DFS Alerts
Intriguing Contrarian Arm
Wade Miley is never an exciting play, but he’s been (unsurprisingly) decent after signing with the Astros, yielding just a 2.31 ERA with a 3.84 xFIP and miniscule 1.54 BB/9. Although his K% is just 16.3 (below his career average of 18.4) Miley’s SwStr% of 12.6 (above career average of 8.6) leads us to believe that a higher K% might be coming. Miley should be super contrarian tonight versus a red-hot Mariners’ offense that is 5th in the league with a .352 xwOBA. However, the Mariners’ lineup isn’t all that scary given that they have just 2 guys who had an xwOBA above .315 vs. LHP last year (Encarnacion, Haniger). Miley is very affordable across the industry and doesn’t need to do anything crazy to hit value. The Mariners have a 4.16 implied total vs. Miley and the Astros tonight.
Cheap, Upside Arm
Luke Weaver is an intriguing arm Friday night at home vs. the Padres at an affordable price across the industry. Weaver showed plenty of promise in 60 IP in 2017 before struggling over a larger 136 IP sample last year. Weaver hasn’t been great with a 4.80 xFIP in 9.1 IP to start 2019, but his numbers could be worse given tough matchups vs. the Dodgers and Red Sox. Tonight, he’ll have the platoon advantage against all but 1 batter in the Padres’ lineup which is important given his splits (since 2017, .337 xwOBA, 20.7 K% vs. LHB versus a .309 xwOBA and 25 K% vs. RHB). The Padres have just 2 batters (Manny Machado, Wil Myers) in their lineup who had an xwOBA > .320 vs. RHP last year. Weaver had just a 7.99 K/9 in 2018 and is sitting at a 6.7 K/9 right now, but projects to have some K upside going forward as he did have a 10.74 mark in 2017 and Steamer projects him at 8.83 for 2019. The Padres have a 4.38 implied run total vs. Weaver and the D-Backs Friday night.
A’s in a Nice Spot in Arlington
The Athletics matchup with Drew Smyly tonight at Globe Life Park and have an implied run total of 5.41. Smyly has been unable to shake off the rust in his first 2 starts this year, not making it to 4 IP in either start, struggling to find the zone (7.11 BB/9) and getting crushed when he does find the zone (56.5% hard contact rate). The A’s have no problem hitting left-handed pitching (4th best in the league with a 105 wRC+ vs. LHP last year) and have plenty of options in play tonight vs. Smyly. Marcus Semien (.316 xwOBA vs. LHP since last year) leads off, followed by Mark Canha (.346), Matt Chapman (.294), Khris Davis (.355), Chad Pinder (.371) and Stephen Piscotty (.358). Jurickson Profar is hitting out of the 7 hole but has been on fire with a .452 xwOBA the last 7 days and makes for an intriguing low-owned play. Khris Davis should be chalk with 4 homers in his last 2 games, he also owns a .395 xwOBA over the last 7 days.
Other tagged players: Stephen Piscotty, Chad Pinder, Marcus Semien, Drew Smyly, Matt Chapman, Jurickson Profar, Mark Canha Value in Mets’ Lineup Tonight
The Mets face 23 year old rookie Kyle Wright in Atlanta Friday night, and their starting lineup has some underpriced bats. Wright is a decent prospect but is far from a finished product, he has an ugly 5.38 xFIP / .464 xwOBA to start 2019. Jeff McNeil ($4.1k) will lead off for NYM and has a 140 wRC+ in his career (218 PA) vs. RHP. Amed Rosario ($3.9k, batting 2nd) owns just an 82 wRC+ in his young career vs. RHP, but might be in the midst of a breakout with an .373 xwOBA to start 2019. Robinson Cano ($3.7k, batting 3rd) is always a solid option vs. RHP and had a 127 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2018. Michael Conforto will cost more ($4.7k) but is batting cleanup and has a career 136 wRC+ vs. RHP. Other intriguing options include Wilson Ramos ($3.8k, 125 wRC+ vs. RHP last year), Dominic Smith ($3.7k, 160 wRC+ this year) and power-speed threat Keon Broxton ($3.8k, career 92 wRC+). The Mets have a 4.89 implied total tonight.
