DFS Alerts
Two spots to watch in Friday evening's forecast
While looking slightly better than this morning, there are still two areas of concern in Friday’s evening update. Players can read the full forecast on the Weather page. Premium players can get further updates from Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Pitcher with declining peripherals may offer an edge
Possibly the result of injuries over the last couple of years, Madison Bumgarner is not what he was. A great park and 3.14 ERA do well to hide the decline, but his SIERA is 4.49 and his xwOBA is .331, which are not bad, but not better than average. St Louis is also a negative run environment, but they have a predominantly RH lineup and this is a spot where players can look for an edge if others will refuse to go against Bumgarner’s name value with the Cardinals implied for just 4.21 runs. While RHBs have just a .305 wOBA against him this year, xwOBA drives that up 47 points. That’s because both the hard hit and ground ball rates are 42%. Two batters, specifically look interesting tonight, right in the middle of this lineup. Both Marcell Ozuna (134 wRC+, .216 ISO vs LHP this season) and Jedd Gyorko (154 wRC+, .230 ISO) have done extremely well against southpaws this season. Both are hitting the ball well currently too. Only Paul DeJong (80 wRC+, .165 ISO) is above $4.2K on DraftKings among RHBs.
Other tagged players: Madison Bumgarner, Jedd Gyorko, Paul DeJong Top lineup driven by a bat almost always in play
If the Astros played in a positive or even neutral run environment, they’d probably have an implied run line close to six for many of their home games. They play in one of the most negative, yet still find themselves at 4.6, which could end up a top six mark should the cross state affair run into weather issues, and are facing a pretty competent pitcher Andrew Heaney. It’s just unfortunate for Heaney that he happens to be left-handed. Although he hasn’t been terrible against LHPs (.322 wOBA), they do have a 40 Hard% and 37.9 GB% against him. The Astros have some overall great numbers against LHP, but it’s really a more stars and scrubs approach considering this year’s statistics. Alex Bregman (166 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP) is now the bat that drives this lineup. Tyler White (181 wRC+. .309 ISO) is expanding his sample size ever day, but does have just a 71 wRC+ over the last week (26.7 Hard%). George Springer (131 wRC+, .191 ISO) is next best by both wRC+ and ISO. Jose Altuve (116 wRC+, .122 ISO) has remained productive, but not nearly the caliber of player he was last year.
Other tagged players: Andrew Heaney, Tyler White, George Springer, Jose Altuve One major issue looming over one of tonight's top projected offenses
The Mariners (5.48) are one of just three teams above five implied runs in Texas (the Rangers are another). The Rangers intend to send out the bullpen against the Mariners tonight, which would make this a tremendous spot, except for one thing. Kevin’s forecast has some red in it. Should this game not go off, it leaves the Yankees in an incredibly commanding spot, at least a full run above any other team on the slate. Should players attempt to roster Seattle bats anyway, Mitch Haniger (137 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP this season), Nelson Cruz (139 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Robinson Cano (132 wRC+, .182 ISO) may be the only bats worth some risk.
Other tagged players: Mitch Haniger, Robinson Cano Always room for LH power bats against this pitcher
Julio Teheran has been pitching well lately and has much less pressure on him than the Phillies with his team way ahead in the standings, but there’s always room to roster quality LHBs (.325 wOBA, .366 xwOBA) against him. With complete disregard towards defense once again, the Phillies will line up six from that side of the plate. Every single batter in the lineup has at least a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this season with leadoff man Cesar Hernandez (100 wRC+, .122 ISO) the low man by both that mark and ISO. Asdrubal Cabrera (125 wRC+, .233 ISO), Carlos Santana (107 wRC+, .179 ISO) and Justin Bour (127 wRC+, .228 ISO) may provide some firepower from the left side of the plate, while Rhys Hoskins (141 wRC+, .288 ISO) does have three doubles in 13 career PAs against Teheran.
