DFS Alerts
Upside At A Discount
Trevor Bauer has not been quite as good this season as what we saw in 2018, notably with the control, but he’s still the highest strikeout pitcher on this slate at 27% and he’s shown signs of lowering the walks in his last couple starts. There is a lot of power risk against a very good Twins lineup, so if choosing one ace to spend on, I side with Patrick Corbin, but I’d be happy to use Bauer in cash on two-pitcher sites and he’s a top tournament option on all sites.
Top Of The Hill
We’ve got a decent group of pitchers for a small slate, headlined by the 26.9% strikeouts of Patrick Corbin going into San Diego. None of tonight’s pitchers quite reach elite status in terms of strikeout upside this season, but Corbin’s mix of strikeouts and good control give him the lowest SIERA on this slate at 3.81 and he has nine quality starts in 12 games this season with over 100 pitches thrown in seven of them. The Padres are better against lefties and do have some power to threaten him with but they still come in with the 4th highest strikeout rate in the league against lefties. Nobody is a must play on this slate, but Corbin is my top pitcher in all formats tonight.
Great Hitting Environment Leads to Upside
Texas is now facing David Hess tonight, and I actually like their matchup better against Hess than I did against Andrew Cashner. Hess is a fly ball pitcher who allows a ton of home runs, and that’s not good when you are pitching in Arlington. All the primary bats are in play here, with Choo (if he plays) and Andrus at the top of the list in terms of salary. Odor is a fine risk/reward GPP play in this matchup, while Cabrera can round out any GPP stack.
Safest Arm on the Slate
In cash games, you have to prioritize Corbin tonight. He carries fewer question marks than the other high-end pitchers on this slate, and he draws a reasonable matchup against the Padres in a very pitcher-friendly park. Corbin owns a solid 27% strikeout rate for the year to go along with average walks and a SIERA/xFIP in the mid-to-upper threes. I like the pivot to Bauer in tournaments with similar upside at lower ownership, but Corbin is the prudent play in formats where safety is paramount. In addition, I like trying to fit the Corbin/Bauer combination on multi-pitcher sites in tournaments. That build will be contrarian with people focusing on paying up for NYY/TEX bats. Give it a look if you can find value at the plate.
GPP Pivot Arm
Although his overall numbers aren’t great because of his issues with walks this season, Trevor Bauer has still held opposing hitters to a .198 average, and he owns a 27% strikeout rate. I still think the long-term outlook is positive here, and ownership will likely be down tonight because of his uneven numbers and a tough matchup on tap against the Twins. On a five game slate, Bauer has the potential to be a difference maker. I like him as a fine GPP pivot.
High Upside Power Stack
Fire up your Yankees tonight. The Yankees draw a great matchup against Edwin Jackson, who clearly doesn’t have the skill set at age 35 to succeed at the MLB level. He has a laughable ERA of over 13.00 in his four starts as a member of the Blue Jays, and he is allowing hard contact 46% of the time. Power bats are in a great spot here, and that starts with Gary Sanchez, who owns a .390 ISO and .408 wOBA this season. Even though he is a catcher, he is perhaps the top overall bat on tonight’s slate. Voit, Torres, and others can be added as part of a GPP stack, and you really can’t go wrong here.
Other tagged players: Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu Start of CIN-STL will be delayed due to rain Wednesday
The start of the matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday evening will be delayed due to inclement weather approaching the stadium. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Cardinals have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Dakota Hudson not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, there’s still some late postponement risk here if the teams don’t feel like waiting out a lengthy delay.
As reported by: Jeff Jones via Twitter
Start of ATL-PIT will be delayed due to inclement weather Wednesday
The start of the matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday evening will be delayed due to inclement weather approaching the stadium. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Pirates have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Joe Musgrove not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, a late postponement or suspension of play following this initial delay seem like unlikely outcomes.
As reported by: John Perrotto via Twitter Mike Leake has a board worst 90.3 Z-Contact% and 91.5 mph aEV
The Astros are still down a good portion of the top half of their lineup, but the good news is that they’ve still been able to batter Seattle pitching in this series and the hits are likely to keep coming against Mike Leake, who does not miss bats (16.5 K% with a board worst 90.3 Z-Contact%) and generates far too much hard contact (91.5 mph aEV is also worst on the slate). All of this has led to a .367 xwOBA and actual wOBA eight points higher. Despite the 4.71 ERA, 5.62 FIP and 7.34 DRA, the Mariners not only keep trotting him out there, but he’s faced at least 23 batters in every start and failed to complete six innings only three times this year. He’s allowed multiple HRs in seven of his 12 starts and while only one of those was at home, it was his last start against the Angels, which makes three consecutive starts with multiple HRs allowed as well. Alex Bregman (165 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) remains the star in this lineup. Michael Brantley (137 wRC+, .184 ISO), Robinson Chirinos (130 wRC+, .243 ISO) and whoever bats leadoff likely have value as well.
