DFS Alerts
He's Just Cheap
Max Kepler is a pretty wonky name to have as a Core Play, but this is simply about the salary on a slate where I want to prioritize pitching and spending up for a couple top bats. Kansas City’s Heath Fillmyer has just a 14.9% K rate to lefties while walking an obscene 14.2%. His only moderate skill is 51% ground balls, but Kepler takes care of that with his 47% fly ball rate and 37% hard hits. His low 14.4% K rate and 11.8% BB gives him very cheap on base upside with enough power to leave him with some realistic upside hitting in the middle of the lineup for one of the highest projected scoring teams on this slate.
Two Fine One-Off Plays
Jon Lester is nowhere near the pitcher he once was, but yet DFS players do not pick on him that much. That will give us leverage with low ownership on the Washington bats, especially on a full Friday slate. I won’t likely full stack here, but there are two hitters that stand out. Anthony Rendon is the more obvious play with his strong career splits against LHP, and this is one of the few matchups where I would like to take Trea Turner. He is massively over-rated in general, but he loves to run, and that’s great news against Lester, who is notorious for his problems holding runners. Both Rendon and Turner are elite plays this evening, especially in GPP formats.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rendon
The Top Shelf Caviar
While I don’t generally love stacking against Marco Estrada in tournaments, the Indians are one of the few teams that I could see stacking up against him. Estrada has long been known as a massive fly ball pitcher who can have long ball problems, and the Indians are the type of team that can make him pay. Ramirez, Lindor, and Encarnacion all have ISO marks over .250 against RHP this year, and that’s extreme power for you. Those three headline my Cleveland list tonight, with Brantley also checking into the mix as part of any stack.
Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley A Top Stack Despite an Underwhelming Park
I don’t often love stacking offenses in Oakland’s spacious ballpark, but not even a ballpark is capable of saving Yovani Gallardo at this point. His ERA, xFIP, and SIERA are all well over 5.00, his walk rate is over 10%, his strikeouts are in the tank, and there’s just not much to say that’s good here. He has also shown some reverse splits tendencies, allowing a wOBA near .400 to RHBs this year. It’s a good fit for Oakland, as they have some righties that are capable of doing damage even against RHP. Davis and Chapman climb to the top of the power list here and are great plays in all formats, while you can sprinkle in the likes of Lowrie and Olson into your full GPP stacks. If Ramon Laureano grabs the top spot in the lineup, which has been a revolving door for Oakland all year, he is a nice source of value, too.
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Jed Lowrie, Ramon Laureano His Final Chance!
Even though he will be popular, Archer is your most logical cheap arm tonight in all formats. His salary is as depressed as we have ever seen it, and he draws a great matchup for run prevention against the Marlins. While this isn’t the best matchup for strikeouts, Archer did have a double figure strikeout game against this team earlier in the year, and his stuff naturally leads to swinging strikes. He just needs to watch his command and throw strikes, which he should be able to do in this matchup. Given the cheap price point, I’ll (nervously) eat the chalk here and hope that good Archer shows up for once.
Being Contrarian on the Mound
Your popular DFS lineup builds tonight are likely going to include Snell and Archer as popular pitchers, as they grab supreme matchups against the Orioles and Marlins, respectively. While I like them as options and have tagged them as such, if you are looking to go for lower-owned plays with upside, give a guy like Nola a look as a pivot from Snell. The results weren’t that great in his most recent start, but he still struck out 11 batters, and he has been largely consistent all year long. His SIERA and xFIP sit in the low threes, while he does a great job of limiting hard contact. The Mets are certainly not an imposing lineup, and Nola might get largely ignored on a slate that includes a lot of elite arms. Don’t sleep on him in this spot!
Power Hunting
With good pitching in places like Coors Field and Fenway Park, the Indians are jumping to the top of the board for offense tonight. At his best, Marco Estrada is a guy to pick out individual home run hitters against and at his worst, which is where he’s been recently, he is someone to stack against. The prime plays here are Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor, but we can save a little money with the Cleveland first basemen tonight. Yonder Alonso is another strong option, but Edwin Encarnacion is the Indians batter to take advantage of the reverse splits power of Estrada. Encarnacion has a 41% hard hit rate and .256 ISO against righties and should have all kinds of RBI opportunities with Lindor, Brantley and Ramirez ahead of him.
