DFS Alerts
No weather issues, favorable hitting conditions
There are no weather issues for Monday night, but several spots with favorable hitting conditions. The updated forecast is available on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can get further details from Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Favorable hitting conditions boost this lineup's potential
The Mets have a 79 wRC+, 25.1 K% and 9.3 HR/FB vs LHP. Their 4.9 implied run line tonight is mostly a product of very favorable hitting weather at Wrigley, especially for RHBs with winds blowing out to left-center. It’s also a product of Jon Lester’s .319 wOBA against LHBs, which xwOBA pushes all the way up to .359. Amed Rosario (77 wRC+, .124 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) hasn’t done much, but is an affordable leadoff bat with great stolen base potential should he be able to reach. Todd Frazier (92 wRC+, .219 ISO) is probably the highest upside bat in this lineup and leads it with a 136 wRC+ over the last week with three HRs.
Other tagged players: Jon Lester, Amed Rosario Power potential in a power boosting park
Masahiro Tanaka is a high upside pitcher in a high upside spot against the White Sox, but he’s also a very home run prone pitcher in a park that significantly boosts LH power. While Tanaka’s wOBA is actually 42 points higher against RHBs than LHBs this year, xwOBA brings them both within three points of .325 and he’s historically had very little platoon split. The Chicago bat players should be looking at with the most HR upside here is Daniel Palka (106 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). In fact, he’s the only batter in the lineup above a .200 ISO vs RHP over that span, though all except the ninth place hitter are above a .160 ISO.
Other tagged players: Masahiro Tanaka Under the radar hard hitting bats against hard contact prone pitcher
There’s no doubt that Gerrit Cole is a top pitcher on tonight’s board. The Oakland A’s have just a 3.36 implied run line, second lowest on the board, in the most negative run environment on the board. However, Cole is not beyond allowing some hard contact. In fact, it’s downplayed by a 34.7 K%, but his 41.7% 95+ mph EV is worst on the board. Also, RHBs have just a .269 wOBA against him this season, but that’s actually higher than LHBs and xwOBA raises that number 52 points. Cole is a fly ball pitcher and while Houston is run negative, it does not suppress power. Specifically, I’m looking at Khris Davis (143 wRC+, .297 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Matt Chapman (138 wRC+, .251 ISO) both above a 42% hard hit rate against RHP over the last year as well. Chapman costs just $3.8K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Gerrit Cole LHBs have a .426 wOBA against this pitcher over his last seven starts
Zach Eflin has a 5.59 ERA, 5.15 FIP and 18.5 K% with eight HRs allowed over his last seven starts and some major platoon issues. LHBs have a .358 wOBA against him this season with just a 33.6 GB%, dangerous in a power boosting park. That’s up to a .426 wOBA for LHBs with five HRs over this seven start span. The Nationals (4.61) should be able to score some runs tonight and players will want exposure to the LH portion of their lineup: Adam Eaton (138 wRC+, .128 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Bryce Harper (132 wRC+, .267 ISO) and Juan Soto (142 wRC+, .205 ISO). RHBs have just a .270 wOBA against Eflin this year.
Other tagged players: Adam Eaton, Juan Soto, Zach Eflin Exposure to either side may be reasonable
Brett Anderson has thrown at least seven shutout innings in three of his last four starts. Of course, he’s struck out a total of 10 in those starts and he’s facing the Astros (124 wRC+ and 19.6 K% vs LHP) with a 13.1 K% and 8.3% Barrels/BBE, but he’s in the most negative run environment on the board with a ground ball rate up to 55.7% now and has a bit of a reverse split (RHBs .310 wOBA). Players who want to pay up for pitching and have some room left over for bats may need to consider him in their secondary DraftKings spot for $5.7K. Players will also probably want to hedge on that a bit against a Houston lineup finally at full strength with a 4.64 implied run line tonight. While each of the bit four at the top of the lineup are above a 120 wRC+ vs LHP over the last calendar year, Alex Bregman (162 wRC+, .256 ISO) has become the standout and the only one above a .200 ISO over that span. A bit down further in the sixth spot, small sample superstar Tyler White has destroyed LHP as well (194 wRC+, .341 ISO).
Other tagged players: Tyler White, Brett Anderson Weather vs great contact management
The Cubs are just a tiny fraction above the Yankees for the top run line on the board at 5.6 tonight. This is not a surprise at home with the wind blowing out on a warm humid night. It is a surprise because Noah Syndergaard is the opposing pitcher. Thor does have a 4.50 ERA over the last month, but with a SIERA a full run lower and a 13.3 SwStr%. He’s also generated the weakest contact on the board and it’s not even close. His .276 xwOBA, 84.7 mph aEV, 2.2% Barrels/BBE and 26.6% 95+ mph EV are all best on the board, his 49.8 GB% is second. While the book on Syndergaard has always been that he can be run on at will, there are only two batters in the Chicago lineup with elite Stolen Base Threat Ratings (premium subscription required) and one of them is batting ninth. Javier Baez (125 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) might be the most attractive batter in the lineup. RHBs have a .290 wOBA and 52.5 GB% against Syndergaard this year, but the wind is blowing out to left-center. Anthony Rizzo (137 wRC+, .221 ISO) has a 272 wRC+ and 55.6 Hard% over the last week, both team highs, and new leadoff man Daniel Murphy (156 wRC+, .196 ISO) is reasonably priced and in a great spot per Vegas, but it’s difficult to get behind too many Cubs bats against a high quality pitcher and the top contact manager on the board tonight.
