DFS Alerts
TOR-MIN will be delayed due to rain, "a chance" first pitch will be at 8:15 pm ET on Wednesday
The start of the matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins on Wednesday evening will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, but the Twins are hoping for first pitch at 8:15 pm ET and have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Jake Odorizzi not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, there’s a high likelihood the game plays through following the initial delay.
As reported by: LaVelle E. Neal III via Twitter
Quality bats could go under-owned
Analysis coming soon.While Jeff Samardzija looked strong in his last outing, that was at home against the Marlins. While he does now have a 10.8 SwStr% on the season and the Nationals have struck out 24.6% of PAs against RHP this year, Samardzija maintains a 91.3 mph aEV thus far in 2019 and will not have the big ballpark in San Francisco to bail him out tonight. This is a deep lineup he’ll have to contend with in Washington, which features four hitters above a 120 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year among the first five batters in the order. Matt Adams (109 wRC+) adds a .252 ISO against them. In addition, four of those five batters are also at or above a 190 wRC+ over the last seven days overall with Juan Soto (55 wRC+) being the exception. Washington bats are not exceptionally cheap and are only implied for 4.5 runs, which puts them in the middle of the board, but without much high priced pitching, players should be able to find room for their quality bats. Batters from either side of the plate are below a 40% ground ball rate and above a 35% hard hit rate against Samardzija over the last 12 months, while LHBs own a .353 wOBA.
Other tagged players: Juan Soto, Jeff Samardzija
Batters aren't making good contact, but they're just not swinging enough
Just three starts into the season, but Jake Odorizzi has some fascinating numbers. After a great first start, he’s since allowed seven ERs on seven walks with just four strikeouts in 5.1 innings. However, he does have at least a 14.1 SwStr% in every start and an amazing 61.5 Z-Contact%. As one familiar with Odorizzi would guess, the large majority of those swings and misses are coming on four-seam fastballs up in the zone. And when batters do make contact, they have just an 84.6 mph aEV. He’s only allowed a single HR so far and that was in his good start. The other odd thing is that his 58.7 F-Strike% and 44.7 Zone% are both higher than his career rates. Batters just aren’t swinging at anything outside the strike zone (53 Z-O-Swing%). He’s in an interesting spot tonight where he might get some more swings. The Blue Jays have a 28.7 K% vs RHP, though they also have a 9.7 BB%. Comparative to the rest of the board, he still might be worth a shot, weather permitting (and there are currently some serious concerns) because there doesn’t appear to be a lot of good contact being made. Odorizzi just has to figure out a way to make batters swing more often.
Mitch Haniger (illness) scratched Wednesday; Mallex Smith replaces
Haniger has been scratched from the Seattle Mariners original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Cleveland Indians due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Mallex Smith, who will now play center field and slot directly into Haniger’s vacated leadoff spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Mariners lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Carlos Carrasco at home this evening.
As reported by: Greg Johns via Twitter Other tagged players: Mallex Smith Circumstances make him incredibly difficult to fade
Players on tonight’s slate, especially on DraftKings where there are three fewer games and the need for two pitchers, are probably looking for reasons not to use Cole Hamels. He’s the only pitcher that even sees a $9K price tag (Carlos Carrasco is above $9K on FanDuel with the 6:30 ET start), he has an enormously favorable matchup against a terrible offense (68 wRC+, 25.9 K%) in a great park (Miami). He’s also going to be pitching in front of the most pitcher friendly umpire on the slate (Mark Ripperger). No wonder he’s expected to be the most popular pitcher on the slate, even if he’s never been the most consistent.
After a rough start in Texas, Hamels has two straight quality starts (@MIL, vs LAA), uncharacteristically having not walked a batter in either start. Despite just a 19.5 K% this season, it’s going to be hard to find a pitcher likely to match his strikeout upside in their particular matchup tonight. Perhaps Jake Odorizzi against Toronto, but there are some serious weather concerns in that game. If you’re looking for a negative, it’s in the Statcast numbers for Hamels. A 94.2 mph aEV, 55.6% 95+ mph EV and 16.7% Barrels/BBE portray plenty of hard contact, resulting in a .370 xwOBA, though 50% of that contact has been on the ground. So, can you fade him? Probably not in cash games and GPP players will want at least some exposure. It’s hard not to see him as the top overall arm on the board tonight under current circumstances and anyone nearly comparable generates significant risk.
