DFS Alerts
DFS Relevance In A Terrible Game
If we’re trying to get Gerrit Cole into cash games tonight, especially on DK/FDRFT, we won’t be able to jam in all the Milwaukee bats, and will need a few salary savers. Enter the Royals and Rays squaring off in less-than-thrilling real life battle, but with a good bit to like on the Tampa side against a pitcher in Jorge Lopez who has shown absolutely nothing at the major league level and backed by a bad bullpen. On FD, all the Tampa batters are a steal, but notably Jake Bauers and Tommy Pham in the middle of the lineup. On DK/FDFRT, Bauers is the prime salary option and dual position eligible with his .214 ISO and 43% hard hit rate against right-handed pitching.
Game Stack
All season I have been more likely to stack against Chase Anderson than to roster him and that remains the case on Monday night. The Reds are my favorite “sneaky” stack of the night as they’ll square off against homer prone Anderson (1.67 HR/9, 15.2 HR/FB%) at Miller Park. Even with the loss of Joey Votto from the lineup, the middle of this Reds order does provide some pop (especially Suarez) and the top of the order can give you some stolen base upside in Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza. The Reds are a low probability stack but will see minuscule ownership. If you’re not sold on a full-out Reds stack, look closely at a full out game stack and use some Reds hitters to help fill in your Brewers stacks.
Other tagged players: Eugenio Suarez, Tucker Barnhart, Preston Tucker, Mason Williams
Love The Upside At This Price
So, when digging into Gonsalves, his numbers were decent, but that doesn’t stop be from liking the big right-handed power bats for the White Sox. Garcia is fairly priced across all sites tonight, and I love his upside in this matchup. He has a .286 ISO with a .519 CXwOBA against lefties this season. His average exit velocity is 94mph, and his hard-hit rate is at 52.8%. This young pitcher making his Major League debut has his work cut out tonight against Garcia.
Limited Upside But A Nice Floor
There is nothing special about the numbers for Marco Estrada this season, but when looking at this slate, he makes some sense as an SP2. Baltimore is one of the worst teams in baseball, and they’re even worse against right-handed pitching. With top end arms like Wheeler and Cole, paying down at SP2 makes sense to fit in some of these bats in good spots. The projected starters for Baltimore have a .129 ISO with a .292 wOBA and a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Estrada has struggled against righties and lefties at times this season, but as a massive fly ball pitcher against a team with limited power, he should get some easy outs in this game and return some value at this price point.
Brewing Up Runs
After two magical and outlier starts off the DL, Homer Bailey has gone right back to being the jabroni he’s been for the past two years. He has low strikeouts with a high hard hit rate to both right and left-handed batters, allowing a .210 ISO and .383 wOBA to righties and a .244 ISO and .385 wOBA to lefties. Tack on a bad bullpen in a good hitting park, and this is the clear top offense of the night. You can play anyone in this lineup, but I’d like to start with the fairly priced left-handed power of Mike Moustakas and Travis Shaw. Both of these Brewers lefties have low strikeouts, with high hard hit and fly ball ability leading to a .230 ISO and .348 wOBA for Moustakas and a .282 ISO and .379 wOBA for Shaw. If you’re not paying for Cole in cash games, I would be prioritizing the Brewers bats, and in tournaments, these are elite plays either all together or on their own.
Other tagged players: Mike Moustakas Cash In Here
Andrew Cashner has been good more often than he’s been bad, but the skills are so far below average that I’ve got to get some of the Blue Jays in my lineups tonight. Over the past month, Cashner is all the way down at a ridiculous 8.6% K rate along with 9.4% walks, and he’s simply survived from a .280 BABIP and 3.3% HR/FB rate that cannot continue forever. Even if he continues to be OK in real life, the Blue Jays lefty 1B/DH combo of Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales has a lot of upside at fair salaries. Cashner has allowed a .216 ISO and .356 wOBA to lefties this season, while Smoak has a big 50% fly ball rate leading to a .250 ISO along with solid plate skills giving him a .385 wOBA and .378 OBP.
Happy or Sad
I am not sure if I should be happy or sad that this game isn’t being played in Arlington. On the one hand run expectation would certainly be higher in Arlington but on the other hand hitters from this game would be a lot chalkier. I’m salivating at the thought of discounted ownership in a game where Bartolo Colon and Mike Fiers are pitching but am also envisioning all of the fly balls caught on the warning track. Regardless, I will have exposure to both offenses in this game in GPPs as the reality is both teams are facing pitchers that are well below average, allow a lot of contact, and struggle with keeping the ball in the yard. A’s hitters are my preferred target in this game but I do love playing power guys like Joey Gallo in this spot as he is virtually unaffected by the negative park shift – he hits the ball so far that it’s going to be a HR no matter which stadium he’s playing in.
