DFS Alerts
Cheap Power Upside
Jesse Winker is affordable on all sites and facing a below average strikeout pitcher in Zach Eflin who is allowing a .227 ISO on 45% fly balls and 387% hard hits to lefties. Winker comes in with a .260 ISO against righties, but has room to go up from there with just a .245 BABIP despite 24% line drives and 47% hard hits.
The Salary Is Not Budging
Every site has their favorite players that always seem a little too expensive and other players that just never seem to get priced up no matter what they do. On FD, one of those too cheap players is Derek Dietrich. He has a massive .468 ISO against righties this season with 52% fly balls and 40% hard contact and he’s facing a below average strikeout righty in Zach Eflin who has shown no ability to control batted balls against lefties. Add in the power friendly ballpark and Dietrich is an easy play at this salary.
Aces Will Be Aces
Gerrit Cole is the top pitcher tonight, and if salary were no issue, I would start with him everywhere. But salary is an issue, and the steep savings to Jacob deGrom is too much to ignore, especially on DK/FDRFT, and to a lesser extent on Yahoo. I haven’t heard anything to imply that last weekend’s hip cramp was anything more serious, and as long as he’s healthy, he is way underpriced for his skills and this home matchup against the Rockies. I see him as the top cash game target on DK/FDRFT/Yahoo with his consistent skills across the board.
The Best Of The Bunch
There is a lot of good pitching tonight, but it starts with Gerrit Cole, who leads all major league starters this season with a 37.4% strikeout rate. He is at home against an Orioles team with five high strikeout batters and ranking in the bottom third of the league in ISO and wOBA against right-handed pitching. On FD, Cole is priced just moderately above the rest of the top tier, and I would prioritize him in all formats.
Left-Hander Has Big Strikeout Upside
The sample size is obviously small, but across AAA and MLB this year, Andrew Heaney has 28 strikeouts in only 15.1 innings pitched – an absolutely silly 16.43 K/9. Tonight Heaney faces a Mariners team that ranks 7th in the league in K% against left-handed pitching, and Heaney and the Angels are strong -185 favorites in the game. Priced below the big-name aces but with big strikeout upside, Heaney is a top GPP play tonight.
Brandon Woodruff has 28.3% K rate and 3.64 SIERA this year but is priced under $8k on DK
For some reason, Brandon Woodruff’s price has been incredibly slow to adjust despite being in the midst of a very solid season. Woodruff has a 3.82 ERA / 3.62 xFIP / 3.64 SIERA with a 28.3% K rate, 6.7% BB rate and respectable 36.2% FB rate. He also has a solid .299 xwOBA allowed with just a 5% barrels/BBE and an aEV of 86.9 on the year. He’s shown no signs of slowing down with a .272 xwOBA allowed, 29% K rate and 84.6 aEV over the past 30 days. Woodruff gets a matchup tonight with the Pirates who have a slightly below average 96 wRC+ and 20.2% K rate vs. RHP on the year. The Pirates have a 22nd ranked .312 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Though Miller Park is certainly hitter-friendly, Woodruff has seen much better numbers at home this year with a .274 xwOBA allowed at home compared to a .334 xwOBA when pitching on the road. The Pirates currently have just a 3.45 implied line vs. Woodruff and the Brewers. Priced at just $7.8k on Draftkings and $8.6k on Fanduel, Woodruff makes for a very good play as a value arm, and is arguably the best upside arm in his price range given the near 30% K rate with good peripheral stats.
Joey Lucchesi has a 28.4 K% and .263 xwOBA over the last 30 days
Patrick Corbin failed to make it out of the third inning in Cincinnati last time out. The strikeout rate (26.9%) is down nearly four points from last season and the quality of the contact he’s allowed has not been ideal (89.7 mph aEV, 9.9% Barrels/BBE, 41.1% 95+ mph EV). Still, none of his metrics suggest he’s been a poor pitcher (3.46 ERA, 3.80 SIERA, 2.59 DRA, .312 xwOBA) and he’s probably even the top overall pitcher on the board with a park boost in San Diego against an offense with a 27.3 K% vs LHP. However, don’t be afraid to sneak in a few San Diego batters on a five game slate here. The Padres also have a 22 HR/FB vs LHP.
