DFS Alerts
Gabriel Ynoa (17.6 HR/FB) faces Jays with wind blowing out in Baltimore
Gabriel Ynoa has 10 Ks to six walks with three HRs over his three starts (15 IP). On the season, including relief appearances, he has a 17.6 HR/FB with a 50.5 GB% and contact allowed slightly worse than average (89.3 mph aEV, 7.7% Barrels/BBE). None of this is too bad with a .323 xwOBA and 4.48 SIERA that really aren’t too much worse than league average. One might even say he’s in a strong spot tonight, considering Toronto’s 76 wRC+ and 25.2 K% vs RHP this year. However, conditions are lining up to make this a potentially superior offensive spot tonight. The wind is blowing out to center in this game, which may mean a HR boost, if not necessarily a significant run boost and giving away a premium subscription secret, there’s an extremely hitter friendly umpire behind the plate in this one. Ynoa has faced 72 batters from either side of the plate this year with RHBs having the higher .392 wOBA and .212 ISO against him. Not a large sample, but enough to make Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (117 wRC+, 193 ISO vs RHP), Lourdes Gurriel (105 wRC+, .181 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and either Justin Smoak (149 wRC+, .275 ISO) or Rowdy Tellez (111 wRC+, .245 ISO) at first base bats of interest tonight for a Toronto lineup that’s just outside the top five at 4.75 implied runs.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Rowdy Tellez, Lourdes Gurriel, Gabriel Ynoa
Risk/Reward GPP Appeal
Greinke will likely get over-looked on tonight’s slate given the presence of more stable aces like deGrom and Kershaw, and I like him as a reasonable GPP pivot. Greinke never walks anyone, so the upside is there. It’s all about whether or not he will get the good or bad variance of the BABIP gods. The Nationals have been surprisingly underwhelming against RHP this year, and Greinke owns quietly impressive metrics with a respectable 24.4% strikeout rate this year. Give him a look in your GPP builds, especially on multi-pitcher sites.
Run It Back
Rowdy Tellez was the ticket to a big night on Wednesday, and while we can’t expect another grand slam, his salary remains too low for his power in this ballpark. Gabriel Ynoa’s splits strongly favor left-handed bats, where he has shown no ability to limit fly balls or hard hits. Tellez is a strikeout risk, but that is baked into the salary and not high enough to outweigh his .245 ISO, 24% line drives and 43% hard hits.
Late Night Salary Savers
The Cubs-Dodgers game could go a little overlooked as the lone late night game, and with a much lower total than most of the other games on the slate. But we have some very strong salary options with the Dodgers righties against Jon Lester. Lester is a decent pitcher, but is just throwing a lot of strikes with no ability to control batted balls. The Dodgers have five batters in the middle of the lineup with hard hit rates over 46% so far this season against left-handed pitching. IN 93 PA against lefties, Enrique Hernandez has a 51% hard hit rate with just 17% strikeouts, and going back to the larger sample of 2018-2019, the strikeouts remain low with a .181 ISO from his 42% fly balls and hard hits. He is multi-position eligible on DK along with teammate Chris Taylor and playable in all formats.
Lock and Load
The Yankees rival Coors Field as the top offense of the night, and with the splits of Ivan Nova, I would call the Yankees lefties top priorities on this slate. I love the salary on Didi Gregorius, but using him gets in the way of Trevor Story, so I’ll start with Aaron Hicks as the core option for New York. Ivan Nova has struck out an embarrassingly low 12.6% of lefties this season with just barely above average 47% ground balls and no ability to limit hard contact. Hicks’ elite plate skills with more walks than strikeouts combined with power from his high fly ball rate give him upside from all angles tonight. He can hit for power if he gets pitches to hit, or can find himself on base and scoring runs with all the power behind him in the lineup.
No Need To Get Tricky Tonight
There are good values all over the place tonight, and it is not going to be hard to get an expensive bat or two into your lineups. Facing a strike throwing lefty who allows hard hits and fly balls is too good to pass up for Trevor Story. Matt Strahm is not a bad pitcher by any means, certainly good enough that I wouldn’t call the Rockies a must-stack, but with 42% fly balls and a 48% hard hit rate allowed to righties, Story’s power upside is through the roof tonight.
