DFS Alerts
Sneaky Leverage Stack
The Mets are a team that I will be targeting today against who I think will be one of the more popular SP2’s on DraftKings, Brandon Woodruff. This game will be played in Milwaukee, which is a hitters ballpark. It looks like we should have some wind blowing out to right field which should be a plus for the lefties. Woodruff has been pretty solid this year but one thing he has struggled with has been left handed batters. He is giving up a 426 wOBA, 236 ISO, and a 50% hard contact rate to left handed batters. I like this spot for guys like Cano, Conforto, and McNeil.
Sneaky Leverage Stack
The Mets are a team that I will be targeting today against who I think will be one of the more popular SP2’s on DraftKings, Brandon Woodruff. This game will be played in Milwaukee, which is a hitters ballpark. It looks like we should have some wind blowing out to right field which should be a plus for the lefties. Woodruff has been pretty solid this year but one thing he has struggled with has been left handed batters. He is giving up a 426 wOBA, 236 ISO, and a 50% hard contact rate to left handed batters. I like this spot for guys like Cano, Conforto, and McNeil.
Sneaky Leverage Stack
The Mets are a team that I will be targeting today against who I think will be one of the more popular SP2’s on DraftKings, Brandon Woodruff. This game will be played in Milwaukee, which is a hitters ballpark. It looks like we should have some wind blowing out to right field which should be a plus for the lefties. Woodruff has been pretty solid this year but one thing he has struggled with has been left handed batters. He is giving up a 426 wOBA, 236 ISO, and a 50% hard contact rate to left handed batters. I like this spot for guys like Cano, Conforto, and McNeil.
Favorite One Off
Joey Gallo is one of my favorite one offs on the slate today. I feel like today everyone is going to spend up for Mike Trout who is obviously a great play, but could make Gallo go a little under the radar. He will go up against the right handed pitcher Mike Leake who has given up 8 home runs in his last 4 starts the season. Gallo has a 407 ISO, 463 wOBA, and a 71% hard contact rate against right handed pitching this year. He should be a great pivot today in GPPs.
Good Pitcher In A Tough Matchup
If you’re looking for a pitcher with upside in tournaments, it’s Jon Gray. I think we see lower ownership because of the matchup and the fact that Atlanta is still a good hitters ball park. Gray has done a good job this year keeping the ball on the ground with almost a 60% ground ball rate. Gray has the ability to rack up some strikeouts and maybe we get a little lower ownership with his matchup today, so I like it for GPPs.
J.D. Martinez (back) scratched Saturday; Steve Pearce replaces
Martinez has been scratched from the Boston Red Sox original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays due to back spasms. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Steve Pearce, who will now handle the designated hitter duties and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which bumps Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and Michael Chavis each up one batting position to fifth, sixth, and seventh, respectively. However, the remainder of the Red Sox lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Charlie Morton at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Jen McCaffrey via Twitter Other tagged players: Steve Pearce
Contrarian Early Slate Stack
With lots of high totals on the early slate, the Rays implied 4.18 total is actually the 5th lowest on the slate. Though they are facing a very good pitcher in David Price, the Rays move from pitcher-friendly Tropicana to a much more hitter-friendly Fenway Park, where the wind is blowing out at 15 MPH today. The Rays have the 5th best xwOBA over the last 10 days at .350 and have some good bats vs. LHP at the top of their order. Tommy Pham (.438 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), Avisail Garcia (.358), Daniel Robertson (.353), Yandy Diaz (.323) are all solid options and can be had at reasonable prices, especially on Fanduel. Mike Zunino is batting 5th and has a whopping .680 xwOBA over the last 10 days. Tommy Pham has also been hot with a .465 xwOBA over the last 10 days. Daniel Robertson stands out as the best value, batting 3rd and costing just $2.3k on Fanduel.
Other tagged players: Yandy Diaz, Daniel Robertson, Avisail Garcia, Mike Zunino, David Price
Wild Bour
I’ve rostered Justin Bour a number of times already this season to no avail and I’m tempted to go back to the well on Saturday night as he draws a road matchup against Jorge Lopez. Despite his early season struggles, Bour can provide you with a lot of pop for his price tag as he’s crushed right-handed pitching to the tune of a 126 wRC+ and .225 ISO for his career.
