DFS Alerts
Squaring off against a Rookie
The Dodgers are always one of my favorite targets when playing at home and they are facing a rookie pitcher that is only making his fifth career major league start. We are dealing with a small sample size, but Gomber has allowed a .370+ xwOBA and a 37%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Justin Turner, Manny Machado, and Matt Kemp all boast a .415+ xwOBA against southpaws this season and I expect them to fly under the radar.
Value bats against a vulnerable pitcher and terrible bullpen
While stackers against Andrew Cashner can often be frustrated by his bend, but not often entirely break results, batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season and the Baltimore bullpen is the worst in the majors by FIP (5.89) and K-BB (5.8%) over the last month. The Blue Jays (5.13) are the lowest of three teams above five implied runs tonight and certainly a lineup with some value without a single bat above $4.3K on DraftKings or $3.3K on FanDuel. Curtis Granderson (111 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) tops the lineup with a 239 wRC+ and 53.9 Hard% over the last week. Justin Smoak (128 wRC+, .239 ISO) is the top overall bat in this lineup and probably a fine value tonight, but players can opt for Kendrys Morales (104 wRC+, .181 ISO) in the cleanup spot to save even more salary.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales
Kevin Gausman scratched Monday; Bryse Wilson will start in his place
Gausman will have his previously scheduled start pushed back until Tuesday and consequentially won’t pitch for the Atlanta Braves in Monday’s road matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates due to an unspecified reason, though it appears to simply be a managerial decision. He’ll be replaced on the mound by Bryse Wilson, who, like Gausman, is a right-handed pitcher, so his presence on the bump shouldn’t alter the confirmed lineup of the Pirates in any significant fashion, if at all. That said, still be sure to double check out the Starting Lineups page and projections in LinuepHQ for any notable changes prior to submitting lineups for tonight’s main slate.
As reported by: the Atlanta Braves via Twitter Other tagged players: Bryse Wilson
Hot bat in an interesting spot against a debuting lefty
The White Sox are a sizable dog with just a 4.18 implied run line against the debuting Stephen Gonsalves in Minnesota. The rookie lefty did have some control problems with a walk rate above 13% at AAA this season, but has decreased that to single digits over his last four starts with scouting reports suggesting league average starter upside. There are a couple of interesting bats in the middle of the Chicago lineup though, due to their proficiency against LHP over the last calendar year. Jose Abreu (139 wRC+, .276 ISO) has a 208 wRC+ over the last week as well. Avisail Garcia (172 wRC+, .250 ISO) has even better numbers against southpaws at a much lower price, but also in a smaller sample and has been going in the opposite direction over the last seven days (17 wRC+, 14.3 Hard%).
Other tagged players: Avisail Garcia Better recently, but LHBs still crush him
The Twins have an enormous 5.32 run line against Lucas Giolito that’s second highest on the board tonight. Giolito has struck out 20 of his last 77 batters and has just a .326 xwOBA over the last month, but going by his full season numbers, LHBs have thrashed him for a .374 wOBA with an xwOBA 32 points higher, while RHBs have been about league average against him (.324). Some attention has to be paid to the top LHB in this lineup, Eddie Rosario (138 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). Joe Mauer (102 wRC+, .112 ISO) has a 221 wRC+ and 58.8 Hard% over the last week. Jake Cave (106 wRC+, .174 ISO) costs just $3.2K on DraftKings and a full $1K less on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Joe Mauer, Jake Cave Marco? Polo!
Estrada has not been good this season. In fact, he has been quite bad. In 21 starts, he owns a 5.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that relies on strikeouts and pop-ups for his success. The problem is that he hasn’t had many of those this season. With that said, it’s hard to argue with a matchup against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .301 with a strikeout rate of 24%. We’ve been streaming pitchers against Baltimore for the last month, so why stop now?