Other tagged players: Michael Brantley, Robinson Chirinos, Mike Leake
Conditions suggest Yu Darvish (26.6 K%) could be effective tonight
Yu Darvish is probably second best pitcher in this game, but the walk rate has become stomachable over his last four starts (eight of 83 batters), while the strikeout rate is up to 26.6% and he’s only allowed the ball to leave the yard in one of his last five starts. Everything lines up for him to have one of his more efficient starts tonight. The forecast calls for cool temperatures with the wind blowing in, there’s a potentially pitcher friendly umpire behind the plate, and the Rockies have a ridiculous 20.6 K-BB% with a 74 wRC+ away from Coors. They have been swinging the bats a bit better over the last week, but that was coming off a home stand in which they faced Orioles’ pitching. Darvish still has some upside in his right arm and costs just $7.1K on DraftKings.
Underpriced For This Matchup
Felix Pena has good wOBA numbers and has an above average strikeout rate with a lower walk rate. With all that said, I really like the Oakland bats tonight. They profile really well against Pena. Matt Olson really stands out to me at his price across the industry. Pena has a 47% fly ball rate with a 39.4% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season. Olson has a .395 wOBA with a .311 ISO against sinkers since the start of 2016. His .209 BABIP has his numbers a little down this season, but he does have a 53.2% fly ball rate with a 48.9% hard-hit rate.
Career Year Before Injury
Jimmy Nelson will be pitching for the first time since 2017, and it had nothing to do with numbers. He had a long recovery after a shoulder issue. He has thrown four starts in AAA and has 26 strikeouts in 20.2 innings. He threw 97 pitches on the 29th in his last start at AAA. I wouldn’t expect him to be on a pitch count limit, and he draws a great matchup against the Marlins. Nelson had a 3.20 xFIP with a 27.3% strikeout rate in 2017 and was really good against right-handed hitters. With this lineup being right-handed heavy, I like Nelson to have a strong outing in his first game back.
Right Back To The Well
I have a bad taste in my mouth after playing Fried against the Pirates last night, but that’s not going to stop me from going right back to the well tonight. Gausman should see a really left-handed lineup tonight, which is actually really good for him. Gausman is a high usage splitter guy, and he actually has a little more upside against left-handed hitters. Sent the start of last season, he’s thrown his splitter 36% of the time against lefties, and he has a .252 wOBA with a .135 ISO and a 38.4% whiff rate. In the small sample of PAs against splitters, this projected starting lineup has really struggled with him. I still like Nelson more in cash, but I do like this price point for Gausman.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed 14.1% Barrels/BBE this year
Carlos Carrasco’s 13.7 SwStr% over the last month is identical to his season rate, even as his strikeout rate has dropped to 23.4% over this span. However, he’s allowed 15 runs over his last 17.2 innings with six HRs and a conversation now needs to be had about his quality of contact allowed. A .353 BABIP still seems unsustainable and a 14.1% Barrels/BBE is a full three points above any other pitcher today and likewise unlikely to be maintained, but it’s an absolute fact that he’s been getting hammered. His 90.9 mph aEV is behind only Mike Leake’s 91.5 mph aEV tonight. His 47.3% 95+ mph EV is behind only Dakota Hudson’s 48%. In a firmly positive run environment, we have to think about taking advantage of his troubles with a Minnesota offense that has been truly ferocious this season. Their 131 wRC+ on the road (18.8 HR/FB) is a split best by more than 10 points today. Their 120 wRC+ vs RHP (19.9 K%, 17.1 HR/FB) is tied for split bets with a Houston team missing many of it’s top bats. LHBs now have a fairly healthy .329 wOBA against Carrasco over the last 12 months. How good has this Minnesota lineup been? They don’t have a single eligible DFS bat today below a .154 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year with only Miguel Sano (97 wRC+) among the projected nine below a 100 wRC+. Jorge Polanco (151 wRC+, .205 ISO) has been the surprise breakout bat. Max Kepler (110 wRC+, 228 ISO) was showing signs of the same, but has a -93 wRC+ and 9.1 Hard% over the last week. Eddie Rosario (106 wRC+, .231 ISO) should be near the top of this lineup as well.
Other tagged players: Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Carlos Carrasco Your team, your call
I completely understand if you have given up on Travis Shaw. This is really a case of knowing what kind of DFS player you are. We all have different opinions on hot and cold streaks vs long term numbers. If you don’t want to play a batter with a .174 batting average like Shaw, you don’t have to. I get it. For me, I am still playing the long term numbers combined with the still strong batted ball data on Shaw at this salary. This bad season for Shaw has still come with 43% fly balls and 41% hard hits against righties with the big issue being strikeouts. Well, tonight he faces a pitcher in Sandy Alcantara who has the 2nd lowest strikeout rate of all major league starters against left-handed batters at just 11.6%. I’ll be taking the Shaw discount, you get to decide your own opinion on it.