DFS Alerts

Cheap Pitcher with Upside

Gaviglio pitched well his last time out and it was against this same Orioles’ offense. He struck out seven batters in seven innings of work and picked up the win. While his home/road splits are concerning and while I typically avoid pitchers that are facing the same team for the second start in a row, it’s hard not to like Gaviglio here. On the season, he has held right-handed hitters to a .308 xwOBA with a 26% strikeout rate. He’ll likely face six or seven righties tonight against Baltimore, whose projected lineup has an average k-rate of 24% against right-handed pitching.

At Home in a Strikeout-Friendly Matchup

For a small slate, there are quite a few aces taking the mound tonight. My favorite of the bunch is Tanaka, who boasts a 3.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 6%. As always, his biggest weakness has been the long ball. When he keeps the ball in the park, he tends to have big fantasy outings. He draws one of the top matchups of the slate, as the White Sox projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .314 with a strikeout rate of 27% against right-handed pitching. As a massive favorite at home with a high ceiling, Tanaka is my go-to play tonight at pitcher.

The Cheap-ish Option

If you need a cheaper SP2 tonight, Sam Gaviglio has the matchup to make him the top target under the $8k/$16k range on DK/FDRFT. Gaviglio is no superstar, but he does have very good numbers against right-handed batters with a 26.4% K rate and 52% ground balls. His struggles against lefties are helped by a weak and right-handed heavy Orioles team that comes in with a 24.4% K rate against right-handed pitching and very little power. It’s not such a great price that Gaviglio is any sort of must play, but he’s the only thing in the lower range to feel good about tonight.

Top Of A High End Offense

The Yankees are in the running for the highest team total of the night, despite facing a pretty good pitcher in Carlos Rodon. As much as I like Rodon, his strikeouts are down to below average this season, and the top of this Yankees lineup is not going to make things easy on him. Outside of Giancarlo Stanton, all the Yankees righties are affordable on DK/FDRFT tonight, and Aaron Hicks gives you power, speed, patience, hard hit and on base ability from the top of a high end offense, all at a reasonable price tag.

Just Get That Ball In The Air

We have an extreme wind blowing out in Wrigley, the type that turns this into the best hitters park in the league. The Cubs are throwing Jon Lester, who doesn’t have a single plus skill against right-handed batters. With below average 18.3% K, 8.6% BB and no ability to keep the ball on the ground, these Mets righties with fly ball ability are in play in all formats. Todd Frazier is cheap on FD and with his 41% fly ball rate against lefties, he just needs one ball up into this wind to make a profit.

What Year Is It?

it’s 2018, and Jose Bautista is a Core Play. Though Bautista’s skills are somewhat respectable, it would still take extenuating circumstances for him to be a highly ranked play. Those circumstances are an extreme wind blowing out in Wrigley Field, and a low strikeout pitcher who can’t control batted balls for the Cubs. When the wind reaches this level at Wrigley, all we need is balls hit into the air. That is the one thing Bautista still does well. He has a 45% fly ball rate against lefties this season, and he is also a patient hitter that is not swinging at bad pitches. Jon Lester doesn’t have a single plus skill against righties with 18.3% K, 8.6% BB and no ability to control batted balls. At this salary, just getting the ball in the air is enough.

He's Seeing the Ball Well Right Now

Carlos Rodon has been pitching a lot better recently, and even though he has a high 5.15 xFIP, he’s been able to limit the damage with a 6.8% hard to soft contact ratio. With that said, he faces a Yankees team that is very good against left-handed pitching and he gets a ballpark downgrade going into Yankee Stadium.

Voit is 11 for his last 29 at the plate with a 1.127 OPS, and he has multiple hits in two of the last three games, including three home runs. Voit doesn’t have a large sample size against lefties, but in 55 at bats since the start of 2017, he has a .212 ISO with a .462 CXwOBA and a 43.2% hard-hit rate. He presents incredible value on FanDuel, and he’s cheap enough to consider in all formats on DraftKings.

Nice Strikeout Upside In This Matchup

When looking at the top-tier options, Gray is slightly discounted compared to the other pitchers in this tier. I actually like this spot a lot for Gray tonight, and he could actually be overlooked because of the matchup. The Angels on the season have a 20.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, but this projected starting lineup has a 21.6% strikeout rate. Fletcher, Pujols, and Simmons don’t strike out much, but Ward, Arcia, Young, Ohtani, and Calhoun are all over 24% against right-handed pitching. The young guys towards the bottom are striking out a lot, and that presents even more upside for Gray. You always worry about Trout and Ohtani taking Gray deep, but the guy has a 27% strikeout rate with a 13.8% swinging strike rate on the season.

