DFS Alerts
DET-KCR will be delayed due to threat of inclement weather Wednesday
The start of the matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals on Wednesday evening will be delayed due to inclement weather approaching the stadium. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Royals have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Danny Duffy and Daniel Norris not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, all players should be safe to deploy for all formats following this initial delay.
As reported by: Cody Tapp via Twitter Other tagged players: Daniel Norris
Brandon Woodruff has the second highest strikeout rate on the board (29.5%)
The game in Houston is an interesting daily fantasy spot. Of course, Justin Verlander (30.9 K%, 2.40 ERA, 3.30 SIERA, 2.44 DRA, .267 xwOBA) is facing an offense with a 25 K% in a negative run environment. That much is obvious. However, there’s also only one other pitcher above a 25% strikeout rate on the slate and that’s Brandon Woodruff (29.5 K%, 3.87 ERA, 3.49 SIERA, 2.49 DRA, .294 xwOBA), who’s ERA is well above his estimators. Nor will Woodruff be facing the best Houston lineup. This one may have fewer strikeouts at the top, but it includes names like Reddick and Gurriel instead of Springer, Altuve, and Correa. Woodruff costs just $7.6K on DraftKings, which is far too cheap. One name to watch out for is Yordan Alvarez, who appears to be Houston’s next big star. Coming off a 175 wRC+ with 23 HRs already at AAA this year, he’s already swatted his first two major league HRs in his first two games. Alvarez is still affordably $2.9K on FanDuel ($4K on DraftKings).
Other tagged players: Justin Verlander, Yordan Alvarez
David Hess's 91 mph aEV and 14% Barrels/BBE are both bottom 5% of the league
The Blue Jays have elected to place an opener in front of Edwin Jackson, but the Orioles are still inclined to get the beating right out of the way, sending David Hess out to start tonight. It’s been 10 starts since Hess last left a game where the opponents had fewer than three runs on the board and he’s allowed 20 HRs over those 10 starts. His 21.1 HR/FB is more than double his 9.9 K-BB%. His 45.6 Z-O-Swing% is second worst on the board tonight. A 7.08 ERA is not too far above a 6.90 FIP and even below his 8.93 DRA. His .394 xwOBA (91 mph aEV and 14% Barrels/BBE are both bottom 5% of the league) is exceeded only by Jackson and Mitch Keller, both above .400. Hess has been pummeled by batters from either side of the plate for at least a .340 wOBA and xwOBA with a fly ball rate below 40% over the last 12 months, giving us a lot to like in an affordable Toronto lineup tied with the Orioles at 5.25 runs, second most on the board. Cavan Biggio (73 wRC+, .120 ISO vs RHP) leads off. His numbers don’t look strong, but 62.5% of his contact against RHP has been hit hard. Justin Smoak (148 wRC+, .274 ISO), Rowdy Telles (109 wRC+, .234 ISO), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (110 wRC+, .192 ISO), Randal Grichuk (100 wRC+, .236 ISO), and Lourdes Gurriel (103 wRC+, 185 ISO) have all been formidable against RHP over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Justin Smoak, Rowdy Tellez, Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel, David Hess Great Value On FanDuel
Lucchesi is a really nice value on FanDuel tonight. He’s one of my favorite pitchers on this slate, and the price on FanDuel puts him in play in all formats tonight. Lucchesi has a 3.72 xFIP with a 24.4% strikeout rate on the season. The Giants rank last in team wOBA and last in wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. This is a great ballpark for pitchers and with the Giants having the second fewest home runs against left-handed pitching, this seems like a safer spot for Lucchesi.
Bad Offenses in Good Spots
Four of the least exciting teams in the league all have favorable matchups tonight with the Blue Jays-Orioles and Tigers-Royals. Overall, the hitting environment in Baltimore puts that game on top of the list, but when looking for one individual bat, Nick Castellanos has a skill set that stands out against a low strikeout fly ball pitcher like Danny Duffy. Since the start of 2018, Castellanos has a high 27% line drive rate with 49% hard hits and a .422 wOBA against lefties. His salary is more than reasonable on all sites for all formats tonight.
Right-Handed Heavy Offense
He’s projected to face six righties tonight. The projected starting lineup has a .119 ISO with a .311 wOBA with a 22.2% strikeout against right-handed pitching this season. The Marlins are last in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against righties this season. Mikolas has a .272 wOBA with a .175 ISO against righties. Mikolas has a 1.9% walk rate with a 53.4% ground ball rate and a 11% hard to soft contact ratio against right-handed hitters.
