeout Pitcher Gets Platoon Advantage Against Weak Lineup
Chris Sale will likely draw a lot of the ownership tonight, but factoring in matchup Trevor Bauer is right there with Sale for upside tonight. Bauer takes on a Tigers offense that ranks 1st in the league in K% and 29th in the league in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season due to their predominantly right-handed lineup, a matchup that Bauer will try to exploit with his 29.6 K% against righties this season.
Ground balls (53.7%) and K-BB (10.9%) were down for Dallas Keuchel last year
Dallas Keuchel makes his Braves and 2019 debut in Washington tonight. While some may still be considering him some kind of Ace, he had just a 10.9 K-BB% with a 3.74 ERA and matching estimators last year with a 53.7 GB% that was his lowest since his 2012 debut. He’s also been a much more useful real life than daily fantasy pitcher for quite a while now (below a 14 K-BB% three straight years). If Keuchel can continue to generate weak ground balls for a solid Atlanta infield, he should be help this team, but he’s had just two tune up starts, both below AAA and generated just a 44 GB% with a 12.9 K% in his last one in AA. Keuchel did pitch seven innings in each start, so stamina is not an issue here, but RHBs homered 15 times against him last season with just a 16.3 K%. Washington bats may be the way to go here. Even if players aren’t likely to roster Keuchel here, they are more likely to avoid him altogether than attack him. Not only are the Nationals hot (126 wRC+, 18.4 K%, 23.1 HR/FB last seven days), but they’ve also punished LHP all season long (118 wRC+, 16.5 HR/FB). Trea Turner (131 wRC+, .161 ISO), Anthony Rendon (168 wRC+, .359 ISO) and Howie Kendrick (183 wRC+, .276 ISO) have all done serious damage against southpaws over the last year, but also consider Victor Robles (129 wRC+, .222 ISO) if he somehow sneaks his way into the top half of this lineup.
Other tagged players: Victor Robles, Howie Kendrick, Trea Turner, Dallas Keuchel
No Way To Get Past These Lefties
Jeff Samardzija has been just good enough to survive at home, but get him away from San Francisco and facing good lefties, and there’s just not much he can do. He has allowed a .210 ISO on 19.8% strikeouts with 47% fly balls and 38% hard hits allowed to lefties this season. I love Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar in tournaments, but the more reasonable salary on DK/FDRFT/Yahoo belongs to David Peralta with his .250 ISO, .393 wOBA and 40% hard hits against righties. He’s a cash game option for me and a key part of any Arizona stack.
Do What You Have To Do
This is a tricky situation with the pricing on DK/FDRFT. Aaron Nola has simply not been great this season. Every single data point has regressed significantly since last season, with his strikeouts down to 25.1% and his walks up to 10%. We can still live with 25% strikeouts against this Marlins team, and as much as I don’t want to have to trust in Nola in cash games, I just can’t get around it. I would say that if you’re multi-entering tournaments, I would not be going all-in on a likely chalky pitcher with this skill set, but in cash games, just do what you have to do.
King Of The Aces
We have a loaded pitching slate tonight, but there is still just one ace who stands all alone up top. Chris Sale’s 35.7% strikeout rate is heads and shoulders above the next closest, which is Matt Boyd at 30.7%. Sale has double digit strikeouts in eight of his last nine starts, which is just unheard of. In cash games, even at this high salary, it is overthinking to try and find a reason to fade him.
Balls Will Be Flying
The White Sox Reynaldo Lopez has allowed 48% fly balls to left-handed batters with just 17.6% strikeouts and 13.7% walks. This means we’re likely to see both base runners and balls hit in the air in Texas. Nomar Mazara’s .150 ISO doesn’t jump out as much as some of his teammates, but his 50.4% hard hit rate against righties leads the team and his middle of the order lineup spot and reasonable salary on DK/FDRFT/FD make him a play for me in all formats.
Underwhelming
The entire St. Louis Cardinals offense has been underwhelming for the majority of the season and as a result most of their hitters are priced south of $4K on DraftKings. Griffin Canning has been impressive at missing bats this season (16.1 SwStr%) but he still represents a fine matchup for Carpenter who owns a 136 wRC+ and .202 ISO against right-handed pitching for his career.
Cheap Power
Dietrich has cooled off from his power surge and as a result he remains priced under $3K on FanDuel. This is an extremely underrated power spot for Dietrich against the fly balling Chase Anderson in hitter friendly Miller Park. Dietrich is a tad too expensive on DraftKings to consider a “value” option but he’s an elite tournament option across the industry regardless of his price tag.
Elite Context
Things that Yonder Alonso is not: a stellar hitter. But…who cares? Context is everything for the low-priced Alonso who is expected to hit in the middle of the order for a White Sox squad traveling to hitter friendly GlobeLife Park in Arlington where they’ll take on righty Ariel Jurado. The reality is that Alonso is at best an average hitter with the platoon against an at best average pitcher but the context is elite. Alonso is a fine salary relief option that can be used in all formats.