Low Owned Value Play
FanDuel decided to add the three earlier games on the main slate, which gives us a few more potential value plays. I really like Steve Pearce and Mike Ford tonight for some salary savings. Mike Ford should make his Major League debut tonight, and Eovaldi is off to a really weak start to the season. Ford showed really good power in 2017 but struggled with his power numbers in 2018. I like Minor League numbers, but he’s minimum salary on FanDuel, which is the reason I’m looking at him.
All The Home Runs
On FanDuel tonight, where we don’t have to pay up for pitching, the $4,300 salary of Joey Gallo is not tough to fit. It’s not ideal to have such a high strikeout batter, but the upside is so clear that it outweighs the risk. Matt Harvey has allowed a .242 ISO to lefties since the start of last season on 42% hard hits and a 41% fly ball rate. The 51% hard hits and .293 ISO of Joey Gallo show the clear upside.
Elite Contact At A Discount
Oakland’s Frankie Montas has shown significant splits to this point in his career, with a .410 wOBA allowed to lefties on 45% hard hits with just 14.7% strikeouts. Michael Brantley is way too cheap on DK/FDRFT and playable on all sites with his elite 91% contact rate and 41% hard hits. A strong cash game option and a key part of any Astros stacks.
Seeing the Ball Well Right Now
Steven Duggar has been hitting leadoff for the Giants and is one of my favorite value plays on this slate. He has at least one hit in four of the last five games, and multiple hits in three of the last four games. I really like to play the Giants when they’re on the road, and they’re always super cheap because of their numbers at home. Hellickson looked a lot better last season, but historically he’s been worse against lefties. Duggar and Crawford make a lot of sense on this slate.
Lines Up In Any Ballpark
If this game were being played in Baltimore, the Rays would rival Texas as the can’t miss spot of the night. The Rays face the low strikeouts and high fly balls of David Hess that have resulted in a .256 ISO allowed to lefties so far in his career. Ji-Man Choi has a 43% hard hit rate and a high 26% line drive rate that will play well against the fly balls of Hess. He is also at a discount price on most sites tonight.
Don't Overthink It
The Texas Rangers, loaded with strong left-handed batters are an obvious play at home against Matt Harvey tonight. When they faced him in Anaheim two weeks ago, the result was 10 hits, two homers and eight runs in four innings. Shin-Soo Choo leads things off with a .396 wOBA against righties since the start of 2018 and a huge 58% hard hit rate in the early going this season.
I Miss Stacking Against Him
It’s taken me a while, but I’ve accepted the fact we can’t stack against Wade Miley anymore. Since the start of 2018, he has a .281 wOBA against righties and a .295 wOBA against lefties. He’s still giving up a lot of hard contact, but his WellHit% is way down and his hit distance is one of the best in baseball in that span. He doesn’t strikeout a lot of hitters, but I’m just looking for someone to get me 13-16 DK and 30-40 FDP points in this range tonight. Miley added a cutter last season, he’s throwing it 42% of the time, and has a .255 wOBA with a 55.21% groundball rate with it. I don’t love any cheaper pitchers tonight, but I will be playing Miley on some of my teams.
Gotta Play Somebody
There is not much out there in the way of pitching options tonight. When in doubt, we may as well play a pitcher going into Miami to face this low power Marlins team. Both the ballpark and the lineup add a bit of security to Hamels tonight. While his strikeouts are not high this season, the control has been outstanding, walking just three batters in 19 innings. This Marlins team is not the kind of lineup that can string together a bunch of hits on most nights, so this is where I’ll start my builds.
Attack This High Total
On the home side of the LAA/TEX game, the Rangers are in just as good of a spot as the visiting Angels. They get a matchup against Matt Harvey, who has had issues with allowing hard contact to left-handed hitters for years now. When Harvey is on his game, he’s still solid. However, when he’s bad, it tends to get REALLY bad. That is what we like to see with an opposing stack. Joey Gallo is capable of hitting a bomb or two here, and I will prioritize any of the power lefties in a GPP stack. I love the potential here, and Danny Santana can be used as a value play if he grabs a reasonable spot in the batting order.
Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Shin-soo Choo, Danny Santana
Upside Stack
We have a lot of potential for runs in Arlington tonight, and I’ll definitely go back to the well with some stacks in this game even though last night’s game was a relative disappointment. The Angels draw a fine matchup against Lance Lynn, who will likely struggle all year in a park that is very hitter friendly. His career splits are very wide, with left-handed batters doing a lot more damage in general. That puts the likes of Calhoun, Bour, and Goodwin near the top of the value list this evening, while the likes of Trout and Simmons can certainly be used in a GPP stack setting.
Other tagged players: Justin Bour, Brian Goodwin, Mike Trout