Run Back That Lefty Power
This Arizona team crushed a fly ball lefty in this park on Monday, and while Zach Eflin may not be quite as prone to lefty power as Jerad Eickhoff, it looks like a pretty similar situation. Eflin is striking out a below average 18.5% of lefties this season while allowing 46% fly balls and 41% hard hits with a .242 ISO. The line drives and hard hits from Peralta have given him a .267 ISO and .400 wOBA against righties this season and I love this matchup for him in both cash games and tournaments.
The Power Keeps Coming
The Twins are showing no signs of stopping their home run barrage this season. Tonight they face a strike throwing lefty and a bad Mariners bullpen and I’ll start by looking for right-handed power. That brings us straight to Nelson Cruz who has a goofy 81% hard hit rate in a small sample this season against lefties and going back to the start of 2018, he’s at a .318 ISO on 57% hard hits against lefties. He hits in the middle of one of the league’s top offenses and is a strong play in all formats tonight.
Upside and Value
The Blue Jays and Orioles are not good baseball teams and have been hit or miss offensively all year long, but we could see a shootout when the two teams face off tonight. After all, the game has a Vegas total of 10 1/2 runs! The Orioles get to take their hacks against journeyman Edwin Jackson, who is pitching for his 59th major league team in his 46th season. While I’m being facetious there, it’s not TOO far from the truth. Jackson has no business in a major league rotation right now, with an ERA of 11.90 over his five starts with the Blue Jays. He’s fooling nobody at this point in his career. The middle of the order bats like Mancini and Nunez are a fine place to start, and I like Rio Ruiz as a potential value play here. If you are playing on DraftKings, give Chance Sisco a look at an abysmal catcher position, especially if he lands in the middle of the lineup. Baltimore is a great GPP stack in this spot.
Other tagged players: Renato Nunez, Trey Mancini
Upside Stack For Power
The Blue Jays and Orioles are not good baseball teams and have been hit or miss offensively all year long, but we could see a shootout when the two teams face off tonight. The Blue Jays get to take their hacks against David Hess, an underwhelming fly ball pitcher who is very much prone to the long ball. Power bats like Guerrero and Grichuk would be my first choices here, and I like the 3 or 4-man GPP stack approach. Tellez provides some potential value, and there are a number of ways to make this work. It’s all going to be about pegging the right power bats that are able to do some extra-base hit damage.
Other tagged players: Randal Grichuk, Rowdy Tellez The Ideal Matchup
Miles Mikolas is a better real life pitcher than a DFS pitcher, relying on control and ground balls to righties ahead of strikeouts. As much as I prefer to go for high strikeout pitchers, this matchup is just ideal for Mikolas at a very low salary. He has a 53% ground ball rate with just 1.9% walks against right-handed batters, and this Miami lineup has low power with six righties who have ground ball rates over 50%. He could find some very easy innings here allowing him to pitch deep into the game, and he’s priced down to where we don’t need a ton of strikeouts to be useful.
Get Those Strikeouts
There are three pitchers at the top of the heap tonight with Justin Verlander, Mike Soroka and Jose Berrios. As great as Soroka has been and as solid as the control from Berrios, there is a massive gap in strikeout ability between these three. Both Berrios and Soroka are sitting around an average 22-23% K rate while Verlander is all the way up at 30.9% along with his similarly strong control. While there is power risk against Milwaukee, Verlander has been far more dominant against lefties with a 38.2% K rate to offset that lefty power. At similar salaries, I’ll go for the strikeouts first in every format on every site tonight.
A Pivot Off The Aces
If you are looking for a pivot away from the top few pitchers on tonight’s slate, give Lucchesi a peek. He owns a SIERA and xFIP under 4.00 this season with above average strikeouts and reasonable command. He steps into a good spot here in a favorable pitchers’ park against a Giants offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. He’s a fine play either as a stand alone option or as an SP #2 if you are paying up for two pitchers on the multi-pitcher sites.
Top Pitcher on the Board
Justin Verlander does draw a difficult matchup tonight against a potent Brewers offense, but Verlander still leads the pack in terms of pitching options on this slate. There are some strikeouts to be had in this Milwaukee lineup, and Veralnder owns a tidy 2.40 ERA and a 31% strikeout rate this year. He also doesn’t beat himself with walks, and I can only hope that the difficult matchup keeps his GPP ownership in check to some degree. In 2019, pitching upside is all about strikeouts, and Verlander delivers in that regard.
The Power Upside Is Legit
Alvarez was called up on Sunday, and hit a home run in his first Major League game. He has a .399 ISO with a 1.184 OPS in 213 at bats in AAA this season. He’s hit 23 home runs in that span. He’s cheap across the industry, which makes him one of my favorite value plays on this slate. Peralta has some upside, but he struggles with left-handed hitters. He has a.353 wOBA with a .176 ISO and a 25% hard to soft contact ratio against left-handed hitters this season.