Advantageous Platoon Splits
The Padres strikeout a bunch. San Diego is tied for the highest strikeout rate in the league (26.4%) against right-handed pitching and have been below average offensively with an 89 wRC+. San Diego struggles against right-handed pitching because their lineup is so right-handed, with just two left-handed hitters in their projected lineup. Over the last two seasons, Joe Musgrove has had significantly more success against right-handed hitters with a respectable 23.1% strikeout rate and .277 wOBA. Musgrove is a legitimate cash game SP2 option on multi-SP sites but is best reserved for GPPs on sites where you’re only required to roster one pitcher.
Buehler in a great spot at home vs. Rockies
Buehler has followed up his breakout 2018 with another great year so far in 2019; he’s posted a 3.06 ERA, 3.45 xFIP and 3.62 SIERA with a 26.1% K rate, 4% BB rate, a 35% FB rate and a. 11.3% SwStr. Statcast has him at a .282 xwOBA allowed on the year with a 6.7% barrel rate and 88.7 MPH aEV. Buehler has gone 7+ innings in all of his last 3 starts, and has gone at least 6 innings in 7 of his last 8 starts as the Dodgers have let him work up to 100 pitches per game after having him on a shorter leash earlier in the year. He has a 2.67 xFIP, 2.97 SIERA, 30.4% K rate and 2.4% BB rate over the past 30 days. He will face the Rockies tonight, who are routinely terrible on the road as they have a 75 wRC+ and 26.6% K rate in away games this year; they also had a 78 wRC+ on the road in 2018 and it’s nothing new for them to struggle when away from Coors. Buehler also projects to have plus pitch framer Austin Barnes behind the plate for this matchup. Buehler has an affordable price of $10.8k on Draftkings and $11.2k on Fanduel and will likely be a decently popular play tonight across the industry. The Rockies currently have just a 3.16 implied line versus Buehler and the Dodgers Friday night.
Matt Boyd has been an ace but continues to see affordable pricing
Matt Boyd was a surprise breakout early in the year after getting off to a very hot start, but he’s never really cooled down and there’s nothing in his profile to suggest that he’ll cool off anytime soon. He’s got a 3.35 ERA / 3.40 xFIP / 3.26 SIERA to go with a stellar 26% K-BB (30.7% K rate) and a very solid 13.5% SwStr. He’s also allowed just a .282 xwOBA and 7.4% barrel rate on the year. Showing no signs of slowing down, over the past 30 days he has a 2.65 xFIP / 2.96 SIERA with a 32.2% K rate and just a 3.3% BB rate. Boyd gets a matchup with the Indians tonight, who have just an 85 wRC+ and 21.3% K rate on the year versus left-handed pitching. They have begun to swing the bats better and do have a .332 xwOBA as a team over the past 2 weeks. The Indians currently have a 4.71 implied line which feels entirely too high given how well Boyd has pitched this year. Boyd is just $10k on Fanduel and $9.7k on Draftkings and continues to be priced below pitchers with similar profiles.
Madison Bumgarner's 89.7 mph aEV and 31.4 Hard-Soft% may not fare well vs tough Dodger lineup
Madison Bumgarner’s 5.2 BB% is his strongest quality this year, but his 31.4 Hard-Soft% and 89.7 mph aEV may not fare well against the Dodgers (109 wRC+, 11 K-BB%, 29.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP). His 3.87 ERA matches estimators right around four with a 4.49 DRA a bit higher. While Bumgarner hasn’t really fared poorly against RHBs over the last calendar year (.308 wOBA), they do have a .340 xwOBA and 44.6 Hard% against him with just a 39.5 GB% over that span. Dodger bats are on the bottom half of the board at 4.29 implied runs tonight, which makes them a strong contrarian play with Enrique Hernandez (109 wRC+, .166 ISO) the only one among the first six in the projected order below a 115 wRC+ or .210 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year and that includes the two lefties (Cody Bellinger & Max Muncy).
Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Madison Bumgarner Dylan Bundy's 29.4% 95+ mph EV is best on the board among those with more than four starts
Dylan Bundy is still kind of a launching pad. He’s allowed 15 HRs in 14 starts with a 16.3 HR/FB, but it’s at least stomachable when looking at his other numbers and matchup for tonight. The strikeout rate is up to 24.2% with a 13.3 SwStr% and he’s not even being hit that hard as suggested by an 11.2 Hard-Soft% with only 29.4% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. Nobody else on the board with more than four starts is below 30% 95+ mph EV. Tonight, Bundy gets out of the power friendly Camden Yards and travels to a more power suppressing park in Seattle and though the Mariners do have a 109 wRC+ and 16.7 HR/FB vs RHP, they’ve made recent reductions to the middle of their lineup. In fact, tonight’s projected lineup has a very manageable .319 wOBA, .169 ISO and 24.1 K% vs RHP. In this spot, Bundy costs less than $8K on either site and may be one of the top values on the board despite the risk.