DFS Alerts
Added A New Pitch
Martin Perez had a 13.1% strikeout rate with a 7.2% swinging strike rate and a 1.69 HR/9 in 2018 with the Texas Rangers. This season he started using a cutter around 30% of the time. He has a 21.1% strikeout rate with a 10.9% swinging strike rate and a .69 HR/9. Seattle has a lot of power against left-handed pitching, but they also strikeout at a very high clip. The projected starting lineup has a .275 ISO with a 28% strikeout rate. I like Perez at his price point, but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk price.
Much Better In 2019
After struggling against left-handed pitching last season, Dozier has been really good against lefties this season. He draws a really good matchup tonight against Banuelos. Banuelos has a .418 wOBA with a .270 ISO against righties this season. He’s also struggled with walking hitters and keeping the ball on the ground. Dozier has a .354 ISO with a .474 wOBA and a 40% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season.
Very Risky Tournament Play
Darwinzon Hernandez will making his first career start tonight and draws a really good matchup against the Texas Rangers. You have to worry about any young pitcher making his first start, especially a pitcher that has struggled with walks in his Minor League career. Hernandez has really good stuff and he’s the top pitching prospect in the Red Sox organization. He’s very raw and this is a really risky spot, but if he’s able to put it together, he has some serious upside against a Rangers team striking out the fourth most against lefties. He has a 31.4% strikeout rate with a 17% walk rate in AA this season.
HR-Prone Pitcher Faces HR-Prone Lineup
Mike Leake has the 3rd highest HR/9 among qualified pitchers in the major leagues this season, having given up 18 HRs in 81.2 Innings pitched, and that could be trouble against a Twins lineups that ranks first in the league in HRs (97), Slugging Percentage (.514), and ISO (.251) against right-handed pitching this year. I’ll be targeting the power-hitters in the Minnesota lineup tonight, particularly slate-killer Max Kepler, as well as Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, and Nelson Cruz.
Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco
Walks Could Cause Trouble for Young Pitcher Tonight
Texas is middle-of-the-pack in implied run total tonight, which could actually make them a sneaky stack against left-hander Darwinzon Hernandez making his first major league start. It’s true, the Rangers rank 21st in wOBA and OPS against left-handers this season, and Joey Gallo remains out of the lineup on the Injured List. Hernandez could run into trouble, however, with his 17.0% walk rate at AA this season, and across AA and the majors Hernandez has walked 23 of the 113 right-handed hitters he has faced (20.4%). I’ll be targeting the right-handed power hitters in the Rangers lineup tonight (Elvis Andrus, Hunter Pence, and Asdrubal Cabrera) hoping those walks lead to a big inning.
Other tagged players: Elvis Andrus, Asdrubal Cabrera Young Pitcher With Terrifying Numbers Could Surprise Tonight
You could make a strong argument for Tyler Beede being the worst starting pitcher on even this pitching-challenged slate, with his 5.60 SIERA and 16.3 BB%, and his 7.05 ERA at AAA last season looks even worse. So why am I highlighting him as a GPP play? His numbers this season look worse than they should be with his first two games of the season coming at Colorado and at Cincinnati – in fact, this will be his first start of the season in his pitching-friendly home ballpark in San Francisco. His BB% should also be helped by facing a Padres team that ranks 29th in the league in BB% against right-handed pitching. This isn’t a play for the faint of heart, but for cost savings in GPPs tonight, I’ll have some shares of Tyler Beede.
The Rays are above a 110 wRC+ and 16 HR/FB both at home and vs RHP
Mike Fiers has a 4.76 ERA, 16.7 K%, 5.06 SIERA, 5.54 DRA, 88.9 mph aEV and .335 xwOBA. It’s difficult to find a glimmer of positive light anywhere in there. He did throw a no-hitter, but that might make these numbers look even worse because how bad would they be without that? Tonight, he faces a powerhouse offense too (yes, let’s call Tampa Bay what they are now). The Rays have a team 115 wRC+ and 16.5 HR/FB vs RHP and they don’t let a negative run environment in Tampa Bay stop them. They have a 111 wRC+ and 16.7 HR/FB there this season. Fiers has a below average 40.2 GB%. More fly balls…more home runs? Over the last year, Fiers has been slightly better against LHBs, meaning about league average (.300 wOBA, .315 xwOBA), while RHBs have a .309 wOBA, but .359 xwOBA. Batters from both sides of the plate have been above a 40% hard hit rate against him over that span. The Rays can attack from either side of the plate with Austin Meadows (153 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Brandon Lowe (136 wRC+, .249 ISO) and Ji-Man Choi (146 wRC+, .228 ISO) from the left side and Tommy Pham (136 wRC+, .209 ISO), Avisail Garcia (110 wRC+, .219 ISO) and Yandy Diaz (113 wRC+, .173 ISO) from the right. A 4.97 implied run line for the Rays places them just inside the top third of teams tonight.
