DFS Alerts
Not Much Upside Anywhere Tonight
This is a tough pitching slate tonight. Nobody has a great matchup and nobody has a great price. In tournaments, I will just side with the highest strikeout pitchers and hope the batted balls from the difficult matchups go their way. Patrick Corbin has been a consistent strikeout pitcher the past two seasons and the Dodgers are a little bit less threatening against left-handed pitching. Corbin has 9+ strikeouts in three of his seven starts this season and had at least 7 K’s 23 times last season, so the GPP winning upside is here.
Loads Of Right-Handed Power
Houston is not going to be sneaky on this slate, and they are facing a pretty good pitcher in Mike Minor, but this is still my top stack of the night. As much as Minor is a good pitcher who has seen a recent strikeout increase, a fly ball lefty against Houston is always going to be in for a tough night. The right-handed Houston bats don’t strike out much and they are all better against fly ball pitchers. Alex Bregman is my first choice with his .242 ISO against lefties, followed by George Springer who is hitting the ball hard 50% of the time this season. Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa fill the weaker middle infield positions with upside at reasonable price tags.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman Start of SFG-COL will be delayed due to inclement weather
The start of the matchup between the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies on Wednesday evening will be delayed due to forecasted inclement weather. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Rockies have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Jon Gray not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, there is significant postponement risk for this contest since rain showers are expected to change over to snow during the typical gameplay window.
As reported by: Patrick Saunders via Twitter
LHBs have a .376 wOBA & 43.1 Hard% against Brad Peacock over the last year
Early ownership projections (premium membership required) suggest Brad Peacock could be a popular secondary pitcher on DK tonight against the Royals at home and why not. It’s a negative run environment against a bad team. However, Brad Peacock has struggled this year more than you might think. His 90.6 Z-Contact% and 46.4 Z-O-Swing% are both near the bottom of the board. He somehow has a .283 xwOBA that’s 28 points below his actual, but a single digit SwStr% and 90.2 mph aEV make that a bit suspect. The Royals jumped all over another struggling Astro last night (Collin McHugh) with two grand slams and Peacock has been pretty bad against LHBs (.376 wOBA, 43.1 Hard% last calendar year). That should put both Adalberto Mondesi (117 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Ryan O’Hearn (160 wRC+, .318 ISO) on the radar tonight. Both are above a 150 wRC+ over the last week as well. Alex Gordon (107 wRC+, .172 ISO) would also be reasonable on FanDuel ($3.6K), but costs nearly $5K on DraftKings. At just 3.5 implied runs, Kansas City bats are sure to be contrarian in a spot where they might be stronger than it appears.
Other tagged players: Ryan O'Hearn, Brad Peacock, Alex Gordon
Lack of strikeouts and 90 mph aEV could hurt Jose Urena at Wrigley tonight
Jose Urena will work deep into games (at least 26 BF in four straight), but doesn’t miss a lot of bats (exactly four strikeouts in five of seven starts). His 90 mph aEV could be a problem at Wrigley on an evening where the weather is not expected to be as imposing a factor as it has been the last two nights. In fact, Weather Edge (premium subscription required) is showing an early potential positive effect on run environment. An inability to miss bats could hurt Urena here as the Cubs have an 11.4 BB% and 17.2 HR/FB vs RHP. The key bat is fairly obviously going to be Anthony Rizzo (129 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). He should see some RBI opportunities in his customary third slot (actual lineup has not yet been released). Either Ben Zobrist (111 wRC+) or Daniel Descalso (103 wRC+) would be the value bat in the leadoff spot. Either is below $4K on DraftKings and $1K less on FanDuel. LHBs have just a .317 wOBA against Urena over the last calendar year, but that’s partially the effect of pitching in such a negative run environment all the time as they also have a 42.6 Hard% against him. With three teams above five implied runs tonight and the Cubs just below (4.91), it’s possible bats could go under-owned in this spot.
Other tagged players: Daniel Descalso, Jose Urena, Ben Zobrist Miguel Cabrera can still hit LHP (176 wRC+, .208 ISO, 46.7 Hard% last calendar year)
Tyler Skaggs has an attractive 22.9 K% and 3.12 ERA, so it might be tempting to utilize him against a Detroit offense with a 29.3 K% vs LHP, but a look at some of the underlying numbers, including a sub-9 SwStr% and 87.1 LOB% should be cause for some concern. In fact, his .340 wOBA allowed to RHBs over the last calendar year and a hitter friendly umpire behind the plate may even lend some value towards affordable Detroit bats. Both Jeimer Candelario (135 wRC+, .205 ISO, 40 Hard%) and Miguel Cabrera (176 wRC+, .208 ISO, 46.7 Hard%) have handled LHP very well over the last year. While the sample size for Miggy isn’t large, having missed most of last season, making hard contact has never been an issue for him when healthy. Both cost just $3.6K on DraftKings and less than $3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Tyler Skaggs, Jeimer Candelario Chris Sale may not be all the way back, but has struck out 28 of his last 72 batters
While the velocity remains all over the place, Chris Sale has at least been able to use his secondary pitches to greater benefit over his last few starts. He’s struck out 28 of his last 72 batters, though he did allow four ERs to the one good offense he’s faced in that stretch (Rays). The good news tonight is that he faced another poor offense in Baltimore (84 wRC+, 19.3 K-BB%, 11.7 HR/FB, 3.9 Hard-Soft% vs LHP). While Sale retains a 19.4 HR/FB, three of his seven HRs came in his first start and his overall numbers are starting to look pretty strong again (19.8 K-BB%, 81.3 Z-Contact%, 30.9 Z-O-Swing%). His xwOBA over the last month is now below the league average mark at .302 as well. The other benefit for Sale here is that Weather Edge (premium subscription requires) suggests a fairly large weather benefit for him tonight. Chris Sale is the most expensive pitcher on the board and may not be all the way back, but should still be able to pay off his price tag in a great matchup, considering the upside he’s shown in recent starts.
