DFS Alerts
Daily Bullpen Alert: A 5.92 FIP and 5.9 K-BB% are both worst in the majors by far last 30 days
The Orioles, despite two shutout innings last night, are far and away the worst bullpen in the majors over the last 30 days. Their 5.92 FIP is worst by more than three quarters of a run. Their 5.9 K-BB% is worst by more than a full point. Dylan Bundy has been a HR machine with a strikeout rate below 19% since the start of July and the Blue Jays will have the pleasure of facing the worst pen in the majors behind him. The Rangers bring their second worst 5.15 bullpen FIP over the last month (13.3 K-BB%) to Oakland behind Ariel Jurado, who’s allowed the hardest exit velocity on the board. Those are the only two pens above a five FIP over the last month. Glenn Sparkman went four innings in his first start (Royals 4.42 FIP, 12.2 K-BB%). Robbie Erlin, Felix Pena, Sam Gaviglio and Steven Matz have all averaged fewer than five innings per start this year. Erlin brings the top bullpen in the majors both by FIP (3.01) and K-BB (23.7%) over the last 30 days to Coors. The Angels have a middling 4.15 FIP and 11.3 K-BB% over the last month and face the Diamondbacks. The Blue Jays have a FIP exactly at five, but an above average 15.1 K-BB% and are facing the Orioles. Matz’s Mets (4.69 FIP, 8.8 K-BB%) are at home against the Giants one night after the two teams played a lengthy affair.
Chalk Stack
I know a team with a 6.1 implied run total probably doesn’t need to be highlighted but I keep being shocked at how low Coors ownership ends up being, especially on 15-game slates. The other thing working in the favor of lower Rockies ownership is the fact that they’re a little less aesthetically pleasing to stack against LHP. Blackmon is likely to see low double-digit ownership simply due to the lack of platoon advantage despite this being a tremendous spot for him. The Rockies are my preferred stack for single entry GPPs as I think the large slate combined with a lefty on the mound for the Padres helps spread ownership out a bit.
Other tagged players: Ian Desmond, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Chris Iannetta
Power + Speed
The Brewers only scored five runs on Monday night but a Milwaukee stack still won GPPs as they found a way to provide value with a couple of HRs and SBs. That’s what makes a Milwaukee stack attractive again on Tuesday – not only do they have a lot of power in their lineup but they can also add points on the base paths. Milwaukee opened with a 5.2 implied run total against Sal Romano and that number has gradually increased throughout the AM. Romano has especially struggled versus lefty hitters this season (.387 wOBA, 5.55 xFIP, 13.7 K%, 13.4 Soft%) and has had trouble holding runners at bay (-1 rSB).
Other tagged players: Travis Shaw, Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain Lowest exit velocity on the board also has a 28.8 K% over the last 30 days
Kyle Hendricks has a 28.8 K% over the last month that’s brought his season strikeout rate above 20% as well now. Run prevention over the last month has not been ideal, but that’s due to a .363 BABIP. His .247 xwOBA over the last 30 days is one of the best marks on the board and his 85.3 mph aEV for the season is tonight’s top mark. He’s in a great spot against the Tigers (78 wRC+, 8.4 HR/FB vs RHP) if players don’t’ want to pay more than $9K for their starter. Kevin Gausman has struck out just two in five of his last eight starts and the Pirates have just a 19.6 K% vs RHP, but he’s not completely absent of upside at a reasonable cost ($7.5K or less) in a decent park with a strong defense and not a lot of extremely high upside arms on the mound otherwise tonight. Hyun-Jin Ryu has a 30.9 K% through seven starts this season. His first in over three months resulted in six shutout innings with six strikeouts. While the Cardinals are very dangerous vs LHP (11.4 K-BB%, 16.5 HR/FB), he has a reverse split and pitches in an extremely negative run environment. Workload is an issue for a price above $9K on DraftKings. His 10.6 SwStr% is still above average, but suggests the strikeout rate may not remain that high. Pablo Lopez has a nearly league average strikeout rate and an above average swinging strike one through eight starts. He’s completed six innings in five of those starts, recording at least a sixth inning out in seven of them. He has allowed eight HRs and his 8.5% Barrels/BBE is one of the higher numbers on the board, but his 86.4 mph aEV is one of the lowest, along with a 52.1 GB%. He faces the Yankees tonight, but does so in a great park where they lose their DH. Lopez is just $5.1K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Kevin Gausman, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Pablo Lopez A Discount, Even On A Pitch Count
The more I look at this FanDuel salary on Snell, the more I’m ending up there. Even assuming a somewhat limited pitch count, being at home against this Royals team is tough to pass up at $9,600. I still think it’s slightly safer to go with Tanaka, but even he isn’t that likely to pitch deep, and Snell has the higher per inning upside with a KC team that has a projected lineup with a 24.4% K rate and a silly low .108 ISO and .291 wOBA. It’s only $600 between Snell and Tanaka, but if you can use that salary I would go with Snell.
Low Owned on the West Coast
I think there’s a chance a team playing on the West Coast wins GPPs on Tuesday night as three of the six West Coast pitchers own the lowest SwStr%‘s on the slate – Jurado (4.2%), Anderson (6.4%), and Leake (7.4%). The A’s have the highest implied run total of the trio but the Astros have my favorite combo of upside and low ownership. There’s a chance Jose Altuve will be activated before Tuesday’s game which helps strengthen Houston’s lineup and adds some power + speed upside.
