DFS Alerts

One major concern on a four game slate

It’s just a four game slate tonight, but there’s major concern for one game currently. The updated forecast is available on the Weather page. Premium players can join Kevin on Crunch Time at 6PM ET tonight with the earlier start time for further updates.

Anibal Sanchez has had an unexpectedly pleasant season for the Braves with a 24 K% and a 2.98 ERA that’s nearly a run below his 3.89 SIERA, but justified by his board topping .293 xwOBA this season. He has an 84.4 mph aEV that’s lowest on the board with only 26.7% of batted balls exceeding a 95 mile per hour exit velocity. After struggling a bit with a hamstring issue in August, he bounced back with 5.1 innings of one run ball and six strikeouts against the Pirates in his most recent effort. At the very least, he’s a strong SP2 option on DraftKings for less than $8K. Batters from either side of the plate are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season and Arizona is no longer a positive run environment. That said, the first four in their lineup are so strong against RHP, that they need to be considered on a small slate anyway. That group includes A.J. Pollock (116 wRC+, .211 ISO), Eduardo Escobar (126 wRC+, .266 ISO), Paul Goldschmidt (136 wRC+, .236 ISO) and David Peralta (148 wRC+, .256 ISO).

Has to be considered on a three or four game slate

On a full slate or even a half one, players are probably bypassing Kyle Hendricks at Washington. On a three or four game slate, especially on a two pitcher site, both sides probably need to be considered. Hendricks has a 19.9 K% that’s close enough to average. His forte has generally been strong contact management with an elite defense behind him, but he’s not very far below his estimators this year, despite an 85 mph aEV. He’s gone at least six innings in five straight starts, allowing more than two runs in just one of those. He’s probably too pricey at $9K on FanDuel, but reasonably priced at $7.7K on DraftKings. The Nationals may be the toughest matchup on the board (10.6 K-BB% vs RHP and a 6.4 K-BB% last seven days). Hendricks has had virtually no platoon split with batters from either side equally four points from a .305 wOBA. Washington bats are costly as well. It’s difficult to find a good value, but perhaps Anthony Rendon (124 wRC+, .196 ISO) and Bryce Harper (141 wRC+, .274 ISO) can be useful here.

High upside pitcher with an increase in strikeouts recently

If playing on the FanDuel four game slate tonight, the Padres have the second lowest implied run line on the board (3.77). Luis Castillo is right in the middle of the board at $8.2K and has had his issues this year (24 HRs allowed). However, his strikeout rate is finally reaching it’s potential over the last month at 31.9% with a 14.1 SwStr%. For the season, he has a 13.9 SwStr% with just a 23.4 K%. The increased strikeout rate has his monthly xwOBA at .301, as opposed to the .339 season rate that comes with his board high 9.1% Barrels/BBE and 40.3% 95+ mph EV. Of course, the Padres offer tons of upside (79 wRC+, 18.2 K-BB%, 11.6 HR/FB vs RHP). Travis Jankowski (94 wRC+, .081 ISO vs RHP) is the value bat in the leadoff spot for just $2.2K here. LHBs have a .381 wOBA, 43.6 Hard% and 39.8 GB% against Castillo this year. None of the San Diego LHBs in tonight’s lineup have an ISO above .150 vs RHP this year, while Castillo has held RHBs to a .267 wOBA.

Results have improved even if velocity has not

Stephen Strasburg has shown further improvement in each of his starts back from the DL with his last outing against the Brewers being his best of the three (6 IP – 2 ER – 2 BB – 7 K). While encouraging, the bad news is that his velocity is still down from his pre-DL outings, but up a bit from his first start back. He was able to generate a 14+ SwStr% in each of his last two starts though. He’s the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($9.6K), while costing a reasonable $8.6K on DraftKings, where he has to be considered when forced to chose two of the six pitching choices. The Cubs are not an ideal matchup for him however. They have a 104 wRC+ and 12.2 K-BB% vs RHP, which includes a 9.2 BB% against them (actually only third best among the six teams on the DK slate). Of course, the small slate, state of the Washington bullpen and Strasburg’s league average wOBA within three points of .310 against batters from either side dictates some attention should be paid to Chicago batters as well in this matchup. Each of the first four batters in the lineup are above a 130 wRC+ vs RHP this season. Javier Baez (132 wRC+, .276 ISO) and Anthony Rizzo (143 wRC+, .228 ISO) have the most power and are the most expensive. Daniel Murphy (136 wRC+, .203 ISO) costs much less on DraftKings. Ben Zobrist (137 wRC+, .178 ISO) costs much less on both sites.

Absence of key bat enhances this pitcher's case

Shane Bieber may be the top pitching value on the board tonight. He costs less than $9K in Toronto and has a 19.9 K-BB%. Now, he has allowed at least four runs in eight of 15 starts and three runs twice more, but more than that only once. The peripherals are the more important thing from a daily fantasy perspective. The majority of his problem stems from a massive platoon split with LHBs hammering him at an unfathomable .398 wOBA pace with a 51.9 Hard% and 32.8 GB%. Justin Smoak’s absence from the lineup tonight enhances the case for Bieber. Your left-handed options for Toronto are Kendrys Morales (143 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP), Rowdy Tellez (1 major league PA) and Billy McKinney (188 wRC+, .283 ISO in 55 PAs vs RHP). Use those players against Bieber, though two of them are first basemen, but strongly consider Bieber as well.