The real conversation about pitching in this game should be around the less obvious arm though. Joey Lucchesi has a 28.4 K% with a 13.4 SwStr% over the last month, walking just three of his last 92 batters. Just as importantly, Lucchesi has also recorded seventh inning outs in three straight starts after having done so just once previously this season. In addition to the strikeouts and 49.7 GB%, Lucchesi is also a quality contact manager (86.1 mph aEV), so while all of his contact independent estimators agree with a 3.96 ERA (3.84 SIERA, 3.89 DRA), his 3.56 FIP and .283 xwOBA are a bit more optimistic. It gets even better over the last 30 days: 2.49 ERA, 3.28 SIERA, .263 xwOBA. The Nationals are tough on LHP (122 wRC+), but neither their 13.4 K-BB%, nor 16.5 Hard-Soft% are all that concerning. Lucchesi costs just $8.2K on FanDuel ($9K on DK) and is probably the top option for players who don’t want to pay much more than that.
A's have a 126 wRC+, 18.1 K% and 25.9 Hard-Soft% vs LHP
Tyler Skaggs has struck out 22 of his last 74 batters faced, but against teams that are really bad with lots of strikeouts against LHP (KC, TEX, SEA). Perhaps that’s why his 5.98 DRA is well above his 4.50 ERA. He’s been about average by exit velocity (at best) as well. The A’s have been murdering LHP (126 wRC+, 18.1 K%, 25.9 Hard-Soft%). Skaggs has allowed RHBs a .323 wOBA and .320 xwOBA over the last year that’s just about league average. This is a spot where players should consider backing a vicious middle of Oakland’s order which should include Matt Chapman (159 wRC+, .245 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Khris David (134 wRC+, .315 ISO) and Stephen Piscotty (159 wRC+, .264 ISO). At 4.5 runs, the A’s sit right in the middle of a five game board, but Skaggs recent success against poor offenses may have him over-valued here.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Stephen Piscotty, Tyler Skaggs Mike Fiers has a 16.4 K% and 42.1% 95+ mph EV
Mike Fiers has been nothing special since his no-hitter (or prior to it really). He’s sitting on a 16.4 K% with 42.1% of his contact allowed above a 95 mph exit velocity. His 4.78 ERA is still well below estimators all above five due to an unsustainable .229 BABIP. A .334 xwOBA concurs, 24 points above his actual mark. All attention will likely be paid to Yankee and Ranger bats projected much higher, but the Angels are third on the board with a run line of exactly five. The Angels make contact at about the same rate that Fiers misses bats, which means a lot of balls in play tonight. While the A’s have shown and above average defense, they’re going to have to do some amazing work to back Fiers here. A reverse split, RHBs have a .316 wOBA, but .360 xwOBA against Fiers over the last 12 months, which basically means players should load up on Mike Trout (196 wRC+, .326 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), but unless the Angels decide to push David Fletcher (112 wRC+, .101 ISO) to the top of the lineup here, it’s going to be LHBs like Tommy La Stella (128 wRC+, .207 ISO), Shohei Ohtani (155 wRC+, .314 ISO) and Kole Calhoun (126 wRC+, .272 ISO) that should draw players’ interest as well. Fiers has only been league average by xwOBA (.312) against LHBs with a 41% hard hit rate.