Other tagged players: Jeff McNeil, Robinson Cano, Wilson Ramos, Kyle Wright, Amed Rosario, Dominic Smith Big OF
I started with Mookie Betts tagged here, and I love him just as much, but I’m finding myself shifting more to his teammate J.D. Martinez. The couple dollars in salary makes a difference, and in tournaments, the pure home run upside for Martinez comes out ahead for me. Play them both if possible, mix and match when needed, but when it has come down to one or the other, I’m starting with J.D more often.
Sox Have Highest Implied Total Friday Night
The Red Sox face David Hess at home Friday night and currently have an implied total of 6.12, highest on the board. Hess garnered some hype after his first start by showing increased velocity, but his pitch usage has remained virtually the same, and his stats so far (5.36 xFIP, 4.85 SIERA) suggest he’s still the same guy we want to target. Hess has nearly identical platoon splits in terms of xwOBA (.333 career xwOBA vs. LHB, .327 vs. RHB) but is more prone to HR vs. LHB with a 2.38 HR/9 compared to a 1.50 HR/9 vs. RHB. Though they’ve started slow, you’ll have to spend up for most of the Red Sox bats. J.D. Martinez (.513 xwOBA in 2019), Mitch Moreland (.452), Xander Bogaerts (.367) and Mookie Betts (.359) are middle of the order guys to build around. Benintendi (.304) hasn’t had the same success as last year but remains at the top of the order in the 2 spot. Eduardo Nunez (.176) and Jackie Bradley (.239) will be at the bottom of the order and can be had at a slight discount.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, David Hess, Jackie Bradley, Mitch Moreland A potential rebound in a great spot
While there are certainly some recognizable names on the Friday night board, guys like Eduardo Rodriguez, Jake Arrieta, Zack Wheeler, and J.A. Happ have all gotten off to concerning starts. This could be a slate where players might be rewarded for taking some chances, especially on a two pitcher site like DraftKings. Drew Pomeranz has performed marginally through two starts (4.00 ERA, 3 HRs), but against difficult offenses (Dodgers, Rays). The encouraging news here is that his velocity is back up to early 2017 levels after a disastrous latter part of that year and all of 2018. Pomeranz has struck out 26.2% of batters so far with a surprising 55.6 GB%. While the HRs and 14.8% Barrels/BBE are concerning, he’ll be facing a Rockies’ lineup (38 wRC+ on the road, 51 wRC+ vs LHP so far) that Jeff Samardzija mowed down last night in a great park. Pomeranz is priced at $8.1K on DraftKings (just $6.5K on FanDuel), but does compare favorably to some similar or even more highly priced pitchers in a favorable spot.
Control issues could lead to high scoring affair
While there are only four teams above five implied runs tonight, two teams with a healthy line above 4.5 runs could get lost in the shuffle in a nice spot. Zack Wheeler was a revelation last season. He had a lower second half ERA than teammate Jacob deGrom. Unfortunately, his first two starts of the new season look too much like his 2017 instead. While he only walked one his first time out, he did struggle with location and allowed four runs to Washington. It blew up in his face with seven walks against the same lineup last time out. Rookie Kyle Wright walked five Phillies of his own last time out. If either pitcher struggles with command again tonight, they may not get any help from hitter friendly umpire David Rackley. Both lineups are well disciplined, with walk rates of 9.9% or above vs RHP so far in 2019. While walks aren’t what daily fantasy players are looking for, there should be ample opportunities to drive runners in. Freddie Freeman (129 wRC+, .171 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) should be a key target here. LHBs have just a 35.5 GB% against Wheeler over the last calendar year. The Mets have Jeff McNeil (140 wRC+ vs RHP) in the leadoff spot with Michael Conforto (123 wRC+, .201 ISO) batting cleanup. LHBs have a 64.3 Hard% against Wright through two starts. This game total has moved up half a run from 9 to 9.5 since opening.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Michael Conforto, Kyle Wright, Zack Wheeler Friday night's top rookie pitcher so far may be the least heralded
Although tonight’s top pitchers are clearly Carlos Carrasco (@ Kansas City) and Patrick Corbin (vs Pittsburgh), several of the top pitching prospects in baseball are on display Friday night. Chris Paddack, Corbin Burnes, and Kyle Wright were all ranked between 30th and 40th on Fangraphs’ Top Prospects list this season. Each has fast-tracked their way through their respective organizations, but each has shown marginal results through a couple of outings this season and they may all be working with workload constraints tonight.
