DFS Alerts
Drew Pomeranz has allowed at least five runs in three of his last four starts
Drew Pomeranz has allowed at least five runs in three of his last four starts, lasting less than three innings against such offensive stalwarts as the Reds, Diamondbacks and Orioles. In fact, he’s allowed three HRs even in four home starts this season and hasn’t even completed five innings since April. His ERA and DRA are both above eight this season. The Dodgers aren’t as good against LHP as RHP, but are still above average and while San Francisco is a negative power and run environment, it’s a bit more forgiving to RH power. RHBs have a .418 wOBA against Pomeranz over the last 12 months. Do not be afraid to look to look for offense in a tough west coast park with Enrique Hernandez (132 wRC+, .210 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Justin Turner (151 wRC+, .243 ISO) and David Freese (170 wRC+, .237 ISO).
Other tagged players: David Freese, Enrique Hernandez, Drew Pomeranz
22 of the 41 batters Andrew Heaney has faced have either a strikeout or HR
Andrew Heaney presents an interesting situation in his third starts. He has struck out 18 of 41 batters (10 Mariners too), but has allowed four HRs and a 91.8 mph aEV, 22.7% Barrels/BBE, 50% 95+ mph over his two starts. That’s a HR or strikeout for more than half the batters he’s faced so far. This is obviously unsustainable from either end, but HRs and strikeouts continues an established trend throughout his career. The Mariners are worse against LHP. Lots of strikeouts (26.1%), but predominantly RH with some power (16.4 HR/FB). Heaney’s not cheap, but less than $10K for that many strikeouts from a pitcher who should start going deeper into games isn’t too expensive. This is a pitcher players should consider some exposure too as HRs aren’t that big a deal when a pitcher is whiffing so many batters. However, we can also have it both ways. Edwin Encarnacion (131 wRC+, .209 ISO), Domingo Santana (132 wRC+, .284 ISO), and Mitch Haniger (145 wRC+, .199 ISO) have been Seattle’s best hitters against LHP over the last calendar year. RHBs are have a wOBA more than 100 points higher than LHBs against Heaney over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Mitch Haniger, Domingo Santana, Andrew Heaney Game in Kansas City features two pitchers above a .350 xwOBA
A game in Kansas City between the Royals and White Sox is generally not likely to garner much attention, except that both teams are among the top third by implied run lines tonight with two of the more punishable pitchers on the mound tonight. Ivan Nova has struck out a total of 12 batters over his last five starts with a 5.4 SwStr%. His 92.5 Z-Contact% is worst on the board and though his estimators are generally about a run below his 6.24 ERA, his 9.51 DRA suggest better than a run per inning. Between Nova and Homer Bailey, we are looking at two of the six xwOBA marks on the board above .350 this season (three start min.). While Nova does it by simply not missing any bats anymore, Bailey can still miss bats at a league average rate (21.4 K%), but is otherwise a human launching pad. Batters have a 35.8 Hard-Soft% and board high 91.2 mph aEV against him when making contact. He hasn’t lasted even 20 batters in any of his last three starts or more than five innings in over a month. While both pitchers are better against RHBs over the last calendar year, neither drops below a .329 wOBA or xwOBA against batters from either side of the plate over that span. While the park in Kansas City suppresses power, it is a positive run environment. Yoan Moncada (116 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has a 191 wRC+ over the last week. Adalberto Mondesi (107 wRC+, .212 ISO) is experiencing a similar breakout on the side of this one, while Alex Gordon (116 wRC+, .202 ISO) has rejuvenated his career.
Other tagged players: Alex Gordon, Adalberto Mondesi, Homer Bailey, Ivan Nova Brandon Woodruff costs less than $9K with a 21.6 K% and 2.78 DRA
Brandon Woodruff has a 28.3 K% that’s fourth best on the board with a 21.6 K-BB% on the season. His 3.82 ERA is a bit above all of his estimators, especially a 3.16 FIP and 2.78 DRA, while he’s managed contact very well. An 86.9 mph aEV, 5.0% Barrels/BBE and 10.9 HR/FB support a .299 xwOBA. At .269 over the last month, it’s behind only Cole and deGrom on this board. The Pittsburgh offense gets a park upgrade, doesn’t strike out much (20.2% vs RHP) and has a league best 127 wRC+ over the last month, but has very little power outside of Josh Bell (11.9 HR/FB vs RHP) and seems like an offense that Woodruff should be able to shut down, even though they got him for six runs in his last start with a .588 BABIP, no HRs and five strikeouts. Prior to that, Woodruff had completed eight innings in back to back starts against the Phillies and Braves. Woodruff is pretty clearly under-priced here, especially at just $7.8K on DraftKings.