Other tagged players: Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Justin Bour, Julio Teheran, Rhys Hoskins Cheap top of the order bats for a well projected offense
The Tigers are sitting at 4.58 implied runs, which a mark that reaches the top third of the ball tonight because batters from either side of the plate are above a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against Ian Kennedy, an extreme fly ball pitcher. The Tigers have just one legitimate bat in Nick Castellanos (116 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP this season), but Christin Stewart (145 wRC+, .212 ISO) has done some damage in a small sample and both he and leadoff man Jacoby Jones (76 wRC+, .172 ISO) are extremely cheap, perhaps affording the opportunity to pay up for pitching tonight.
Other tagged players: Nick Castellanos, JaCoby Jones, Ian Kennedy Pitcher with some upside also struggles with control
Sean Reid-Foley has made five starts, totaling 26 innings. He’s struck out 10 in two of the last three, but has just one more strikeout (12) than walks (11) over the other three. He has been above a 27 K% in both AA and AAA this season, but batters from either side of the plate have had some success against him with Statcast (RHBs .369 xwOBA) and his actual wOBA (LHBs .381) disagreeing about which side that is. Oddsmakers believe at least one side will prevail against him, installing the Rays with a 4.74 implied run line that’s sixth highest on the board. Four of the first five batters in the order are above a 110 wRC+ vs RHP this season with only Tommy Pham (114 wRC+, .179 ISO) above $4.5K on DK. Ji-Man Choi (143 wRC+, .259 ISO) is the power bat here. Joey Wendle (117 wRC+, .136 ISO) has a lineup high 261 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Joey Wendle, Tommy Pham, Sean Reid-Foley Missing bats makes exposure to top lineup more affordable
After conceding the division to the Red Sox last night, the Yankees appear to have let up in their posted lineup against Baltimore tonight. Although some regulars will rest, this is still an extremely potent lineup against a rookie who has struggled against LHBs this season (.363 wOBA, 27.9 GB%) in a dangerous park. The lone positive is that Yefry Ramirez has held batters from either side of the plate below a 30 Hard%, but the ball doesn’t have to be hit incredibly hard to do damage at Yankee Stadium and Ramirez will be backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball. The Yankees may have done DFS players a favor by making exposure to the top projected lineup tonight (5.95 implied runs) by nearly one-half run a bit more affordable. Aaron Judge (150 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP this season) and Didi Gregorius (128 wRC+, .254 ISO) can be supplemented by more affordable bats in Aaron Hicks (127 wRC+, .185 ISO), Andrew McCutchen (115 wRC+, .158 ISO) and Luke Voit (168 wRC+, .303 ISO) surrounding them.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Yefry Ramirez, Aaron Hicks, Andrew McCutchen Statcast confirms struggles vs LHBs
While Nick Pivetta has an ERA well above his estimators and his Statcast numbers even agree, we also have to recognize and accept several things. The strikeout rate and SIERA have been worse over the last month. LHBs have a .340 wOBA against him that is supported by xwOBA (.342). The Braves have the fifth highest implied run line on this slate (4.8). Pivetta is a viable starting option at his current price in GPPs because there is some upside there. However, a hedge/exposure towards the top half of the Atlanta lineup is certainly acceptable as well. This group includes Ronald Acuna (140 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP this season), Ender Inciarte (98 wRC+, .132 ISO), Freddie Freeman (135 wRC+, .185 ISO) and Nick Markakis (121 wRC+, .152 ISO). The three above a .150 ISO also are all above a 40 Hard% too against RHP this year.
Other tagged players: Nick Markakis, Ronald Acuna, Ender Inciarte, Nick Pivetta Daily Bullpen Alert: Five pens above a five FIP and below a 10 K-BB% last 30 days
Six bullpens exceed a five FIP over the last month, five of them below a 10 K-BB% as well, all in action on Friday night. The Marlins (5.58 FIP, 9.1 K-BB%) are at home against the Red (59 wRC+ last seven days) and send Wei-Yin Chen to the mound (.266 xwOBA at home this year). The Orioles (5.41 FIP, 9.6 K-BB%) send Yefry Ramirez to Yankee Stadium tonight. The Twins (5.24 FIP, 9.8 K-BB%) have Jose Berrios on the mound in Oakland. The Cardinals (5.08 FIP, 6.5 K-BB%) are starting Jon Gant (5.1 IP per start), but at home against the Giants. The Nationals (5.02 FIP, 11.9 K-BB%) are at home behind Joe Ross in his second start against the Mets. The Royals (5.02 FIP, 5.6 K-BB%) start HR prone Ian Kennedy in Detroit. It doesn’t look like there are a lot of ideal spots among that group, due to starting pitcher, park or opposition. The Yankee bats would be the obvious exception. One more situation to mention is the Rangers (4.98 FIP, 10.7 K-BB%), who are going with a bullpen day at home against the Mariners.