Other tagged players: Ji-Man Choi, Brandon Lowe, Mike Fiers, Tommy Pham, Avisail Garcia, Yandy Diaz
Highest Team Total on the Board
It’s finally reached 70+ degrees in Denver, and we finally have some weather that is conducive for runs along with the generally favorable conditions that Coors Field offers. The Cubs have an implied team total of well over six tonight, and they are seemingly a lock for at least some production against Peter Lambert. While Lambert looked good in his debut against these same Cubs a week ago, I’ll give the edge to the opposing offense when they are facing a young pitcher for the second time in six days. Lambert doesn’t have a great minor league profile, though much of that is pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. However, it’s not like Coors Field is any less hitter-friendly. This Cubs lineup is dangerous from top to bottom, and there really isn’t a breather when you are facing them. Power bats like Schwarber, Rizzo, Bryant, and Baez are obviously great options at Coors. The only problem lies in the salary here. Almost every Chicago bat is ridiculously priced on DK, and for that reason I’ve almost been forced to tag the sub-$4,000 Carlos Gonzalez as a core play over there. Hey, it’s revenge after all! I’m not convinced that he has much left in the tank, but I can’t tag three $5,000+ bats on DK as core plays, so Gonzalez provides some Coors exposure at a reasonable price tag. On FanDuel, I’ll side with the power of Kyle Schwarber as the core option at a manageable salary tag. He is hitting .343 with a .410 on base percentage this month and seems comfortable in the leadoff spot.
Other tagged players: Kyle Schwarber
At Home Vs. a LHP = Money
The Rockies side of the Coors game is slightly less appealing against a more proven pitcher in Jose Quintana, but we still can’t ignore the elite power of Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado at home against a lefty. At home against LHP, Trevor Story has a career .317 average, .460 wOBA, 161 wRC+, and .422 ISO. At home against LHP, Nolan Arenado has a career .372 average, .486 wOBA, 179 wRC+, and .378 ISO. I’ve tagged Story as the core play because I actually prefer a pivot at third base, but there is no denying the potential for both of these hitters as elite plays tonight.
Ace in a Plus Matchup
Paxton is priced as the third or fourth most expensive option on every site tonight, so he won’t break the bank at the top of the list. In addition, he draws a favorable matchup as a large home favorite against the Mets. He might also get a longer leash with this being the second game of a double-header. While the command has been an issue at times, Paxton still owns elite metrics with a 33.2% strikeout rate, a swinging strike rate near 15%, and a 3.52 SIERA. While all four of these aces are relatively similar on the grand scale, Paxton provides a hint more upside and has a fine matchup. As such, I’ve tagged him as a core option today.
Value SP #2
If you are seeking a safer value arm tonight, Hudson makes the most logical sense. He has the highest ground ball rate in the league this season at 61.4%, and his ground ball ability is ridiculous against right-handed bats. The Marlins only have two lefties in their projected lineup tonight, and those two are J.T. Riddle and an aging Curtis Granderson. The Marlins have an implied team total of just 3.5 runs, and Hudson should be just fine in this spot against easily the worst offense in baseball. Sure, he won’t rack up a ton of strikeouts, but he’s a perfectly viable value arm and an SP #2 on multi-pitcher sites. I’ve tagged him as my second core arm on all sites.
Blue Jays have a 76 wRC+, 24.1 K% and 10.7 HR/FB vs LHP
John Means has allowed exactly one earned run in seven of his 10 starts. Estimators are not nearly buying into the 2.67 ERA with a .249 BABIP, 79.7 LOB% and 9.1 HR/FB, but only his 4.97 xFIP is much higher than league average. A 13.7 K-BB% and 87.2 mph aEV agrees that he might have league average upside all things taken into consideration, which is a major win for this Baltimore staff. While there is nothing special about that at cost a bit above $7K in what’s considered a dangerous park in Baltimore, it’s really nearly a neutral run environment and this is another spot where weather could give pitchers a boost, especially LH pitching with winds blowing in from left field. The Toronto offense has not seen much improvement against southpaws even with the arrival of Vlad Jr., as they’re still toting a 76 wRC+ with a 24.1 K% and 10.7 HR/FB against lefties this year. So although he’s certainly not as good as his ERA suggests, Means still has some value in what should be a favorable spot at a cost below $8K.
Other tagged players: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Jon Duplantier struck out seven of 19 Dodgers last time out and could be in a sneaky strong spot
Jon Duplantier has struck out 11 of 40 batters in two starts, including seven of 19 Dodgers last time out (and he was supposed to have platoon issues). Facing just under 50 batters from either side of the plate so far, he has just a one point wOBA split with batters from both sides of the plate below .280. Plenty of time for that to change, but he entered the season as a top 100 prospect (#87 Fangraphs) and through 22 big league innings, he’s fared well with a 3.27 ERA, 3.95 SIERA, 3.46 DRA and .322 xwOBA, although the 90.7 mph aEV is a bottom 8% mark in the league and something to be slightly concerned about. However, within $300 of $6K on either site, there’s room for some mistakes. This is not an ideal spot in a vacuum, but the Phillies have just a 93 wRC+ (23 K%, 14 HR/FB) vs RHP and the early data suggests the weather may be in his favor (Weather Edge is available to premium subscribers). While there probably isn’t a single pitcher on the board whom players “must” pay up for tonight, there are seven above $9K on DraftKings, where Duplantier could compliment and allow for fewer offensive sacrifices.
Start of ARI-PHI will be delayed due to rain Monday
The start of the matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies on Monday evening will be delayed due to inclement weather approaching the stadium. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Phillies have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Jerad Eickhoff not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, this contest is still far from safe and carries some late postponement risk even though it should play through to conclusion.
As reported by: Matt Gelb via Twitter
NYM-NYY postponed due to rain Monday
The game between the New York Mets and New York Yankees on Monday evening has been postponed due to forecasted rain throughout the remainder of the day and evening hours. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Tuesday, June 11 at 1:05 pm EST as part of a day-night, split-admission doubleheader. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Monday’s daily fantasy slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: the New York Yankees via Twitter