Paddock, the most expensive, has struck out one-third of the batters he’s faced, but with an 8.3 SwStr%. However, opponents have just an 81.8 Z-Contact% and haven’t barreled a ball yet (83.8 mph aEV). Burnes has been missing bats (39.1 K%, 16.7 SwStr%), but has allowed three HRs in each start (yes, six HRs over two starts, 25% Barrels/BBE) and faces the Dodgers (137 wRC+, 15.3 K%, 17.3 HR/FB vs RHP). Wright’s 52.2 Z-O-Contact% is worst on the board and he’s been hit failry hard too, as the three HRs and a .417 xwOBA would confirm.
The most interesting pitching prospect on the board may the most unheralded one. Trent Thornton brought no fanfare, but he did have a 17.6 K-BB% at AAA last year and has struck out 15 of 38 batters through two starts. A 12.6 SwStr% does not entirely support that rate, but it’s still above average. One small matter of concern is a 91.1 Z-Contact%. He has a slightly unfavorable matchup with the Rays at a reasonable price.
Offense Looks to Continue Hitting Despite Injuries
The Yankees continue to get hit by injury with Gary Sanchez hitting the Disabled List, but the team still has several hitters that could spell trouble for Chicago right-hander Lucas Giolito tonight. Aaron Judge has shown his typical power numbers early in the year, with 3 HRs over his first 56 plate appearances, and has a career slugging percentage almost 100 points higher against right-handed pitching. Greg Bird and Brett Gardner are two left-handed hitters to consider hitting high in the batting order as part of a team stack.
Other tagged players: Greg Bird, Brett Gardner
Hot Offense Gets Park Upgrade Taking On Struggling Left-Hander
Drew Smyly’s return to the majors after missing the past several season to injury has been a bit bumpy, with a 7.11 ERA and two losses over 6.1 innings in his first two starts. Tonight Smyly takes on an Oakland offense that gets a big park boost in Texas, starting with Khris Davis who has back-to-back 2 HR games. Marcus Semien, likely hitting leadoff, and Matt Chapman likely hitting second are two other Oakland right-handed hitters with power to look at as part of a stack.
Other tagged players: Marcus Semien, Matt Chapman Strikeout Pitcher Showing His Potential Early in the Season
Chris Paddack has shown well in his first two major league starts, striking out 11 hitters over 8.2 innings in the two games despite an abbreviated start in his second game. Tonight Paddack and the Padres are slight favorites in Arizona in a game with an 8.5 Vegas run total. Paddack’s strikeout potential is well-documented with 120 Ks in 90 minor-league innings last season, making him a GPP target if the Padres allow him to pitch further into games as the season goes on.
Change in Scenery
Drew Pomeranz is really only a “value” option on FanDuel and Yahoo! but I do still think the southpaw is worth taking a closer look at on DraftKings as well as a potential SP2 option. Pomeranz has shown some positive signs in two starts this season after a brutal 2018 and a change in scenery to a much more pitcher friendly Oracle Park should do the Giants lefty some good.
Affordable Exposure
The Boston Red Sox are the top overall stack of the slate and Jackie Bradley Jr is the most affordable way to get exposure to the stack without completely sacrificing upside (get out of here Pedroia). The biggest argument against JBJ is the depth of the OF position on Friday night but I’m all for using him in tournaments.
Bird is the Word
The Yankees injury luck just got even worse with the announcement that Gary Sanchez will be placed on the 10-day IL. Injury woes mean Bird will bat in the middle of the order for New York who still has a monster implied run total of 6-runs in a home matchup against Lucas Giolito. Bird hasn’t shown a ton of power yet this season but is the owner of a career .209 ISO against right handed pitching and will have the benefit of home cooking in the shape of the short porch in right field.