Top Pitcher of the Slate
job of inducing soft contact this season. His biggest weakness has been left-handed hitters, but I’m not overly concerned about that tonight against the Giants. While their projected lineup has six lefties in it, one is the pitcher and two more (Alen Hanson and Steven Duggar) have an xwOBA below .260 against right-handed pitching this season. The best part is that after Wheeler’s mediocre start his last time out, his price has come down to a very playable level.
Potential for low ownership in a great run environment due to a tough matchup
Corey Kluber’s presence on the mound at Fenway has the Red Sox down to a mere 4.05 implied runs, around a full run lower than their usual line at home. While still one of the top pitchers on the board, Kluber hasn’t been as dynamic this season and although it may be cooler with a breeze blowing in, Fenway is still the most positive run environment on the board. If players can get Mookie Betts (151 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and J.D. Martinez (197 wRC+, .401 ISO) at greatly reduced ownership at home, it’s something they would have to seriously consider. While Kluber really doesn’t have a platoon split, it’s RHBs that do have a reasonable .302 xwOBA against him this season. Xander Bogaerts (125 wRC+, .266 ISO) could be worth a look as well. He has a lineup leading 227 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Corey Kluber Affordable lineup with high implied run line
Rays bats would appear to have some value tonight. Especially if considering paying up for Gerrit Cole. Jorge Lopez was a reliever at both AAA and the majors for Milwaukee before being included in the Moustakas trade. The Royals are attempting to convert him into a starter, something his scouting reports don’t necessarily believe will be successful. His first start for the Royals did not go smoothly (4.2 IP – 6 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 3 K against Toronto). The Rays have a 4.64 implied run line that’s well behind the top four teams, but still a top five mark tonight. The Kansas City bullpen, a major weakness for most the season, has improved to something near the middle of the pack over the last month (4.38 FIP, 12.3 K-BB%). While Lopez has a 90 point reverse split in his wOBA in work for the Brewers plus his start for the Royals this year, xwOBA closes the gap, but still increases both numbers above .375. Each of the first six batters in the lineup for the Rays is above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year. Jake Bauers (112 wRC+, .214 ISO), Ji-Man Choi (122 wRC+, .239 ISO) and Tommy Pham (119 wRC+, .196 ISO) are the ones above a .140 ISO among that group. Only Mallex Smith (112 wRC+, .124 ISO) is above $4K on DraftKings with no Tampa Bay bat even reaching $3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Jakob Bauers, Tommy Pham, Jorge Lopez, Mallex Smith Daily Bullpen Alert: Attack spots in Oakland and Toronto
Three bullpens are above a five FIP over the last month. All three are on the board tonight and all two are in attackable spots. Two of them are facing each other in Toronto. The Orioles (5.89 FIP, 5.8 K-BB% last 30 days) are in Blue Jays (5.05 FIP, 15 K-BB%) are in Toronto with Andrew Cashner and Marco Estrada as starters. The Toronto bullpen does have strong peripherals with a high HR rate and the Baltimore offense may not have many rosterable candidates. The Texas bullpen (5.42 FIP, 12.7 K-BB%) gets a park upgrade, but face a hard hitting Oakland lineup behind a pitcher (Bartolo Colon), who was scratched on Sunday due to a back issue. Jorge Lopez makes his second start for the Royals (4.38 FIP, 12.3 K-BB%) a greatly improved bullpen over the last month. Austin Gomber makes his fifth start for the Cardinals (4.35 FIP, 6.8 K-BB%), who have the second lowest bullpen K-BB% over the last month. No other starter is averaging fewer than 5.1 innings per start tonight.
