DFS Alerts
Huge Upside in Arizona
Matt Koch is one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball and the Dodgers see a significant ballpark boost with the roof being open in Chase Field. It’s expected to be in the mid-90s when this game kicks off. On the season, Koch has a strikeout rate of only 14% and he has allowed a .370+ xwOBA and a 44%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. The Dodgers are still fighting for the division title, so they have plenty of motivation to play well. Manny Machado has mashed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .243 ISO this season.
Surprise, Surprise
Surprise, surprise. The team with the highest implied run total on the slate makes for a good team to stack. I typically wouldn’t even point out such an obvious stack but this “obvious” stack so ownership in the high single digits-low teens in an even better matchup last night and will likely go a bit under-owned again tonight on a full 14-game slate. With high priced pitching options garnering a lot of the ownership, saving at pitcher and spending on your stack is going to be a way to differentiate lineup construction on Tuesday night and expensive Colorado hitters are my favorite place to spend.
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado
Won't Call Off The Dogs
On the surface, Austin Gomber and his 3.63 ERA make him out out to be an above average pitcher. In reality, that’s likely far from the case. Gomber has struggled big time against right handed hitters this season posting a 4.91 xFIP and has only been able to generate soft on 14% of batted balls. Hard hit balls are what we’re looking for and with the Brewers being able to run out a lineup full of righty hitters Gomber could be in for a long night. Milwaukee is still in the race for the Division and is one of the few teams that won’t call of the dogs if they jump out to a big early lead.
Other tagged players: Jesus Aguilar, Lorenzo Cain, Jonathan Schoop I've Got a Thing
I’ve got a thing for Touki. I’m a huge fan boy and rode him to a 23.4 DK pt performance his last time out against the Cardinals. We’ll have to dodge weather in this one but if we are able to he gets a favorable matchup against a projected Mets lineup that owns a strikeout rate north of 22% this season against right handed pitchers. Touki showed his strikeout upside in this Minors earlier this year maintaining a strikeout rate near 30% and he’s been above average in that category over his handful of Major League starts.
Good Context
Pitchers that aren’t very good can still put up strong fantasy performances in the right context. Chris Stratton’s context is favorable on Tuesday night as he and the Giants host the whiff-heavy Padres at pitcher friendly AT&T Park. These are two of the worst offenses in the league currently as both teams have implied run totals south of four runs and Bryan Mitchell put up a 31+ pt DK performance against San Francisco last night. Bad offenses in a pitcher friendly park = not very many runs. It’s a simple equation, yet Stratton will likely see relatively low ownership due to poor season long numbers.
Highest priced pitchers in meaningful games
Three pitchers exceed the $10K price point on both sites tonight and as luck would have it, all three are pitching for something. All three would seem nearly equally solid, but not spectacular values. Max Scherzer (34.6 K%, 2.72 SIERA, .261 xwOBA) has no post-season aspirations, but is still in Cy Young contention and has a great matchup against the Marlins (86 wRC+, 15.6 K-BB%, 11 HR/FB vs RHP). He’s allowed at least three runs in five straight starts, but more than that only once, while his strikeout rate (34.6%), SIERA (2.63) and xwOBA (.273) are all on their season marks over that span. Scherzer is over $1K more expensive than any other pitcher on either site tonight. Luis Severino (28.1 K%, 3.24 SIERA, .309 xwOBA) is fighting for a home wild card game in Tampa Bay tonight (111 wRC+ at home, 106 wRC+ vs RHP, 133 wRC+ last seven days). Despite the 4.00 ERA over the last month, his strikeout rate, SIERA, and xwOBA are all improved over their season marks over that span. He’s allowed just two runs over his last 11.2 innings. Walker Buehler (28.9 K%, 3.15 SIERA, .270 xwOBA) is pitching in the most important game for the Dogders in Arizona (81 wRC+, 24.2 K% vs RHP) because the Rockies are still just 1.5 games behind. His numbers over the last month are all major improvements on his strong season numbers too (34.5 K%, 2.74 SIERA, .244 xwOBA). He’s allowed more than two runs in just one of his last 10 starts and has struck out at least nine in three of his last four. Trevor Bauer and Noah Syndergaard both reach $10K only on DraftKings. Neither is pitching for anything, more concerning in the case of Bauer, who is simply getting himself ready for the post-season after returning from injury. Both games have weather concerns as well.
