DFS Alerts

Loaded Offense With A Value Piece

The Dodgers a prime candidate for offense tonight against Matt Koch and the Arizona bullpen. Koch has shown no ability to limit hard contact, with 44% hard hits allowed to lefties and 46% to righties with low strikeouts. The Dodgers are loaded up with seven batters above a .200 ISO against right-handed pitching, and Joc Pederson has a way-too-low $3,100 price tag on FD with his .296 ISO, .384 wOBA, 44% hard hits and 42% fly balls.

Take Advantage On FanDuel

I love taking advantage of mispriced players, and we’re getting that with Joc Pederson tonight. He is the third highest priced hitter on DraftKings at $5,700, but he’s an insane value at FanDuel. He’s only $3,100 on FanDuel, and he will be in all three lineups I build over there. We have the roof open in Arizona tonight, and the Dodgers face a pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact and has allowed a .191 ISO with a 44.1% hard-hit rate against lefties this season. Joc has a .296 ISO with a 43.8% hard-hit rate against righties.

I Always Attack This Pitcher

The Texas Rangers starters are really bad, and I don’t know why they’re not giving some of the younger guys innings at this point. Gallardo has been straight up awful this season, as he has a 5.46 xFIP with a 13.9% strikeout rate and a 11.3% walk rate. He has a .351 wOBA with a .195 ISO and a 37.6% hard-hit rate against lefties. I like Calhoun against pitchers with lower strikeout rates, and he presents really good value hitting leadoff for the Angels tonight. I think the Angels are one of the best stacks tonight, and with Calhoun/Miguel Fernandez, you’re able to play good pitching with the stack.

Didn't Realize How Good He's Been

I like the price tag on Braun tonight, and he’s underpriced for a matchup with a left-handed pitcher. He has a .262 ISO with a .371 wOBA and a .549 CXwOBA with a 96.7mph average exit velocity against left-handed pitching this season. Braun also has a 53.8% hard-hit rate and he’s been able to do this with a 13.3% strikeout rate. Gomber has struggled with power righties and has allowed a 42% hard-hit rate in 215 PAs against right-handed hitters.

Cheaper Option With Big Time Strikeout Upside

Josh James has an electric fastball and has shown big time strikeout ability at every level he’s pitched at. In 17 starts (92.2 IP) in AAA this season, he’s posted a 35.2% strikeout rate with a 14.3% swinging strike rate. The biggest concern with him and really any young pitcher is the walks. The Blue Jays projected starting lineup has a .218 ISO with a .368 wOBA and a 21.1% strikeout rate. The wOBA and the ISO are very solid, bit it’s a smaller sample size on some of these bats. They have five starters with strikeout rates over 23.5% against right-handed pitching this season.

Adrian Sampson has allowed a .366 wOBA to batters from either side in very limited big league work this season, but he’s also pitching with one of the worst bullpens in baseball behind him. A 4.76 implied run line is fairly high for the Angels at home and the lineup includes a lot of unknown games, but the top of it is looking pretty strong, headlined by Mike Trout (199 wRC+, .341 ISO vs RHP this season) and Shohei Ohtani (180 wRC+, .333 ISO). Cheaper exposure can be had anywhere else in the lineup without another batters above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Cole Calhoun (82 wRC+, .192 ISO) costs just $3.4K on DraftKings in the leadoff spot.

Despite strong results, still too many walks and too much hard contact

While the results for Robbie Ray have been strong recently, he’s still walking far too many batters and allowing far too much hard contact (45+ Hard% five of last six). The Dodgers have just a 3.94 implied run line against him, but there may be some potential in Arizona with the roof open. RHBs have a .333 wOBA and xwOBA with a 46 Hard% and 35.3 GB% against Ray this season. Justin Turner (177 wRC+, .220 ISO vs LHP this year) could benefit from another elite third baseman in a great spot in Toronto and is a great pivot. Manny Machado (149 wRC+, .250 ISO) is a top SS bat tonight. Chris Taylor (112 wRC+, .206 ISO) has a 174 wRC+ over the last week.

Some rain potential in a few spots

Monday’s forecast has been updated and there is at least some rain potential in a few spots tonight. The full report is now available on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can join Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET for further updates.

Two Up Top

It’s a virtual tie between Corey Kluber and Stephen Strasburg up top tonight. The $800 difference on FanDuel is proving to be very useful, so I’m leaning towards more Strasburg at this point. Strasburg looks to be closing out the season on a high note, with 20 strikeouts in his last two starters, and that makes five solid outings in a row since coming off the DL. With this being his final home start of the season, it seems doubtful they would limit his pitches now, and if he comes out firing again, we could see a repeat of his 11-K game against this Miami team from last week.

