DFS Alerts
Liam Hendriks will open for the Athletics on Friday; Chris Bassitt will follow
The Oakland Athletics have become the latest in a long line of MLB clubs to occasionally utilize an opening bullpen arm and will now force Chris Bassitt to come on in relief Friday evening to work a majority of the team’s innings, opposed to making his originally scheduled start. He’ll be replaced on the mound at the outset by Liam Hendriks, who, like Bassitt, is a right-handed pitcher, so his presence on the bump shouldn’t alter the projections of the Texas Rangers hitters in any significant fashion, if at all. That said, still be sure to double check out the Starting Lineups page and projections in LinuepHQ for any notable changes prior to submitting lineups for tonight’s main slate.
As reported by: Gerry Fraley via Twitter Other tagged players: Chris Bassitt
Potent middle of the order against inconsistent pitcher
While Jon Lester has a reasonable .314 wOBA against RHBs and actually a much higher mark against LHBs this year (.368), batters from both sides are above a .350 wOBA with a ground ball rate below 40%. That could be dangerous for this matchup with Washington. The two through six batters in the order are all above a 110 wRC+ vs LHP this season. Remove Trea Turner (114 wRC+, .142 ISO) and the three through six batters are all above a .200 ISO as well. Ryan ZImmerman (223 wRC+, .339 ISO) has been the most potent lefty masher here, but the middle of this order could do more damage than oddsmakers suggest here (4.49 implied runs).
Other tagged players: Trea Turner, Jon Lester
Massive platoon split and terrible bullpen
Joe Ross makes his first start of the season after Tommy John surgery. Behind him, the Washington bullpen has a FIP above six over the last 30 days. As a consequence, the Cubs (5.01) are one of just five teams on the slate above five implied runs. Ross has a massive career splits with LHBs (.364) just shy of 100 points above RHBs against him. The difference is eight points by K-BB% and 13 by GB%. Each of the four LHBs for the Cubs have at least a 125 wRC+ and .175 ISO vs RHP this year with Ben Zobrist (137 wRC+, .175 ISO) the only one below a .200 ISO as well. Not exactly cheap and Kyle Schwarber (125 wRC+, .277 ISO) bats sixth, but play your LH Cubbies in this spot.
Other tagged players: Kyle Schwarber, Joe Ross Positive run environment keeps elite bats in play
The Red Sox have just a 4.16 implied run line that is one of their lowest totals of the season at home. That’s because they’re facing Gerrit Cole (RHBs .284 wOBA, LHBs .242). Considering the massive park downgrade from Houston to one of the friendliest parks for RHBs, elite Boston bats should still be considered if ownership projections suggest they may go under-owned. Mookie Betts (169 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP) and J.D. Martinez (181 wRC+, .338 ISO) are still top bats here. Xander Bogaerts (134 wRC+, .253 ISO) is much more affordable and not far behind.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Gerrit Cole RHBs have a 73 point higher xwOBA than actual wOBA against this fly ball prone pitcher
The Pirates are less than one half run removed from the top of the board at 4.86 implied runs at home against Dan Straily. He normally doesn’t have much of a split, but LHBs (.357 wOBA) are 70 points above RHBs against him. However, with a similar hard hit rate above 45% and ground ball rate below 35%, xwOBA has RHBs at .360 and LHBs as .375. The reason for the optimism on the Pittsburgh lineup is now apparent. Gregory Polanco (129 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP this season), Francisco Cervelli (136 wRC+, .188 ISO) and Starling Marte (113 wRC+, .170 ISO) are the top bats in this lineup. Corey Dickerson (111 wRC+, .186 ISO) is going through his second straight post-All-Star break swoon (-24 wRC+ last seven days). Kevin Kramer (141 wRC+ at AAA) is the cheap top of the lineup bat.
Other tagged players: Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson, Dan Straily, Kevin Kramer Top Heavy Position
Shortstop is an extremely top heavy position on Friday night – guys like Francisco Lindor and Trevor Story are tremendous plays but have exorbitant price tags. The mid-tier thins out a bit (I do like Correa) and then you’re left with a pure punt option like Orlando Arcia who is only $2,000 on FanDuel and $2,700 on DraftKings. Arcia is not a good offensive player so if you’re rostering him it’s more so because of the context – hitter’s park on a team with an implied run total that will likely be north of five runs at closing.
