DFS Alerts
GPP Upside Potential
In terms of raw upside, Gausman likely has the most potential of the arms on tonight’s slate. He sports a 26% strikeout rate in the early going, and he has held opposing hitters to a .146 batting average to this point. It all comes down to his command. If he is able to throw strikes and be aggressive, he certainly has the potential for a big game against an Arizona offense that is middle of the road at best. I’ll have plenty of Gausman exposure in my GPP builds this evening.
The Top Pitcher By Default?
Well, this Wednesday slate offers up a whole lot of nothing for pitching options. As such, we have to consider Cole Hamels as a top pitching option almost by default. The Marlins rank in the bottom five in baseball in virtually every offensive category, and they have allowed good starts to both Yu Darvish and Jose Quintana over the last two nights. Hamels isn’t the same pitcher he once was, but he still has upside in the right matchups, and this one certainly qualifies.
Chris Davis (illness) scratched Tuesday; Joey Rickard replaces
Davis has been scratched from the Baltimore Orioles original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Joey Rickard, who will now play right field and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which slides Hanser Alberto down one batting position to seventh, respectively. However, the remainder of the Orioles lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Tyler Glasnow on the road this evening.
As reported by: Joe Trezz via Twitter Other tagged players: Joey Rickard
Martin Maldonado scratched Tuesday; Cam Gallagher replaces
Maldonado has been scratched from the Kansas City Royals original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Chicago White Sox due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Cam Gallagher, who will now handle the catching duties and slot directly into Maldonado’s vacated eighth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Royals lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Reynaldo Lopez on the road this evening.
As reported by: Joel Goldberg via Twitter Other tagged players: Cam Gallagher Strong Offense Feasts On Right-Handed Pitchers
Jack Flaherty is an excellent young pitcher with a 2.93 ERA (3.57 SIERA) this season, but tonight he faces a dangerous Brewers offense, particularly against right-handed pitchers. Milwaukee ranks 3rd in OPS against right-handed pitching this season, and with left-handed hitters like Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, and Travis Shaw hitting in the middle of the lineup they could put up a big number against Flaherty tonight in their home ballpark.
Other tagged players: Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain
High-Strikeout Pitcher Faces Weak Offense
Stephen Strasburg’s 5.40 ERA over his first three starts doesn’t look good compared to his career 3.17 ERA mark, but his 10.8 K/9 is the same as last year, and his 3.56 FIP is actually a bit better than his 3.62 2018 FIP. Tonight he takes on a Giants team that ranks dead last in the league in OPS against right-handed pitching. Strasburg and the Nationals are strong -180 favorites, making Strasburg a high-strikeout option likely to get the win and put up a quality start.
Cheap Exposure To This Team
David Fletcher is hitting leadoff for the Angels tonight, and while he doesn’t have great numbers, he’s a really nice value at the top of this lineup. He has a low strikeout rate and a low walk rate, which usually means he’s going to put the ball in play. Minor has a .200 ISO with a 45.4% fly ball rate and a 37.5% hard-hit rate against righties since the start of 2018. The Angels have one of the highest implied run totals today, so getting cheap exposure to this lineup is something I want to do tonight.
Breakout Game Incoming
I really like this KC/CWS game tonight, and while we have some really popular spots, it could fly a little under the radar. Yonder Alonso is one of my favorite plays on this slate. He has a .094 ISO with a .265 wOBA against righties this season, and while that should scare me, it doesn’t. He has a .136 BABIP and his xwOBA, xISO, and hard contact rate suggest some positive regression is coming for him. In 168 PAs against left-handed hitters since the start of 2018, Lopez has a .330 wOBA with a .205 ISO, and a very low 16.1% strikeout rate.
Where Did He Come From
Nick Margevicius jumped from High-A ball straight to the Majors and has looked really good in his first three starts. He has a 3.89 xFIP with a 20.3% strikeout rate and a very impressive 1.7% walk rate. His 12:1 KK:B rate is really good for someone that has not pitched above High-A. Arenado and Story are the two big bats to worry about, but this Rockies offense has really struggled on the road this season. They have the third lowest wOBA against lefties, and the second lowest wRC+. It didn’t work out yesterday with Lucchesi, but I’m going back to the well.
Great Spot To Target
After dominating in his last start, Quintana draws an excellent matchup against the Miami Marlins tonight. Since the start of the 2018 season, this projected starting lineup has a .113 ISO with a .287 wOBA against left-handed pitching. They don’t strikeout a lot, which is the only concerning thing when looking at Quintana tonight. He should have no issue pitching deep into this game, and if BABIP is on his side, he should be one of the safer options in this price range.
The Stars At Night Are Big And Bright
This Angels-Rangers game is again the obvious top spot for offense on this slate and Texas is a must play in cash games and a dangerous fade in tournaments. While Jaime Barria has looked reverse splitsy so far, he is allowing just as much hard contact to lefties and is a fly ball pitcher to both sides of the plate. Shin-Soo Choo leads off with strong plate skills, and comes into the night with a crazy high 60% hard hit rate on the young season.
The Salary Is Just Too Low
The slow start to the season for Jose Ramirez has left his salary just far too low for his skill set. While his batting average, he continues to hit the ball hard and in the air while not striking out. He got the monkey off his back last night with his first home run along with his 5th stolen base of the season. His already elite contact skills now get to face the dangerously low 12.8% strikeouts of Mike Leake. With Ramirez sporting an 85% contact rate against righties since the start of last season to go along with 46% fly balls and a .287 ISO, the ball is going to get hit tonight.
The Best Of The Best
The best hitter in the league is in the best hitting environment on the slate facing a strike throwing lefty who allows hard hits and fly balls. There is just no need to overthink the .285 ISO and .449 wOBA of Mike Trout against the .200 ISO allowed by Mike Minor to right-handed batters.
Two Aces On Top
Pitching is loaded tonight, with at least a dozen quality options in different price ranges. It all starts up top where we have Stephen Strasburg and Tyler Glasnow both in favorable matchups. As much as the long term numbers from Strasburg make him look more obvious, I am starting down in Tampa, where Tyler Glasnow has harnessed his control even more to open the season, building on his strong second half of 2018. He has walked just three batters to go along with 21 strikeouts in his first 17 innings, and now gets to face the high strikeout Orioles in his pitcher friendly home ballpark.
Ground ball rate cut in half
The Angels and Rangers are the only teams on the board implied for at least five runs. Texas is a great hitter’s park, but Trevor Cahill is a fairly competent pitcher when he’s healthy and his early season numbers somewhat reflect that through a few starts this season (3.50 ERA, 22.9 K%, .293 xwOBA). There is an interesting aspect to his batted ball profile that players may want to consider if planning to use him tonight. His 29.4 GB% is nearly half his career rate. It appears he’s throwing a few more four-seamers and curves and perhaps he alters his approach in this park, where fly balls are generally not the way you want to go, but a peek inside of the Premium Subscription also reveals a very hitter friendly umpire in this situation (Greg Gibson). Even should Cahill change his approach to generate more ground balls, this could be a tough spot for him. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a 35% hard hit rate against him over the last calendar year. As always, Shin-Soo Choo (146 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is in a strong spot at the top of the lineup at home, while Joey Gallo (116 wRC+, .286 ISO) generally comes with tremendous upside in spots like this.
Other tagged players: Trevor Cahill, Shin-soo Choo