DFS Alerts
This Pitcher is an Easy Sale in this Matchup
I’ve been streaming pitchers against the Orioles for months now. I mean, I even played Marco Estrada last night. While he didn’t have an amazing outing, he easily reached value at his price point. I’m expecting more of the same for Gaviglio. He’s been tough on right-handed hitters all season and gets to face a right-handed heavy Orioles’ offense that continues to struggle at the plate. Their projected lineup for tonight’s game has an average xwOBA of .304 with a strikeout rate of 23% against right-handed pitching.
Favorite Pitcher of the Slate
We rarely have a 15-game slate that doesn’t feature a true ace, but that’s the case tonight. Tanaka stands out as my favorite pitching option for a number of reasons. We’ll start with the fact that he sees a favorable ballpark shift playing in Miami. His biggest issue has always been home runs and this is a ballpark that suppresses home run production. Not only that, but the Marlins rarely hit home runs. He also gets to play in an NL ballpark, so he’ll get to face the opposing pitcher in the lineup. And finally, he has one of the best matchups of the slate. The Marlins’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .208 with a k-rate over 20% against right-handed pitching.
You Know What To Do
It’s Nolan Arenado at home against a lefty. You know the story. (Story?). Though Robbie Erlin has some ability to limit hard contact to righties, he is basically an average pitcher and not nearly enough to offset the outlandish skills of Arenado. Against lefties this season, he has a goofy .431 ISO and .542 wOBA on 50% hard hits. At home against lefties – .538 ISO, .621 wOBA. LOL.
In The Middle Of The Action
The Cubs are one of the top offenses on this slate, and Anthony Rizzo will be in the middle of this loaded lineup at a very fair salary on DK/FDRFT, and an easy fit in cash games and Chicago stacks. Jordan Zimmermann has slipped back to his old ways, allowing a massive amount of hard contact, resulting in multiple home runs in five of his last six starts. Zimmermann throws a lot of strikes and the contact skills of Rizzo, with just 9.6% K against righties will allow him to get the ball in play all night, likely with runners on base on both sides of him.
A Messy Slate For Pitching
We are without an elite ace tonight, and the pricing on bats makes it tough to want to spend up on pitching. However, the mid-tier options are even worse, so I do recommend starting with one of the top four pitchers in cash games. On FD, it would be Blake Snell, except there’s still a lot of question surrounding his pitch count. On DK/FDRFT, the salary on Masahiro Tanaka is a standout among the top options. He gets a trip to Miami where his biggest issue, home runs, is unlikely to be a big problem. Tanaka has been at the top of his game with a 28.1% K rate and 5.8% walks over the past month. What Miami lacks in strikeout upside, they make up for with only one batter in their regular lineup above a league average ISO and a combined .294 wOBA from tonight’s projected lineup.
George Springer (quad) scratched Monday; Tyler White replaces
Springer has been scratched from the Astros original confirmed lineup and will not start in Monday’s matchup against the Seattle Mariners due to left quad soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Tyler White, who will play first base and slot into the fifth spot in the order, which bumps Marwin Gonzalez all the way up to the two-hole, while Alex Bregman and Josh Reddick each move up one batting position to leadoff and sixth, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Astros order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Felix Hernandez on the road this evening.
As reported by: Jake Kaplan via Twitter Other tagged players: Tyler White
Start of Monday's CHW-MIN game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins on Monday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Twins have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Stephen Gonsalves not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, pitchers and hitters from this contest are probably best reserved for tournament formats and gamers that are largely risk averse may be better off avoiding this matchup altogether with the potential of a late postponement, albeit, not the likeliest outcome.
As reported by: Brandon Warne via Twitter Hard hitting team faces a sub-par starter and terrible bullpen
The A’s have a 4.94 implied run line that’s highest of the six west coast teams tonight and probably doesn’t even consider Bartolo Colon’s back issues that caused him to be scratched last night. Batters from either side of the plate are within two points of a .370 xwOBA against him this season as well as above a 40% hard hit rate, while the Texas bullpen has a bottom three FIP over the last 30 days. While part of that is probably due to the park in Texas and Oakland is a significantly lower run environment, this is an offense that hits the ball hard with each of the first five batters in the lineup above a 125 wRC+ and only Nick Martini (144 wRC+, .147 ISO, .340 xwOBA) below a .215 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Khris Davis (148 wRC+, .311 ISO) and Matt Olson (142 wRC+, .300 ISO) have as much upside as anyone tonight. Both are above a 150 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Matt Olson, Nick Martini, Bartolo Colon
A 306 wRC+ over the last week and 164 wRC+ vs LHP over the last year
The run line for the Dodgers has been climbing and is currently at 4.83. Dodger Stadium is the most negative run environment on the board, but the home team will confront Austin Gomber with seven RHBs, the first four of which are all above a 115 wRC+ and .180 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. Batters from that side have just a .289 wOBA against Gomber so far, but a .378 xwOBA and 41 Hard%. Justin Turner (164 wRC+, .208 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is on fire (306 wRC+ last seven days) and the most necessary bat to consider from this lineup. Manny Machado (129 wRC+, .211 ISO) is back in the lineup a day after being hit.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Austin Gomber One spot to watch on Monday night
Kevin’s forecast is fairly quiet tonight, but there is one spot to watch, which could be of interest to players. The updated forecast is now available on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can join Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET for further updates.
