DFS Alerts
Mini-Stacking overlooked game out west
There are a lot of good options to stack or mini stack tonight and I’m going to recommend an Arizona team I think will be somewhat overlooked. With 5 hitters carrying a .259 ISO vs the opposite hand the D Backs are in a great spot at what should be low ownership against Richard tonight in San Diego. While the ballpark is far from ideal it isn’t nearly as bad as most think rating about average in the summer months for righty power. Tonight will be warm and humid which should help things as well. I don’t think I would go crazy and 5 man stack this one but I do love picking 3 or 4 of these Diamondbacks as a mini stack against Richard and the Padres this evening. In order I would prioritize Pollock, Goldy, Marte, Souza then Ahmed. All make for nice 1 offs if you don’t want to stack or mini stack this one.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Steven Souza, A.J. Pollock, Nick Ahmed
Start of Friday's CHC-PIT game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Pirates have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Cole Hamels not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, pitchers and hitters from this contest are probably best reserved for tournament formats and gamers that are largely risk averse may be better off avoiding this game altogether with the potential of a late postponement, albeit, not the likeliest outcome.
As reported by: Mark Gonzales via Twitter
These three RHBs are too good against southpaws to ignore
Joey Lucchesi is an above average pitcher by most metrics (25.1 K%, 3.79 SIERA) and he’s pitching in one of the most negative run environments on the board tonight, but the middle of this Arizona lineup is just so potent against LHP, that they still need to be seriously considered tonight. A.J. Pollock (141 wRC+, .311 ISO), Paul Goldschmidt (157 wRC+, .307 ISO) and Steven Souza (163 wRC+, .286 ISO) all have dominant numbers against southpaws over the last calendar year. All are above a 40% hard hit rate as well, while Lucchesi has allowed RHBs a 42.5 Hard%.
Other tagged players: Steven Souza, Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Lucchesi
A lengthy Friday night forecast with some risk
One of Kevin’s longest forecasts of the season is updated. There’s a chance of rain in many plays and a few with some risk. Read the entire forecast on the Weather page. Premium subscribers will get updates on all these games from Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Three HRs, seven walks and two strikeouts in two starts with a terrible bullpen behind him
Drew Hutchison has started two games for the Rangers in August. He’s allowed nine runs in 8.1 innings with three HRs, seven walks and two strikeouts. The Rangers have one of the worst bullpens in perhaps the most positive run environment in play tonight. The Angels kind of just stopped after scoring five in the first last night, but this is another spot where a Trout-less offense should shine. Kole Calhoun (110 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Justin Upton (137 wRC+, .245 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (171 wRC+, .312 ISO) are your top bats here. David Fletcher (99 wRC+, .087 ISO) costs just $3.3K on DK in the two spot.
Other tagged players: Kole Calhoun, Justin Upton, David Fletcher, Drew Hutchison Five LHBs above a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP in a great park
Odrisamer Despaigne may not believe the Angels did him any favors, inserting him into their rotation with his first start in Texas. The Rangers sit behind just one team with their team run line at 5.7. LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within eight points of .350 against him since last season and this Texas offense is suddenly stacked with powerful LHBs in five of the first six spots. In fact, among those first five LHBs, only cleanup hitter, Nomar Mazara (102 wRC+, .172 ISO) is below a .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year and he homered last night. He’s also one of the cheapest bats in the top half of the lineup. While the Texas bats have plenty of power, Shin-Soo Choo (138 wRC+, .243 ISO) is the only main the lineup above a 110 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year, though none of those LHBs are below 100.
Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Odrisamer Despaigne Worst bullpen, poor starter and positive run environment should lead to an onslaught tonight
The Cleveland Indians have a massive 6.27 implied run line tonight and it’s probably warranted. They’re at home, in one of the most positive run environments in baseball, against one of the worst pitchers on the board David Hess, whom batters from either side of the plate have a .360+ wOBA against, and he has the worst bullpen over the last 30 days behind him. The Indians are even easier to stack tonight with Yandy Diaz (134 wRC+, .104 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) in the cleanup spot. If only he could hit a fly ball. Jose Ramirez (190 wRC+, .379 ISO) has massive upside here. Both he and Francisco Lindor (144 wRC+, .298 ISO) are both worth their high price. It’s incredibly difficult to find reasons not to be heavily exposed to the first five hitters in this lineup.