I'm Calling it Now -- Two Home Runs for this Outfielder
The Yankees have the highest implied run total on the board tonight, which is impressive considering the fact that there are two hittable pitchers squaring off in Texas. The Yankees draw an exploitable matchup against Yefry Ramirez, who has a high walk rate and a high fly-ball rate. If they can get to him early, they will feast on a very hittable Orioles’ bullpen. A full stack is viable in tournaments, while Andrew McCutchen, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, and Gary Sanchez all stand out as elite plays at their respective positions. Stanton always sees a boost when facing a fly-ball pitcher and he’s coming off of the big game last night where he hit the go-ahead grand slam.
High Floor and Ceiling at First Base
The Braves have a similar matchup to the Phillies, as we want to target left-handed hitters against Nick Pivetta. On the season, he has allowed a .342 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate. Freddie Freeman is really the only hitter from the Braves that I feel good about rostering in a 14-game slate. He boasts a .409 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Finally Finding Form
We’ve been waiting for Castillo to flash his 2017 form all season. Now that he finally has, we should be chomping at the bit to play him at this price point. Over his last three starts, he has a 3.51 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a ground ball rate of 54%. He sees a favorable ballpark shift playing in Miami and he draws an excellent matchup against the Marlins, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .283 with a strikeout rate of 24% against right-handed pitching.
Sneaky Upside with a Good Chance at a Win
Sabathia is never a sexy play in DFS, but he’s one of the top point-per-dollar targets on the board tonight. His numbers as a whole are solid — 4.26 SIERA with a 21% strikeout rate and a 24% soft contact rate. He’s listed as a massive -320 favorite against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .292 with a strikeout rate of 26% against left-handed pitching. He’s been dominant in this matchup in the past, he offers a high floor/ceiling combination, and he’s cheap across the industry.
So many questions among tonight's starting pitchers
There aren’t a lot of poor pitchers on Friday night’s slate. Not a lot of pitchers that players should very obviously want to attack, but there also aren’t many pitchers below the highest priced guys that players should be in a huge hurry to roster. At a very marginal price tag around $7K, Nick Pivetta continues to post very strong peripherals (27.8 K%, 3.03 SIERA, .302 xwOBA) without the results. While both the strikeout rate (21.5%) and SIERA (4.49) have greatly suffered over the last month, his xwOBA (.291) has actually decreased. He’s also facing contact prone offense (20.4 K% vs RHP) in Atlanta that’s looking to put the Phillies away. He also may not get much defensive support and is likely to have a short leash with 16 relievers in the bullpen in an extremely meaningful game for the Phils. Andrew Heaney (23.4 K%, 3.78 SIERA, .325 xwOBA) is a quality pitcher in a great park for just $7.9K on DraftKings, but facing a very dangerous lineup (Houston 122 wRC+, 20.1 K% vs LHP). Zack Greinke (23.8 K%, 3.59 SIERA, .319 xwOBA) is less than $10K at home against the Rockies (78 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP). He has just a 16.1 K% over the last month though. Luis Castillo (23.6 K%, 3.84 SIERA, .339 xwOBA) has allowed one run or less in three of four starts and is in Miami (83 wRC at home, 85 wRC+ vs RHP) for less than $9K. Rich Hill (27.3 K%, 3.66 SIERA, .326 xwOBA) hosts the Padres (89 wRC+, 15.8 K-BB% vs LHP). He combines a 5.00 ERA with a 34.2 K% over the last month (20.8 HR/FB) and has only exceeded 90 pitches once over his last five starts.
Other tagged players: Zack Greinke, Luis Castillo, Andrew Heaney, Rich Hill