DFS Alerts
To Vlad or not to Vlad
Happy Vlady Jr. day to all our Canadian friends out there. The question for daily fantasy players is whether to Vlad or not tonight. Perhaps you have not heard that he’s simply destroyed pitching everywhere he’s gone (175 wRC+ at AAA last season, 186 in 33 PAs this year). That part is simple, but let’s explore this from the opposing pitcher’s standpoint. Mike Fiers has been terrible this season. He’s allowed exactly six runs in three straight starts and at least five with a HR in four of six overall. He’s missing fewer bats than usual (17 K%) and although his ERA is well above his estimators, they’re all still sitting firmly above five. Statcast suggests the contact profile is not too bad (.349 xwOBA is 45 points below actual) with a decent 87 mph aEV, but he’s a fly ball pitcher (41.7 GB%) with a park downgrade tonight, so the answer is…Yes, some Vlad Jr. exposure is justifiable for sure. Of course, you won’t be alone on this, but DFS is more about fun than profit, is it not? And who doesn’t want to watch and root for the junior Guerrero, who’s already pushed Mike Trout off the pedestal and claimed the title of best player in the majors before he’s even made his debut. Guerrero costs a reasonable $4.3K on DraftKings and $3.2K on FanDuel and if the hype is right, he won’t be in that price range for long.
Other tagged players: Mike Fiers
Is there reason to worry about Max Scherzer?
Max Scherzer’s 4.45 ERA has some people concerned. He has at least seven strikeouts in all five starts this season and has gone through the order at least three times (27 BF) in four of five. However, he has allowed at least three runs in three straight starts, so let’s see if we can find what, if anything, is plaguing him.
By velocity and spin rate, he’s throwing the same pitches at the same speed at the same frequencies. His 32.6 K% and 16.4 SwStr% remain as elite as always. In fact, he’s allowed just a single HR over this three game stretch and his ERA estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) are all over a run and a half below his ERA for the season, in the mid-twos. The batted ball profile does show some changes, including a league average 45.2 GB% about 10 points higher than it’s ever been with the Nationals. This is not cause for concern, but along with his 23.8 LD%, might explain a higher BABIP. Although, certainly not a .395 BABIP. It should be mentioned that he’s also been pitching with one of the worst defenses in 2019 behind him (.314 BABIP, -12.4 UZR/150). His 88.0 mph aEV is around league average, a bit higher than we’re used to seeing from him, but still fine and generating a .283 xwOBA, some 37 points below his actual. Lastly, he’s sitting on a 63.5 LOB%, more than 16 points below his worst mark as a National.
The conclusion here is that there have been a few alterations in his batted ball/contact profile that may or may not be signs of aging, but he’s still rocking an amazing 29.9 K-BB% with an unsustainable and undeserved .395 BABIP. Perhaps the nearly 35 year-old future Hall of Famer is beginning to move away from his absolutely peak, but there’s no reason not to expect him to continue pitching at a Cy Young worthy level this year as he has for nearly the last decade.
As for today’s matchup, he’s in great shape against the Padres (78 wRC+, 19.7 K-BB% vs RHP) at home with the Premium Weather Edge tool suggesting a massive edge towards pitching in this game. If ownership projects later suggest that players may be losing confidence in Max, load up with confidence. It might be wise to still do so even if that’s not the case.
An Elite Point Per Dollar Arm
The Marlins are basically rolling out a glorified AAA lineup on a nightly basis, and their numbers rank near the bottom of the league offensively in almost every respect against RHP. After all, this is a team that’s rolling out a 2-5 lineup combination of Martin Prado, Brian Anderson, Neil Walker, and Starling Castro… in 2019. You could probably stream any pitcher against the Marlins in any fantasy format and get away with it right now. Enter Aaron Nola. He got off to nothing short of an abysmal start this year, as his command simply wasn’t there over his first few outings. The good news is that he struck out nine and walked just one in his last start — and that was in Coors Field against the Rockies. Tonight’s game presents a much better game environment, with Nola checking in as a large home favorite against a bad team. His strikeout stuff is still there with a 25% strikeout rate in the early going (though his swinging strike rate is down), and his ground ball and batted ball profiles are in line with his career averages. This is a great bounce back spot for Nola, and he is a priority play for me in all formats.
