DFS Alerts
Powerful Bat
Nelson Cruz and the Mariners draw one of the best matchups of the day as they’ll square off against the Rangers and Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo has a slate worst 5.7% swinging strike-rate and simply miss bats any more at this stage of his career. The 38 year old Cruz still swings a powerful bat and his price tag especially sticks out on DraftKings where he’s only $4,100.
Too Cheap for Skill-Set
Paul Goldschmidt has had a quiet season yet he still absolutely owns the soul of left handed pitchers. On the season, Goldy owns a 157 wRC+ and an .276 ISO against southpaws. Goldy’s price tag is way too cheap for his skill-set at $4,600 on DK and under $4K on FanDuel.
NL Central Champs?
There are only four games being played on Sunday that have any sort of playoff implications behind them. DET @ MIL is one of them as the Brewers will send post-trade deadline acquisition Gio Gonzalez to the mound in an attempt to put Milwaukee in a spot to win the NL Central. A meaningful game is good, but it comes with concern as we already saw Craig Counsell pull Wade Miley after two innings on Saturday night. If Gio isn’t near perfect his day will be a short one but it’s an undeniably good run prevention spot for the lefty in a matchup against a poor Tigers offense.
Division On The Line
Being the last game of the regular season we’re looking for teams that still have something to play for, and well, there aren’t many left. The Dodgers need to win to win their division and Hill will get the ball in a a favorable road matchup against an anemic Giants offense. There is some concern here that Hill could see a short leash with a full bull pen to deploy if he gets in trouble but it still remains a plus spot for the Dodgers lefty who still has plenty of strikeout upside left in the tank.
Scherzer No More
I’m going to keep this short and sweet. The sites priced Rockies hitters as if they were going to face Max Scherzer. They are no longer facing Scherzer and are facing Erick Fedde. The pricing innacuracy is especially noticeable on DraftKings where Arenado is under $5K and Trevor Story is all the way down to $4,500.
Liam Hendriks will start and serve as an opener for the Athletics on Saturday; Trevor Cahill will follow
The Oakland Athletics have opted to continue occasionally utilizing an opening bullpen arm and will now force Trevor Cahill to come on in relief Saturday evening to work a majority of the team’s innings, opposed to making his originally scheduled start. He’ll be replaced on the mound at the outset by Liam Hendriks, who, like Cahill, is a right-handed pitcher, so his brief presence on the bump shouldn’t alter the projections of the Los Angeles Angels hitters in any significant fashion. That said, still be sure to double check out the Starting Lineups page and projections in LinuepHQ for any notable changes prior to submitting lineups for tonight’s main slate.
As reported by: Susan Slusser via Twitter Other tagged players: Trevor Cahill
Better than the Numbers Show
We all know that Calhoun started the season in absolutely terrible form, but since the beginning of July, Calhoun has 16 HR’s and a .200+ ISO. He’s priced at a very affordable 3.3k and should be leading off for the Angels. A lot of people will probably stay away from Calhoun here as his total season long numbers aren’t great and the matchup isn’t the easiest vs. Cahill, but he’s absolutely good enough to justify his price tag here. If you need to save some money, Calhoun is probably the way to go on todays slate.
A Cheap Power Bat
There are 2 things we know about O’Brian right now. The first is that he can hit the ball really hard and the second is that he’s really good at missing the ball entirely. Between the Majors and the minors this year, O’Brian has 34 Hr’s and is striking out at a 30% clip at near every level. This is a real boom or bust play here, but with Matz likely being chalky, you have a bit of a leverage play here at a not bad price tag of 3.6k over on DK.
A Super Value Bat
For some reason, DK doesn’t want to raise Fernandez price. Fernandez doesn’t have fantastic numbers this year (.130 ISO and .300 wOBA), but the guy doesn’t strike out a whole lot (10.3% vs RHP) and owns a respectible .379 CXwOBA, which means he’s due for some positive regression. Over on DK, he’s priced at the near min of 2.8k and should be batting second in the lineup. You aren’t going to find value like this often, so take advantage of it.