Jacob deGrom is only seventh highest priced in a great spot (Rockies 74 wRC+, 20.3 K-BB% on road)
Jacob deGrom is just third on the board with a 28.9 K%, due to a drop to 22.6% over the last month, but does have at least seven in eight of 12 starts this season and may have had more than seven in his last start in Arizona if he wasn’t cautiously lifted with a hip cramp. His 81.3 Z-Contact% is behind just Gerrit Cole (80.2%) among pitchers who have made more than two starts on this board. He’s allowed more than two runs in just one of his last seven starts. His 3.49 ERA is a bit higher than you’d expect and in line with most estimators, but his 1.91 DRA is much better and second best on the board. His contact management has improved as the season’s gone on as well. He’s now down to 5.9% Barrels/BBE and an 87.3 mph aEV, resulting in .276 xwOBA (.262 over the last month). The real appeal here is that six pitchers are more expensive than his $9.4K on DraftKings today in a pretty strong spot. The Rockies have just a 74 wRC+, 20.3 K-BB% and 11.6 HR/FB on the road this season. Against RHP, they have an 87 wRC+ with a 14.7 K-BB%. At this price, deGrom is likely to be well represented in lineups tonight, but the potential value may be too difficult to fade.
Don't Forget The Late Games
The offense is evenly spread out around this slate, but we typically see lower ownership on the West Coast on these full slates. Out in San Diego, the Padres are facing Erick Fedde and a bad Nationals bullpen with some very reasonably priced bats. Manny Machado’s surface numbers against righties are bad this season, but his batted ball profile remains strong with 42% hard hits, 42% fly balls and 20.7% K. Fedde has struck out an absurdly low 8.1% of right-handed batters with just a moderate ground ball lean that is not likely to be enough to get past Machado, Reyes and Renfroe with all their fly balls.
Rick Porcello has a 6.4 SwStr% over the last month and a .346 xwOBA vs LHBs last 12 months
Rick Porcello has just a 15.8 K% with a 6.4 SwStr% over the last month. For the season, he has just an 18.6 K% with a 7.6 SwStr%. He has been managing contact effectively by some metrics (10 Hard-Soft%), though not so much by others (9.1% Barrels/BBE). Estimators pretty much all agree with a 4.76 ERA, except a 5.84 DRA that’s more than a run worse. Tonight, he gets a Tampa Bay offense that has been better than his own team against RHP (114 wRC+, 16.1 HR/FB, 25.8 Hard-Soft%) in a very positive run environment. While Porcello has virtually no split by wOBA (three points) over the last calendar year, xwOBA still puts LHBs (.346) 40 points above RHBs over that span. The Rays have a healthy 4.9 implied run line, but it’s still barely inside the top 10 tonight. This is a strong spot for Ji-Man Choi (145 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Brandon Lowe (128 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Austin Meadows (146 wRC+, .220 ISO).
Other tagged players: Ji-Man Choi, Brandon Lowe, Rick Porcello A Bit Too Cheap (On FanDuel)
I’m not sold on Marcus Stroman’s overall success this season but do have some interest in using him in tournaments on FanDuel where he’s just a bit too cheap. Stroman is a below average strikeout pitcher who has been a bit lucky this season in terms of run prevention but to his credit has done a solid job generating soft contact. Stroman gets a solid home matchup against the Diamondbacks who have been worst this season against right-handed pitchers with a bottom third wRC+ (86).
Some Players Should Never Be This Cheap
This is not an elite can’t miss matchup by any means, but Mookie Betts is just too good of a hitter to ever cost $4,400/$8,300 on DK/FDRFT unless he’s facing a top of the line ace. Yonny Chirinos is OK, and the Rays bullpen is OK, but this is one of the best hitters in the league who has cost over $5k/$10k almost all season with more walks than strikeouts, power, speed, hard hits, fly balls and everything you could want against right-handed pitching.
