DFS Alerts
High expectations despite a tough park
Shelby Miller has been awful by virtually every single metric this season (5.0 SwStr%, 90.1 Z-Contact%, 44.3 Z-O-Swing%, 7.63 ERA, 7.51 SIERA, 90 mph aEV, .426 xwOBA) and while he does get a significant park bump outside of Texas tonight, the Mariners have shown they have no problems putting runs on the board at home, scoring in the double digits last night. The Mariners are right at five implied runs currently and that total is good for third best on the board. Further, there is an extremely hitter friendly umpire assigned to this game. Batters from either side of the plate are above both a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Miller since his return from surgery last year (eight starts). It’s not a large sample size, but large enough for players to confidently fire away on some Seattle bats. Dan Vogelbach (191 wRC+, .368 ISO, 52.2 Hard% vs RHP last calendar year) has been murdering baseballs this season and should be worth his increasing price tag. Omar Narvaez (140 wRC+, .185 ISO) is similarly increasing in cost and generally bats lower in the lineup, but should still have some appeal at a terrible position. Domingo Santana (138 wRC+, .221 ISO), Edwin Encarnacion (124 wRC+, .238 ISO), Mitch Haniger (125 wRC+, .217 ISO) and Jay Bruce (96 wRC+, .183 ISO, but 270 wRC+, 57.1 Hard% last seven days) should round out the top half of a strong lineup tonight.
Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Mitch Haniger, Omar Narvaez, Edwin Encarnacion, Shelby Miller, Domingo Santana
Annoyingly In Play
Curtis Granderson is going to be kind of annoyingly in play any time the Marlins take on a right handed pitcher. Granderson has wide platoon splits for his career but has aways had success against right handed pitchers posting a 127 wRC+ and .233 ISO. That’s a ton of pop for someone with a price tag as low as his. The matchup is a favorable one for Granderson as well, with Jerad Eickhoff allowing a .364 wOBA and 4.92 xFIP to lefty hitters for his career.
Back For More
The Twins find themselves as the high total team of the night after destroying Alex Cobb last week in Baltimore. While it shouldn’t be that bad every time for Cobb, his low strikeouts can cause trouble against teams with fly ball power like the Twins. Cobb’s best asset is his 50% ground balls to righties, but Nelson Cruz and teammate C.J. Cron have no trouble getting the ball in the air. Cruz has a .237 ISO on 41% hard hits against righties the past two seasons and looks underpriced on FD. If we lose the Phillies game to weather, Cruz is a cheaper pivot from Bryce Harper on all sites.
Good Contact
Kendrys Morales has been disappointing from a fantasy perspective so far this season but the big fella is making good contact – his soft contact rate is only 4% (!!) to start the season. Morales ranks well on Statcast leaderboards with the 17th highest average exit velocity (93.4 mph) to start the year, just one spot below Cody Bellinger. Morales is unlikely to see his ownership top 3% on Friday’s monster slate and I love him as a buy low candidate with plenty of power upside for tournaments.
Justus Served
Before I get into any analysis on Justus Sheffield I just want to point out to the Rays that it’s not that hard to announce who your long man is going to be for a game. The Mariners announced that Yusei Kikuchi will be used as an opener on Friday night and he’ll be followed by Sheffield who will be used in long relief. Sheffield has strong pedigree and has shown tons of strikeout upside in the Minors but his success, or lack thereof, will depend on his control. Sheffield is worth throwing into your tournament mix on DraftKings – he’s not available on FanDuel.
Dominant Strikeout Pitcher Faces High-Strikeout Team
San Diego has the third-highest K% in MLB against right-handed pitching this season, and tonight the Padres travel to Washington to take on the pitcher who leads the National League in strikeouts (and has led the league in strikeouts the past three seasons as well). Max Scherzer’s 4.45 ERA is higher than we are used to seeing, but his 2.75 SIERA is right in line with last year’s 2.71 SIERA, and his 12.25 K/9 is actually the highest of his career. The Nationals are strong -180 favorites tonight, and no pitcher on the slate has as much strikeout upside as Max Scherzer.
Better IRL
When scrolling through pitching pricing for Friday’s slate both Kyle Hendricks and Miles Mikolas stuck out as just a little too cheap. Both guys fit into a similar classification for me – good real life pitchers, average fantasy options. The latter is true because of their low strikeout rates, while Hendricks has flashed more upside than Mikolas this season with a solid 22.6 K%. Strikeouts aside, this stands out as a solid run prevention spot for both pitchers which has me interested in both guys in tournaments. Hendricks is my preferred option of the two and is also currently projected to be lower owned (3% DK vs 5% DK) by a small margin.
