DFS Alerts

Juan Soto (back) scratched Wednesday; Michael Taylor replaces

Soto has been scratched from the Washington Nationals original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals due to back spasms. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Michael Taylor, who will now play center field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Howie Kendrick, Matt Adams, Yan Gomes, Carter Kieboom, and Wilmer Difo each up one batting position to third, fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh, respectively. However, the remainder of the Nationals lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Miles Mikolas at home this evening.

Cal Quantrill is part of such a loaded system in San Diego, that despite a 50 Future Value grade, he’s just the 12th best prospect in the system (127 overall via Fangraphs). Although he has a 22 K% in five starts at AAA this season, he hasn’t seen 20% since high A-ball, where he started 2017 previously. He’s also only averaging five innings per start and been between 20-24 batters in each and every start. This does not appear to be a pitcher with much upside and in a tough matchup against the Braves (106 wRC+, 11.1 BB%, 15.9 HR/FB vs RHP), this may not be an advantageous spot for daily fantasy players to deploy him, though the $5.5K cost does make him at least slightly attractive in a potential secondary role on DraftKings, considering the number of high priced arms on the board tonight.

Jacob deGrom still leads the league with a 37.7 K%, has a career 23.6 K-BB% at home

Lost in the panic over Jacob deGrom’s 4.85 ERA is his major league leading 37.7 K%. He’s still missing tons of bats even if he he’s walked seven over his last two starts and allowed five HRs over his last three. He did miss a start with some elbow concern, but an MRI came back clean and his velocity remains intact. Another thing to note, which may be nothing, is that each of his last three outings have had delayed starts due to rain. While light rain is in the forecast again for tonight, it’s unlikely to cause a delay, so he should finally be able to prepare with his usual routine. This is also a great “get right” spot for deGrom. He’s at home, a park where he has a career 23.6 K-BB%, has a pitcher friendly umpire behind the plate, and is facing an offense with a 69 wRC+ and 16.0 K-BB% vs RHP this year. Lines makers certainly believe in deGrom as the Reds have the lowest implied run line on the slate (2.76 runs). Due to recent struggles, deGrom’s cost seems slightly depressed. He’s only the second most expensive pitcher on the board, but may be one of the top values.

Anthony DeSclafani has a career 15.1 HR/FB vs LHBs

Anthony DeSclafani has been on a roll, allowing just one ER over his last 12 innings with 12 strikeouts. The common theme against the Padres and Cardinals in those starts is right-handed predominance and that’s key here because DeSclafani has a substantial platoon splits (over 100 points by wOBA and xwOBA over the last calendar year). Over that span, LHBs have a .393 wOBA and 30.4 GB% against him. For his career, they have a 15.1 HR/FB. The difference tonight is that he will be facing a lineup top heavy with left-handed batters. In his favor is a park upgrade and a pitcher friendly umpire, but the projected lineup for the Mets contains not only three LHBs in the top half, but three quality LHBs in Jeff McNeil (145 wRC+, .128 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Brandon Nimmo (144 wRC+, .221 ISO) and Michael Conforto (129 wRC+, .220 ISO). Robinson Cano (119 wRC+, .203 ISO) belongs in that group too if he’s active. With an implied run line below four, this should be a low ownership situation as well.

Caleb Smith tops the board with a .273 xwOBA and 83.4 mph aEV

Caleb Smith has gone exactly six innings in four straight starts, whiffing at least six batters in all five of his starts this year. On a board full of studs, he still stands out with a 33.9 K% and 15.6 SwStr% behind only Jacob deGrom and/or Max Scherzer in either of those categories. His ERA and estimators are all around or below three with batters making contact only 75.9% of the time inside the strike zone. If that’s not impressive enough, his 83.4 mph aEV and .273 xwOBA are both lowest on the board as well. There’s not a single area where Smith doesn’t compare favorably with the best pitchers on the board or in the league even and then you can add a fantastic matchup in a great park. The Indians have just a 65 wRC+, 27.7 K% and 6.9 HR/FB vs LHP this year. If all that isn’t enough, the line on this game has dropped significantly despite the majority of bets coming in on Cleveland. Caleb Smith is within $400 of $9K on either site tonight and may very likely be the top value on the board.

Martin, We Have A Problem

Houston piled up 11 runs on 15 hits in Minnesota last night and they are right back on top of the list tonight. Martin Perez has improved, but this is still a below average pitcher against right-handed batters, and Houston is a nightmare matchup for lefties. Alex Bregman is my favorite option here, but we can save some salary further down in the lineup, where the early season low BABIP for Yulieski Gurriel has kept his salary low. I see no cause for concern with Gurriel. He is striking out just 12.4% of the time, with a crazy high 33% line drive rate that makes his low .267 BABIP look even flukier.