Other tagged players: Yandy Diaz, Francisco Lindor, David Hess Red hot hitter who smashes RHP in a great spot
Batters from either side of the plate are within six points of a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Dan Straily since last season. He suffers a park downgrade against a Washington lineup that boasts the first seven hitters all either above a 100 wRC+ or a .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Bryce Harper (134 wRC+, .279 ISO) and Juan Soto (147 wRC+, .226 ISO) have both bases covered. Harper has a 199 wRC+ and 73.7 Hard% over the last week. Daniel Murphy (137 wRC+, .168 ISO) is on fire as well (204 wRC+, 56 Hard%). Only two teams exceed Washington’s 5.58 run line tonight.
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Juan Soto, Dan Straily Rays might find it difficult to play matchups at Fenway
The Rays will open with Ryne Stanek at Fenway and despite what the team’s plans are after him, the Red Sox are still heavily favored by Vegas. Their 5.44 implied run line is fourth highest on the board. Stanek actually has a reverse split. RHBs have a .365 wOBA and .402 xwOBA against him since last season. For Mookie Betts (154 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP last calendar year and J.D. Martinez (193 wRC+, .395 ISO), it doesn’t matter who the Rays throw behind him, Xander Bogaerts (119 wRC+, .216 ISO) and Ian Kinsler (103 wRC+, .214 ISO) may even prefer a RHP. The LH portion of the Boston lineup may drop in value here, especially if Stanek is followed by a LHP. However, if it’s Yonny Chirinos, batters from either side are within four points of a .360 wOBA against him this year.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Ian Kinsler, Yonny Chirinos, Ryne Stanek Massive park upgrade for this LH power hitter vs a HR prone RHP
Anthony DeSclafani hasn’t allowed a HR in two starts, but has still allowed 15 in 12 starts this year, 11 of those at home. Since last season, LHBs have a .375 wOBA, 42.6 Hard% and 30.3 GB% against him. Brandon Belt (152 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) know where this is going. He costs just $2.7K on FanDuel and not only is he facing a HR prone pitcher who can’t retire LHBs, but he transitions from one of the most power suppressing parks for LHBs to one of the most power friendly tonight. Find a way to fit Belt in some lineups. Alen Hanson (113 wRC+, .219 ISO) and Joe Panik (119 wRC+, .156 ISO) each cost exactly $2.2K on FanDuel as well, the former with a much more enviable lineup spot, five ahead of the latter.
Other tagged players: Anthony DeSclafani, Alen Hanson, Joe Panik Top bat may be missing tonight, but a surprising name in the leadoff spot for a well projected offense
Despite the absence of Joey Votto, the Cincinnati Reds still have one of the top run lines on the board (4.91) at home against the Giants. Casey Kelly makes the spot start and has not made a major league start in the last two calendar years, facing just 24 major league batters in relief since last season. He’s faced around 150 batters from each side of the plate for his career, around half of those innings coming in 2012. Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA against him between .365 and .370. The most interesting development here might be Billy Hamilton (65 wRC+, .071 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) at a low price. He may only need to reach base once to pay off and probably stands a better chance of that than normal considering how strongly this offense is projected. Jose Peraza (87 wRC+, .106 ISO) also only draws value from his low cost and great lineup spot in this matchup. Scooter Gennett (133 wRC+, .200 ISO), Eugenio Suarez (119 wRC+, .223 ISO) and even Preston Tucker (114 wRC+, .192 ISO) are higher quality bats. If you’re looking for a punt catcher, you might be able to do worse than Curt Casali (144 wRC+, .222 ISO) for just $3K on DraftKings too.
