DFS Alerts
Khris Davis (hip) scratched Tuesday; Kendrys Morales replaces
Davies has been scratched from the Oakland Athletics original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Cincinnati Reds due to a left hip contusion. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Kendrys Morales, who will now handle the designated hitter duties and slot directly into Davis’ vacated cleanup spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Athletics lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Tyler Mahle at home this evening.
As reported by: Julian McWilliams via Twitter Other tagged players: Kendrys Morales
Michael Perez (oblique) scratched Tuesday; Mike Zunino replaces
Perez has been scratched from the Tampa Bay Rays original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks due to right oblique tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Mike Zunino, who will now handle the catching duties and slot directly into Perez’s vacated ninth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Rays lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Taylor Clarke at home this evening.
As reported by: Josh Tolentino via Twitter Other tagged players: Mike Zunino Ben Zobrist (personal) scratched Tuesday; Kyle Schwarber replaces
Zobrist has been scratched from the Chicago Cubs original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Miami Marlins due to a personal matter. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Kyle Schwarber, who will now play left field and slot directly into Zobrist’s vacated eighth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Cubs lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Caleb Smith at home this evening.
As reported by: the Chicago Cubs via Twitter Other tagged players: Kyle Schwarber Power Hitting Offense Could Be In For Big Night Against Young Pitcher
The Philadelphia offense gets a ballpark downgrade tonight playing in St. Louis, but it might not matter if Dakota Hudson isn’t able to get the ball over the plate. The young St. Louis right-hander looked sharp in his last start against Washington with only one run and two walks allowed over 6 innings, but he still has a career 12.8% BB% over his 57.1 career MLB innings. Philadelphia has the power to hit the ball out of any park, and things could go south quickly for Hudson if he is allowing too many runners on base. I’ll be targeting the power in the middle of the Philly lineup, starting with Bryce Harper, as well as Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, and Odubel Herrera.
Other tagged players: Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, Odubel Herrera
Injury-plagued lineup could start getting healthy tonight
The Washington Nationals are hoping to start getting healthier tonight as they take on the Brewers in Milwaukee. Anthony Rendon is eligible to come off the Injured List tonight, and the team is expected to face right-hander Freddy Peralta after opener Adrian Houser throws an inning or two. Houser had a 5.19 ERA at AAA last year, while Peralta is sporting a 8.31 ERA over 21.2 innings this season, and the Brewers bullpen has thrown a league-high 38 innings over the past 7 days. I’ll be eyeing Washington as a sneaky stack despite their low implied run total, targeting hitters like Anthony Eaton, Victor Robles, and Howie Kendrick, while also checking to see if Rendon is activated for tonight’s game.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rendon, Howie Kendrick, Victor Robles Improving Young Pitcher Faces Weak Offense
Jose Berrios isn’t the most expensive pitcher on the slate and he probably won’t be the most popular either, but considering his matchup he has as much upside as any pitcher on the slate. Toronto ranks 27th in the league in wOBA against right-handed pitching and 2nd in K%, and Berrios and the Twins are solid -150 favorites in tonight’s game. Berrios is still only 24 years old and has continued to show the improvement we like to see in a young pitcher, keeping his K% steady (25.1% this season compared to 25.4% last year) while dropping his BB% to 4.4% this season (compared to 7.7% last year).
Noah Syndergaard's rebound was inevitable (27.4 K%, 2.41 DRA, 85.3 mph aEV)
Noah Syndergaard through a one-hit shutout with 10 Ks in his last start in what many people believed a much needed rebound game. However, anyone looking at the numbers underlying his results realized that a strong bounce back was nearly inevitable. In fact, his 8.7 SwStr% in that game was actually only the second time he’s been below 11% this year. Syndergaard still has a 5.02 ERA, but now has a 27.4 K% and 80.6 Z-Contact% on the year, along with a 3.49 SIERA and 2.41 DRA. He has a .345 BABIP despite getting a ton of weak ground balls (50.9 GB%, 14.7 LD%, 85.3 mph aEV, 3.4% Barrels/BBE, 27.1% 95+ mph EV). If you’ve watched a Syndergaard start this year, you’ve no doubt witnessed a lot of bloopers, bleeders, defensive miscues and infield hits. The defense is something he’ll have to contend with the entire year, but his strand rate is still only 61.2% and it’s fairly obvious the arsenal is as strong as ever and that makes him a solid play in San Diego tonight. The Padres have team 81 wRC+, 19.4 K-BB% at home and 83 wRC+, 20.2 K-BB% vs RHP.
