DFS Alerts
Still Priced Down On Small Sample
Outside of Texas, the Cardinals-Brewers game is the high total spot of the night with two good offenses facing two pitchers with control issues. The Brewers face a high ground ball pitcher who lacks strikeout upside in Dakota Hudson. Travis Shaw is still priced down due to his .191 batting average, but a huge 46.7% hard hit rate says that he’‘ll be fine. He has strong numbers against ground ball pitchers with a 47% fly ball rate to offset Hudson’s strength.
Strikeouts Lead The Way
Trevor Bauer has a tough test against the hot start of Seattle, but strikeouts are king in DFS, and nobody has more of them than Bauer. After a 30.8% K rate on 13.3% swinging strikes in 2018, he’s opened at 30.4% strikeouts and 14.1% swinging strikes this season. Excluding his couple short September outings when he was rehabbing an injury last season, Bauer has at least 7 strikeouts in 16 of his last 17 starts, including all three this season. He’s priced up a little too high to call him a core play on FD, but he is the highest upside choice on all sites.
Too Cheap Here
The Rangers’ Shelby Miller hasn’t been a decent major league pitcher since 2015. Even back when he was healthy and good, he was a little below average to lefties, with a career 17.5% K rate and 4.75 xFIP. Since the start of 2018, Kole Calhoun has a .192 ISO with 45% hard hits. With this ballpark boost, and hitting ahead of Mike Trout, Calhoun is a strong play in all formats.
Other tagged players: Kole Calhoun Start of NYM-ATL will be delayed due to rain Sunday
The start of the matchup between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves on Sunday evening will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Braves have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Jacob deGrom not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the teams should be able to play through as long as field conditions don’t deteriorate during these initial storms.
As reported by: the Atlanta Braves via Twitter
Dwight Smith Jr. (leg) scratched Sunday; Cedric Mullins replaces
Smith Jr. has been scratched from the Baltimore Orioles original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Boston Red Sox due to right leg soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup Cedric Mullins, who will now play center field and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps Hanser Alberto and Jesus Sucre up to fifth and sixth, respectively, while Richard Martin slides up one batting position to eighth. However, the remainder of the Orioles lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander David Price on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Roch Kubatko via Twitter Other tagged players: Cedric Mullins Late Slate Stacks
The Dodgers are once again in play today vs. Jhoulys Chacin in Dodger stadium. Chacin has a .335 xwOBA allowed in away games since 2015 compared to a .307 xwOBA in home games. He’s also much worse vs. LHB (.354 xwOBA vs. LHB, .291 xwOBA vs. RHB) over that same span. Thus, there are plenty of Dodger bats in play. Cody Bellinger stayed hot with another HR last night an is up to a .566 xwOBA on the year. Corey Seager, Joc Pederson and Max Muncy should all be in the Dodgers’ lineup this afternoon and are always good bets for production vs. RHP. A.J. Pollock has started somewhat slow, but can be had at a discount at just $3.8k on DK.
Another stack option for the late slate are the D-Backs at home vs. Eric Lauer. Lauer hasn’t shown much to suggest he’s a good MLB pitcher. He has pretty even platoon splits and has given up a .332 xwOBA and a 1.26 HR/9 over 129 innings in his career. The D-Backs have plenty of good options at reasonable prices in their projected lineup. Eduardo Escobar leads the team with a .397 xwOBA over the last 7 days. Wilmer Flores (.231) has been struggling but is discounted and has been solid in his career vs. LHP with a 107 wRC+. Adam Jones has seen a resurgence this year with a 157 wRC+ and projects to lead off.
Other tagged players: Corey Seager, A.J. Pollock, Max Muncy, Adam Jones, Eduardo Escobar, Wilmer Flores, Eric Lauer, Jhoulys Chacin
Affordable, High Upside Stack
The A’s face Adrian Sampson in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park and have an implied total of 5.59. Sampson hasn’t shown anything impressive as a pitcher in the majors and is projected for a 5.22 ERA this year per ZiPS. Khris Davis (.400 xwOBA in 2018 vs. RHP), Stephen Piscotty (.354), Kendrys Morales (.400), Matt Chapman (.352), Robbie Grossman (.305) and Jurickson Profar (.325) are all solid options in the A’s projected lineup. Khris Davis is the only bat over $5k on Draftkings but might be well worth it given his xwOBA of .465 the past 7 days. Jurickson Profar has one of the highest xwOBA in the league over the past 7 days with a .508 mark. Kendrys Morales might be the best value at just $3.9k and the highest xwOBA of all current A’s vs. RHP in 2018. All the A’s bats seem reasonably priced given the matchup and environment Sunday afternoon.
