DFS Alerts
Not Flashy
If you’re looking for flashy, look elsewhere. If you’re fine rostering a slightly better than league average pitcher in a great matchup, you’re in the right place. Hendricks numbers won’t jump off the page at you but his 20.5% strikeout rate is right around league average and his 3.98 SIERA indicates he’s been a solid pitcher this year and has been strong in terms of run prevention. Plate IQ has the White Sox projected lineup with a strikeout rate of 27% against RHP and you’re simply not going to find a better strikeout matchup out there on this slate.
Strong Team Context
While I do actually like some of the higher priced SS options on this slate, Andrus comes in severely underpriced (more so on DK, still good price tag on FD) for his team’s context. The Rangers will square off against southpaw Marco Gonzales in hitter friendly Globe Life Park and Andrus should be presented with plenty of run scoring + producing opportunities.
Something to Play For
The Cubs only own a 1.5 game lead in the NL Central over the Milwaukee Brewers and are one of the few teams that still have something obvious to play for. That means starters should get run for as long as this game remains close and guys like Anthony Rizzo and Daniel Murphy stand out as underpriced on DraftKings. Lucas Gioltio showed improvement, at least in terms of strikeouts, the second half of the season but is still one of the least talented pitchers on the slate. The Cubs own the highest implied run total of the slate (5.4) and you should grab exposure to a hitter or two (especially Rizzo) in your lineups.
Alternative SP1
If you’re fading JV’s high price tag, Rich Hill is the guy you’re slotting in as SP1 across the industry. Hill has been hit hard at times this year but has been able to post strong strikeout numbers (27.3 K%) all season long. The Padres projected lineup has a strikeout rate north of 21% versus LHP and Hill gets the added benefit of facing the opposing pitcher at the place. It’s a reasonable move to forego JV and pitch Hill in order to get some bigger bats into your lineup.
Monster Numbers
We’ll have to dodge storms once again on Saturday night but if we’re able to Arlington is again one of the top offensive environments of the evening. Nelson Cruz and the Mariners get a favorable park shift with this game being played in Texas and Cruz will also have the platoon advantage against Mike Minor. Cruz owns monster career numbers against southpaws (146 wRC+, .259 ISO) and has an affordable price tag across the industry despite his monster matchup.
Career Best
Verlander is the clear play at starting pitcher if you’re looking to spend at the position on Saturday night. JV is having a career year this season with career bests in the following categories: 2.73 SIERA, 34% strikeout rate, and 14.3 SwStr%. The matchup for Verlander is tougher than it seems – PlateIQ currently has the Angels projected lineup with a 24.5% strikeout rate against RHP. The bottom third of the order with Arcia, Cowart, and Ward is particularly bad and weakens the Angels lineup as a whole. JV is expensive so fading him to jam more bats into your lineup isn’t unreasonable, but he’s certainly the “safest” option of the night.
The Best Salary Saver on the Mound
Gonzales is my preferred cheap pitching choice tonight. The price tag is more than fair, and he got up to 84 pitches in his last outing. It should be all systems go for this one, and I don’t mind taking a LHP against Texas, even in Arlington. Gonzales has great command and a solid overall profile, and I think he’s one of the best point per dollar options on the slate.
Saturday's Top Arm
Verlander is your obvious ace on the evening slate, and we can be assured of him getting a full allotment of pitches, as Houston has not yet clinched the AL West. His ERA and SIERA are both well under 3.00 for the year, he doesn’t allow hard contact, and he has ridiculous command that includes a 34% strikeout rate and sub-5% walk rate. He has pitched against the Angels five times this year and has not allowed more than three runs in any of them with a 44/6 K/BB ratio in those outings. Fire him up with confidence as the top pitcher on the slate.
Still Reasonably Priced With Big Upside
This all depends on which Lucas Giolito shows up. Bad Lucas Giolito existed for pretty much the entire first half of the season. Reasonable Lucas Giolito showed up in late July and August, but now it seems like bad Giolito is back. The Cubs still have plenty to play for and get to add a designated hitter to their lineup, so there’s lots of potential here. They are a high end GPP stack, but I don’t know that you need to force TOO much exposure in cash games. If you want to pluck out one hitter for cash games, Daniel Murphy makes the most sense. He’s a good bet for five at bats as the leadoff hitter for a road team, and he’s still fairly priced at $3,000 on FD and $4,000 on DK after hitting a home run yesterday.