Other tagged players: Miles Mikolas Top Prospect Adds Power to Potent Lineup
Mike Fiers’ 8.28 ERA is the second-worst ERA of any pitcher with at least 20 IP this season, and he pairs that ERA with a 1.72 WHIP and 5.09 SIERA. Tonight, Fiers faces a Toronto team that has the fourth-highest implied run total (4.75) on the slate, and a number of dangerous power hitters. Against right-handed pitchers since the start of 2018, Justin Smoak has 24 HRs in 384 ABs, Randal Grichuk has 22 HRs in 353 ABs, and Teoscar Hernandez has 14 HRs in 386 ABs. Top prospect Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., could be making his major league debut tonight as well and would round out a four-hitter stack.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez Nobody Knows
This is a very interesting situation on DK tonight. We have not seen this type of pricing at all this season. With Seattle using Kikuchi as an opener, we are going to see rookie Justus Sheffield used as the primary pitcher for minimum salary. He is a highly regarded prospect, but the early season numbers in Triple-A have been awful, making this a tougher decision. The bottom line is that we have no idea if he’s going to be good tonight, but we do know he is $4,000. If he throws well, certainly possible with his pedigree, it will be hard to win without him.
A Little Too Cheap
I love the salary for Hyun-Jin Ryu on two-pitcher sites tonight, and I’ll start by trying to pair him with one of Paxton/Scherzer in cash games. While his pitch count is always a little shaky, he is so efficient with his pitches, that 85-90 from him is almost like 100 from anyone else. He has walked just two batters in 20 innings to go with his 23 strikeouts and the few home runs he has allowed have not been an issue with so few baserunners allowed. This Pittsburgh team just doesn’t enough power to be afraid of and they strike out more against lefties than they do against righties.
Aces, Aces, Aces
It’s a loaded pitching slate up top, and for me the choice comes down to Max Scherzer and James Paxton. You can’t go wrong either way, but when in doubt, play the pitcher in San Francisco. James Paxton has been at the top of his game, with back-to-back 12-K performances, having allowed just five hits, two walks and no runs in his last 14 innings. Now he travels to the best pitching park in the league to face an already low power Giants team. He is where I will start tonight, followed closely by Scherzer.
Birds Can Fly
Anthony Desclafani was already a home run prone pitcher, and this new era of home runs is not doing him any favors. After a 1.88 HR/9 in 2018, he’s up to 2.33 this season, and since the start of last year has allowed a goofy .290 ISO and .394 wOBA to left-handed batters. Matt Carpenter hits the ball hard and in the air, and if BvP is your thing, he’s even got that going for him, with a 1.536 OPS in 22 career AB against Desclafani. Personally, the BvP doesn’t matter to me, but the skills do.
If The Weather Holds
Hopefully the rain will clear out in Philly, while leaving the wind to blow out towards right. Jose Urena has always had significant splits, as a solid pitcher to righties, but just a below average strikeout pitcher who can’t limit hard hits to lefties. Bryce Harper has the power to do all the damage with one swing and the patience to take walks and score runs if getting pitched around. I would use him in any format tonight.
Overtaxed Bullpen to Follow Struggling Starter Against Potent Offense
The Rangers bullpen has struggled with a 5.42 ERA and 19 HRs allowed this season, and has now pitched an astounding 18 innings over the past three days. Last night the Rangers relied on catcher Jeff Mathis to pitch the final inning of the game, and he was their most effective reliever in the game against the potent Mariners offense. Tonight the Rangers start Shelby Miller (7.63 ERA, 2.22 WHIP) and I’ll be again targeting the middle of the Seattle offense, keeping an eye on whether Jay Bruce is in the lineup and also looking at Daniel Vogelbach, Domingo Santana, Omar Narvaez, and Mitch Haniger.
Other tagged players: Domingo Santana, Omar Narvaez, Mitch Haniger Not as strong as his ERA, but still rosterable in great matchup
Max Fried has allowed just four runs over 24.1 innings in his four starts, though he’s missing bats at a below average rate (17.3 K%, 9.2 SwStr%). Even allowing a single HR, his FIP is 1.77 points above his 1.38 ERA with the HR normalizers (xFIP, SIERA) both around three runs higher. While the .247 BABIP and 86.5 LOB% are likewise unsustainable, the BABIP profile includes a 55.3 GB% and 18.4 LD%, which are both among the best marks on the board today and his .273 xwOBA is still quite strong, even if it’s still 32 points above his actual mark. So, no, Max Fried is not quite this good, but can still be DFS useful in this great matchup. The Rockies have a 45 wRC+, 23.7 K-BB%, 7.1 HR/FB outside Coors and 54 wRC+, 20.2 K-BB%, 7.6 HR/FB vs LHP this year. While these are both obviously small sample measurements at this point, we can be quite confident that the Rockies are below average and perhaps well below average considering they’ve also been a strong road matchup against for several seasons. Fried is certainly rosterable, but no great deal at $8K or above. More encouragement, Fried has been above 95 pitches in each of his last two starts.