Michael A. Stan
I’ll admit it – I’m a bit of a Michael A. Taylor stan. MAT is more of a GPP target than a cash game option but he’s a guy that can provide a little bit of pop (.163 ISO) versus LHP and also provides some upside with his speed on the basepaths. Lester has been mostly neutral in terms of stolen base prevention the past couple of seasons but owns a -3 rSB for his career. If targeting MAT, or any Nats hitter for speed, you’ll want to keep an eye on who is catching for the Cubs as Caratini provides a much better stolen base matchup.
Value In Minnesota
Keep a close eye on the Twins lineup tonight as it appears that Target Field is where Friday’s top value hitters will reside. All of these guys are largely league average hitters but they’ll draw a good matchup against Heath Fillmyer who really struggles to miss bats (7.7 SwStr%) and limit hard contact (41.2 Hard%). Interestingly, Fillmyer is allowing more hard contact against same handed hitters (51.1 Hard%) – it’s likely a small sample size thing but the main point here is to not avoid same handed hitters simply because they won’t have the platoon advantage.
Other tagged players: Logan Forsythe, Robbie Grossman, Miguel Sano Daily Bullpen Alert: Two above a six FIP last 30 days, nobody else above five
There are now two bullpens above a six FIP over the last month. By that metric, the Nationals (6.20) are barely worse than the Orioles (6.19), but by K-BB, they’re still much better (11% to 4.7%). Joe Ross makes his first start of the season for the Nationals against the Cubs. The Orioles send out Dylan Bundy in Tampa Bay. Opportunity exists to attack both these bullpens tonight. While there is not another bullpen in the majors above even a five FIP over the last month, the Cardinals (4.73 FIP) have a 4.4 K-BB% that’s even worse than the Orioles. Rookie Austin Gomber is in Detroit though, and has gone at least six innings in three of his last four starts. Potentially light workloads that players should also be aware of are Stephen Gonsalves, averaging less than four innings per start. The Twins have a 4.98 FIP (12.4 K-BB%) over the last month, but the Royals as opponents. Daniel Norris is just in his second start back from the DL. The Tigers have a 4.56 FIP and 13.5 K-BB% over the last week in a tough spot against the Cardinals. Neither Brett Kennedy nor Felix Pena have gone very deep into their starts. The San Diego bullpen is a deterrent (3.46 FIP, 20.5 K-BB%). The Angels (4.27 FIP, 12.2 K-BB%) face the White Sox in Chicago.
Not THAT Bad
Ok, hear me out: Stephen Gonsalves is not THAT bad. I mean, he’s not good, but he’s not 9.90 ERA bad. Prior to a rough first three Big League starts for Gonsalves he was putting together a nice little year in AAA with a 2.96 ERA and 23.1% strikeout rate. He’s struggled at all levels with control but thankfully for him the Royals are one of the most impatient teams in the Majors – they own the third lowest walk-rate (7.2%) versus LHP. On top of a low walk-rate, the Royals strikeout a lot (23.8 K%) versus southpaws and are just generally inept offensively as they own the league’s worst wRC+ (77). Don’t roster Gonsalves expecting a gem but there’s plenty of room for him to return value on his dirt cheap price tag and for you to capitalize on his minuscule ownership while public perception on him remains strongly negative.
Second best strikeout rate on a loaded board for less than $10K
James Paxton has a 31.9 K% this season that’s only exceeded on today’s board by the visiting pitcher at Fenway. Paxton also has a difficult matchup against the Yankees (113 wRC+, 10.4 BB%, 17.9 HR/FB vs LHP). He has struggled with injuries (one start since 8/14) and performance (at least three runs in eight of last 11 starts), but he still has a 33.2 K% over that span and gets to face the Yankees (23.9 K% vs LHP) at home. He’s also less than $10K tonight and may be the top value on the site despite the wide range of potential outcomes. Some of those outcomes include the potential to meet or exceed the fantasy production of any other pitcher on the board. Chris Archer has just a 22.7 K% in six starts for the Pirates and went beyond five innings for the first time in his last start. He hosts Miami though (86 wRC+ vs RHP), and costs less than $7.5K. Steven Matz has a 29.8 K% and 13.4 SwStr% over the last 30 days. He’s gone seven innings with one run allowed in two straight starts and costs $7.6K or less at home against the Phillies (83 wRC+, 5.6 Hard-Soft% vs LHP). Dylan Bundy is still a launching pad, but has struck out 15 of his last 49 and does get a park upgrade in Tampa Bay for $6.5K. Felix Pena has improved on his hard contact rate (88 mph aEV for the season now) and has a 25 K% over the last month. He’s on the road against the White Sox (18.7 K-BB% vs RHP). He’s less than $7K as well. Daniel Norris is not in a great spot (Cardinals 106 wRC+, 16.9 HR/FB vs LHP), but costs just $5K DK and struck out seven of 15 Yankees in his return from the DL. Seven pitchers on tonight’s slate have an xwOBA below .290 over the last week. Derek Holland (.270) is the only one costing less than $10K. He’s in a dangerous spot in Milwaukee, but costs less than $7K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Chris Archer, Steven Matz, Dylan Bundy, Felix Pena, Daniel Norris Necessarily Uncomfortable
It’s probably jumping the shark a bit to feel comfortable rostering Chris Archer as Friday’s top overall pitching option, but hey, it’s September baseball, let’s get wild. Archer finally had a strong performance with the Pittsburgh Pirates as he pitched six innings of one run ball in Atlanta his last start out. Archer’s 4.56 ERA this season is high but his 3.82 SIERA is more palatable and he draws a favorable home matchup against a Marlins offense that owns an 86 wRC+ versus RHP. Archer’s price tag is too low and his baseline skill-level too high to pass him up as a primary pitching option on Friday’s full slate.
