DFS Alerts
Start of Wednesday's MIA-NYM Game 1 will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Miami Marlins and New York Mets on Wednesday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Mets have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Zack Wheeler not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, this game appears on track to be played following the initial weather stoppage with models indicating rain will begin to taper off into the evening hours.
As reported by: the New York Mets via Twitter
Underweight on the Rockies with One Exception
The Rockies are a team that’s hard to figure out tonight. They have been red-hot at the plate and they always seem to hit the ball well at home, but they draw one of the toughest matchups of the slate. Patrick Corbin has an elite strikeout rate (31%) and he has held righties to a .281 xwOBA this season. Outside of DJ LeMahieu (16-for-43 with four home runs), the Rockies have not hit Corbin well in the past.
Right Back to the Oakland Stack
The A’s see a significant ballpark boost playing in Baltimore and they draw one of the top matchups on the board. Andrew Cashner has a minuscule strikeout rate and has allowed a .371 xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. I was on this offense last night and I will be going right back to the well. Each of the first six batters in this projected lineup has an xwOBA of at least .350 and an ISO of at least .220 — Ramon Laureano, Matt Chapman, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Olson, and Stephen Piscotty. There is massive upside with this offense, so a full stack is firmly in play.
Advanced Numbers are Still Elite
Severino may have a 6.28 ERA over his last three starts, but I’ll chalk that up to bad luck more than anything. In those three outings, he posted a 2.65 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 33% and a walk rate of 5%. Those numbers are actually better than his season averages. I am more than willing to play Severino at a huge discount, even in a fairly tough matchup on the road. I’m banking on his talent and on his string of bad luck to end. He should see plenty of run support with Jake Odorizzi pitching opposite him.
Great Numbers in this Matchup
Price has really surpassed expectations this season. I thought he was on the tail end of his career, but he’s bounced back in a big way. In 27 starts, he owns a 3.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a walk rate of 7%. He has an excellent track record against this Blue Jays’ roster, holding them to a .290 wOBA with 36 strikeouts in 141 plate appearances. He should see plenty of run support and there’s a good chance that he comes in at lower ownership than both Strasburg and Severino.
Cheap Lead Off Hitter
It’s a small sample size, but Ramon Laureano has crushed low pitches and he’s hit sinkers really well. Andrew Cashner tries to work down in the zone, and he tends to throw this 2-seam sinker around 50% of the time. Cashner has a .371 wOBA with a .181 ISO against right-handed hitters this season. Oakland is the top stack on the slate for me, and it starts right at the top. Laureano has a .306 ISO with a .392 wOBA against right-handed pitching since being called up. He has 68 PAs against righties so it’s a small sample size, but he’s looked really good and he’s still not priced up on FanDuel.
Great Numbers Against Lefties
I really like the right-handed power bats for the White Sox tonight, and they’re a little underpriced on FanDuel. Avisail Garcia is $2,500 on FanDuel tonight, and he should hit fourth against the left-handed pitcher. He has a .227 ISO with a .503 CXwOBA against left-handed pitching this season. He’s always been very good against left-handed pitching, and injuries have really hurt him this season. Skoglund has a .362 wOBA with a .214 ISO and a 45.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters.
It's Ugly Down Here
Writing up value pitchers is tough today because we don’t have a lot of good options. The only cheap guy I’m willing to play tonight is Felix Pena, and I don’t even feel good about that. Pena has a 4.09 xFIP with a 22.8% strikeout rate, but he has a 38.7% hard-hit rate. Over the last 30 days, his strikeout rate is up 2.6% and he’s working ahead in counts 52.8% of the time, which is a 6.2% bump for him. His average exit velocity and hit distance are both down as well. There’s a lot of risk when looking at the power in the Texas lineup, but they’re a much better team at home and I don’t mind targeting them on the road.
