DFS Alerts
Josh Donaldson (calf) scratched Tuesday; Johan Camargo replaces
Donaldson has been scratched from the Atlanta Braves original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the San Diego Padres due to a sore right calf. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Johan Camargo, who will now play third base and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which bumps Dansby Swanson all the way up to the two-hole, respectively. However, the remainder of the Braves lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Christopher Paddack at home this evening.
As reported by: Mark Bowman via Twitter Other tagged players: Johan Camargo
TBR-KCR postponed due to rain Tuesday
The game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals on Tuesday night has been postponed due to forecasted inclement weather throughout the remainder of the day and into the evening hours. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Wednesday, May 1 at 1:15 pm EST as part of a traditional doubleheader. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Tuesday’s daily fantasy slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: Rustin Dodd via Twitter BAL-CHW postponed due to rain Tuesday
The game between the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox on Tuesday night has been postponed due to forecasted inclement weather throughout the remainder of the day and into the evening hours. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Wednesday, May 1 at 4:10 pm EST as part of a traditional doubleheader. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Tuesday’s daily fantasy slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: Daryl Van Schouwen via Twitter Struggling Pitcher Faces Potent Offense
Anibal Sanchez has a 0-3 record with a 6.00 ERA this season for the Nationals, and this is a case where the underlying numbers are even worse than the surface stats. Sanchez’s 5.83 SIERA is the worst among all qualifiers this season, aided by a 5.33 BB/9, a 1.78 WHIP, and only a 6.67 K/9. Tonight Sanchez faces a Cardinals offense that ranks fourth in the league in OPS against right-handers. Matt Carpenter will be hitting leadoff and has a career .874 OPS against right-handed pitching, while Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong, and Marcell Ozuna are all GPP plays despite not having the platoon advantage.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna, Paul DeJong
Dangerous Offense Gets Platoon Advantage in Hitter-Friendly Ballpark
The Rangers have the highest implied run total on the slate facing Pittsburgh right-hander Jordan Lyles, and the left-handed power hitters at the top of their lineup are a large reason. Joey Gallo has 9 HRs in only 85 ABs already this season, Rougned Odor has a career .462 slugging percentage against right-handers in his career, Nomar Mazara has a career .453 slugging percentage against righties, and Shin-Soo Choo has been hammering right-handers for a .610 slugging percentage this season. Playing in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington, the Rangers – Pirates game has the highest run line of the night at 11 runs, and with the Rangers favored they should be a dangerous albeit popular GPP stack.
Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Shin-soo Choo, Rougned Odor Who is Griffin Canning?
A lot of people might reasonably assume that if the Angels had a worthwhile arm in the minors, why weren’t they up sooner considering the condition of this pitching staff? Well, Griffin Canning is likely a victim of service time manipulation, as he’s a fairly well-regarded prospect (50 FV grade, team #4 and overall #101 prospect according to Fangraphs), who’s generated a 25 K-BB% through three AAA starts this year after a 16.1% mark (5.49 ERA) in 13 starts there last year. The 23 year-old in a few weeks has moved quickly through the system since being drafted in the second round in 2017 and appears to be ready to contribute to the big league rotation at this point. He’ll debut in a strong spot at home against a Toronto offense that offers immense upside with an 84 wRC+ and 27.1 K% vs RHP this year. The addition of Vladimir Guerrero Jr (157 wRC+, 62.5 Hard% so far) will obviously improve this lineup, but they’re still going to strike out quite a bit (26.4% last seven days). Canning has averaged 20 batters per start, so he may only get through the lineup twice and last five innings, but may still have enough upside for consideration in a secondary DraftKings spot for $7.8K.
I Might Be The Only Person On Him Today
Kevin Roth is busy today and with the weather concerns in some of the games tonight, we’re potentially taking some good pitchers out of play. This could lead to higher ownership for Vincent Velasquez, and while I like this spot a lot for him, I’m going to be looking for some leverage in this range. Drew Pomeranz is throwing his curveball a lot, which to me suggest he’s finally healthy again. He has a 3.68 xFIP with a 26.7% strikeout rate this season, and the biggest concern is the walks. Nothing is perfect in this price range, but the upside is there against this Dodgers offense. Hernandez and Bellinger are the only two bats hitting left-handed pitching this season, and if they start Pederson because Pollock is still out, it’s an even bigger bump to Pomeranz. The risk is there for sure, but he makes for a really interesting tournament play on this slate.
High-Strikeout Pitcher Faces Difficult Offense
Gerrit Cole’s surface numbers don’t look as good this season with a 1-4 record and 4.71 ERA, but his 13.38 K/9 this season is almost a full strikeout better than his 12.40 K/9 mark from last season, and his 2.92 SIERA this year is almost identical to last season’s 2.91 SIERA. Tonight Cole takes on a tough Twins offense that leads the league in OPS and slugging percentage, but Cole and the Astros are solid -165 favorites in a game with a 7.5 run total. Cole’s matchup should drive his ownership down, but his strikeout upside is as high as anyone on the slate.
