DFS Alerts
Trust The Metrics
The early season results for Noah Syndergaard don’t look that great on the surface. The good news, though, is that his 5.90 ERA is largely a result of bad luck. His underlying profile is perfectly fine with a 51% ground ball rate and 3.42 SIERA, and he generally does a great job of limiting hard contact. The command has still been very solid, and we are getting him at a bit of a discount in DFS circles right now. The only issue is a matchup against a potent Brewers offense that did some damage against Jacob deGrom and company last night, but I simply can’t pass on the discount with Syndergaard. Every pitcher on this slate has a question mark or two, and I’ll side with his track record and underlying metrics. The upside potential is also there, as the Brewers own the fourth highest team strikeout rate in baseball so far this year.
Affordable With Upside
If you are looking for a cheaper arm tonight, there’s not much to love out there. I’ve settled on Woodruff as my preferred option, and it’s not particularly close. He showed impressive strikeout stuff last year with a 27% strikeout rate in his major league appearances, and he has maintained that mark so far in 2019. His batted ball profile is nothing extraordinary but not alarming, and he still owns a SIERA and xFIP under 4.00. This is a fine road matchup with a middle of the pack Mets offense opposing him, and Woodruff has more upside and fewer question marks than a lot of the other value/mid-range arms tonight. He is in play as a GPP arm or as an SP #2 choice on the multi-pitcher sites.
DET-CHW postponed due to inclement weather Saturday
The game between the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox on Saturday night has been postponed due to forecasted inclement weather throughout the remainder of the day and into the evening hours. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Wednesday, July 3 at 1:10 pm EST as part of a day-night split doubleheader. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Saturday’s daily fantasy slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: Scott Merkin via Twitter
New Repertoire Has Led to Better Results
Tyler Mahle has a career 4.47 ERA / 1.45 HR/9 and has been someone to target in DFS over the past 2 years. This year though, he has swapped out his slider for a curveball, as well as ditching his changeup for a splitter, and the early returns are very promising. Mahle has a 3.52 ERA / 3.03 xFIP with an impressive 21.5 K-BB% and a 50.8% GB rate. Mahle is not a safe play with a matchup this afternoon vs. the Cardinals who are 2nd in the league with a 121 wRC+ vs. RHP on the year. However, Mahle’s cheap price and impressive recent peripherals make him an interesting dart-throw that is sure to come with very low ownership. Mahle does have the platoon advantage versus 6 of 9 Cardinal hitters, important given his career wOBA allowed of .419 vs. LHB compared to just .284 allowed vs. RHB. Mahle will also have the benefit of a pitcher-friendly umpire in Ted Barrett. The Cardinals have a 4.74 implied line vs. Mahle and the Reds Saturday afternoon.
Start of MIL-NYM will be delayed due to rain Friday
The start of the matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets on Friday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Mets have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Jacob deGrom not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, this front is likely to lead to a long initial delay and could force the teams into a postponement later in the evening.
As reported by: Mike Puma via Twitter TBR-BOS postponed due to rain Friday
The game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox on Friday night has been postponed due to forecasted rain throughout the remainder of the evening. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Saturday, June 8 at 6:10 pm EST as part of a day-night split doubleheader. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Friday’s daily fantasy slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: Alex Speier via Twitter Switching It Up
I’ve decided to remove the Core tag from Bryce Harper with the weather still looking so rough in Philly tonight. I’ll move another OF spot to Minnesota where we have Max Kepler leading off against Alex Cobb and the bad Orioles bullpen. Kepler’s combination of low strikeouts and high walks give him on base upside against the low strikeouts of Cobb, while his fly ball lean offsets the ground balls from Cobb.