Skills Say He's Still OK
The results simply haven’t been there for Archer this season, and we need to stop waiting for him to be the pitcher that he was the past couple seasons. However, at this salary and in this matchup, we don’t need him to be that pitcher. We just need the pretty good pitcher that his peripherals say he is. Both his 24.2% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate are better than average and he’s been even a little better against righties with a 26% K rate. This Marlins team has no left-handed power to be worried about and just a .138 ISO and .307 wOBA from the projected lineup. There’s even the potential that his shift to pitching out of the stretch will bring more improvement, as we saw in his last start. He’s on my board in all formats at this price.
Discounted Ace
Among the top pitchers tonight, Paxton is the one with the noticeable discount. He is not without risk, as he is just one start back off the DL, but he certainly looked OK in that first start, throwing 98 pitches and striking out 10 Oakland batters in five innings with a huge 20% swinging strike rate. Paxton is a matchup proof pitcher, especially at home, and the Yankees power does not outweigh his strikeout ability. It’s really just a matter of whether or not you trust his health and pitch count. For that reason, he is probably better saved for tournaments, but I see him as having the highest points per dollar upside on this slate.
Ace of Aces
This is a loaded pitching slate, with at least seven pitchers, maybe more that could be called top of the line aces. But between his current form and the matchup, Blake Snell jumps to the top of the list tonight. Since the All-Star Break, Snell’s 36.4% K rate is the highest of any pitcher on this slate, and he has combined that with a low 5.9% walk rate. Since his DL stint, he has not allowed more than one run in any of his last six starts and has a 8+ strikeouts in three straight starts, which include matchups against the Red Sox and Indians. Now he gets the Orioles at home, with an active roster that ranks 29th in ISO, dead last in wOBA and with the 3rd highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. He is deserving of being the most expensive pitcher and is my first choice in all formats on all sites.
Value in the Outfield
Even though this game has a low total, the Pirates are large favorites and actually have a fairly high implied run total. They draw an exploitable matchup against Dan Straily, who has allowed a .360+ xwOBA and a 45%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters this season. There are better offenses as a whole in this slate, but I really like the three-man stack of Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli, and Corey Dickerson on DraftKings. It’s an affordable stack and all three mash right-handed pitching.
Revenge Against his Former Team
The Indians are one of the top stacks of the slate. They are facing a low-strikeout, high fly-ball pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. They are also playing on the road, which guarantees ninth inning at bats. On the season, Estrada has allowed a .324 xwOBA to lefties and a .383 xwOBA to righties. He’s allowed significantly more home runs to righties, so we could see the parrot make an appearance on the arm of Edwin Encarnacion as he rounds the bases. He currently boasts a .267 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Time for a Breakout Performance
Archer hasn’t been able to get anything going this season. His advanced statistics are still solid — 3.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%, but he’s yet to have that dominant outing that he’s shown so often in the past. This is arguably his best matchup in months, as he gets to square off against the Marlins at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The Marlins’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .315 with a strikeout rate of 22% against right-handed pitching.
Top Pitcher on Friday Night
Snell is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but rightly so. He has turned into an ace this season, posting a 3.46 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. He’s always had the talent and he’s finally been able to put it all together. He arguably has the best matchup of any pitcher taking the mound tonight. The Orioles’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .278 with a strikeout rate of 27% against left-handed pitching.
Improved contact management with a heavy workload
The Braves have the lowest implied run line on the slate (3.49) by decent margin tonight. Zack Greinke has the second highest strikeout total on the board (24.9%), but the Braves have just a 20.5 K% vs RHP. Greinke has improved on his hard contact issues (87.8 mph aEV) to where he’s now around league average with a .320 xwOBA. The Braves have just an 11.3 HR/FB against RHP. Greinke may not have the upside we seek with a high price tag, but he’s in a decent run prevention spot and has gone at least six innings in six straight starts and has recorded a seventh inning out in at least 10 of those games. Batters from either side of the plate are below a .300 wOBA against him, though xwOBA raises either side to within four points of .320. Ronald Acuna (145 wRC+, .289 ISO) and Freddie Freeman (131 wRC+, .176 ISO) are the top bats here, the latter costing a very reasonable $4.2K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman