DFS Alerts
Just Too Cheap
Tyler Anderson has pitched really well this season, and I don’t typically pick on him when he’s pitching on the road. With that being said, he’s pitching at home tonight, and it’s very rare we get a cheap hitter in Coors Field. If you’re not paying up at shortstop tonight, I like Kingery at $3,000 on DraftKings. He doesn’t have any great stats to back up the play, but at this price, I’m willing to play anyone in Coors. On top of that, he’s a shortstop, and I love taking cheap shortstops.
Another Team To Like
There are a few teams headlining the slate tonight, and getting affordable exposure to them is a priority tonight. The Red Sox are at home against Dylan Bundy, who has the highest home run rate of all qualified starters in the league. He allows power to both sides of the plate, putting the big bats of Betts/Martinez firmly in play. But there are significant splits with Bundy, as he has a huge 31.1% K rate to righties that falls all the way to 17.8% to lefties. That put Moreland at the top of the Boston value list at his salary. By all means, get the big outfielders in your lineup if you can, but Moreland gets you middle of the order access to this Boston team without breaking the bank, and he has plenty of power upside of his own with his .205 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Like The Advanced Numbers
I’ve been playing Franmil Reyes against lefties since he was called up, and it’s been a profitable position to take, as he has a .270 ISO with a .431 wOBA and a .550 CXwOBA against lefties in 84 PAs. He also has a 47.1% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching. The biggest issue is the strikeouts, and Holland has a really good strikeout rate against righties. While he has a good strikeout rate, he has a .337 wOBA with a .203 ISO and a 44.8% hard-hit rate. If there’s contact made tonight, I’d expect it to be hard contact, and at this price, I love taking the upside of the hitter.
Low Strikeout Rate
With limited pitching value, we’re going to be searching for value hitters in good spots to attack. Kole Calhoun and any of the cheap Angels that crack the lineup are in play tonight. Sampson doesn’t grade out as a massive strikeout pitcher, and in the small sample size we’ve seen so far, he has very little strikeout stuff. Meanwhile, Calhoun has a .192 ISO with a .445 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. I like to target him against right-handed pitching with little strikeout ability because of his high strikeout rate.
The Risk Is Worth The Reward
If you’re looking for more upside, Eovaldi has been quite boom or bust this season. He got destroyed last time against this team, but I’m willing to go back to the well. The projected starting lineup for Baltimore has six guys with strikeout rates over 23% against right-handed pitching this season. They also project to have five right-handed hitters, and Eovaldi has been much better against right-handed hitters this season. This may be the last chance he has to prove himself before the playoffs start.
The One To Spend On
Just as we have a lot of high end pitching, there is also an obvious top tier of offenses tonight. Among them, the Rockies stand out as the highest projected scoring team, and against Zach Eflin, it is the left-handed bats to start with. Eflin is a strike thrower who can’t keep the ball on the ground against left-handed bats. Blackmon has home run power, on base plate skills, speed and all kinds of run scoring upside leading off in Coors Field.
Let's Try This Again
We don’t have a lot of cheaper options that I like on this slate, and Felix Pena at home against Texas makes sense. Texas is a much better team at home, and with nothing to play for, we may see some younger guys in the lineup. Pena has posted a 4.10 xFIP with a 21.8% strikeout rate and a 7.5% walk rate on the season. He’s been much better against righties, and that’s the only thing that worries me about this lineup. One of the good things has been his ability to limit the power against left-handed hitters. It’s not a safe spot, but it’s one of the better spots to attack on this slate.
A Lot To Like
We have a strong group of pitchers tonight, with a lot to like in the upper tier. In the final week of the season, there is a lot of guesswork with innings, but there is no reason to expect anything too much shorter than usual for Corey Kluber. The Indians are still a week and a half out form the start of the playoffs, and Kluber was given a full workload in his last start. Even if he ends up an inning shorter, there is still plenty of upside against the White Sox. Kluber’s strikeouts have been trending up, to 26.1% in the second half and 33.1% over the past month, including two double digit K games in his last three starts. He has the elite control to fall back on even when the strikeouts are just OK, but facing the White Sox, who have the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed batters, we could see another upside start here. Kluber is my preferred pitcher to spend on in all formats.
Surprise Leadoff Hitter To Consider
The Marlins are giving J.T. Riddle a shot at the leadoff spot on Sunday in what could be a sneaky over-looked spot. I get that nobody wants to play the Marlins, but Riddle is cheap and will hold the platoon-advantage. He’ll tee off against Michael Lorenzen, who is only expected to throw 60-70 pitches today and has struggled against lefties (Riddle is a lefty). On the season, Lorezen is allowing a .274 average and a .798 OPS to left-handed batters, which plays in Riddle’s favor.
Cheap Leadoff Hitter In Prime Spot
I don’t love the idea of trying to pick on Carlos Rodon, who I do consider a good pitcher and respect, but Albert Almora will likely bat leadoff against Rodon in a fantastic hitter’s ballpark. Almora takes a .304 batting average and .766 OPS against lefties into Chicago, and the Cubs have one of the higher implied team totals on today’s slate. Rodon has been stellar this season, however, allowing just nine home runs to right-handed batters all year through 117.1 innings. If you want cheap exposure to the Cubs, getting it through Almora makes a lot of sense.
Cheap Pitcher With Upside Against Woeful Offense
This is not for the faint of heart, but Daniel Norris is an interesting upside-pitcher today against the Royals. The good: Norris has averaged 5.5 strikeouts over his last four outings and now faces a Royals offense among the bottom six in both team wOBA and team wRC+ against lefties. The bad: Norris hasn’t been able to top more than 5.1 innings this season. He did get up to 96 pitches in his last outing so there’s the silver lining, but his track record doesn’t suggest he’ll go deep into games. If you feel like a cheap YOLO pitcher, give Norris a look.
Below Average, Can't Miss Bats
Thing I like: below average pitchers. Things I really like: below average pitchers that can’t miss bats. Ryan Borucki and his 4.72 SIERA and 7.4 SwStr% fall into the latter category. Tommy Pham is my favorite Rays hitter to own but guys like Matt Duffy are too cheap for the matchup and should draw consideration for your cash game lineups as well.
Stubborn
One thing we shouldn’t be in DFS is stubborn. Unfortunately, I am. I can’t get over how lucky Carlos Rodon has gotten the second half of the season. Rodon is the owner of a 3.22 ERA but a well below league average 5.10 SIERA. He’s the owner of a career low 17.7% strikeout rate and is letting baserunners steal on him at a high rate. This should be a pitcher we pick on but it hasn’t been working. Well, here we are again with the Cubs as they have an implied run total of five runs and are still playing for the Divisional crown. I love a Cubs stack in GPP and will be sprinkling Cubbies in cash game builds.
Good In Real Life
Here’s the thing: I’m not a huge fan of Mikolas from a fantasy perspective. Miles has a well below league average strikeout rate (17.5%) which really hurts his fantasy value in terms of both floor and ceiling projections. Reality is Mikolas is likely a better real life pitcher than fantasy pitcher but I’m still fine rostering him here in a favorable home matchup against a poor San Francisco Giants offense. It’s unlikely you’re going to get a double-digit strikeout performance out of Mikolas any time soon but it is a good run prevention spot for the fella and he has some decent win equity to boot.
Nut Matchup If Avoid Weather
We are going to have to deal with some sketchy weather conditions out in Washington but they do have all day to get this game in. If in fact this game does play, this is essentially the nut matchup for Turner against a lefty pitcher that struggles with holding runners on base. Matz has had a strong second half of the season but that’s not preventing me from doing what I can to get Turner into my lineups across the industry.