All The Way Back?
It was a dreadful start to 2019 for Chris Sale, but the recent signs have been very promising. His stuff looked as good as it has all season in his last outing against the White Sox, and he has amassed 28 strikeouts over his last three starts after posting just 14 over his first four starts. The upside is back — and will certainly be there in a matchup against an Orioles team that carries a lot of holes offensively. Sale is the top option on the board this evening.
A Great High Upside Stack
I expect everyone outside of the Red Sox and Coors Field to go a little over-looked tonight, so don’t be surprised if the Dodgers carry lower ownership than you might expect. While Mike Foltynewicz is a talented pitcher with a lot of potential, he has struggled out of the gate this year after battling injuries. He also has a history of susceptibility to left-handed batters, which plays into the strength of this Dodgers lineup. Corey Seager feels far too cheap on every site and has prime SS positional eligibility, while Pederson and Bellinger offer the upside power punch.
Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson The Obvious Stack
Perhaps the most dangerous offense in the league faces off once again with one of the worst pitching staffs in the league. After bombing as chalk on Monday, the Red Sox responded with a solid eight run outburst last night, and they should be able to keep it rolling against a bad pitcher in Andrew Cashner here. Cashner has no strikeout upside, a SIERA and xFIP near five, and a completely mortifying batted ball profile which includes a 46% opposing hard contact rate this year. Look out. All the power bats are in play here, and it’s difficult to distinguish the top plays. A full GPP stack is obviously a high upside move, though the Sox will be very chalky in this spot.
Other tagged players: Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland, JD Martinez The Success Is Not A Mirage
It may seem odd to see Matt Boyd being recommended as an “ace” pitcher, but he has certainly earned that designation. He currently owns an ERA, SIERA, and xFIP right around 3.00 for the year, and that is accompanied by impressive command, a 32% strikeout rate, and a 15% swinging strike rate. He has truly figured it out. Tonight’s matchup against the low strikeout Angels may limit the ceiling just a little bit, but Boyd is an intriguing pivot away from the household names like Kershaw and Sale in GPP formats.
Mostly Too Cheap Up And Down The Lineup
Outside of Cody Bellinger, most of the Dodgers bats are underpriced across the industry tonight. Mike Foltynewicz is just two starts back from an elbow injury and he doesn’t look like the same guy we saw in 2018. His velocity is down and his strikeouts are down, plus even when he was good, he allowed fly balls and hard hits to lefties. As much as I like Xander Bogaerts and Adalberto Mondesi tonight, Corey Seager comes in at a big discount at the shortstop position. He hits in the heart of the Dodgers strong lineup and with his 37.5% hard hits and good plate skills, better things are in store for his batting average moving forward.
Here We Are Again
For the third straight night, the Red Sox will be a popular offense in Baltimore against the awful Orioles pitching staff. The Red Sox hit three home runs last night, but still have plenty more upside than what we’ve seen so far. I don’t think any hitter is a must play on this slate, but if you’re looking to spend up, assuming the Colorado game gets postponed, it is the Boston outfield back on top of the list. Andrew Cashner has frighteningly low strikeouts to righties with only a ground ball lean to fall back on. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are the power bats here, and I’ll side with the higher fly ball ability of Betts when choosing between the two, but there is not much separating them.
Good Pitcher, Great Matchup
Kyle Hendricks is more of a real life pitcher than a DFS pitcher, but the Marlins help bring those two worlds together. While I’m never going to count on strikeouts from Hendricks, the Marlins offer plenty of potential with the 2nd highest K% in the league against righties. But more than that, he is priced low enough where just run prevention is enough and with his control and ground balls, and the wind blowing in at Wrigley Field, the low power Marlins pose very little threat here. They rank dead last in both ISO and wOBA against right-handed pitching, making Hendricks the preferred SP2 in cash games on DK/FDRFT.
He's Back
Chris Sale may not get all the way back to the utter dominance of 2018, but he has clearly recovered from his early season struggles. He has 34 strikeouts in his last 23 innings and has seen his ERA dropping steadily. The Orioles only have one batter in the lineup with a strikeout rate below 22% against lefties and they are well below average in all offensive categories against LHP. There are a couple other good lefties on this slate, but they have far tougher matchups for strikeouts, leaving Sale as the clear choice tonight for cash games.