Astros Hitters Priced Down Despite Decent Total
The Astros are at home facing Corey Kluber Friday night. Kluber has not looked quite like himself in 2019 with a 5.88 ERA / 4.89 xFIP / .330 xwOBA allowed and 4.15 BB/9 to start the year. His 38% hard contact rate would be the highest of his career, as would his 41.8 FB%. I don’t think it’s time to panic on Kluber, especially given his slow starts in previous years, but Astros hitters feel way underpriced in this matchup. Alex Bregman (.380 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Michael Brantley (.380), George Springer (.348), Jose Altuve (.345), and Carlos Correa (.302) all hit RHP well and are just $4.2k or less on Fanduel tonight. Correa stands out as the best value at just $3.6k in the midst of a bounce-back campaign with a .364 xwOBA, in line with his career average of .362. George Springer (.504 xwOBA over the past 10 days), Josh Reddick (.474) and Michael Brantley (.452) have all swung the bat exceptionally well of late.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, George Springer Nice Pts/$ SP for Friday Night
If you’re looking to save at SP on Friday, Martin Perez is an option at just $6.8k on Draftkings and $7k on Fanduel. Though his ERA, xFIP and other peripherals in 2019 look very similar to his mediocre career numbers, Perez has a new pitch arsenal this year and is enjoying a career high in K/9 at 8.41. Perez has added 2 MPH onto his fastball in 2019 and added a cutter to his repertoire which has already totaled a pitch value of 4.6 per Fangraphs. It’s encouraging that Perez has increased his cutter usage over the last 2 starts as the new pitch has a .123 wOBA against and a 15.5 SwStr%. Perez faces a weak hitting Orioles team tonight that has just an 84 wRC+ vs. LHP and a 24.9% K rate. The Orioles lineup doesn’t have a single batter tonight who has an xwOBA vs. LHP above .315 since 2018. Also working in Perez’s favor will be pitcher friendly umpire Chris Conroy. The Orioles have just a 3.73 implied line vs. Perez and the Twins tonight.
Value Here Vs. SP Making 2019 Debut
Danny Duffy is making his debut tonight vs. the Angels after missing the start of 2019 with a shoulder injury. Duffy appeared in 155 innings in 2018, giving up a 4.88 ERA / 4.92 xFIP / 4.75 SIERA. Duffy was bad vs. RHP in 2018 with a .344 wOBA allowed, but much better vs. LHB with a .284 wOBA allowed. Fortunately, the Angels project to use 7 RHB vs. Duffy tonight, who is not likely to have his best stuff tonight as he shakes off the rust. Mike Trout (.412 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), Kevan Smith (.400), Brian Goodwin (.343, just 44 PA), Kole Calhoun (.343), Albert Pujols (.321) and Andrelton Simmons (.315) project to be in the Angels’ lineup and are all in play. With the exception of Mike Trout, all the aforementioned players are available for $4.2k or less on Draftkings. Kevan Smith is an intriguing play at just $3.4k given his success vs. LHP, he also owns a .435 xwOBA over the past 10 days. The Angels have a 4.64 implied total vs. Duffy and the Royals tonight.
Other tagged players: Albert Pujols, Andrelton Simmons, Kevan Smith, Kole Calhoun, Brian Goodwin, Danny Duffy Rays Bats Looking Good Friday
The Red Sox will call up 31 year old Josh Smith to start tonight’s game vs. the Rays in Fenway. Smith is a career 5.30 ERA / 5.09 xFIP / 4.74 SIERA pitcher in 128 big-league innings and hasn’t pitched in the MLB since 2017. He’s been particularly bad vs. LHB with a .401 wOBA allowed vs. them and just a .310 wOBA allowed vs. RHB. Ji-man Choi (.374 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Tommy Pham (.371), Brandon Lowe (.358), Yandy Diaz (.357) and Avisail Garcia (.328) make up the top 5 hitters in the Rays’ order and are all solid options vs. Smith. Mike Zunino is batting 7th and has been by far the hottest Rays’ hitter of late with a .680 xwOBA over the last 10 days. Ji-Man Choi (.585) and Tommy Pham (.465) have also seen the ball well over the last 10 days. The Rays have a 4.57 implied total tonight vs. Smith and the Red Sox. Keep in mind this game will likely see at least some rain and could possibly be delayed/PPD.