Few core plays despite elite run projection

It should come as no surprise that the Rockies have the highest implied run line on the board (6.04) and with the lineup that Cleveland recently released, they should be able to open the gap towards the next highest team even farther. Zach Eflin struck out more than five last time out for the first time in seven starts and has allowed a total of one run over his last two after allowing at least three in nine of his previous ten. He’s been fairly dominant against RHBs this season (.283 wOBA, 27.4 Hard%), but LHBs are another story (.353 wOBA). The clear focus here should be on Charlie Blackmon (117 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP this year) and David Dahl (112 wRC+, .242 ISO) as core Coors plays. Blackmon is the only player in the lineup above a 60 wRC+ over the last week (10 PA min.). Count Nolan Arenado (95 wRC+, .195 ISO) among the struggling, but he does own a 53.3 Hard% over the last seven days that suggests he could be ready to snap out of it.

Nine HRs allowed last five starts

Jon Gray did not allow a HR in either of his two starts back from the minors. He’s allowed at least one in each of his last 10 since. He’s allowed two in four of his last five. Over this five game span, HRs have been split fairly evenly with batters from either side above a .377 wOBA, though there is a 10 points split in his ground ball rate (42% vs LHBs). The Phillies have a surprisingly low 4.4 implied run line at Coors tonight. Part of that may be because they have just one batter in the lineup above a 100 wRC+ or 30 Hard% over the last week. Rhys Hoskins (137 wRC+, .281 ISO) is the only batter in this lineup above a .200 ISO vs RHP this year, but Carlos Santana (105 wRC+, .176 ISO) would appear to be in a strong spot as well. Cesar Hernandez (101 wRC+, .127 ISO) lacks power, but is in a premium lineup spot at the top of the order.

RHBs could unexpectedly be more valuable than LHBs in this lineup

Ironic that Sandy Alcantara was thought of a potential bullpen arm without the ability to get LHBs out, yet through four starts, they have just a .241 wOBA against him. While Statcast brings that mark up to .305, that’s still an above average mark and much better than his performance against RHBs (.341 wOBA, .365 xwOBA). The most stunning thing is a 40 point difference in his ground ball rate as well (24% to 64.7%). Still a small sample, this may be something GPP players may want to act on in making Trea Turner (102 wRC+, .143 ISO vs RHP this year) and Anthony Rendon (133 wRC+, .194 ISO) core plays from this lineup implied for 4.72 runs rather than LHBs. In fact, Turner and Rendon each have a wRC+ above 220 over the last seven days, the only marks above 100 in this lineup.

Elite third base play against a reverse split, home run prone pitcher

The Houston Astros get a park upgrade tonight and face a RHP with a fairly sizable platoon split. This makes them the lowest of four teams above five implied runs tonight (5.21) in Toronto. Marco Estrada has allowed RHBs a .388 wOBA with 18 HRs this season. Believe it or not, Alex Bregman (155 wRC+, .243 ISO) is the only batter in the lineup above a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP this season in tonight’s lineup. Despite a 30 wRC+ over the last week, he’s an elite third base play at a reduced price of $4.5K on DraftKings. Jose Altuve (145 wRC+, .147 ISO) and George Springer (114 wRC+, .156 ISO) are the only other players in among the first eight in the order above a 100 wRC+ against RHP this year.

Large platoon split, but surrendering HRs to everyone

The Red Sox have things pretty well wrapped up, but still offer their regular lineup tonight at home against Dylan Bundy. At Fenway tonight, Boston is one of just four teams above five implied runs (5.25) despite cooler temperatures and the wind blowing in. Bundy has allowed 38 HRs and while there is a vast difference in his splits by wOBA (LHBs .397, RHBs .321) and an even larger 100 point split by xwOBA, RHBs actually have 21 of those HRs. Good news for the most elite bats in the lineup: Mookie Betts (173 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP this year), J.D. Martinez (175 wRC+, .320 ISO) and Xander Bogaerts (133 wRC+, .246 ISO). Fenway is much more power friendly to RHBs. Andrew Benenintendi (132 wRC+, .185 ISO) and Rafael Devers (96 wRC+, .207 ISO) find themselves in strong spots as well with the latter batting fifth tonight.

Five above a 120 wRC+ and .260 ISO vs LHP

Both the Yankees and Rays will be pitching out of the bullpen tonight, but if Ryan Yarbrough is expected to get the bulk of the game behind opener Diego Castillo, it may be important to mention that every player in the lineup for the Yankees tonight is above a 110 wRC+ vs LHP and each of the first eight batters in the lineup are above a .195 ISO as well. Five players also exceed a 120 wRC+ and .260 ISO vs LHP. Giancarlo Stanton (170 wRC+, .319 ISO) and Luke Voit (183 wRC+, .357 ISO) have been out of control. Also important to note, armed with this information, Yarbrough may not go through this order more than once and this is not a meaningful game for the Yankees, who experience a significant park down grade tonight.