DFS Alerts
Tough spot for a rookie pitcher
Chris Paddack has authored an impressive start to his major league career, which has Fangraphs’ #34 overall prospect with a 55 Future Value grade generating a 30.3 K% (third best on the board), 1.67 ERA, 15 LD%, 14.8 IFFB%, 7.4 HR/FB, 79 Z-Contact%, 84.6 mph aEV and .241 xwOBA. Despite all these impressive numbers, I’d like to recommend a fade here. Not only that, but perhaps some Atlanta bats to be contrarian. Here’s why. The strikeout rate is backed by an 11.7 SwStr% that is more above average than elite. His 3.56 SIERA is double his ERA and he’s rocking a completely unsustainable .138 BABIP. While we can’t really disparage any of his Statcast numbers, it seems we’re looking at a good, rather than great pitcher here and at a price tag that has already reached $9K on DraftKings. This still wouldn’t be so bad except for the fact that he hasn’t reached 90 pitches in a game yet. Also, this is a pretty terrible matchup for him. The early forecast calls for good hitting weather with temps in the 80’s in Atlanta and he’s facing a lineup that has made life miserable for some really good pitchers already. They know how to work a pitcher and that’s apparent in a 108 wRC+, 11.4 BB% and 17 HR/FB vs RHP. If you think that last number is a fluke, they also have a 24.5 Hard-Soft% against righties. While Paddack has a great aEV, Fangraphs has his hard hit rate above 40% against batters from either side of the plate and while he’s been stronger against RHBs (.231 xwOBA), that comes with just a 30% ground ball rate. Ownership on Braves’ bats should be extremely low here on a full slate and implied for a very modest 4.25 runs, but a GPP stack including Ozzie Albies (228 wRC+, 41.7 Hard% last seven days), Josh Donaldson (126 wRC+, .227 ISO, 50.8 Hard% vs RHP last calendar year), Freddie Freeman (133 wRC+, .171 ISO), and Ronald Acuna (127 wRC+, .223 ISO) would likely have the owner alone in the winner’s circle should it pay off against this highly respected rookie.
Other tagged players: Ronald Acuna, Josh Donaldson, Ozzie Albies, Chris Paddack
Low priced, upside arm in a strong spot
What Sandy Alcantara has done well is generate weak contact (85 mph aEV) and miss bats (12 SwStr%) at a well above a rate. This has helped him to a .281 xwOBA that’s fourth best on the board despite just a 17.1 K% and 7.3 K-BB%. In fact, he’s walked more than he’s struck out in two of his five starts. That being said, there is some upside here in a very strong matchup at home tonight. Not only do the Indians have just a 68 wRC+ and 25.9 K% vs RHP this year, but they will experience a massive park downgrade tonight and lose their DH in a National League park. Alcantara carries some risk, but should find a few strikeouts in this lineup and make a great GPP compliment to a higher priced arm for just $6.1K on DraftKings.
Safe SP #2 In This Matchup
There are a lot of holes in the Detroit lineup, and DFS players seem to be coming around to the trend of streaming any reasonably talented pitcher against them. On the whole, the Tigers own the highest strikeout rate in baseball this year at a whopping 27%, and they aren’t an overly patient bunch. That plays well into Velasquez’ skill set, which includes far too much nibbling for my general liking. I’m usually not a fan of Velasquez, as he rarely seems to pitch deep into games thanks to his ability to rack up pitch counts in a hurry. However, he does own a reasonable overall profile with above average strikeouts and a swinging strike rate around 10%. His advanced metrics do suggest regression, but as is the case with Bauer, the matchup tonight is too good to ignore. Velasquez is my favorite cash game mid-range arm, so I have tagged him as a core play… but I will likely be somewhat underweight in my GPP builds.
Elite Matchup For Upside
The eye test and the 2019 data doesn’t lie with the 2019 version of the Miami Marins. They’re just… that bad. The Marlins currently rank in the bottom five of the league in almost every offensive category. They rank dead last in walks and have the highest team strikeout rate against RHP. This is essentially a glorified AAA offense, and they have to face a budding ace tonight in Trevor Bauer. I will caution that Bauer’s advanced metrics do suggest a bit of regression, as his 1.99 ERA has been buoyed by some good luck and a low opposing BABIP. His SIERA of 4.20 is a bit of a cause for concern. However, he still owns a 28% strikeout rate and 11+% swinging strike rate on the year. The only major issue has been walks, and this Marlins team doesn’t draw many walks and strikes out a ton. It’s an absolutely fantastic matchup for Bauer, and when you consider the matchups and weather concerns for the other aces tonight, Bauer checks in as my favorite option on the board.
