DFS Alerts
Daily Bullpen Alert: Rookie starters for bottom of the board pens
What a difference a weekend makes. That and the fact that rosters have been expanded for nearly a month now. Only two major league bullpens have a FIP above five over the last 30 days. The Marlins (5.69 FIP, 9.2 K-BB%) separate themselves from the rest of the pack. Sandy Alcantara makes his fifth start in Washington, but has been averaging nearly six innings per start through his first four. Adrian Sampson makes his third start for the Rangers (5.20 FIP, 8.6 K-BB%) in Los Angeles (AL). He’s totaled 10.2 innings in his two starts. The Yankees (3.61 K-BB%, 20.1 K-BB%) and Brewers (2.86 FIP, 21.4 K-BB%) are going entirely with bullpens today. The Brewers are still fighting for post-season positioning against the Cardinals. The Yankees haven’t clinched home field for the WIld Card game and are in Tampa Bay tonight. These are two of the strongest pens in baseball over the last month.
Three highest strikeout rates on the board below $10K
There are three pitchers on the board above a 30% strikeout rate tonight. None of them cost more than $10K on either site. Robbie Ray (31.1 K%, 3.88 SIERA, .314 xwOBA) finds himself hosting the Dodgers (141 wRC+, 19.7 HR/FB last seven days). He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in six straight, but has still walked 11 of his last 66 batters and has a hard hit rate above 45% in five of those six starts. James Paxton (32 K%, 3.03 SIERA, .299 xwOBA) makes his first start in over two weeks against the A’s (139 wRC+ last seven days) in a meaningless game. Jack Flaherty (30.1 K%, 3.48 SIERA, .280 xwOBA) pitches a critical game for the Cardinals against the Brewers (24.5 K% vs RHP). Also, Derek Holland (24 K%) gets the Padres (16.3 K-BB% vs LHP).
Other tagged players: Robbie Ray, James Paxton, Derek Holland Motivation needs to be considered for high priced pitchers this week
Monday’s MLB slate boasts three pitchers above $10K on both sites with one more reaching that mark only on DraftKings. At this point in the season, DFS players need to examine the motivations of certain teams, particularly those who are already locked into a specific post-season slot. That is certainly the cast for Cleveland with Corey Kluber (25.9 K%, 3.26 SIERA, .295 xwOBA) on the mound against in Chicago (AL) (18.7 K-BB% vs RHP). It’s a high upside spot and Kluber has a 33.1 K% over the last month, but the Tribe may not be motivated to extend him very far tonight. The same can’t’ be said of Clayton Kershaw (24.1 K%, 3.42 SIERA, .289 xwOBA) with the Dodgers just a game and a half up in the division. Kershaw is in Arizona (81 wRC+ at home, 93 wRC+ vs LHP, 42 wRC+ last seven days). He’s gone at least six innings in 14 straight starts with as many as three ERs in only two of those. However, he has just a 21.3 K%, 3.94 SIERA and .310 xwOBA over the last month, which are basically all league average numbers. Stephen Strasburg (28.9 K%, 3.24 SIERA, .314 xwOBA) has allowed two ERs or less in five straight and struck out 20 of his last 53 batters. He’s in a nice spot at home against the Marlins (85 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP). Jameson Taillon (22.8 K%, 3.75 SIERA, .296 xwOBA) has seen another strikeout rate spike over the last month (28.6%) and has gone seven innings in three of his last four starts. The price hike comes in a tough spot at Wrigley (Cubs 12.4 K-BB% vs RHP). Both the Nationals and Cubs are out of contention at this point.
Other tagged players: Corey Kluber, Stephen Strasburg, Jameson Taillon Unappealing Offense in a Great Matchup
The Giants have been an easy offense to avoid this season, especially over the last couple of months. They have a serious lack of talent and their home ballpark is one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. With that said, we need value tonight and there is plenty of it in this Giants’ lineup. As far as matchups go, there are few more favorable than this one. Bryan Mitchell has more walks than strikeouts this season and he has allowed a .400+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.
Elite Strikeout Upside at a Discount
Flaherty has quietly had a tremendous season. In 25 starts, he owns a 2.86 ERA (3.47 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 30%. If you are looking for a pivot off of the popular aces tonight, Flaherty might be the answer to your problems. He has as much strikeout upside as any pitcher on the mound tonight and he’s considerably cheaper than Corey Kluber, Stephen Strasburg, and Clayton Kershaw. In three starts against Milwaukee this season, Flaherty has averaged 29 fantasy points (DK scoring). The matchup looks tough on paper, but we are getting a serious discount on Flaherty tonight.
