DFS Alerts
Speedster Back Atop The Lineup
I miss those days of Billy Hamilton getting on base and wreaking havoc on the base paths. Apparently, so do the Reds. Hamilton was re-inserted back to the top of the lineup this week, perhaps as a way to get him going and add some more speed at the top. He’s facing Andrew Suarez today, who has been having a solid rookie season but has struggled against right-handers. On the year, Suarez is allowing a .295 batting average and .842 OPS to righties. 16 of his 17 home runs allowed have also been by right-handed batters. In my mind he easily has one of the higher upsides of all the lead-off hitters given his speed.
Lead-off Hitter on the Cheap
It doesn’t feel great trying to pick on Jameson Taillon, but Tommy La Stella will be batting lead-off for the Cubs and he’s dirt cheap across the industry. He’ll hold the platoon advantage over Taillon and is hitting .308 against right-handed pitchers this season. La Stella doesn’t possess much power as shown by his 0 home runs this season, but he also doesn’t need to do much to return value. Given his lack of power and speed I prefer La Stella more in cash games over tournaments because I don’t know how much upside exists here, but he opens up so much salary elsewhere for your team.
A Fine Matchup for This Value Hurler
Jake Odorizzi is never a sexy DFS option, but this profiles as a solid matchup for him. Odorizzi is a massive fly ball pitcher who struggles with the home run ball at times, but he gets to face a Tigers team that basically has no power and can’t hit right-handed pitching. If I had to hand-pick one matchup where I want to target Odorizzi, this is the one. He does have some strikeout upside, and the price tag is really cheap. With this being such a poor slate for arms, I can definitely get on board with Odorizzi as a viable SP #2 in all game formats today.
A High Upside Arm on a Weak Slate for Pitching
It’s an ugly slate for pitching for the second straight day, and there’s just not a ton to love. Clevinger gets the nod almost by default with his matchup against Baltimore. His fly ball ways should continue to allow him to pitch to an ERA that is better than his advanced metrics would suggest, especially in this matchup. The 3.38 ERA isn’t necessarily a mirage, and it has been over a month since he has allowed more than three runs in a start. Fire him up today.
A Fine Value at the Top of the Order
Most people ignore the Rays these days, but I want to at least mention Mallex Smith. He has quietly been rock solid for the Rays of late, and he has found himself regularly back in the leadoff spot. He is now hitting over .300 for the year with a wOBA of .349, and he gets to face an average RHP in Hector Velasquez today. There’s speed upside here, and Smith has been taking very good at bats lately. He’s a fine value on this slate as a one-off bat.
Pricing Inefficiency
It appears that both FanDuel and DraftKings priced Tampa Bay hitters with the expectation that Chris Sale would be on the mound today for the Red Sox. However, with Sale sent on the DL, the Rays get a much friendlier matchup against Hector Velazquez. Velazquez has put up a strong 2.77 ERA over his 61.2 IP this season but advanced run prevention metrics aren’t kind to him (4.07 FIP, 4.62 xFIP, 4.51 SIERA). Hector isn’t a skilled enough pitcher to generate swings and misses (7.9 SwStr%) and the Rays shouldn’t have any problems putting the ball in play at hitter friendly Fenway. This isn’t a matchup that I would be looking to attack too aggressively if the Rays hitters were fully priced but the pricing inefficiency has me looking to roster 2-3 Rays hitters in cash games.
Other tagged players: Jakob Bauers
Hard Hitting Lefties
I’m unlikely to prioritize Mike Moustakas in what is a packed slate for hitting but I would be remiss if I didn’t point out Gant’s struggles versus left handed hitters. Gant is allowing a ton of hard contact to left handed hitters this season – lefties have a 59.2% hard-hit rate against him. We’re dealing with a small sample at this point but his career stats (also small sample) seem to back up the idea that Gant really struggles versus lefties. Moustakas is my favorite lefty bat to roster on the Brewers but I like the idea of stacking Brewers lefties together in GPPs in what will surely be a low owned stack.
A Sneaky Top Selection in the Outfield
Jacob Turner is getting another shot in the Detroit rotation in a lost season, but he certainly doesn’t deserve it at this point. He was once a top prospect for the Tigers and Marlins, but those days have come and gone. He had poor minor league numbers this year and got pounded in his first MLB start of the year against the Angels. Eddie Rosario is your top option here, as he holds an elite profile against RHP this year with a .378 wOBA and .294 ISO, so lock him in as an elite play in all formats this afternoon.
Top Hitter on the Slate
The Yankees face a weak left-handed pitcher today, so you know what to do. Let’s start with the boss. Giancarlo Stanton is hitting .347 with a .458 wOBA, 195 wRC+, 1.118 OPS, and .356 ISO against LHP this season. Absurd. He is my top overall hitter on the slate. Play the man.