Matchup that's too strong to fade
Trevor Bauer walked six batters for the second time this season, while striking out a season low three Astros. The 28.3 K% is fine, but the 12.0 BB% has his estimators well above his 1.99 ERA due to a .222 BABIP and 87.9 LOB%. The 83.7 Z-Contact% remains impressive, but the 42.4 Z-O-Swing% further explains some walk issues. The news gets worse when you realize his 91.6 mph aEV is second worst on the board. If players want a reason to fade Bauer at the highest cost on the board, they may have some ammunition…in most matchups. However, the matchup is certainly not one of them. Not only does Bauer get a significant park upgrade in Miami, but the Marlins have a 70 wRC+ and 20.4 K-BB% vs RHP as a team this year. To put that into perspective, we’re just a month into the season and still only 19 qualified pitchers exceed a 20.4 K-BB%. On a full slate with several other pitchers in the $9-11K mark on either site, ownership shouldn’t be too much of an issue for any arm tonight. Despite his faults this year, this amazing matchup may still push Bauer to the top of the board and a decent value (though maybe not the best), even as the most expensive pitcher on the board.
I Just Have To
I have resisted the urge to click Aguilar’s name into the Core Plays, but he’s just in too many of my lineups, and with some other salary savers not showing up tonight, this savings is needed. There is so much fluke behind his early season numbers, the points per dollar upside is high. Yes, he’s been awful, and if you prefer to pivot to Yulieski Gurriel on FD or Nate Lowe on DK, that is fine, but I’ll roll with Aguilar, waiting for his .067 BABIP on 46% hard hits vs lefties to turn around.
A rare bright spot on a terrible team
John Means has been a rare bright spot for the O’s, allowing just two runs over 10 innings in his last two starts with a 15.3 SwStr% and 72.7 Z-Contact% on the season. He worked up to 92 pitches last time out and has a .283 xwOBA in 2019. Although a lot of his work has been out of the pen, his numbers are simply amazing (19.7 K-BB%, 1.8 Hard-Soft%) and this is a very winnable matchup against a White Sox offense with just a 90 wRC+, 19.7 K-BB% and 6.5 HR/FB vs LHP so far. Further in his favor, Weather Edge (premium subscription required) suggests some pretty pitcher friendly conditions in Chicago tonight. Players are likely going to pay up for their pitcher on FanDuel, but an affordable secondary arm on DraftKings is going to be useful tonight and Means is the second cheapest arm at $7K tonight.
Top prospect has looked strong and could be a bargain tonight
Mike Soroka makes his third start and while he’s yet to complete six innings, he did throw 109 pitches last time out, alleviating most workload concerns, at least for future starts. He’s struck out 13 of 49 batters with an impressive 27.9 Z-O-Swing% and 55.2 GB% and has not allowed a single barrel yet with just 24.1% of contact above a 95 mph EV. He has a plus matchup with the Padres (78 wRC+, 21.2 K-BB% vs RHP), who may have lost Fernando Tatis Jr. yesterday. Without making too much of a two game sample, Soroka’s been an average pitcher (13.6 K-BB%) seven career starts now and should only get better. Fangraphs rates him as the #36 prospect in all of baseball with a 55 Future Value grade. Without workload limitations, he could be a bargain in this favorable matchup, especially at his DraftKings price ($8.6K). He’s the third most expensive pitcher on the board on FanDuel ($9.2K).
Looked more like his old self last time out
Zack Wheeler struggled with control, walking at least three in three straight until completely dominating the Phillies last time out. He struck out 11 without walking anyone in seven shutout innings, finally looking like the Zack Wheeler of late 2018 for the first time this season. His strikeout rate for the season is now up to 26%, but his ERA (4.85) and SIERA (4.22) are still above four, while his 89.3 mph aEV is sharp contrast from last season’s 84.7 mph, which was top 4% in the league. Good news is that his 51.3 GB% is his highest mark since 2014. While his 9.9 SwStr% is just average as well, it was up to 14.3% in his last start. Perhaps a few more starts like his last will return him to his 2018 numbers and he’s in a great spot to do just that tonight in what might be the top matchup on the board. The Reds have just a 66 wRC+ and 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP this season and face an extremely negative park shift. On a strong pitching slate, Wheeler is outside the three highest priced pitchers on either site, while his upside could make him the top value in this spot.