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rizzo, Noah Syndergaard Cheap cleanup bat for top projected offense
Carlos Rodon really hasn’t been that bad against RHBs this season, even if the .304 xwOBA is a bit above the .270 actual with a 25.8 Hard%. However, his ERA is well below his peripherals due to a .206 wOBA, 80.1 LOB% and 8.7 HR/FB. The Yankees, at home, are in a near tie for the top run line on the board at 5.54 tonight, but it’s not the type of lineup one would expect to see from the Bronx Bombers. Luke Voit had a 424 wRC+ that leads all of baseball over the last week (at least 10 PAs). He has homered three times in 15 PAs and hits cleanup for the Yankees tonight and costs the minimum on FD ($3.4K on DK). It’s very likely he’s the most popular player on the board considering the price of pitching tonight. The remainder of the top five batters in the order for the Yankees tonight all are above a 115 wRC+ and .230 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year, a group that includes Giancarlo Stanton (200 wRC+, .358 ISO) and Gleyber Torres (126 wRC+, .256 ISO) with Miguel Andujar (118 wRC+, .233 ISO) the low man in both categories batting third tonight.
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres, Carlos Rodon Going for eight straight in a great spot
David Hess is coming off his best start of the season last time out (7 IP – 1 R – 0 BB – 7 K) against these Blue Jays. It was only the second time (13 starts) he’s gone beyond six innings and the first time he’s struck out more than four. He has the second lowest strikeout rate (14.9%) and worst Barrels/BBE (9.4%) on the board. Consider the .339 or better wOBA and xwOBA to batters from either side and consider a Baltimore bullpen with a FIP above six (6.3 K-BB%) over the last month. Also realize that this is the most positive run environment on the board tonight and Toronto bats seem to deserve at least their 5.03 implied run line with Hess and friends very unlikely to repeat his previous effort. Of course, Kendrys Morales (126 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is enjoying a career week (HRs in seven straight games). His price is up to $5K on DraftKings now. Ironic that Justin Smoak (125 wRC+, .232 ISO) is the much cheaper alternative now. Billy McKinney (257 wRC+, .440 ISO) is a small sample superstar, but should have some value batting second in this spot ($3.9K DK/$2.8K FD). Curtis Granderson (108 wRC+, .187 ISO) and Randal Grichuk (113 wRC+, .278 ISO) are reasonable as part of a top five stack as well, though Grandy’s $4.7K price on DraftKings may slightly over-state his production.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Curtis Granderson, Billy McKinney, Randal Grichuk, David Hess A potentially under-owned lineup
That the Phillies are even implied for 4.4 runs tonight against Stephen Strasburg is a bit telling. His velocity was down significantly as he allowed five runs to these Phillies in his return from the DL and his 9.2% Barrels/BBE is second worst on the board. Further incentive to consider Phillies’ bats is that the Washington bullpen has the second worst FIP in the majors over the last month (5.35) and Philadelphia is one of several parks Kevin’s morning forecast emphasizes as having favorable hitting conditions. Every single batter in this lineup is above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year. It’s actually RHBs that have a .324 wOBA (.344 xwOBA) and 42.3 Hard% against Strasburgh this season. Rhys Hoskins (137 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is appealing as always, as is cleanup hitter Wilson Ramos (131 wRC+, .212 ISO). Also of interest is tonight’s leadoff man Roman Quinn (125 wRC+, .100 ISO). Although he has just a .272 xwOBA vs RHP, he does cost just $2.3K on FanDuel and can run. While most players will probably recognize enough of an issue with Strasburg to avoid rostering him, how many will go completely in the opposite direction and attack him along with a terrible bullpen.
Other tagged players: Wilson Ramos, Wilson Ramos Daily Bullpen Alert: One incredibly atrocious pen on the board
There are just two bullpens in baseball above a five FIP over the last month and both of them are on the board tonight. The Nationals (5.35 FIP, 13.1 K-BB%) will support Stephen Strasburg in Philadelphia tonight. He struggled against this same lineup in his return from the DL last week with reduced velocity. The bullpen issues make this a more appealing spot to roster some bats. More than a full run worse, we find the Orioles with an unsightly 6.44 FIP and a 6.3 K-BB% over the last 30 days. David Hess will start at home against the Blue Jays. He pitched seven innings against Toronto in his last start, but it was only the second time this season he’s gone beyond six innings. Baltimore may be the most positive run environment on the board as well. For this reason and because Sam Gaviglio is averaging just five innings per start (second lowest on the board), we should note that the Blue Jays pen has a 15.1 K-BB% over the last month, but with a 4.60 FIP. Odrisamer Despaigne has pitched exactly four innings in each of his starts for the Angels (4.13 FIP, 11.8 K-BB%). However, he’s facing the Rockies in a negative run environment.