Look At The Groundball Rates

When looking at the cheaper options on this slate, it really comes down to Gaviglio or Despaigne. I’m not a Despaigne fan, so I’m looking at Gaviglio against Baltimore. Sam Gaviglio has struggled with home runs this season, and that worries me in this ballpark. The good thing is he’s struggled more with lefties, and of the three projected lefties, two of them have strikeout rates over 27% against right-handed pitching this season. All of the projected starters outside of Chris Davis have a groundball rate over 50% since 2016 against sinkers. I look for Gaviglio to use that sinker to get a lot of easy outs and use his slider to finish hitters off to rack up some strikeouts.

This Sounds Hot Too

Kendrys Morales is as hot as they come, homering in seven straight games, but another thing that is usually hot is Smoak. (That is dumb, sorry!). I don’t blame you at all if you want to keep riding the hot hand of Morales, and on FD and FDRFT, you can use both of these guys, but the salaries have gotten a little too far out of alignment on Morales vs Smoak for their overall talent levels. They are very similar hitters and project similarly in what is obviously the same matchup. Both guys have home run upside against a fly ball pitcher in David Hess, and both guys should be in the middle of the lineup. I love them both, but I’ll take the savings of Smoak.

Rematch

Stephen Strasburg gets a rematch against the Phillies who roughed him up for five earned runs over four innings pitched in his first start off the DL. The promising thing to note is that while he did get roughed up a bit he threw 84 pitches and pitch count really shouldn’t be much of a problem on Monday. Another promising note is that one of the Phillies that inflicted the most damage on Strasburg is now on the DL (Justin Bour). Strasburg had some velocity concerns toward the end of his last start but that can be expected coming off the DL and I’m not overly worried about it. The Phillies do have a potent lineup but they also have a lineup that strikes out a lot, which should provide Strasburg with a reasonable floor/ceiling combo.

Bottom of the Barrel

Starting pitching falls off a cliff quickly as we’re left digging for some value at a position that is extremely top heavy. Despaigne jumps out as a potential GPP target strictly due to his bottom of the barrel price tag and favorable matchup. It’s non intuitive but the Rockies own the league’s worst wRC+ (78) versus RHP this season and really aren’t an offensive to worry about outside of Coors. The Rockies also own a 23.6% strikeout rate against righties which places them as the ninth highest strikeout rate in the league. Despaigne is unlikely to wow you on Monday night with his performance but there is some room to return value on his $4,100 price tag and he’s certainly drawing live to get you double digit points.

The Cash Game Ace

For a short slate, there are a number of high profile arms taking the mound tonight in Cole, Corbin, Tanaka, Syndergaard and Strasburg. Of these aces, Tanaka is my preferred cash game option, as he has the most favorable matchup and price point. Targeting pitchers against the White Sox is always a recipe for strikeout upside, as they have a 25.7 K% vs RHP, which is the highest on tonight’s slate. Tanaka also comes at a discount from Cole and Corbin, and is cheaper than Syndergaard on DraftKings as well. Finally, the Yankees have the highest team run total on the board, making Tanaka a massive favorite in this matchup, and thus likely to pick up the win. While any of the high-priced arms are viable GPP plays, Tanaka gets the nod as the safest option due to the high floor his matchup provides, and his lower price point.

Power Stack

At the time of this writing the Yankees are tied with the Cubs for the highest implied run total on the slate (5.5). New York will host Carlos Rodon and the White Sox and make for a relatively cost effective stack, especially on DraftKings. Unfortunately the Yankees don’t have a ton of speed upside in what’s an excellent stolen base matchup but their lineup has plenty of affordable power. Specifically, Luke Voit has put up 26 and 34 DK points in two of his last three games and is sill dirt cheap – he’s min price on FanDuel ($2,000) and $3,400 on DraftKings.

Matchup + Salary +Skills

On DK/FDRFT, Masahiro Tanaka is the mid-tier standout at a huge discount to the two aces, Gerrit Cole and Patrick Corbin. While Tanaka lacks their strikeout ability, he’s a well-above average strikeout pitcher with a 25.1% K rate along with low 6.2% walks. It’s all about home runs for Tanaka, and anytime he’s at home, there will be some risk there, but the high strikeouts for Chicago outweigh that risk tonight. Their projected lineup has a silly high 26.8% K rate and very few batters with any semblance of patience at the plate, which could help his innings as well. He’s a cash game and tournament option at this salary on DK/FDRFT.