Cautiously Optimistic
I’m not overly interested in playing Clayton Kershaw over Noah Syndergaard on single pitching sites but I think there’s some merit in rostering both guys where you’re required to start two pitchers. Kershaw has looked sharper this season through two starts but his velocity is still down quite a bit from where he was sitting in 2017. Regardless of if Kershaw’s early season success is sustainable or not he draws a favorable home matchup against a Pirates offense that has been terrible against left-handed pitching this season.
Worth Paying Up for SP on Early Slate
Jose Berrios has started off 2019 with a 2.97 ERA / 3.86 SIERA and 19.2 K-BB%, falling in line with what he did in 2018. He gets a matchup at home vs. the Orioles who have exceeded expectations so far in 2019, but are still a weak hitting team with just a 91 wRC+ vs. RHP. The Orioles have just 1 batter (Trey Mancini) who has an xwOBA > .330 vs. RHP since 2018 in their starting lineup. Berrios has been much better when pitching at home, giving up a paltry .287 xwOBA at home versus a .334 xwOBA in away games. The Orioles don’t K too much with just a 20.4% K rate vs. RHP this year, but Berrios still has plenty of upside in a matchup where he should have a good shot to pitch deep into the game. He also has a good shot at getting the ‘W’ with the Twins currently sitting at -245 favorites. Berrios is $10k on Draftkings / $10.1k on Fanduel and seems more than worth the price given the lack of safe options on the early slate.
Other tagged players: Trey Mancini This Team MASHES Lefties
Three good April starts got Mike Minor some attention, but don’t fall for the trap. Oakland got to him a bit in his last start, and this is a brutal matchup against a Mariners team that leads the league in almost every category against LHP so far this year. Six guys have wOBA marks over. 400 against lefties, including Haniger, Beckham, Bruce, Encarnacion, Vogelbach, and Narvaez. Yes, some of this is sample size. However, this offense has been blasting through expectations. You can’t go wrong with the middle of the order here, and I’m actually tagging Encarnacion as a core play with his $3,800 price tag on both FD and DK tonight. That feels too cheap.
Good Floor, Best Ceiling
Syndergaard is Saturday night’s top option in terms of raw projection and you can get him at a significant discount from Clayton Kershaw who still has a lot of question marks surrounding his current skill-set. Syndergaard draws the tougher matchup against a potent but whiff-heavy Brewers lineup (26.4 K% vs RHP). Thor’s strikeout ability should give him a strong floor to pair with the highest ceiling on the slate.
Buy Low While You Can
The problem the Rangers have is that a lot of their big hitters (looking at you, Joey Gallo) tend to strike out too much, making it hard for the team to string hits together in order to sustain big innings. Tonight, they get to face Mike Leake, who has a 16% strikeout rate for his career and has never had a 20% strikeout rate in any single season. That’s music to my ears when it comes to targeting the Rangers bats. It’s a massive upgrade for Gallo and Odor, and they are two of my favorite options tonight. Odor has struggled with inconsistency and injury this year, but this is a great spot to buy low. He’s healthy again now, and he should get back on track against Leake tonight.
Still The Best
Mr. Trout is absolutely a priority play for me tonight. His floor is about the highest you will see from an MLB player, and he draws a fine matchup tonight against Jorge Lopez and the Royals. Lopez is an average to below average major league arm who doesn’t miss a lot of bats and has allowed a 40%+ hard contact rate in his major league sample size. On a slate that is somewhat starved for elite offensive options, I will start my cash game builds with Trout this evening.
Weak Position, Potential Opportunities
Kris Bryant is both reasonably priced across the industry and also headlines a weak position. Bryant has had a slow start to the season by his standards but has showed signs of heating up, including hitting a long ball in last night’s contest. Bryant should find himself with a handful of run scoring/producing opportunities for a Cubs team with the highest implied run total on the slate (5.2).