A Fun Battle Of Aces
When you look at the side by side numbers for Cole and tonight’s mound opponent, Trevor Bauer has the glitzier 2019 profile by far. However, Cole has the better underlying metrics with higher strikeouts, a lower walk rate, and a better SIERA/xFIP. Both have immense strikeout upside, and I will give my lean to Cole between the two. He’s pitching at home against the less dangerous of the two offenses, and I like his metrics a little more. That’s not to say that Bauer isn’t a fine choice, as Bauer is clearly growing into a potential Cy Young candidate this year. Cole is simply the better play in cash games.
Finding A Punt Play
This is also a slate where we are starved for some great value options, and we can get Logan Forsythe as a potential value on all DFS sites today. He had a great game yesterday and will likely hit second in the Texas lineup today against a lefty. He’s nothing special, but his career .340 wOBA and .170 ISO against LHP are better than what you will normally find in a punt value. If you want to fit elite pitching and Boston bats into your cash game lineups this evening, you will find that Forsythe helps out an awful lot in that endeavor. Just make sure he is in the lineup, though I do expect him to be against a lefty (and he is guaranteed to be if Andrus is still out).
Upside Value Bat
We need value if we want to fit in some of the elite pitchers tonight, and Devers provides just that with a $2,800 tag on FD and a $3,800 tag on DK. That’s too cheap. Devers hasn’t shown his usual pop so far this year, but he has a .365 on base percentage and a 12% walk rate to go along with a 15% strikeout rate. The batting eye is still there, and his batted ball profile isn’t alarming. In fact, his line drive percentage is 5% higher than last year. It’s only a matter of time before the home runs come, and I am banking on some damage tonight.
The Price Tag Is Too Cheap
His all around game gives him one of the best floors you will see from an MLB hitter. His wOBA sits at a mark well over .400 against RHP since the beginning of last year. He’s a no brainer play in this spot against a mediocre, declining RHP in Jordan Zimmermann, especially since he is somehow available at a $1,000+ discount from Mike Trout on both FD and DK right now. I know Trout is great, but that’s just too much of a discount when you consider the respective matchups tonight.
Lower Priced Upside
Aaron Nola is almost certain to be the more popular pitcher in this Marlins-Phillies game, and it makes sense given the matchups, but the early season numbers strongly favor Caleb Smith even before the salary discount. There are three pitchers on this slate with strikeout rates above 30% so far this season, Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer and Caleb Smith. He hasn’t struck out fewer than six batters in any of his four starts and has just six walks in 23 innings to go along with the 29 strikeouts. There is clear power risk here with his fly ball style and the big ballpark downgrade, but for points per dollar upside, this is as good as it gets.
Can't Fade It Completely
I debated on whether or not to bother putting a Red Sox batter on the list tonight, since it is so obviously the top spot and ownership is going to be an issue. One way to dance around that a little is to just try and pick out the right bat who is going to do the most damage, but to avoid the full stack. J.D. Martinez is the Boston bat with the most raw power, leading the team in ISO, wOBA, hard hit % and exit velocity against right-handed pitching. If most of the damage comes from the home run ball against the fly ball lean of Jordan Zimmermann, finding the home runs is the key here.
Both Sides Of The Unknown
With so much ownership going to the Red Sox bats tonight, any other expensive stack is bound to be contrarian. The Rangers are throwing rookie Taylor Hearn, who I do like as a GPP flier himself, but while he has strikeout upside, he is also untested and has had control issues in the minors. If the Mariners can get into this Texas bullpen early enough, it’s easy to see how this could become the top scoring team tonight. I’d start with righty power against the left-handed fly ball rookie. Mitch Haniger (38.5% HH), Domingo Santana (41.3% HH), Edwin Encarnacion (41.2% HH) all hit the ball hard against lefties.
Other tagged players: Mitch Haniger, Domingo Santana The Other Ace
We are loaded with pitching on this slate, and the ownership is likely to flow towards Gerrit Cole and Aaron Nola. In tournaments, you can keep your upside intact with Trevor Bauer on the other side of the Indians-Astros game. Houston is not an easy opponent, but most of their best hitters are right-handed, and Bauer has struck out 39% of righties this season and 33% since the start of 2018. He also has one of the longest leashes of any starter in the league, throwing at least 108 pitches in every start this season, adding to his upside.
Zack Cozart (neck) scratched Wednesday; Tommy La Stella replaces
Cozart has been scratched from the Los Angeles Angels original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the New York Yankees due to lingering neck soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Tommy La Stella, who will now play second base and slot directly into Cozart’s vacated ninth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Angels lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander CC Sabathia at home this evening.