A Smash Spot for This Offense
The Dodgers still have everything to play for, which is a huge consideration when evaluating DFS options at this stage of the season. They also have a great matchup against Nix here, and it’s no surprise that they are -300 favorites in Vegas with a 5.5 run implied team total. Nix has ugly numbers over seven major league starts and a meager 12% strikeout rate, so this is just a terrible matchup for him. Fire up all your Dodgers that are strong against right-handed pitching. Joc Pederson and Max Muncy both have ISO marks above .285 and wOBA marks above .375 against righties for the year, and both check in as core plays for me this evening.
Other tagged players: Joc Pederson Affordable Leadoff Hitter On A Red-Hot Team
Since being recalled on September 9th, Nick Martini is batting 12-for-30 with nine runs and his first home run of the season. Martini should be batting leadoff once again against righty Chase De Jong, who is nothing special. De Jong has a 5.80 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in his major league career, and hasn’t shown the ability yet to consistently retire big league hitters. Meanwhile, the A’s offense is humming along and have reduced their magic number to just three games. Martini isn’t known for his power or speed, but his ability to get on in front of a stacked offense is plenty appealing.
Overlooked Power Bat With Platoon-Advantage
I don’t love the idea of trying to pick on Rich Hill, but Hunter Renfroe is going to hit in the middle of the Padres’ lineup, will hold the platoon-advantage and is relatively affordable. Renfroe is 4-for-15 with a home run in his career against Hill, and the powerful Renfroe is now up to 24 home runs for the season. We’ve traditionally labeled Renfroe a “lefty-masher”, but he’s shown nearly identical splits this season against lefties and righties, which makes me wonder if Renfroe has turned a huge corner in his age-26 season. Renfroe’s .806 OPS against righties is actually higher than his .796 OPS against lefties, so I’m not concerned about the potential right-handed relievers coming in after Hill is done for the night. I like Renfroe a lot in tournaments despite the tough matchup on paper.
Cheap Pitcher Looking To Get Back On Track
The box scores haven’t been great lately for Anthony DeSclafani. DeSclafani has failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in four consecutive games and hasn’t gone more than five innings in any of them. His ERA has now ballooned up to 4.92 and it’s fair to wonder if he’s just hit some kind of wall at the end of the season. The good news is that his velocity looked solid in his last outing and was above his season average in the mid-to-high 90s, so it doesn’t appear DeSclafani is hiding an injury. If you’re trying to fit in Verlander or any of the big bats today, it makes some sense to take some shots on DeSclafani in a prime matchup against a subpar Miami offense as a way to save some salary. Just know he hasn’t been sharp lately.
Jose Peraza scratched Friday; Blake Trahan replaces
Peraza has been scratched from the Reds original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday’s matchup against the Miami Marlins due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Blake Trahan, who will play shortstop and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Dilson Herrera all the way up to the two-hole from his original eighth spot in the lineup. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Reds order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against left-hander Wei-Yin Chen on the road this evening.
As reported by: Bobby Nightengale via Twitter Other tagged players: Blake Trahan
Increasing run line for lineup that hammers southpaws
The run line for the Dodgers has increased to 5.14, putting them second highest on the board currently and if weather should impact the game in Texas, they may end up one of just two teams even above five implied runs tonight. Eric Lauer has struggled with RHBs (.347 wOBA and xwOBA) and the Dodgers stack the lineup full of quality ones. Despite the extremely negative run environment, Justin Turner (180 wRC+, .221 ISO vs LHP this season) is the must play. Manny Machado (150 wRC+, .241 ISO), Matt Kemp (120 wRC+, .228 ISO) and David Freese (127 wRC+, .154 ISO) have all done strong work against southpaws as well.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Matt Kemp, David Freese, Eric Lauer