Other tagged players: Evan Gattis, George Springer, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve Dominance on a Leash
If you told me last year that Blake Snell and the Rays would be a -270 favorite at any point this season I would have laughed at you. But here we are. Snell is working his way back from the disabled list and is unlikely to top 100 pitches on Tuesday night but he’s put up 27.3 and 25.5 DK pt performances his last two starts in 47 and 76 pitches respectively. Snell’s home matchup against the Royals is a good one as PlateIQ has their projected lineup versus LHP with a 24.4% strikeout rate, .291 wOBA, and a measly .108 ISO. If there weren’t still pitch count limitations here Snell would likely be chalk on this full 15-game slate.
High end pitchers all have their drawbacks tonight
Four pitchers reach the $10K price point on at least one site tonight, but only two are above that on both sites. Patrick Corbin is probably the best overall pitcher on the board. Among those with more than seven starts, he leads in strikeout rate (30.7%), SIERA (2.91) and xwOBA (.288). The Angels have just a 20.5 K% vs LHP, but still just an 86 wRC+ against them and are still without their MVP bat. The most interesting pitcher among the high priced arm is $10.2K on either site, but just the fourth highest priced on DraftKings in a great spot in Miami (80 wRC+, 8.6 HR/FB at home). It’s a large park upgrade that helps solve Tanaka’s largest issue. His 25.3 K% is fourth highest among those with more than seven starts. Jose Berrios has been absolutely terrible over his last four starts (19.1 IP – 12 ER – 2 HR – 14 BB – 21 K). He’s allowed at least three runs in 12 of his 25 starts this year, but has also completed seven innings in just as many this season and is in a high upside spot against the White Sox (19+ K-BB% at home and vs RHP). Blake Snell is second most expensive on DraftKings and could be the top pitcher on the board against the Royals (77 wRC+, 16.3 K-BB%, 8.2 HR/FB vs LHP). He’s allowed one run in 14 innings since returning from the DL, striking out 15 of 48 batters, but has maxed out at 79 pitches last time out. Can players expect more than six innings and 90 pitches out of him tonight.
Other tagged players: Patrick Corbin, Blake Snell, Jose Berrios Low Owned Despite Good Matchup
I was surprised when I started to fill out today’s expert survey and saw Berrios as a repeat answer to “Which high-priced SP will you have little or not exposure to in tournaments”. Berrios is pitching against the White Sox, right? PlateIQ has the White Sox projected lineup with a 25% strikeout rate which is one of the whiff-heaviest lineups of the slate. Add into the mix that Berrios is actually a talented pitcher (3.77 SIERA) with strong strikeout stuff himself (24.7 K%, 11.1 SwStr%) and I’m failing to see why he is a fade here outside of poor recent performance. The thought of any pitcher facing the White Sox being low owned makes me excited and that excitement only increases when that pitcher is actually talented. I’ll be overweight on Berrios in GPPs.
Nice Value In This Matchup
When looking for a cheaper option tonight, Sam Gaviglio makes sense against the Blue Jays. He struggled in his last start against the Royals, but he’s in a good spot to bounce back at home. The Baltimore offense has a .138 ISO with a .299 wOBA and a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. They have a couple more lefties now with Mullins and Villar, but are still projected to have six righties. Gaviglio has a .339 wOBA with a .187 ISO and a 26.7% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. There is always downside when you’re looking at his numbers against lefties, but he is one of the better options in this price range today.
Not Just Another Prospect
Michael Kopech is one of the top prospects in all of baseball and will be making his Major League debut tonight against the Twins. He throws in the high 90s and has an above average slider. His issue has been command and walks, but he dialed back his fastball in AA last season and the walks decreased some. I worry about the walks here, but the strikeout upside is what I’m playing him for in this spot. In 126.1 innings in AAA this season, Kopech has a 31.3% strikeout rate with a 12.7% swinging strike rate. Meanwhile, projected starters for the Twins have a 21.7% strikeout rate with a .158 ISO and a .324 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Going Right Back Here Tonight
The Brewers were a top target last night, and the lefties have an even better matchup tonight against Sal Romano. Two of the big three lefties homered last night and we can look for more with Romano allowing a .220 ISO and .391 wOBA on 13.8% K and 42% hard hits. The corner infield and outfield positions are packed tonight, which makes the second base eligibility of Travis Shaw stand out here. He has a big .289 ISO on 40% hard hits and 47% FB along with a solid 80% contact rate against righties making him a strong play in all formats.
Prime Bounce-Back Spot
The A’s scored nine runs last night against Bartolo Colon and the Rangers, but Olson was basically uninvolved. Tonight is a great spot for him to bounce back and there’s a good chance that we’ll get to target him at lower ownership. Ariel Jurado has one of the lowest strikeout rates in all of baseball. He does have a high ground ball rate, but the A’s lineup is loaded with fly-ball hitters. On the season, Olson owns a .393 xwOBA and a .244 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Stacking up the Lefties in Milwaukee
Even though the Brewers didn’t quite live up to expectations last night, we should not hesitate to go right back to the well. They draw an elite matchup against Sal Romano, who has been dreadful against left-handed hitters. On the season, he has allowed a .395 xwOBA, a 43% hard contact rate, and a strikeout rate of only 14%. This plays right into the hands of Christian Yelich, who boasts a .384 xwOBA and a .200 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Baby, Baby, Oooh
When the matchups are in Shane Bieber’s favor, his extreme strike throwing can work out. But heading into Boston to face a team than ranks at the top of the league in all offensive categories against righties, he’s going to need a lot more good luck than usual. The top of the lineup outfielders are all in play, but at their salaries it will be tough to fit them. Enter Mitch Moreland, with a too low FD salary of $3,200. Bieber has allowed a scary 48% hard hit rate with no ground ball ability to lefties, resulting in a .399 wOBA against. Moreland hits in an ideal lineup spot and is an easy way to gain access to a high end offense on this slate.