Low ERA is deceiving against a poor contact profile
Tanner Roark has allowed exactly one ER in three straight, but hasn’t exceeded 5.1 IP in any start and his 21.4 K% is not at all supported by a 6.4 SwStr%. In fact, it hasn’t been above 6.1% since his first start. His 4.76 SIERA is a run and a half above his 3.24 ERA. He’s also sitting on 36.5 LD%, 91.2 Z-Contact%, and 46.1 Z-O-Swing%, all bottom two or worst on the board, as is his .364 xwOBA. Generally known for generating soft contact, Roark’s 90.4 mph aEV is second worst on the board as well. This may be a spot to load up on Mets bats. Still an extremely negative run environment, the home team has allowed a 122 wRC+ in their park this season. Even going back to last season, LHBs have a .358 wOBA against Roark over the last calendar year now. Whether it’s Jeff McNeil (141 wRC+, .128 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) or Brandon Nimmo (146 wRC+, .221 ISO) at the top of the lineup, either should line up very well against Roark and if we’re talking about hard contact, we have to mention the big right-handed rookie, Pete Alonso (149 wRC+, .278 ISO), who’s 22.4% Barrels/BBE is third best in the majors.
Other tagged players: Tanner Roark, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo High Leverage Pitcher
Eduardo Rodriguez is currently projected to be 7% owned on FanDuel and 12% owned on DraftKings. You could easily argue that a number of Oakland hitters, especially Khris Davis on DK, will garner higher ownership than Rodriguez which makes him an interesting roster in tournaments from a leverage perspective. Eduardo is the owner of the fourth highest 90th-percentile projection via Derek Carty’s projection system, THE BAT, and has shown strikeout upside in the past with a 26.4 K% last season. A matchup against a righty heavy Oakland lineup is less than ideal for ERod but the upside is still there if everything is clicking for the southpaw on Monday night.
Not Buying It
Things I’m not buying? Zach Davies early season success. Davies is the owner of a minuscule 1.65 ERA after five starts but his underlying numbers paint a different pitcher. Davies hasn’t been able to miss bats this season with a measly 6.3 SwStr% and advanced run prevention metrics say that he’s essentially been extremely lucky to start the season (4.75 xFIP, 5.08 SIERA). Miller Park is no Coors but it rates positively for power from both sides of the plate. Nolan Arenado (8% FD, 4% DK), Trevor Story (12% FD, 7% DK), Charlie Blackmon (11% FD, 6% DK), David Dahl (6% FD, 4% DK), and Daniel Murphy (10% FD, 5% DK) currently project to offer a bigger ownership discount on DraftKings but make for strong tournament options across the industry.
Other tagged players: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, David Dahl, Daniel Murphy Pass the Eye Test
Monday’s probable starter with the highest swinging strike rate to start the season? John Means at 15.3%. Means trails both Corbin and Verlander with a 26.7% strikeout rate but is significantly cheaper than both guys and allows you to approach lineup construction differently by allocating more salary to your hitters. I don’t expect Means to sustain his current rate of success but the majority of his underlying numbers pass the eye test and I do think he’s at the very least playable in tournaments.
No Obvious Spend
I don’t see any one top bat that clearly stands out on this slate. I can make about the same case for Ronald Acuna, Charlie Blackmon, Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Juan Soto and so on and so forth. If just picking one bat to spend on, I’m going to start with the Astros, facing a control challenged fly ball pitcher in Jake Odorizzi. The Astros are loaded with contact hitters who are better against fly ball pitchers, but it’s Alex Bregman on top with his team leading .243 ISO, .404 wOBA and more walks than strikeouts since the start of 2018 against right-handed pitching.
Site Specific Values
On FD, first base is a position with some great value options on this slate. Personally, I am sticking with Jesus Aguilar who is all the way down at minimum salary from his poor start to the season. But, the dude has an .067 BABIP on 47% hard hits and 26% line drives against lefties, he has nowhere to go but up. However, if you are sitting it out on him, we’ve got Daniel Murphy in the same game and also Yulieski Gurriel for Houston. Murphy faces Zach Davies, who has more walks than strikeouts against left-handed batters this season.