Talented Young Pitcher Making His Debut
With Gausman scratched, Bryse Wilson will make his Major League debut tonight. This 20-year-old prospect started the season in High-A ball. He made five starts in High-A, 15 starts in AA, and three starts in AAA. Wilson posted a 25%+ strikeout rate at all three levels while posting walk rates under 8%. He has a mid 90s fastball, with an above average slider, and a changeup that continues to get better. In 2017 they fixed a potential mechanical issue with him, and he’s been pitching great since then. The Pirates don’t strike out a lot, but he’s minimum salary and should be considered as a value pitcher in all formats tonight.
Deep and power packed lineup in one of tonight's most positive run environments
The Brewers will have the pleasure of teeing off against Homer Bailey tonight. While Bailey’s peripherals have been improved over the last month (20.4 K%, 3.98 SIERA, .329 xwOBA) he’s still allowed five runs in each of his last two starts and his season numbers are terrible (14.9 K%, 4.97 SIERA, .391 xwOBA). The Brewers have the highest run line on the board (5.47) in one of the three most positive run environments tonight. A lineup of high powered bats should do some damage here. Christian Yelich (138 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) may be the essential bat for stacks. Jesus Aguilar (140 wRC+, .298 ISO) has the top wRC+ and ISO. Lorenzo Cain (103 wRC+, .091 ISO) gains most of his value from his lineup spot. Mike Moustakas (99 wRC+, .205 ISO) and Travis Shaw (117 wRC+, .252 ISO) bring more middle of the order thunder from the left side. It’s difficult to find bats who don’t merit at least some consideration among the first five or six.
Other tagged players: Jesus Aguilar, Lorenzo Cain, Homer Bailey, Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas Blazed his way through the minors and min-priced on DraftKings tonight
Bryse Wilson will now take the ball for the Braves in Pittsburgh instead of Kevin Gausman. The 20 year-old did not start the season with much prospect fare, but has been moving up on lists by way of rocketing his way through the minors. He started the season at High A (18.3 K-BB% in five starts) before spending the majority of it at AA (18.8 K-BB% in 15 starts) and then making a mockery of AAA in three starts (29.3 K-BB%). He’s gone at least 6.2 innings in four of his last six starts too. The Pirates have just a 19.6 K% vs RHP, Wilson is available on DraftKings and costs just the minimum. For Pittsburgh, their top bats against RHP over the last calendar year are Corey Dickerson (124 wRC+, .208 ISO) and Francisco Cervelli (138 wRC+, .216 ISO).
Other tagged players: Corey Dickerson, Francisco Cervelli Elite LHBs with a low run line, but not necessarily a bad spot
Factors opposing success for the Indians tonight are that Fenway is actually a power suppressing environment for LHBs and the forecast calls for cooler temperatures and light winds blowing in from right tonight. However, Rick Porcello’s 29.2 K% over the last month is a farce with just an 8.3 SwStr%, while LHBs still have a .343 wOBA with eight HRs against him at Fenway this season. Cleveland has an implied run line below four in the most positive run environment tonight despite less than the most favorable conditions. The left-handed bats at the top of their lineup are elite and not at all in a bad spot against Porcello. If opposing players are not going to be on Francisco Lindor (148 wRC+, .301 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Michael Brantley (137 wRC+, .184 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (189 wRC+, .380 ISO) in this spot due to the run line, it’s probably a mistake.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Rick Porcello Stacking in Milwaukee
The Brewers are one of three teams that I consider the top stacking options of the evening (the Twins and Blue Jays are the other two). They draw a favorable matchup against Homer Bailey, who has a low strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate. The Brewers will have no issue making contact and good things tend to happen in this ballpark when you make contact. On the season, Bailey has allowed a .372 xwOBA to lefties and a .411 xwOBA to righties. Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Jesus Aguilar, and Travis Shaw all own a .370+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.