Disproportionate percentage of high priced pitching, but there may be a clear top arm on this board
Despite just 14 teams on the slate, two pitchers are above $10K on both sites. It’s not a coincidence that they’re the only two pitchers on the board above a 30 K%. Two more reach $10K on one site. Gerrit Cole has the top strikeout rate (34.7%) on the board with the top SIERA (2.87). While his .289 xwOBA is second, he has allowed the highest rate of contact above 95 mph (41.7%) and is facing the hardest hitting offense on the slate (A’s 23.3 Hard-Soft% on the road, 23.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). He does so in the most negative run environment in baseball however. Patrick Corbin has failed to complete six innings just four times since his first start of the season and has the second highest strikeout rate (30.8%) with the highest swinging strike rate (15.1%). His 17.6 SwStr% over the last month is best on the board with an increased strikeout rate (31.8%). His 2.90 SIERA is second best on the board and his .290 xwOBA is third. He’s got the best overall matchup of the high priced arms in San Francisco (10.0 HR/FB) against the Giants (87 wRC+, 10.8 HR/FB vs LHP). Corbin is likely the top pitcher tonight and perhaps the top high priced value as well. While the 20.3 K% over the last month for Noah Syndergaard is not very impressive, his 13.3 SwStr% is still near elite territory. His .276 xwOBA, 84.7 mph aEV, 2.2% Barrels/BBE and 26.6% 95+ mph EV are all best on the board, his 49.8 GB% is second. He gets a park downgrade against one of the most disciplined (11.5 K-BB% vs RHP) offenses on the board at Wrigley, but there’s probably some value in a price tag around $10K given the talent in this arm and the optimism the SwStr% inspires. Masahiro Tanaka and his third best 13.7 SwStr% on this board are in a super high upside matchup against the White Sox (18.1 K-BB% on the road, 18.7 K-BB% vs RHP), but they do have some power (14+ HR/FB on the road and vs RHP) and we all know about his issues (20.5 HR/FB, 8.0% Barrels/BBE) in a difficult park, while he’s struck out just 12 of his last 69 batters. He could certainly put up the top performance tonight, but there may be a bit more risk than some players anticipate. Perhaps the top value on the board is just under $9K. Jon Gray has pitched into the seventh inning with three runs or less in six of seven starts since returning from the minors. He’s struck out 17 of his last 54 on the road. He has the fourth best strikeout rate (27.1%) and xwOBA (.299) on the board. The Angels don’t normally strike out much (20.7% vs RHP), but are up to 26.9% with a 7.9 HR/FB over the last week, though the meat of their order was entirely absent for some of those games. It’s obviously a massive park upgrade too.
Other tagged players: Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka, Noah Syndergaard, Jon Gray Keep Playing The Young Prospect
DraftKings did a really good job pricing Billy McKinney up, but he’s still a nice value play over on FanDuel. He hit leadoff on Sunday, and I’d be shocked if he doesn’t hit leadoff for the rest of the season. McKinney was a top prospect for the Yankees (he was in the J.A. Happ deal), and after an injury earlier this season, he’s finally getting regular playing time with the Blue Jays. In 30 PAs, he has a .440 ISO with a .550 wOBA against right-handed pitching. These numbers will obviously come down, but I’m going to ride the hot bat against a weaker pitcher that struggles to strike out left-handed hitters.
Wind Blowing Out in Wrigley
The Mets will likely garner ownership tonight, but I hope they don’t become the chalky stack. They are cheap, they are facing a fly-ball pitcher, and the wind is blowing out to left in Wrigley. There is a lot to like in this matchup, even though they have struggled against southpaws all season. Jon Lester has allowed a .369 xwOBA to lefties and a .359 xwOBA to righties, which brings batters from both sides of the plate into play. A full stack is certainly viable here, while Amed Rosario, Wilmer Flores, and Todd Frazier all stand out as elite plays at their respective positions.
Unreal Hot Streak
The Blue Jays have the third highest implied run total on the board. It’s actually good that they don’t have the highest total, as it would lead to higher ownership. They are my favorite offense of the slate. They are playing on the road (guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats), they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, and they draw a great matchup against David Hess. In addition to having a low strikeout rate and a high fly-ball rate, he has allowed a .356 xwOBA to lefties and a .339 xwOBA to righties. There are a number of elite plays in this lineup, but I wanted to highlight Kendrys Morales, who has been on a heater that’s almost unheard of. Over his last ten games, he has 17 hits, eight home runs, and 15 RBI.