Other tagged players: David Fletcher, Mike Fiers, Shohei Ohtani, Kole Calhoun, Tommy La Stella J.A. Happ has a 28 K% last 30 days, but has allowed 15 HRs in 12 starts
J.A. Happ continues to be limited to twice through the lineup, but has pitched well in Kansas City and against Boston over his last two outings, though he does keep allowing the HRs (15 in 12 starts). He has a 28 K% over the last month, but still a 4.99 FIP. .He has only issued as many walks as HRs for the season, but he and Edwin Jackson have the highest Z-O-Swing% on the board (41.7% & 42.3%). With the strikeouts, the HRs become a bit more bearable, but Happ is a two way pitcher tonight. He’s an arm players can utilize for around $8K against an offense with 80 wRC+ and 24 K% vs LHP. However, despite their 10.7 HR/FB against southpaws as well, they did flash some RH power last night. RHBs have a .321 wOBA (.320 xwOBA) against Happ since last season with just a 32.9 GB%, while the Blue Jays have four RHBs above a .200 ISO against LHP over the last calendar year. Lourdes Gurriel (192 wRC+, .290 ISO) has just been destroying them. Vladimir Guerrero (95 wRC+, .233 ISO) has just a .208 BABIP against southpaws, but a .401 xwOBA that’s 82 points above his actual mark. Randal Grichuk (136 wRC+, .252 ISO) and Teoscar Hernandez (86 wRC+, .202 ISO) might be additional bats of interest here. The Blue Jays are closer to the bottom of the board than the top at 4.13 implied runs, so not many players should be expected to be on them. The one concern here is that after Happ gets his five innings in, the Yankees will throw an elite bullpen into action. On the other side, Edwin Jackson has a 14.1 K%, 28.6 HR/FB, 35.4 Hard-Soft%, 90.8 Z-Contact%, 13.22 ERA, 5.22 SIERA, 10.49 DRA, .405 xwOBA, 91.4 mph aEV and 13.8% Barrels/BBE. More than enough said. Only the Rangers (facing David Hess at home) are expected to do more damage than the Yankees tonight.
Other tagged players: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel, Edwin Jackson Value Play With Power
Chad Pinder has been really good against left-handed pitching since the start of 2018. He has a .200 ISO with a .374 wOBA with a 53.7% hard-hit rate in that span. He also has a 91 average exit velocity and a 322.2 average air distance. His price is down across the industry, and he’s a really nice source of value in this matchup. This ballpark has been great for hitters this season.
Crushing Fastballs
Skaggs has a .332 wOBA with a .184 ISO and a 45.1% hard-hit rate against righties this season. His fastball is getting crushed by right-handed hitters this season, which is not good for him in this matchup against Oakland. Skaggs is throwing his fastball right at 50% of the time against righties this season. Davis has a .420 wOBA with a .377 ISO and a 65% hard-hit rate against fastballs from lefties since the start of 2016. Davis has a .308 ISO with a .377 wOBA against lefties since the start of 2018.
Load Up Here
The Yankees are at the top of the list in all formats tonight facing Edwin Jackson and his exciting 13.22 ERA. I’m no mathematician, but that seems too high. Since the start of 2018, Jackson has struck out just 17.6% of lefties and 16.7% of righties along with poor control to the lefties. It’s likely the Yankees get Jackson out of the game early, which adds some value to the switch-hitting Aaron Hicks, who is already the most affordable middle of the order bat for the Yankees. If salary were no issue, I’d put Sanchez, Voit and Torres first, but with the savings, Hicks is the easiest way to get a piece of this Yankees offense.
The Best Of The Best
On DK/Yahoo, I am prioritizing Gary Sanchez ahead of Mike Trout based on positional needs, but on FD/FDRFT, where we don’t need to play a catcher, I’d rather spend that salary on the best player in baseball facing a reverse splits righty. Mike Fiers is striking out just 16.9% of righties while allowing 46% fly balls and 42% hard hits. Mike Trout has more walks than strikeouts, a 52% hard hit rate, .328 ISO and .471 wOBA against right-handed pitching. An elite play in all formats if you can afford him.
Catch The Power
It doesn’t set up much better than the Yankees against Edwin Jackson and the Toronto bullpen. Jackson is a bad pitcher all around in addition to having shown reverse splits power the past couple seasons, allowing a .244 ISO with just 16.7% K to righties. Gary Sanchez is punishing the ball against righties this season with 52% hard hits and a .413 ISO. With his catcher eligibility on DK/Yahoo, he is my priority spend in cash games on those sites and a top tournament play on all sites.