Other tagged players: Jose Peraza, Casey Kelly, Scooter Gennett, Eugenio Suarez, Preston Tucker, Curt Casali Daily Bullpen Alert: Worst bullpens in highly positive run environments
Each of the four bullpens on tonight’s slate with a FIP above five over the last 30 days is in a difficult spot in either a power friendly or extremely run positive environment. The Orioles (5.86 FIP, 5.3 K-BB%) are in Cleveland with David Hess in front of them. The Rangers (5.26 FIP, 11 K-BB%) are at home behind Drew Hutchison. These are premium attack spots. The Reds (5.11 FIP, 9.8 K-BB%) are at home against the Giants with Anthony DeSclafani on the mound. The Blue Jays are a bit more tricky due to their 17.0 K-BB% behind a 5.11 FIP over the last month. They’re also starting Marcus Stroman at Yankee Stadium. He has a 65.4 GB% and -0.6 Hard-Soft% in 10 starts since returning from the DL. Dan Straily, Freddy Peralta, Robbie Ray, Odrisamer Despaigne and Joey Luchhesi are all also near the bottom of the board in innings per start. Ray and Luchhesi are facing each other in San Diego, while the home bullpen has remained elite over the last month (2.75 FIP, 23.4 K-BB%) despite trading away key pieces. The Arizona pen is closer to the bottom of the league (4.42 FIP, 11.1 K-BB%). Despaigne makes his first start for the Angels (4.36 FIP, 11.7 K-BB%) in Texas, another primary attack spot. The Milwaukee bullpen (4.57 FIP, 14.2 K-BB%) has disappointed of late. They are in St Louis. The Miami pen (4.85 FIP, 7.0 K-BB%) offers more offensive upside with a park downgrade against a tough Washington lineup behind Straily.
Cheap And Pretty Good
On this slate, it is tough to find value bats to fit in Max Scherzer. If that’s the route you’re going, getting cheap top of the lineup exposure to the Angels offense in Texas against Drew Hutchison is the way to go. Fletcher has been a high contact bat at every level he’s played at, and that has continued right over to the majors, with just a 12.9% K rate in his first 53 games. Batting in between Calhoun and Upton in this hitting evironment against a low strikeout pitcher at this salary is too good to pass up.
Several 30%+ strikeout rate arms at varying prices on Friday
There are a lot of usable pitchers on Friday’s slate, maybe even half the board. Just three pitchers reach the $10K mark on either site with Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco the only two exceeding it, but four more are above Carrasco’s 28.1 K% that’s just sixth on the board. Scherzer costs $12.6K on DK against the Marlins. That almost seems a bargain. Deeper analysis is probably not even necessary. His strikeout rate (34.6%), SIERA (2.70) and xwOBA (.262) are all easily best on the board. Carrasco faces Baltimore (16.3 K-BB% vs RHP), but does so in a difficult run environment at home at the second highest price, while the Orioles actually have the fifth best wRC+ (117) and fifth most HRs (23) in August. Carrasco’s 17.1 SwStr% over the last month is best on the board. Charlie Morton exceeds $10K by just $100 on DraftKings. He’s been hit or miss with the strikeouts recently and faces a hard hitting Oakland offense in a park that’s actually a run environment downgrade for him, though still negative. Morton has been a better contact manager than some may realize. His 30.7% 95+ mph aEV is fifth lowest on the board to go with a 49.4 GB%. Jack Flaherty has the lowest aEV among the pitchers above a 30 K% tonight (85.9 mph). He and Walker Buehler are essentially tied for the top xwOBA behind Scherzer (.283). Flaherty has the highest strikeout rate on the board over the last month (36%). The Brewers have power, but also strike out 25.3% of the time against RHP. Robbie Ray is the most affordable of the pitchers exceeding a 30% strikeout rate ($7.6K on DK) and is in San Diego (15.9 K-BB% vs LHP). The Padres do have some power against southpaws too (14.6 HR/FB), while Ray allows some of the loudest contact on the board with a 42.7 Hard% this season, but the potential upside still allows him to remain one of the top values on the board despite a reduced strikeout rate over his last 10 starts (27.2%). This probably doesn’t even cover half of the arms for whom a legitimate argument can be made for on Friday, but they do have the most upside.
Other tagged players: Carlos Carrasco, Robbie Ray, Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, Charlie Morton Avoid the Lefties
It’s a little strange to say but Lance Lynn has been good since entering the starting rotation for the Yankees. To be fair, Lynn has always been a good pitcher…as long as he’s facing right handed hitters. Lynn’s platoon splits remain one of the wildest gaps you’ll see out of a starting pitcher as he’s been astoundingly better against RHB (.279 wOBA, 3.10 xFIP, 26.5 K%) than LHB (.346 wOBA, 5.04 xFIP, 17.5 K%) throughout the course of his career. It seems likely that Lynn will face four lefty bats but keep a close eye on the lineup card – Lynn gains value the fewer lefties Toronto throws in the lineup.