Paying Down for SP2
I don’t like this anymore than you do but Jake Odorizzi seems to be the stand out value if paying down for SP2 on Sunday’s slate. This is a matchup play more than anything but Odorizzi has shown some decent strikeout potential this year with a 23.5% strikeout rate. PlateIQ has Detroit’s projected lineup with an otherworldly poor .280 wOBA and an attackable 22.2% strikeout rate. Additionally, Odorizzi has strong win equity against the Tigers.
Usually I don't like stacking against pitchers with low walk rates, today I make an exception
The argument for stacking against Colon has been an interesting one throughout the DFS community for the past couple years.. The ownership is usually high and stacking against a pitcher who almost never walks anyone is usually a bad idea.. However the massive power Colon allows (especially to righties) coupled with 93 degree heat, a 13% k rate and a lousy, beat up bullpen behind him are just a few reasons I love the Angels stack tonight.. Colon has a allowed a .291 ISO to righties this year and these Angels have always hit him hard. Especially Pujols and Simmons. Coming off a big game I expect LAA to be fairly popular but there are so many good stacks I don’t think they will carry the ownership they should. I love everyone in this lineup 1 through 9 as one offs, a full or mini stack.. I will ride or die with the Angels of Anaheim today and I suggest you do the same.
Other tagged players: David Fletcher, Kole Calhoun, Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani, Francisco Arcia, Andrelton Simmons, Taylor Ward
Skill-Set + Matchup Combo
Sunday’s main slate lacks elite pitching options – JA Happ leads the way in terms of strikeout rate (26.5%) and is the only option with a strikeout rate north of 25% on the slate. Clevinger’s strikeout rate sits at 23.8% but he’s shown a slight improvement on that over his last handful of starts. Despite an only slightly above league average strikeout rate, Clevinger gives you the best combination of skill-set + matchup on the slate. Cleveland hosts a Baltimore Orioles offense that is one of the worst in the league – PlateIQ has the O’s projected lineup with a 25.4% strikeout rate and .306 wOBA versus right handed pitching. Clevinger is my SP1.
Not Fair
Lol. I’m not sure this one is even fair. You bring in a below average lefty to Yankee stadium that can’t miss any bats (14.5 K%, 6.5 SwStr%) and expect him to try to get Giancarlo Stanton out. Giancarlo has an insane 59.3% hard-hit rate against southpaws this season and has always had tremendous power against them throughout his career (.341 ISO). Stanton has hit a HR in back-to-back games and it would feel like a let down if he didn’t homer again on Sunday.
Start of Saturday's LAA-TEX game will be delayed due to inclement weather
The start of the matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers on Saturday night will be delayed due to lightning and inclement weather currently in the area. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Rangers have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. Since starting pitchers in this contest aren’t likely to be heavily targeted options in daily fantasy formats, the late start obviously doesn’t do much to add to their overall fantasy appeal, and as Kevin Roth detailed in his updated forecast, hitters from this game shouldn’t be avoided given the ideal hitting conditions and unlikeliness of a late postponement.
As reported by: John Blake via Twitter
Severe splits of Martin Perez should benefit an Angels lineup consisting of eight RHB
Perez is coming off of a brutal road start against the New York Yankees his last time out, surrendering seven earned runs and two home runs in just five innings pitched. Tonight, he’ll be tasked with shutting down a righty-heavy Los Angeles Angels lineup that receives a significant ballpark upgrade heading to Globe Life Park in Arlington, which, in the sweltering Texas heat, has facilitated the most runs and second-most home runs in all of Major League Baseball this season. When combining those park factors and a matchup against a struggling Martin Perez, it’s easy to understand why the Angels are presently tied with the Washington Nationals for the highest implied team run total (5.6) on Saturday’s main slate. Not only is Perez inducing fewer ground balls against right-handed batters than left-handed batters, albeit, a respectable 48.2% rate on the year, but he’s also giving up substantially more hard contact (45.0% HH%), which has led to a lofty 0.429 wOBA and 5.32 xFIP to righties. This makes the Angels righties the clear preferred targets for tournament formats, though with Mike Trout still sidelined with an injury, Andrelton Simmons is the only right-handed batter with a respectable wOBA (0.373) versus left-handed pitchers this season. However, David Fletcher has flashed occasional upside in his time since becoming a regular in the starting lineup, and both Justin Upton (43.5% Hard%, 0.258 ISO, 0.453 xwOBA) and Rene Rivera (40.0% Hard%, 0.236 ISO, 0.499 xwOBA) sport significantly better numbers against lefties when extending the sample size to include the 2017 season, making them worthy stack candidates to pair with Simmons and the other Angels at the top of the batting order this evening.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Justin Upton, Rene Rivera, David Fletcher, Martin Perez