Never Fun
Rostering Homer Bailey is never #fun. Bailey is well below a league average pitcher but is ridiculously cheap (especially on DraftKings) and gets a favorable home matchup against the Chicago White Sox. Pitching Bailey on single pitcher sites is a little too #YOLO for my taste but using him as SP2 on multi-SP sites as a way to access high priced bats is in play in tournaments.
Leadoff, Platoon, vs Bad Pitcher
Drew Pomeranz has been baaaaad – I know because I rostered him last Friday night when he wasn’t even able to last three innings and allowed eight earned runs after being spotted a five run lead. Chris Taylor has been alternating lead off duties for the Dodgers against left-handed pitching and is a strong value play as long as he continues to hit towards the top of the order.
Cheap Exposure to Top Offense
Yes, I know Travis Shaw has been miserable offensively this season but this is all about context for the Brewers’ third basemen. Milwaukee has the highest implied run total on the slate by a wide margin as they’ll host Rookie Davis and the Pirates. Shaw will not only have the platoon advantage against Davis but is unlikely to see a lefty all game as the only two southpaws in the Pirates bullpen each were used in yesterday’s game. Shaw has hit RHP for power his entire career with a .225 ISO and is a great way to get some cheap exposure to the top offense on the slate.
HRs Could Fly In Good Weather Conditions Tonight
We could see the ball flying out of the park in Philadelphia tonight, with two flyball pitchers on the mound and WeatherEdge showing an 8.2% increase in HR output in similar conditions. The Phillies could take advantage against Tyler Mahle, who has had trouble with HRs in his career, giving up 33 HRs in only 193.1 career innings. Bryce Harper and Jay Bruce (.364 ISO) should get the platoon advantage against Mahle, while I also like Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto hitting in the heart of the order from the right side of the plate.
Other tagged players: Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, Jay Bruce
Good Hitting Conditions And Low-Strikeout Pitcher Should Increase HR Output
The WeatherEdge tool shows Philadelphia with an 8.2% increase in HR potential tonight, and both the Phillies and the Reds offenses could benefit from the good hitting conditions. On the Reds side, they’ll be facing Zach Eflin making his return from the Injured List, and Eflin has already given up 10 HRs in 65 innings this year while posting only a 6.99 K/9. I’ll be targeting the Reds power hitters at the top of the lineup such as Derek Dietrich, Nick Senzel, Yasiel Puig, and Eugenio Suarez.
Other tagged players: Nick Senzel, Yasiel Puig, Eugenio Suarez Left-handed power could thrive in a power friendly park vs pitchers with platoon issues in Philly
Tyler Mahle has not allowed a HR in just three starts (two of those in Pittsburgh and Oakland). Along with his 20 K-BB% however, he owns an elite 21.7 K-BB%. The problem is that he also has just a 9.7 SwStr% with a 2.7 K/SwStr that may be difficult to sustain. The HRs and 24.7 LD% (.321 BABIP) are no fluke either with a 90 mph aEV. The good news is that he faces a predominantly RH lineup in Philadelphia, which has actually been below average vs RHP (93 wRC+, 13.6 HR/FB). The bad news is that it’s another power friendly park and they’ve recently swapped their leadoff hitter for a lefty power bat.
Zach Eflin has been more contact manager with great control (5.1 BB%) than bat misser (18.7 K%). The problem is that his aEV is just average, while his 85.1 LOB% is not sustainable. All estimators are 1.31 to 1.79 runs higher than his 3.02 ERA. The Reds are a well below average offense with a 16.4 K-BB% vs RHP.
Both pitchers have struggled greatly against LHBs over the last calendar year with ground ball rates below 40%, though Mahle’s .409 wOBA wOBA allowed is much worse than Eflin’s .344. Consider left-handed power in this affair. While Bryce Harper (124 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the obvious name, Derek Dietrich (130 wRC+, .251 ISO) and Jay Bruce (108 wRC+, .272 ISO) have been the guys tearing it up from that side of the plate this year. Dietrich still costs just $3K on FanDuel. If you’re looking for an even cheaper bat though, Jesse Winker (143 wRC+, .229 ISO) is the other bat in this game above a .200 ISO vs RHP over the last year.