Great return spot for Matt Olson vs pitcher with .422 xwOBA vs LHBs & 92.6 mph aEV on the year
Don’t let that 24.4 K% fool you. Tyler Mahle has a 2.9 K/SwStr, 4.88 DRA, 90.4 Z-Contact% and board high 92.6 mph aEV. He does get a substantial park upgrade in Oakland tonight, but no major league park can make that exit velocity look good. However, Mahle does have a massive platoon split. LHBs have a .422 wOBA against him over the last year, while RHBs (.295) are below .300. The A’s have just a few LHBs in their projected lineup tonight and two of them are Robbie Grossman (101 wRC+, .119 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Jurickson Profar (101 wRC+, .213 ISO), who’s expected to be near the bottom of the order. The bat daily fantasy players should be interested in tonight is the returning Matt Olson (125 wRC+, .260 ISO). While he had just a 32 wRC+ in 24 AAA PAs, Olson only struck out three times and was four for his last 15 with a HR. This is a great spot for Olson to return to and he may get over-looked.
Other tagged players: Tyler Mahle Antonio Senzatela has a board worst 53.4% 95+ mph EV this year and faces affordable bats
Stephen Strasburg has struck out at least eight in six innings or better in six of his seven starts. His 15 SwStr% is a career high by more than two full points. Ironically usage of his four-seamer (31.2%) and slider (1.7%) are down in favor of curves (28%) and sinkers (19.4%), but the whiff rate on curve (44.2%) and four-seamer (29.5%) are up about 10 percentage points without any significant spin rate changes and an actual one mph loss in velocity. Due to these adjustments in pitch usage, his ground ball rate (50.9%) has hit 50% for the first time since 2013 and only other time in his career. His 22.6 Z-O-Swing% is best on the board and Caleb Smith is the only other pitcher on the board with more than one start, who betters his 81.8 Z-Contact%. And among those who have made a single start, only Noah Syndergaard comes within 20 points of his .243 xwOBA. The Brewers have a 18.9 HR/FB vs RHP and 22.0 HR/FB at home in a dangerous park, but they also have a 26.5 K% vs RHP. This might give Strasburg the highest projected strikeout rate on the board tonight. Despite the difficult spot, this also a high upside one for a pitcher showing some of the most upside of his career.
Other tagged players: Pablo Sandoval, Brandon Belt, Antonio Senzatela Stephen Strasburg has the top SwStr (15%) rate and second highest GB (50.9%) rate of his career
Stephen Strasburg has struck out at least eight in six innings or better in six of his seven starts. His 15 SwStr% is a career high by more than two full points. Ironically usage of his four-seamer (31.2%) and slider (1.7%) are down in favor of curves (28%) and sinkers (19.4%), but the whiff rate on curve (44.2%) and four-seamer (29.5%) are up about 10 percentage points without any significant spin rate changes and an actual one mph loss in velocity. Due to these adjustments in pitch usage, his ground ball rate (50.9%) has hit 50% for the first time since 2013 and only other time in his career. His 22.6 Z-O-Swing% is best on the board and Caleb Smith is the only other pitcher on the board with more than one start, who betters his 81.8 Z-Contact%. And among those who have made a single start, only Noah Syndergaard comes within 20 points of his .243 xwOBA. The Brewers have a 18.9 HR/FB vs RHP and 22.0 HR/FB at home in a dangerous park, but they also have a 26.5 K% vs RHP. This might give Strasburg the highest projected strikeout rate on the board tonight. Despite the difficult spot, this also a high upside one for a pitcher showing some of the most upside of his career.
Site Specific Values
I’m focusing on the high end pitching tonight along with a couple of key batting spots at high salaries. Finding a few value bats will be important, and we can find them in the outfield on FD. Gregory Polanco and Yasiel Puif in particular stand out at their savings. I’ll start with Polanco facing the low strikeouts of Adrian Sampson and a bad Rangers bullpen. Polanco is still working his way back from injury, but has started hitting the ball in the air, and going back to last season, has a strong .253 ISO and .361 wOBA against right-handed pitching. I also like his teammate Bryan Reynolds for more outfield savings.