A couple of the higher upside arms tonight meet in New York
Zack Wheeler was not at his best in Baltimore last time out, but still allowed just one run in five innings. His 24.7 K% over the last month is fourth best on the board. His 11.1 SwStr% or the season is third best. He also has the lowest aEV on the board as well (85.1 mph). He’s getting expensive, but has a great matchup (Giants 77 wRC+, 17.1 K-BB% on the road, 15.8 K-BB%, 9.9 HR/FB vs RHP, 33 wRC+, 22.3 K-BB%, 2.5 HR/FB last seven days) in one of the most negative run environments on the board. Alex Wood doesn’t have the highest ceiling, but one of the higher floors on the slate. He’d quietly gone over 100 pitches in three of four starts before his most recent outing. He’s allowed more than three ERs just three times this year and pitches in the most negative run environment on the board. Chris Archer’s 13.3 SwStr% is second best among regular starters tonight. His 89.6 mph aEV is highest on the board, but the Braves don’t have a lot of power (11 HR/FB vs RHP). The problem they present is a lack of strikeouts though (20.5% vs RHP). Archer does cost less than $8K thought. Kevin Gausman has exactly two strikeouts in five of his last eight starts and the Pirates have just a 19.6 K% vs RHP, but considering there are no high strikeout pitchers facing high strikeout offenses and that he’s allowed just six runs in 19 innings behind an improved defense since being traded, the little upside he may have may be worth $7.5K or less. Derek Holland has the fourth best strikeout rate on the board (24.1%). The Mets are the hottest offense on the board (154 wRC+ last seven days), but have just an 8.5 HR/FB at home and 77 wRC+ with a 25.5 K% vs LHP.
Other tagged players: Derek Holland, Alex Wood, Chris Archer, Kevin Gausman High priced pitchers in difficult spots tonight
Gerrit Cole is the most expensive pitcher on the board. He also leads all of tonight’s pitchers in strikeout rate (34.9%) by more than 10 full points, SIERA (2.86) by nearly one half run, and xwOBA (.288). He’s in Seattle, facing a lineup with a 20.1 K% vs RHP. He’s faced them three times, going at least 6.2 innings in each start, but striking out just five in two of those three starts. He’s easily the top overall arm on the board tonight and possibly a reasonable value. Corey Kluber is second in each metric (24.8 K%, 3.32 SIERA, .293 xwOBA). He’s gone at least seven innings in five of six starts, but finds himself at Fenway tonight (Red Sox 117 wRC+ and sub-19 K% at home and vs RHP). Rick Porcello is the only other pitcher on the slate reaching $10K on either site. He has a 29.2 K% over the last month, but just an 8.3 SwStr% behind it and has to face a difficult Cleveland lineup at Fenway.
Other tagged players: Corey Kluber, Rick Porcello Little To No Strikeout Ability
Jake Cave has 129 PAs against righties on the season, and when he makes contact, he usually hits the ball well. He has a 26.4% strikeout rate on the season, so I look to play him more against pitchers that have low strikeout rates. Lucas Giolito has a 12.3% strikeout rate with a 13.2% walk rate against left-handed hitters this season, and he also has a .379 wOBA with a .201 ISO against lefties. With Cave’s power upside and the little strikeout ability from Giolito, I think he’s a great tournament option at his price tag tonight.
Really High Hard-Hit Rates On Both Sides
It sounds like the back issue for Bartolo Colon wasn’t serious, so he’s expecting to take the hill against Oakland tonight. The Athletics are a top three stack for me tonight, and I don’t expect them to be too popular at home. Colon has a .356 wOBA with a .279 ISO and a 43.4% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters this season. Meanwhile, Stephen Piscotty has been a lot better against righties throughout his career. He has a .194 ISO with a .424 CXwOBA and a 45.8% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. With Colon’s inability to strike out hitters, and all of this projected hard contact, Piscotty is one of my favorite plays on the slate tonight.
West Coast Goodness
The A’s will face an old man with a sore back (me?) tonight in Oakland. No, it’s not me, but it may as well be. Bartolo Colon throws strikes, but that’s all he has has left. There is no strikeout ability and no ability to limit hard hits or induce ground balls to either side of the plate. There is not a single Oakland batter over $3,500 on FD tonight, and all of Lowrie, Chapman, Davis and Olson are prime plays in all formats. The second base eligibility of Lowrie make him the most likely candidate for cash games, but feel free to play all of these guys early and often in all formats.