Something Dirt Cheap
This is a slate where I am prioritizing pitching. As such, we are going to need some cheap bats, and the bottom of the Angels order against Yovani Gallardo is the place to get that done. I wish Fernandez played a different position, but it is what it is, and even at first base, this value is tough to pass up. In 91 games at Triple-A, Fernandez struck out just 8.6% of the tims, leading to a .333 average with a .396 OBP. So far in 23 major league games, he has managed a 37% hard hit rate and .293 average. Against the low strikeouts of Gallardo, he should be expected to get the ball in play multiple times tonight.
Savings In The Middle
There is a ton of high end offense to spend on in the outfield and at the corner infield positions tonight. You can make a case for Trevor Story, Didi Gregorius and Javier Baez tonight, but shortstop looks like a good spot to save some salary, with Tim Anderson leading off against Eric Skoglund. Skoglund is a well below average pitcher with a 17.1% K rate and 42% hard contact allowed to righties so far in his career. Combine that with a bad bullpen and the White Sox are an interesting target in all formats tonight. Anderson is nothing amazing, but he does have both power and speed (18 HR, 26 SB) and with the low K’s of Skoglund, his 75% contact rate is more than enough to get him on base here with plenty of power bats ready to hit him in.
Catch The Power
The Yankees setup as the best spot to hunt for power tonight, with seven batters above a .175 ISO against righties and facing a fly ball pitcher with a history of right-handed power issues. Sanchez is the standout play at the catcher position on DK with his .219 ISO and looking healthy since coming off the DL, with two home runs in his last five games.
Back To The Well
The Red Sox were a big letdown last night, but that is no reason to avoid them back at home against a pitcher in Aaron Sanchez who has just not looked like his old self this season. Even when he was good, there was a drop off in skills to lefties and in 212 PA this season, he has just a 15.1% K rate with 15.6% BB and 35% hard contact to allowed to lefties with just moderate 49% ground balls. Moreland is the best way to get access to this offense at a fair price. He has the patience to get on base with his 10.6% walk rate, the fly balls at 40% to offset the ground balls, plenty pf power with a .218 ISO, and he should see plenty of runners on base ahead of him tonight.
You Know What In The Outfield
Angels In The Outfield! The Angels face the worst pitcher on this slate with a 13.6% K, 11.5% BB, 6.22 ERA and 5.60 SIERA of Yovani Gallardo. Mike Trout is the prime play here and perhaps the top play on the slate, but he’s priced accordingly. On DK/FDRFT, Justin Upton and Kole Calhoun are fairly priced and the easiest ways to get access to the top of this lineup. I’ll side with Calhoun, as Upton has been scuffling with a 22% hard hit rate and 31% K over the past month, while Calhoun has surged to 56% hard hits, with still high 26% K, but also 13% walks giving him on base upside as well as power against the poor control of Gallardo.
An Even Trio, Pick One
After Nola up top, we have a trio of David Price, Stephen Strasburg and Luis Severino all at similar price tags. Over the long run, Severino would be my top choice, but I have concerns with a drop in velocity in his drubbing last week. Strasburg also looks less than full strength with decreased strikeouts and velocity since coming back from the DL. They may both be fine, and I have qualms with using them, but I feel a little better about the way David Price has looked recently, with a 30% K rate and just 4.3% walks over the past month. None of the three have ideal matchups, but it gets even dicier in the low tier tonight, so I’d rather slightly overpay for a less than perfect matchup with Price tonight.
The Best In Real Life, The Best For Us
Over the course of the season, Aaron Nola has fallen more into the ‘better in real life’ category, but he’s plenty good as a DFS pitcher, and has seen a recent strikeout surge that puts him right up there with anyone. Overall, he relies more on soft contact, control and ground balls than on strikeouts, but he’s still got a more than acceptable 26.6% K rate for the season that is all the way up to 35.9% over the past month. It’s not a great matchup, and I don’t completely buy the strikeout surge, but there are question marks with the group of pitchers below him that are enough to make him stand out as the best option on this slate.