As reported by: Fabian Ardaya via Twitter Other tagged players: Tommy La Stella
Outstanding Third Base Value
Cole Hamels has been great over his last three starts (21 IP – 3 ER – 0 BB – 19 K) against a wide range of opponents (MIA, LAA, MIL). On the season, the strikeout rate is average, but he has a 57.5 GB% and 3% walk rate that have helped him navigate a pretty frightening 91.9 mph aEV. While conditions (weather, umpire) do favor Hamels at Wrigley tonight, he faces a tough opponent in the Dodgers and Justin Turner in particular. Turner has smashed LHP for a 155 wRC+, .212 ISO and 51.3 Hard% over the last calendar year. He’s a pretty good bet to make some hard contact tonight, considering Hamels’ Statcast numbers. He also costs just $3.4K on DraftKings, a tremendous value, although that price might increase his ownership. Also interesting to note that David Freese (139 wRC+, .170 ISO), batting third, costs just $2.4K on FanDuel at the same position.
Other tagged players: David Freese, Cole Hamels An unexpected top projected offense
Some of you may have gone into shock when looking at the Vegas Odds page and seeing Baltimore above five implied runs. The O’s unloaded on Ivan Nova last night, but what kind of pitcher does it take to get them there? Let’s consider what Ervin Santana has done so far. He’s allowed 5 HRs in 8.2 IP with a 5.0 SwStr% and 13.6 BB% through two starts. He has a 32% ground ball rate and .503 xwOBA (20.6% Barrels/BBE). His body of work over the last calendar year is not very large (96 LHBs, 62 RHBs), but the numbers are still impressive. LHBs have a .382 wOBA (.401 xwOBA) and that’s his good side! RHBs have a .560 wOBA (.503 xwOBA). That’s a lot of hard contact in the air in a power friendly park tonight. Those kind of numbers give value to nearly any bat in an opposing lineup and Baltimore does have a few competent bats. Jonathan Villar (108 wRC+, .138 ISO) is one of four above average bats against RHP over the last calendar year. Renato Nunez (119 wRC+, .205 ISO), Trey Mancini (108 wRC+, .208 ISO), and Dwight Smith Jr. (132 wRC+, .246 ISO) have all shown above average power. One other thing to mention is Steve Wilkerson (44 wRC+, .091 ISO, 17.4 Hard%) has been terrible, but costs just $2.2K or less on either site out of the sixth slot. Lastly, for those still a bit gun shy about pulling the trigger on Baltimore bats, they are actually a favorite in tonight’s game AND the line has increased despite receiving a minority bet percentage so far. Reverse line movement is generally a strong sign.
Other tagged players: Dwight Smith Jr., Renato Nunez, Jonathan Villar, Ervin Santana Good chance they get back to hard hitting ways
Tyson Ross has not been very good despite the 3.38 ERA. He has just an 8.0 K-BB% and has thrived on the back of a .243 BABIP and 5.0 HR/FB, neither of which is very sustainable. Batters are making contact on 93% of swings on pitches in the strike zone and sooner or later, some of his 24.3 LD% (which makes the BABIP even more absurd) are going to turn into fly balls and home runs. While the Red Sox have been a disappointment thus far (79 wRC+ vs RHP), this too is mostly BABIP driven with an 11.8 K-BB% and 19.6 Hard-Soft% vs RHP. This is a firmly positive run environment with weather not expected to impact this game and an extremely hitter friendly umpire behind the plate (Alfonso Marquez). While Ross has shown a substantial platoon split over his career, a 43 Hard% and GB% against RHP over the last calendar year boosts his .273 wOBA against them to .327 by xwOBA. LHBs are hammering him for a wOBA and xwOBA both above .350 over that span. The Red Sox are the top projected offense (5.7 runs) for good reason despite offensive struggles. Load up on bats from either side of the plate with confidence here. Both Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez remain above a 160 wRC+ and .250 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year and both are above a 140 wRC+ over the last week as well. Andrew Benintendi (136 wRC+, .184 ISO), Mitch Moreland (106 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Xander Bogaerts (125 wRC+, .235 ISO) make the entire top half of this lineup great plays. Add in the fact that Ross is a pitcher the Sox could run on if they choose.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Xander Bogaerts, Tyson Ross