Obvious, but expensive

The Indians are the top lineup on the board at 4.97 implied runs with nobody on the three game DraftKings slate within one half run. They are expensive against Sam Gaviglio in Toronto however. Batters with the platoon advantage (LHBs) have a significant edge against him (.356 wOBA, 38.8 Hard%, 43.5 GB%). As usual, even with the park downgrade, Jose Ramirez (171 wRC+, .341 ISO vs RHP) and Francisco Lindor (122 wRC+, .246 ISO) are top bats at their position. The interesting player is Jason Kipnis (89 wRC+, .153 ISO) in teh second spot tonight, but he still costs $4.5K on DraftKings. Yonder Alonso (108 wRC+, .204 ISO) is a bit cheaper than Edwin Encarnacion (114 wRC+, .260 ISO) and might be the better value considering Gaviglio’s platoon splits (RHBs .311 xwOBA, 30.5 Hard%, 52.4 GB%).

Rare park downgrade for struggling rookie

For those playing on FanDuel tonight, the Reds (with the 6:40 start) have the second highest implied run line among tonight’s eight teams (4.73). Southpaw Eric Lauer has struggled against everyone in his rookie year (LH & RHBs both above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA), though he has kept same handed batters on the ground 50% of the time (15.4 points higher than RHBs). He suffers a significant park downgrade tonight in Cincinnati, especially if he’s going to keep the ball in the air against RHBs. He’s actually been pretty fortunate in his assignments with Arizona, Washington, and Colorado the only parks he’s pitched in this season that wouldn’t be considered extremely pitcher friendly and that first one is up in the air too since the humidor. The Reds have four batters in the lineup above a 120 wRC+ vs LHP this season and Joey Votto (93 wRC+, .090 ISO) is not one of them. Eugenio Suarez (194 wRC+, .322 ISO, 56.7 Hard%) is the big bat here. Scott Schebler (142 wRC+, .156 ISO) is the only additional Red above $3K on FanDuel tonight.

Daily Bullpen Alert: Two of the three worst pens by FIP still available on a four game slate

Despite just four games on the slate tonight (three on the main DraftKings slate), two of the three worst bullpens by FIP over the last month are in action. The Nationals (6.17 FIP, 11.8 K-BB%) may have the best starter on the board though (Stephen Strasburg), if healthy. The Cubs could run up his pitch count to get to that bullpen. They are a very patient offense. The Reds (5.04 FIP, 11.6 K-BB%) have a 6:40 ET start time and are only available on the FanDuel main slate tonight. They are at home, but send Luis Castillo against the Padres, not really an enticing spot for daily fantasy bats outside the park and bullpen.

The Value Is Usable On This Slate

Cleveland is the top offense on the slate tonight, and like everyone, I’m expecting them to score some runs tonight. Sam Gaviglio has a .357 wOBA and a .194 ISO with a 14.9% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters this season. Greg Allen is used more for his defense, but I’m willing to take a shot on this slate because of his value. He’s a cheaper option on the highest implied team total, and with him hitting ninth, I don’t expect him to have a lot of ownership. Allen is always a threat to steal a base as well.

Crack at Revenge

The Cubs draw a difficult matchup against Stephen Strasburg and they are facing him on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Even in a three-game slate (or four depending on the site), nobody will target this offense. If Strasburg is going to be highly owned and we are looking for some leverage on the field, why not play a Cubs’ batter or two? Daniel Murphy gets a chance at revenge against his former team and he seems to be heating up right in time for the playoffs.

Load up on the Bats from Cleveland

The Indians are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and they draw a favorable matchup against Sam Gaviglio. While he has been tough on right-handed hitters, he has allowed a .372 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to lefties. Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, and Yonder Alonso are all elite plays at their respective positions, as they all bat from the left side and all boast a .375+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Top Pitcher on the DK Slate

Greinke is my favorite pitcher on the DraftKings slate (that honor belongs to Luis Castillo on the other two sites). He has been tremendous all season, posting a 3.46 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 5%. He gives up a lot of hard contact, but that’s not a big issue in this ballpark when the roof is closed (which it will be tonight). The Braves are known as a high-contact offense, but their projected lineup has an average k-rate of 22% against right-handed pitching. Greinke is listed as a large favorite and if we get some run support, it will make the Anibal Sanchez fade pay off in more ways than one.

Good In A Small Sample Size

Since being called up, Phillip Ervin has been very solid against left-handed pitching. It’s a smaller sample size, but when looking at a four-game slate, I’m willing to take a shot on a value bat with a small sample size. He has a .195 ISO with a .362 wOBA in 47 PAs against lefties this season. Lauer has been hit or miss this season, but he has a .359 wOBA with a 20.7% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. He has a 40.4% hard-hit rate against righties this season as well.

Take Advantage On These Sites

If you’re playing on FanDuel or FantasyDraft tonight, you get to take advantage of using Luis Castillo on the mound. He faces a Padres offense that has a projected starting lineup with a .159 ISO and a .297 wOBA. They don’t have a ton of power in this lineup and they strike out at a high clip. Castillo has dominated right-handed hitters this season. He has a .267 wOBA with a .140 ISO and a 24.2% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. With six projected righties in this lineup, we should see a quality start from Castillo tonight.