Other tagged players: Max Scherzer, Luis Severino, Noah Syndergaard, Trevor Bauer
Right-Handed Power in Boston
The Red Sox should be able to cruise to a victory tonight against the Orioles. They have the clear edge in pitching and offensively, which should result in a blowout. Granted, anything can happen in baseball, but I don’t see how the Orioles stay competitive here. Jimmy Yacabonis is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a .336 xwOBA to lefties and a .358 xwOBA to righties. We know this ballpark favors right-handed power, so the trio of Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts stands out in this matchup.
Best Possible Matchup for a Bounce-Back
Price struggled in his last start against the Yankees, but that’s a trend that has been going on for years. I’m willing to overlook one bad start and look at his season as a whole. In 29 starts, he owns a 3.80 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 7%. He comes into tonight’s game as a -320 favorite against the Orioles, who may have the worst lineup in baseball. Their projected starters for tonight’s game own an average xwOBA of .270 with a strikeout rate of 27% against southpaws. I’m buying low on Price and will be using him in all formats.
Elite Production all Season
Scherzer has been a beast this season, posting a 2.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35%. Don’t be concerned with his 7.36 ERA over his last two outings, as his advanced numbers in those starts were still elite. He’s clearly the top pitching option on the board tonight, as he takes on a struggling Marlins’ offense at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Miami’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .312 with a strikeout rate of 23% against right-handed pitching.
Back On Top Tonight
The Rockies had a 10-run outburst last night and face an even more attackable pitcher tonight, with Vince Velasquez seeing a sharp drop in innings recently to go along with his 4.99 second half ERA. Even if he were to pop back into top form, he is a beatable pitcher with left-handed batters. On the season, an average 23% strikeout rate is his only skill, as he’s allowed 41% fly balls with no ability to limit hard contact and shaky control leading to a .374 wOBA and .233 ISO against. Blackmon is more than fairly priced on FD and is a cash game anchor as well as someone to consider going overweight on in tournaments.
The Best Play In A Strong Lineup
The Astros have a lot of upside as a team tonight, especially once they get into the bullpen. But in the first few turns through the lineup, Marwin Gonzalez is the prime play to attack the splits of Sam Gaviglio. Gaviglio’s ground balls and strikeouts to righties can mute some of the Houston power, but against lefties, he has just a 15.3% K rate with no ground ball or soft contact ability. Gonzalez has gotten stronger as the seaosn moves on, with a 49% hard hit rate and .370 wOBA in the month of September. He is affordably priced and dual position eligible on DK/FDRFT making him a useful play in all formats.
Can't Pass On This Salary
The cheap Angels, Kole Calhoun and Jose Miguel Fernandez were disappointments last night, but the matchup is even better tonight, and the salaries are just as useful. If you’re game log watching and want to avoid Calhoun, I completely understand, but I’m playing the skills and the matchup, which say he’s underpriced here. It’s been an awful September in surface results for Calhoun, but there’s nothing but fluke in a 40% hard hit rate and .111 BABIP. He has nowhere to go but up, and facing the low strikeouts and high walks of Yovani Gallardo, his on base and run scoring upside alone are worth the salary, even before factoring in his power potential with his 44% hard hits against right-handed pitching.
The Regression Monster Is Angry
Austin Gomber is a pitcher with below average skills across the board to right-handed batters, who has lucked his way into a 3.63 ERA despite a scary high 4.72 SIERA. He has shown absolutely no ability to limit hard contact to righties at 42%, no ability to keep the ball on the ground, and below average strikeouts along with high walks. Ryan Braun is way too cheap for his .262 ISO, .371 wOBA and huge 54% hard hit rate against lefties.
Ace Worthy Skills
Walker Buehler has quickly turned into the ace he was expected to be. His impressive 28.9% K rate in his rookie season is continuing to go up as the season moves on, up to a 34.5% rate over the past month. He has a high 27% soft contact rate to righties with 27% K and 30% strikeouts to lefties, making him nearly untouchable from both sides. The Dodgers have taken the training wheels off with the pitch count, topping 100 pitches in six of his last 10 starts, and with every game counting, there’s no reason that should change now. I prefer Scherzer, but the salary gap on FD is too big for the skills gap and I’d be happy to use Buehler as my ace there.
Just Play The Best
Max Scherzer has been an elite real life and DFS pitcher all season, and he’s showing no signs of a slowdown. He has an incredible 17 double digit strikeout games, including three of his last four outings. His only risk comes from his high fly ball rate, and this is an ideal opponent with the lack of power in the Miami lineup. The Nationals have no reason to limit his workload in his final home start of the season and still in the hunt for the Cy Young Award. On DK/FDRFT, he is fittable in all formats if willing to cheaper at SP2, while on FD, he’s more of a tournament option.