Friday night's board loaded with pitching, including five under a .270 xwOBA last 30 days
Friday night’s 14 game slate is loaded with top tier pitching. Five pitchers exceed $10K on both sites, while two more at least reach that price on FanDuel, but not DraftKings. An argument can be made that Patrick Corbin (SP4 on either site) might be under-valued tonight. His 15.2 SwStr% tops the board, his 31.1 K% is third and the two pitchers ahead of him are facing the Red Sox and Yankees. He has the lowest SIERA on the slate (2.87) and the fourth best xwOBA (.288). The glaring negative here is that the Braves have a 111 wRC+ and 19.6 K% vs LHP, but Arizona is no longer considered a positive run environment. Aaron Nola (DK SP2, FD SP1) is up to a 33.9 K% with a 15.4 SwStr% over the last month. His 50.2 GB% and .264 xwOBA this season both top the board. He may be tonight’s top overall pitcher in an extremely negative run environment at Citi Field (Mets 82 wRC+, 8.7 HR/FB at home). Masahiro Tanaka (24.6 K%) just reaches $10K on FanDuel. The matchup is low upside (Mariners 103 wRC+, 19.8 K% vs RHP), but the large park upgrade may be more important for him. Carlos Carrasco (DK SP3, FD SP2) is up to a 31.8 K% and 16.9 SwStr% over the last month and faces a depleted Toronto lineup that does have a 106 wRC+ and 14.2 HR/FB vs RHP for the season. Blake Snell is the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings. He has a 38.8 K% and 19.1 SwStr% over the last 30 days. He struck out 17 of his last 48, allowing just two ERs combined against the Red Sox and Indians. He is at home against a Baltimore offense with a 75 wRC+ on the road, 77 wRC+ vs LHP and 62 wRC+ over the last seven days. They do have a respectable 21.8 K% against southpaws though. Gerrit Cole (34.7 K%, 2.90 SIERA, .285 xwOBA are all top three on the board) is barely above $10K on both sites, but is in Boston (114 wRC+, 18.7 K% vs RHP). Clayton Kershaw is $10.3K on FanDuel and is at Coors tonight (Rockies 16.7 K% vs LHP). However, he’s also just $8.8K on DraftKings and has the top xwOBA on the board over the last month (.245). Kershaw has gone at least seven innings in four straight starts. Kershaw, Snell, Cole, Corbin and Nola all have an xwOBA below .270 over the last 30 days.
Other tagged players: Aaron Nola, Masahiro Tanaka, Carlos Carrasco, Blake Snell, Gerrit Cole, Clayton Kershaw The Splits Still Holding Up
Ryan Braun keeps getting older, but nothing has been able to slow him down against lefties. In this loaded Brewers lineup, Braun has as many homers against lefties as anyone on this team and his 52% hard hit rate is the highest mark in the lineup while maintaining his strong 81% contact rate. Because he doesn’t play every day and has slowed down overall, his salary is too low for these skills. Derek Holland is a quality pitcher, but he has still not been able to limit hard hits or fly balls to righties and this is a bad spot for him tonight.
Flying High
The Cardinals are a right-handed heavy lineup with loads of hard hit ability against lefties adding a DH with a trip to an AL park to face a left-handed pitcher making his 2nd start off the DL. In his very brief sample size around injuries this season, Daniel Norris has shown some strikeout ability, but based on his history, there is no sign that this is anymore than an average strikeout pitcher who hasn’t been able to control batted balls. Marcell Ozuna has a huge 46% hard hit rate against lefties this season with just a 15.9% strikeout rate and has looked sharp in his return from the DL, with six hits and two home runs in the past two games.