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Marcus Semien, Jed Lowrie, Joey Gallo No Fountain of Youth
There was actually a point this season where people thought Homer Bailey had somehow found the fountain of youth and turned into an above average pitcher. 8.2 innings, 21 hits, and 10 earned runs later and I think it’s safe to say that’s not the case. Homer Bailey is simply not a very skilled pitcher at this point in his career and he has been getting shelled most of this season – he’s only generating soft contact on 12.4% of batted balls. This is a great spot for a Brewers offense that comes in with one of the highest implied run totals on the slate (5.4).
Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw High Strikeouts, Zero Power
The way the slate is shaping up we may see Marco Estrada come in as semi-chalky at SP2 on multi-starting pitcher sites. That’s less of a testament to Estrada’s skill-set than the matchup he finds himself in as the Blue Jays host a brutal Baltimore offensive. With Mark Trumbo expected to head to the DL, PlateIQ has the O’s projected lineup with a 26% strikeout rate against RHP and virtually zero power with a .129 ISO. While I’m not high on Estrada individually, I do think he should be able to work his way through this terrible lineup and pay of his cheap price tag.
Top Three Upside
Monday’s main slate has one pitcher with a strikeout rate over 25% this season (Gerrit Cole). Chris Archer’s 24.5 K% comes in as the third highest strikeout rate of Monday’s probable starters and his 3.80 SIERA is the fourth best despite owning the seventh highest ERA. Archer has struggled his way through 2018 but a change from the AL to NL should benefit the veteran righty even if that hasn’t been the case through his first three starts with the Pirates (tbf, two of those starts were COL and MIN). A matchup against the Braves isn’t favorable for Archer but he still has a top three upside on this slate despite being priced as SP8 on DK and SP6 on FD.
If Not Paying Up
Getting Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler together is asking too much, but if you’re not going to get up to Cole in your DK/FDRFT cash games tonight, Wheeler would be my SP1. In his last 10 starts, Wheeler has reached seven innings six times, struck out at least seven batters seven times and allowed a total of 18 runs in 65 innings, good for a 2.49 ERA. He’s been even better over the last five starts, with a 30:6 K:BB ratio and just five runs allowed in 32 innings. He now ranks 2nd of all starters in the league in soft hit %, sitting in between two guys named Sale and Scherzer. It’s an above average matchup for a guy who is at the top of his game right now.
The Only Ace On The Slate
Gerrit Cole is in a tier of his own tonight, with a 34.9% K rate that is a full 10% higher than the next closest arm on this slate. The only other real life ace, Corey Kluber, has a trip to Fenway Park, while Cole gets a decent matchup in Seattle. On FD, the salary on Cole is way too low and he is an absolute must play in cash games and a very tough fade in tournaments. The salary on DK/FDRFT makes it a tougher call, but he is certainly the best option available and if you can find teh hitter values, he should be the cash game anchor. He won’t be an all-in tournament play on the two-pitcher sites, but this is the highest upside pitcher by a huge margin tonight.
Jacob Turner scratched Sunday; Buck Farmer will start in his place
Turner will not be recalled from the minors as originally planned and consequentially won’t make his previously scheduled start for the Detroit Tigers in Sunday’s road matchup against the Minnesota Twins due to an unspecified reason, though it appears to simply be an organizational decision. He’ll be replaced on the mound by Buck Farmer, who, like Turner, is a right-handed pitcher, so his presence on the bump won’t alter the projected lineup of the Twins hitters in any significant fashion. That said, still be sure to double check out the projections in LineupHQ and the Starting Lineups page for any notable changes prior to submitting lineups for today’s main slate.
As reported by: Chris McCosky via Twitter Other tagged players: Buck Farmer
Speed At The Bottom Of This Lineup
Eric Young Jr. will probably go over-looked since he’s normally batting at the bottom of the Angels lineup, but he still makes for a fantastic tournament option. This game will take place in 94 degree heat and feature opposing pitcher Yovani Gallardo, who has an 11.6 BB% and allowing 35% hard contact. If Young Jr. can get on, it wouldn’t shock me if he used his speed to swipe a base. He’s only a few seasons removed from swiping 30 bags, so the speed is definitely there.
Cheap Veteran Bat In Solid Spot
It’s never exciting to roster Alex Gordon of the Royals, and I suspect this game will go overlooked on today’s slate. But the fact of the matter is Alex Gordon is cheap and in a good ballpark for power. He’ll also hold the platoon-advantage over Reynaldo Lopez, who is allowing 1.28 HR/9. Gordon is a cheap dart-throw if you need to save some salary without sacrificing a decent game environment.