Other tagged players: Tommy Pham, Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz, Avisail Garcia, Mike Zunino Increase in CB Usage Gives this SP More Upside
While Marcus Stroman’s 1.76 ERA is sure to regress, he has made some notable changes to his pitch selection so far in 2019. Stroman is throwing his fastball much less (38.5% in 2019 vs. career average 55.8%), his slider less (3.4% in 2019 vs. 15.5% for career) while showing a huge increase in curveball usage (34.2% in 2019 vs. career average 11.8%). His curveball is currently tied for second best in the league in CB pitch value at 4.4 and has helped him increase his K% to what would be a career best 22.8%. Stroman’s xwOBA also sits at a career best .296, his previous best is .316. Stroman is at home vs. the A’s tonight, who are slightly below average with a 97 wRC+ vs. RHP but just a 19.1 K%. Though not the best matchup on the board, Stroman’s price is still catching up from a down 2018 as he’s just $8k or less on both major sites. Stroman also holds the platoon advantage against 7 of 9 hitters in the A’s order, which is should be beneficial given his splits (.304 xwOBA vs. RHB, ,331 vs. LHB) since 2018. The Athletics project for 4.24 runs vs. Stroman and the Jays Friday night.
Possibly-Contrarian Stack Tonight
Matt Strahm somehow has just a 3.09 ERA this year despite not missing many bats (15.3 K%) and allowing hard contact at a high rate (53% Hard, 12.1% Soft) with just a 34.8% GB rate. His 5.37 xFIP and 5.12 SIERA prove that his run prevention thus far isn’t sustainable. Strahm faces the Nats tonight in D.C. who are ranked 5th in the MLB with a 132 wRC+ vs. LHP this year, yet somehow are projected for just 4.03 runs. This hopefully means we can throw in some Nats’ stacks with lower ownership than they might deserve. The Nationals have plenty of good options in their lineup tonight: Anthony Rendon (.429 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), Ryan Zimmerman (.409), Victor Robles (.348) and Juan Soto (.343) make up 4 of the Nats’ top 5 in the order tonight. Adam Eaton (.273) leads off but has struggled with LHP since 2018. Yan Gomes (.372) has mashed LHP and is very affordable across the industry batting 6th. Highly-regarded prospect Carter Kieboom will be making his MLB debut tonight for the Nats after starting the year in AAA with a 186 wRC+. Kieboom will be in the 9 spot of the order but is just $3.3k on Draftkings and could prove to be a nice value in his debut.
Other tagged players: Victor Robles, Ryan Zimmerman, Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, Matt Strahm A 30 K-BB% and a great spot tonight
James Paxton has struck out 24 of his last 50 batters over two starts, while not allowing a run. His 44.3 Z-O% is an outlier, but who cares with a 79.9 Z-Contact%. Likewise, an 89.5 mph aEV is not a concern with so many strikeouts. He now has a 30 K-BB% on the season. Paxton gets a massive park bump in a great matchup in San Francisco. The Giants have a 51 wRC+ and 6.5 HR/FB at home and a 67 wRC+, 19.8 K-BB% vs LHP. The only downside here is that Paxton should and likely will be the most popular pitcher tonight. He’s just the third most expensive pitcher at $9.6K on DraftKings.
Great peripherals and a favorable matchup
Hyun-Jin Ryu struck out nine Brewers in his return from a short IL stint. A 29.1 K% will work even in shortened stints, especially with just a 2.5 BB% with everything else being average and a strong defense behind him (10.7 UZR/150, .267 team BABIP allowed). The Pirates have a reputation of being a contact prone offense, but that hasn’t necessarily been so this year. In a small sample, they’ve struck out in 30% of plate appearances against LHP, but are also above 22% strikeouts on the road and over the last seven days overall. The Pirates are also below an 80 wRC+ on the road, vs LHP and over the last week as well. Despite the barrage of home runs the Dodgers hit there, this is still a substantially negative run environment and Ryu appears to have some value tonight, especially at his $8.2 cost on DraftKings.