Triumphant Bounceback
The Red Sox were the big disappointment last night, but we need a short memory here. They face one of the most home run prone pitchers in the league tonight in David Hess, backed by one of the leagues worst bullpens. Hess has allowed a 2.37 HR/9 this season after a 1.92 mark in 2018. Martinez hits the ball hard, he hits the ball in the air and he has brought his strikeout rate down siginificantly this season.
Too Cheap For These Skills
The .244 batting average from Jose Altuve looks odd, but if you’re concerned by it, everything under the surface says there is no problem here and we should be taking the salary discount. Altuve doesn’t strike out and he’s hitting the ball hard. The low average fluke is easy to spot. These are the BABIP numbers from Altuve from 2014-2018 – .360, .329, .347, .370, .352. So far in 2019? .235. Is there anything but fluke behind that number? A career high 43% hard hit rate says no. Take the discount.
Jose Berrios has gone at least six innings in every start w/ great contact management (85.6 mph aEV, 18 IFFB%)
Jose Berrios has gone at least six innings in every start, allowing more than two runs just twice and no more than four in his seven starts. His bat missing skills are strong if not elite (25.1 K%, 11.3 SwStr%), while his 83.6 Z-Contact% and 28.9 Z-O-Swing% have helped lead to an 85.6 mph aEV that’s third best on the board and a very strong batted ball profile (18.3 LD%, 33 GB%, 18.0 IFFB%). This helps support a .250 BABIP that’s 43 points below what the Twins have allowed and potentially why his estimators, all around four, are quite a bit higher than his 2.91 ERA. While there’s certainly some regression to be expected from his 86 LOB%. Berrios has also nearly cut his walk rate in half this year (4.4%) to give him a K-BB in excess of 20%. All of this is fine, but what puts Berrios on par with the other three pitchers above $10K tonight is the upside of his matchup in Toronto. The Blue Jays are below an 80 wRC+ and above a 17.5 K-BB% at home, vs RHP and over the last seven days. It doesn’t get much better than that for a pitching matchup. In fact, it’s nearly impossible to find a single drawback here. While Toronto is not a pitcher friendly park, it’s not really much of a run environment shift from Minnesota and Todd Tichenor (tonight’s home plate umpire) is considered favorable for pitchers. The Twins even have the top defense in the league by UZR/150 (10.6). Berrios’s ownership may even be depressed tonight, considering that the Blue Jays sit in the middle of the board at 4.21 implied runs
David Hess has allowed a board worst 15.5% Barrels/BBE & has a .454 xwOBA over last month
David Hess has just a 7.0 SwStr%, 90.5 Z-Contact%, and 44.5 Z-O-Swing% with a 7.70 DRA, 5.30 SIERA matching his 5.34 ERA. Add all that to a ridiculous 15.5% Barrels/BBE and .402 xwOBA (.454 over the last month) that are worst on the board and it’s easy to figure out which pitcher players should attack tonight, although not much motivation was probably necessary to roster Boston bats. They did struggle last night, but John Means has been a rare bright spot in the Baltimore rotation. David Hess has had very different results. Boston is the second highest (5.58) of four offenses above five implied runs tonight. Boston bats are expensive, as always, but generally worth the price. Mookie Betts (166 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the top bat, J.D. Martinez (155 wRC+, .247 ISO) a few hundred cheaper, Andrew Benintendi (137 wRC+, .183 ISO) and Xander Bogaerts (125 wRC+, .234 ISO) top half of the lineup compliments, but Rafael Devers (105 wRC+, .195 ISO) and Michael Chavis (196 wRC+, .317 ISO) have been doing some damage in the middle of the lineup as well. In fact, it’s tough to find an unusable bat in this projected lineup considering Jackie Bradley Jr.s price ($3.2K on DK, $2.3K on FD) and the current state of catching in the DFS realm. Facing a much more hittable pitcher, the Red Sox should bounce back nicely after being shut down last night.
Other tagged players: Michael Chavis, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, David Hess, Jackie Bradley