Can't Pass On This Salary
Jack Flaherty doesn’t have the consistency of the top aces, but his upside is similar, and after one bad start, his salary has been way too far decreased for a trip to New York. The 25.7% strikeouts of Flaherty are the 4th highest mark on this slate, trailing only the three aces who are significantly higher priced. He is dominant against righties and the Mets have only three left-handed bats to throw at him. On FD, I would still recommend paying up in cash games, but Flaherty is viable in all formats, while on DK/FDRFT, I view him as the clear SP2 for cash games and a very chalky tournament option, but a scary fade at any ownership level.
Choose Your Ace
There are at least five pitchers that qualify as real-life aces on the mound tonight, but the two that stand out for DFS purposes are Jacob deGrom and Matt Boyd. I expect deGrom to be the more popular of the two, and I really can’t find any fault with him. But, every number I look at says that Matt Boyd is slightly ahead of him tonight. Both have been consistent, but Boyd even more so. The strikeout rate favors Boyd at 30.5% vs 29.8%. The walk rate is lower for Boyd at 4.4% vs 6.4%. The SIERA and ERA are both lower for Boyd and he faces an easier opponent tonight with the Royals. I would not fault you at all for siding with the longer track record of ace-dom with deGrom, but I have Boyd at the top of my list tonight.
An Elite Point Per Dollar Arm
His results have very much been up and down this season, but this is still a pitcher with a reasonably solid 3.97 xFIP and a strikeout rate of nearly 26% this season. He has been victimized by an abnormally high HR/FB rate, and I expect his results to improve sooner rather than later. A nice matchup against the Mets awaits this evening, and Flaherty is now priced below $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. This is a fine spot to buy low, and I think he will focus in with a matchup against Jacob deGrom.
Top Play of the Night
With Nolan Arenado uncertain for tonight after leaving yesterday’s game early, that leaves Story as the clear top bat from a game at Coors Field. His career home splits against LHP are something to behold, with a .452 wOBA, .409 ISO, and 1.113 OPS. Matt Strahm is a very talented pitcher, but this is a tough spot to ask him to come in and do well, especially since he hasn’t pitched in ten days and got roughed up by the Marlins in his last start. The Rockies don’t line up that well with Strahm given their LH-heavy everyday lineup, but they still have a team total above six runs. Story is an obvious play, and the GPP stack makes sense, especially if ownership is down.
High Upside Stack In a Great Spot
Ivan Nova has an ERA over 6.00 this year, and his line drive rate has risen 5% from a year ago. His struggles have been pronounced against hitters from both sides of the plate, as RHBs have a .357 wOBA and LHBs have a .407 wOBA against him this year. The Yankees are in a great spot here. I’ll start with the lefties as part of any stack, which makes Gregorius and Hicks the priority options. You can sprinkle in a few RHBs as well, given the power upside that guys like Sanchez and Torres bring to the table.
Other tagged players: Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres Love The Home Run Upside
When picking on Homer Bailey, I like hitters with high hard-hit rates, and I like them to have a high fly ball rate. Brandon Dixon really fits that build for this matchup, and I don’t think a lot of people will be playing him tonight. Dixon has a .200 ISO with a 50% hard-hit rate and a 45% fly ball rate against right-handed pitchers this season. Bailey has a 48.1% hard-hit rate against righties, and he’s usually bailed out by generating ground balls. Dixon is one of my favorite value plays on this slate.
Dig A Little Deeper
Tellez was great on Wednesday and I really like the idea of going back to the well on him tonight. Ynoa has a .287 wOBA against lefties compared to his .392 wOBA against righties. I hope that scares people off the lefties in this lineup. Ynoa has a 44.2% fly ball rate with a 44.2% hard-hit rate against lefties this season. This is a nice high upside for some of the power lefties in this lineup. Ynoa didn’t pitch in the Majors in 2018, but he really struggled with lefties in 2017 as well.
Plus Ballpark And Weather
It’s been a hit or miss season for Flaherty, but that’s not going to stop me from playing him in this spot. He has a 3.81 xFIP with a 25.7% strikeout rate on the season, and he’s been a lot better against right-handed hitters. The Mets project to have five right-handed hitters and the pitchers spot tonight. Flaherty has a .269 wOBA with a .134 ISO and a 31.5% strikeout rate against righties. I worry about the left-handed hitters, but at this price, I’m willing to roll the dice.
Large Field GPP Play
I don’t typically like to take pitchers in Coors, but I really like the upside for Gray tonight. The Padres have some really good power bats, but this projected starting lineup has a 27.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. I think Gray will give up a couple of runs if not more in this game, but I also think he has 8+ strikeout upside. Gray has a 29.2% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. It’s not something I would do in cash games, but in a large field tournament, he’s firmly in play.