They Are All Core Pitchers

The pitching is so great tonight, I’m going to mark three different core options, but I could give you six that I feel great about. Caleb Smith has been every bit as much of an ace this season as Scherzer or deGrom, and even more so in terms of real life results. He has a 2.17 ERA with a 2.99 SIERA on the strength of 33.9% strikeouts and just 6.4% walks. Helping him beyond his own skills, the Indians just aren’t very good against left-handed pitching. They have three good right-handed bats, and that’s it. They lose a DH in a pitcher friendly ballpark, and come in ranked dead last in the league in ISO against lefties this season. I like both pitchers in this game.

One Of The Best Spots Tonight

The Phillies are one of the few high end offenses tonight, facing lefty Daniel Norris and a bad Tigers bullpen. Since the start of 2018, Norris has allowed a .346 wOBA and .186 ISO to right-handed batters with 41% hard hits and just 33% ground balls. Andrew McCutchen has both the highest hard hit rate and line drive rate in the Phillies lineup, and from the top of the order he has upside for all formats.

Matchup Makes The Difference

It’s a close call between Aaron Nola and Corey Kluber, both in very strong matchups tonight. I do prefer Kluber overall going into Miami, but on FanDuel, the salary difference is significant enough for me to switch to Nola if needing a little savings. The Tigers are not a good team against right-handed pitching (28th in ISO, 25th in wOBA, 4th highest K%) and they lose the DH spot in an NL park. While Nola’s strikeouts have not been elite, he is still inducing soft contact and has three straight seasons prior to this with a 25%+ strikeout rate. Even if the strikeouts don’t come back tonight, he can find enough easy innings to pay off this salary.

Everything Looks Fine Here

Jacob deGrom and Maz Scherzer headline a strong pitching slate tonight. There is some cause for concern with the recent elbow scare from deGrom, but his last start, despite the runs allowed, looked completely fine. He simply suffered a .500 BABIP no just 20% hard hits, clearly a fluky number. His 37.7% K rate for the season put him ahead of Scherzer, and he has a much friendlier pitching environment tonight. If paying for an ace in cash games, I’ll start with deGrom.

Matchup Makes The Difference

This is just a loaded pitching slate. On two-pitcher sites, my primary goal is to get two of the top pitchers, so that will mean going down to Corey Kluber, despite his less than stellar start to the season. His 12.5% swinging strikes imply that the stuff is fine, and his control has been so good for so many years, that I’m willing to assume it comes back. A trip to Miami can cure a lot of issues. Even though they’ve been tough on Trevor Bauer and Max Scherzer in the past couple weeks, this is a team that ranks 29th in runs, ISO and wOBA against right-handed pitching along with the highest strikeout rate in the league. Kluber is playable in all formats tonight, with my lean being to use him in cash games.

The Obvious High-End Stack

If you are looking for the most obvious GPP stack of the night, that designation goes to the Braves. The Padres are calling up a relative non-prospect in Cal Quantrill to make his debut this evening, and he doesn’t project as anything better than a back end rotation filler. The Braves power bats are in a great spot here, and I’m willing to stack up any portion of this lineup, as their five run implied team total is the best you will find on this slate. Albies, Freeman, and Acuna are all high upside home run threats, while you can add in a value bat or two to complete a full GPP stack.

Affordable, Sneaky Power Stack

Vladimir Guerrero hasn’t made the immediate splash that everyone expected, and it has ironically been the “other” third baseman in Brandon Drury who has been raking for this team of late. In any case, I like the Blue Jays as a sneaky late night stack this evening. They are facing a pitcher in Felix Pena who has a strong fly ball lean and allows a lot of hard contact, bringing opposing power into play. The Blue Jays carry relatively affordable price tags and won’t attract a ton of attention in this spot. Tellez and Grichuk have the best power profiles, and you can continue to ride Drury’s hot bat as well (or bank on perhaps the first home run from Mr. Guerrero). I like the GPP appeal here.

Top Point Per Dollar Play

It’s been a rough go to start this season for Aaron Nola, but his stuff has looked better over his last two outings, and he has a 13/2 K/BB ratio in those starts. That’s improvement. He has one of the best batted ball profiles in the league, as he has never had a season where he has allowed a hard contact rate of greater than 30%. That’s remarkable for a pitcher who has been in the league for 4+ years. Expect his turnaround to continue tonight against a weak, free swinging Tigers offense. Nola is definitely in play for all formats.

Wednesday's Top Arm

It’s a close call at the top tonight between Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, but for my dollars I will take deGrom. He has a much better matchup at home against the Reds compared to Scherzer’s matchup with the red-hot Cardinals. Don’t be fooled by deGrom’s suspect surface numbers, as he has been victimized by a ridiculous .389 BABIP so far this year. His strikeout rate remains elite at 37.7%, and his SIERA and xFIP are both under 3.00 — right in line with his marks from a year ago. The matchup is prime for a rebound as a home favorite against a below average Cincinnati offense, making deGrom a priority arm for me this evening.