Hot Pitcher at a Low Price
Just by looking at the matchup and season long numbers for Matz this is already a spot where he’s worth his price. On the year, He has a 22.7% k rate and a 4.27 xFIP. He draws a matchup against the Marlins who’s projected lineup only 93 AB’s vs. LHP this year, so we can’t put too much stock into them, but as a whole these hitters have been bad this year. The Marlins have an above average K rate and well below average ISO and wOBA numbers. If all this weren’t enough, Matz has 2 15 DK point, 2 20 DK point, and one 30 DK point game in his last 7 games. The guy is pitching great right now, has a great matchup, and is pitching in a great pitchers ballpark. Everything points to him crushing is 6.7k pricetag over on DK. Godley may be the better play, but Matz isn’t far behind him.
Someone Fudged Up on this Guys Price
I don’t understand this at all. There is no way that Godley should be priced at 6.2k over on DK. On the year he owns one of the higher k rates on the slate (23.5%) and he gets a matchup against the team with the highest k rate vs. RHP this year (29.5% in the projected lineup). This game is being played in a great pitchers ballpark and Vegas has the Padres pegged at a 3.75 implied team total spot. This is a no brainer here and the only reason to fade Godley is ownership (which still isn’t enough of a reason in my opinion). Lock Godley in in cash and GPP’s
Starting Up the Value Pitching Train
Matz has been solid for the Mets since the beginning of August with the exception of a poor start his last time out, and this Marlins lineup isn’t one to inflict a lot of damage. There’s some upside with his slightly above average strikeout rate, and his batted ball profile is solid with a fair number of ground balls and relatively low hard contact. I expect Matz to be aggressive in this game against a limited offense with an angle of going out on a high note for 2018. This Mets team hasn’t played that poorly over the season’s final month, offering a bit of hope for the future. I will gladly take the savings here in both cash games and GPPs.
A Value Arm in a Good Matchup
Godley has been a frustrating arm to roster this season, and I wish godspeed to those of you who may have had him in season long leagues. He looked every bit of an ace at times a year ago, but the start to this season made it seem like all hope was lost. He’s faced some really tough lineups over his last three starts (Houston and Colorado twice), so we can forgive his slip up so far in September after a bit of a rebound around the All Star break. The bad news is that his bad games are really bad, and his last two starts against these Padres haven’t gone well. The good news is that he does have upside with an above average strikeout rate and 11.5% swinging strike rate. Let’s try the Godley express one more time in as good of a matchup as he could ask for at Petco Park. He’s cheap, and the opportunity cost isn’t all that high at pitcher on this slate.
Call Him Butter Because He's On A Roll
t’s a tough sell on both sides of the Coors Field game tonight with good pitchers going for both sides (Strasburg and Gray), but yet we have a park that yields tons of offense. I’m inclined to go with the red hot team with motivation here, and that would be the Rockies. They have won eight in a row and are steam-rolling toward an NL West title. They do clinch the division if the Dodgers lose their afternoon game, but the Rockies will still be vying for seeding with the Braves in any case. Plus, I’m not sure even mother nature could stop David Dahl at this point. Dahl has been absolutely locked in this week with home runs in five straight games and nine hits during that span. Even though the Rockies are facing a tough pitcher in Strasburg, I can’t get away from a locked-in hitter on a team that still has motivation, especially when that hitter is playing at Coors Field.
Reasonable Price and Good Metrics against LHP
Detroit isn’t a good team, but Wade Miley isn’t a great pitcher, and the Tigers profile better against lefties. Jeimer Candelario sports a .361 wOBA and .203 ISO against lefties and is a fine mid-range option on this slate. Nick Castellanos also has elite marks that include a .429 wOBA, an OPS over 1.000, and a 176 wRC+ against lefties. James McCann hasn’t been as good this year but is a value play that hits in the middle of the lineup. Candelario is the best point per dollar option here, while I like Castellanos a lot if you have the salary.