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Jurickson Profar, Adrian Sampson, Stephen Piscotty, Kendrys Morales, Robbie Grossman Price Has Yet to Adjust for this SP
Derek Holland made changes to his release point and pitch selection in the midst of 2018 and saw better results across the board with a 2.87 ERA, 3.39 FIP and 25% K rate in his last 19 starts of the year. In particular, he saw much better results vs. RHB (.298 xwOBA in 2nd half) despite struggling in that area before (.406 xwOBA vs. RHB in 2017). Holland has had a great start to 2019 with an 11.81 K/9 and 3.85 SIERA, and remains at a nice price of $6.9k on both major sites. Today he gets a start at home in pitcher-friendly AT&T park vs. the Rockies, who have an implied line of just 3.31. The Rockies projected lineup does have 4 batters who had an xwOBA above .335 vs. LHP last year(Arenado, Story, Blackmon, Iannetta) but their lineup is largely lacking pop aside from those aforementioned guys.
Jackie Bradley Jr. scratched Sunday; Andrew Benintendi replaces
Bradley Jr. has been scratched from the Boston Red Sox original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Baltimore Orioles due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Andrew Benintendi, who will now play center field and slot into the leadoff spot in the order, which bumps Dustin Pedroia all the way down to the sixth-hole and Eduardo Nunez, Rafael Devers, and Christian Vazquez each slide down one batting position to seventh, eighth, and ninth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Red Sox lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander John Means at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Ian Browne via Twitter Josh Harrison (shoulder) scratched Sunday; Ronny Rodriguez replaces
Harrison has been scratched from the Detroit Tigers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Minnesota Twins due to a sore left shoulder. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Ronny Rodriguez, who will now play second base and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which bumps Jeimer Candelario, Miguel Cabrera, Christin Stewart, John Hicks, and Grayson Greiner all up one batting position to first, second, third, fourth, and fifth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Tigers lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Jose Berrios on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Jason Beck via Twitter Berrios a Great Option Sunday
Though it’s early, Jose Berrios has looked even better in 2019 with a 22.4% BB-K, a 33.3% soft contact versus just a 29.4% hard contact rate and a 3.48 SIERA. Today Berrios gets to face a weak Tigers offense at home, Detroit ranked in 27th xwOBA vs. RHP in 2018 with a .300 mark which was worst in the AL. Without Nick Castellanos, this Detroit offense has just 1 batter (min. 75 PA) who had an xwOBA above .310 vs. RHP last year. Berrios has been much better at home in his career (.285 xwOBA at home, .330 away) and couldn’t ask for a much better matchup. One factor working against Berrios will be umpire Bill Welke, who is extremely hitter friendly. The Tigers currently have an implied line of 3.06 vs. Berrios and the Twins. Berrios feels underpriced on both major sites sitting at $10k.
Pivot off The Chalk Stack
I think the Phillies are a great pivot off the Red Sox today. I believe everyone will want to spend up for those Boston bats, so if that happens Philly might come in overlooked. The Phillies are in Miami in a pitcher’s park against Jose Urena, who struggles to strike batters out. In his first three starts, he is giving up 55% hard contact rate, and this Philly team has a lot of really talented bats. I think 1-8 is in play, but the four bats I like the most are McCutchen, Harper, Hoskins, and Segura in GPPs.
Pivot off The Chalk Stack
I think the Philly’s are a great pivot off the Red Sox today. I believe everyone will want to spend up for those Boston bats, so if that happens Philly might come in overlooked. Philly is in Miami in a pitcher’s park against Jose Urena, who struggles to strike batters out. In his first three starts, he is giving up 55% hard contact rate, and this Philly team has a lot of really talented bats. I think 1-8 is in play, but the four bats I like the most are McCutchen, Harper, Hoskins, and Segura in GPPs.
Pivot off The Chalk Stack
I think the Philly’s are a great pivot off the Red Sox today. I believe everyone will want to spend up for those Boston bats, so if that happens Philly might come in overlooked. Philly is in Miami in a pitcher’s park against Jose Urena, who struggles to strike batters out. In his first three starts, he is giving up 55% hard contact rate, and this Philly team has a lot of really talented bats. I think 1-8 is in play, but the four bats I like the most are McCutchen, Harper, Hoskins, and Segura in GPPs.
Pivot off The Chalk Stack
I think the Philly’s are a great pivot off the Red Sox today. I believe everyone will want to spend up for those Boston bats, so if that happens Philly might come in overlooked. Philly is in Miami in a pitcher’s park against Jose Urena, who struggles to strike batters out. In his first three starts, he is giving up 55% hard contact rate, and this Philly team has a lot of really talented bats. I think 1-8 is in play, but the four bats I like the most are McCutchen, Harper, Hoskins, and Segura in GPPs.