Home Run Or Strikeout
We have some really good value options tonight, which could lead to some of them being pretty popular. Franmil Reyes will not be popular on a 15-game slate, which is why I really like him for tournaments. Teheran is better against righties, but his average exit velocity, fly ball rate, and hard-hit rate suggest that we have a little upside opportunity here. In 75 PAs this season against righties, Reyes has a .299 ISO with a .339 wOBA and a 60% hard-hit rate. With Teheran allowing a lot of hard hits and Reyes hitting almost everything hard (10% soft contact rate), this is a great upside spot on a 15-game slate.
The Risk Is Always Massive
I’m always willing to take the risk on a young pitcher making his Major League debut, and I always try to let everyone know that the risk is massive. Tonight, we have a 22-year old making his Major League debut, and he’s been on the fast track for the Majors since he was drafted in 2017. He’s a top five prospect for the Angels and has performed well at every level. He had a 24.5% strikeout rate with a 12.2% swinging strike rate in 13 starts in AAA last season. He has a good fastball with an above average slider, which could certainly help him in this matchup against the Blue Jays.
Time To Break A Losing Streak
Perhaps a trip to Texas will be able to cure what ails the Pirates offense. Pittsburgh went 0-for-last week and has now lost eight games in a row to fall to 12-14 on the year. A breakout spot awaits against one of the worst pitchers in baseball, as Sampson has no prayer of success in Arlington with his profile. He never even logged a strikeout rate above 19% at any full minor league level, and it’s no surprise that he can’t miss bats at the MLB level. He allows a lot of hard contact and really isn’t that good at pretty much anything. The entire Pittsburgh lineup is in play here. I have tagged Gregory Polanco as a core play, as he sports the best overall data over the last two seasons with a .360 wOBA and .259 ISO against RHP.
Value At The Leadoff Spot
It was an ugly 2018 for Jason Vargas, though his advanced metrics looked a little better than his surface numbers. That trend has not reversed course so far this year, as Vargas has an ERA, SIERA, and xFIP all over 6.00, and he is allowing hitters to square up the ball with hard contact at an alarming 57% clip. His swinging strike rate is all the way down to 7.7%. Yikes. He should improve a bit with a larger sample size… provided that he can stay in the rotation. He simply isn’t a major league caliber starter at this point, so we have to be interested in some Cincinnati bats here. A big key on this slate is going to revolve around finding salary relief, so I do like Jose Peraza as an option this evening. I would expect him to stay in the leadoff spot, as he seems to be fitting in that role nicely. Peraza has six hits over the last four games and remains viable at $2,500 on FanDuel and $3,300 on DraftKings. Assuming he still grabs that leadoff spot, he is a fine point per dollar play this evening
Power Upside
The Red Sox finally got the bats rolling with a big game against the A’s last night (everyone except Jackie Bradley Jr., that is). Aaron Brooks has been solid if unspectacular for Oakland this season, but his strikeout upside is very limited, and it’s a tough ask for him to pitch well at Fenway Park against a deep lineup. Mookie Betts obviously leads the way with a .437 wOBA and .275 ISO against RHP since the start of last year, and J.D. Martinez isn’t far behind. Michael Chavis has played very well since his call up with impressive numbers, and he’s in the mix as a solid mid-range play despite an increasing price tag. The Red Sox have a 5.3 run implied team total and are certainly viable options tonight. I have tagged Betts as a core cash game play.
Perhaps in line for more strikeouts
German Marquez has seen nearly a five point drop in his strikeout rate (28.2% to 23.6%) this year from last and his 3.85 SIERA is 1.31 runs above his ERA with an 89.2 mph aEV, but there are some strong underlying numbers that should still make him a strong play tonight and they have little to do with Coors, although we should note that he’s allowed just one total run in his three road starts this year. First, 13.5 SwStr% is a full point higher than last season, while his 51 GB% is nearly four points higher than last year as well. This has helped him limit Barrels to 5.6% per BBE despite the higher aEV. While the Brewers are a dangerous offense (21.5 HR/FB vs RHP) in a positive run environment, it’s still a massively favorable park shift for Marquez and the Brewers also have a 26.5 K% vs RHP. Lastly, watch for the status of Christian Yelich, who hurt his back over the weekend. If he misses another game tonight, there’s no bat in the lineup, maybe even the league, who can come close to replacing his production. A matchup with a Yelich-less Milwaukee lineup for less than $10K could make Marquez very valuable tonight, especially considering he’s one of the few top priced pitchers who is safe from the rain tonight.
Situation plays to pitcher's strength
Julio Teheran has four quality starts out of six and at least six strikeouts five times this year. His 25.4 K% is the highest of his career and backed by his 12.2 SwStr% (also a career high) with batters making contact at only a 75.2% rate in the strike zone. This would certainly qualify as a resurgence if not for his 5.40 ERA and 4.57 SIERA. The problem is a 90.6 mph aEV and 12% walk rate. When you think about his issues though, they’re mostly against LHBs (.320 wOBA, .341 xwOBA last calendar year – RHBs .266 wOBA). Looking at the projected San Diego lineup, it only includes two of them. One is Greg Garcia (79 wRC+ vs RHP last calendar year) and the other is Eric Hosmer (117 wRC+). The weather is not likely pitcher friendly in Atlanta tonight (temps in 80s), but this is a predominantly right-handed Padres’ lineup with a 76 wRC+ and enormous 20.4 K-BB% vs RHP. Daily fantasy players probably shouldn’t play the Teheran card often, but this may be a rare spot where it fits.