Just Too Cheap
It’s been a rough couple weeks for Calhoun and if you’re a game log watcher, you might want to steer clear here. However, there doesn’t appear to be anything more than random bad luck going on, as Calhoun has a crazy low .119 BABIP in September despite a big 45% hard hit rate and while he’s struck out a little more, he is also taking plenty of walks. With the big issue being strikeouts, this is the night to get back on board, as Texas’ Adrian Sampson has no strikeout ability. He has struck out just five batters in his first 11 innings in the majors after posting just a 15.8% K rate at Triple-A.
Another Team To Love
The Astros join the Rockies and Red Sox at the top of the heap tonight with a projected total above 5 runs. They are facing a power prone fly ball pitcher who has been awful for most of the second half. Maybe Marco Estrada is OK and he has looked a little better in his last two starts, but we’re looking at a 14.1% K rate with 10.6% BB and a 7.11 ERA since the All-Star Break. He is more of a reverse splits pitcher, but Marwin Gonzalez has the salary and lineup spot to be a standout play here with a lot of added upside form the team around him. Gonzalez has been outstanding recently, with just a 12.1% K rate in the month of September along with a 49% hard hit rate and .370 wOBA.
Pitcher Swap
Monday night is a Coors slate and Rockies ownership is likely to out-pace Phillies ownership. Tyler Anderson was scheduled to pitch for the Rockies in this one but was scratched with a shoulder issue and Jon Gray will replace him in the rotation. A pitcher swap is likely a net negative for the Phillies but the team still has an implied run total north of five runs and is a strong team to target at hitter friendly Coors.
Other tagged players: Wilson Ramos, Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera
Young Stud in the Outfield
The Orioles are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but draw a mediocre matchup against Nathan Eovaldi and will be facing him in less than ideal hitting conditions (cold with the wind blowing in from right field). On the season, Eovaldi has held right-handed hitters to a .283 xwOBA, while allowing a .331 xwOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. Rookie DJ Stewart is the sole batter that I have interest in from Baltimore tonight and that’s only if he’s batting toward the top of the lineup. He finished his Triple-A season with 11 stolen bases and 12 home runs.
West Coast Hammer
The Los Angeles Angels are facing one of the worst starting pitchers on the slate yet they’ll still likely see low ownership because of their price tags and this game being played on the West Coast. Kole Calhoun is the one Angels hitter priced cheap enough for cash game discussion but Trout, Ohtani and Upton are a tough fit on a slate with Coors bats and high priced pitching. Despite an unfavorable park, the expensive trio still has a lot of pop and make for strong GPP plays in a plus-matchup.
Other tagged players: Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton Power Matchup
The Astros are still fighting to clinch their division and they get a strong power matchup on the road against fly baller Marco Estrada in Toronto. Houston has a host of injury situations we’ll have to monitor but provided a near full strength lineup the Stros are one of my favorite stacks of the night. Alex Bregman’s price tag specifically pops out on DK ($4,500) and he’s a strong pivot of the heaver owned Nolan Arenado.
Other tagged players: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, George Springer Push It Real Good
I’ve been sort of puzzled by Strasburg’s usage as the season winds down. Stras has topped 100 pitches his last three starts and there has been little reason to push him with the Nats out of playoff contention. If Stras continues to get a leash into the 100-pitch range he’s one of the top overall options on the slate against a Marlins team that has an implied run total south of three runs.
Watered Down
Is Dylan Bundy worth risking in GPP? We can’t answer that question until we see what sort of lineup the Red Sox roll out. The Red Sox have been one of the more liberal teams in resting every day players as their post-season journey approaches and they are coming off a Sunday night game in Cleveland. I think there’s a chance we see a watered down Boston lineup on Monday night, it’s just a question of how watered down. Bundy has shown he has the ability to miss bats with a 12.8% swinging strike rate and a respectable 24.3% strikeout rate – he’s a solid pitcher when he puts it all together. If Bundy does in fact face a weakened Boston lineup, I like him quite a bit in GPPs.
Save Some Money Out West
Finding some salary savers is a key on this slate, with obvious things to pay up for with both pitching and hitting. The top of the Angels lineup has a couple of prime candidates in Kole Calhoun and Jose Miguel Fernandez against Adrian Sampson, who has managed just 5 strikeouts in his first 11 innings after posting just a 15.8% K rate at Triple-A. Fernandez is an elite contact hitter who never struck out more than 9% of the time at any level of the minors and has just a 12% K rate with average hard hit ability who costs basically nothing. If he is batting in between Calhoun and Trout tonight, the run and RBI upside is too good to pass up at this salary with all these balls in play.
Elite Matchup at Home
The most difficult decision in tonight’s slate is at pitcher. There are a number of aces taking the mound and they are all priced fairly close to one another. In 19 starts this season, Strasburg has a 3.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of only 6%. While it’s always hard to face the same offense in consecutive starts, Strasburg had no issues with the Marlins his last time out. He struck out 11 batters and picked up the win. He’ll probably be the most popular pitcher owned tonight, but we can look to differentiate our lineups elsewhere.