DFS Alerts
Home Run Upside in Washington
The Nationals are -400 favorites tonight. In all my years of writing the Grind Down, I honestly can’t remember any team cracking the -400 mark. I know that baseball is random, but I still think they are a solid bet on the money line. They draw an exploitable matchup against Dan Straily, who has allowed a .370+ xwOBA and a 44%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. He’s also a fly-ball pitcher that has had home run issues throughout his career. This is a good spot for the phenom to add to his incredible rookie resume.
American League MVP?
The Indians have the highest implied run total on the board tonight, as they square off against David Hess. He is a low-strikeout pitcher with a high fly-ball rate. On the season, he has allowed a .355+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. It’s hard to see the Indians failing tonight and they stand out as one of the top stacks. Each of the first five batters in their projected lineup owns a .380+ xwOBA and a 39%+ hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season — Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Yandy Diaz, and Yonder Alonso.
Two Elite Arms on the Mound Tonight
Carrasco has some ridiculous home/road splits (and they’ve been that way for years), but we can throw them out the window tonight thanks to a matchup against the Orioles. After a slow start to the year, he has found that elite form over the last couple of months. In 22 starts overall, he owns a 3.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 5%. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of only 7% against right-handed pitching. I’m not sure the price savings is enough for me to play him over Max Scherzer, but I don’t mind having equal exposure to both if you are building multiple lineups.
No Doubt About it
At this point, we all know that Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in baseball. The only question when he takes the mound is whether or not he’s worth the price tag given his matchup and the slate that he is pitching in. This feels like a night to force Scherzer into your lineups and then build from there. Not only does he own a 35% strikeout rate and a 25% soft contact rate, but he is facing one of the worst offenses in baseball. There are strikeouts to be had in this lineup and it’s not like they draw many walks. This could realistically be a spot for Scherzer to throw a complete game shutout.
Glowing Endorsement
Blah, blah, blah, Robbie Ray is the best pt/$ pitching option on Friday’s slate, blah, blah, blah. We’ve been here plenty of times this season where Ray is simply underpriced for his skill-set yet he continually disappoints. That continual disappointment has led to a price tag that remains low and impossible to pass up. Ray’s lack of fantasy success this season can largely be attributed to the amount of hard contact he’s giving up – he owns the fourth highest hard-hit rate on Friday’s slate 42.7%. It’s essentially been hard-hit balls or strikeouts (30.7 K%) for Ray and that strikeout upside is what continues to make him fantasy relevant. I know this has hardly been a glowing endorsement for Ray but the reality is he’s still the best SP2 on the slate in all formats.
Returning to Form
Logan Forsythe is coming off a monster 5-for-5, 29 DK pt performance on Thursday night and once again will have the platoon advantage on Friday night against Tigers southpaw Matthew Boyd. Forsythe has struggled against lefties this season but has very strong numbers against them for his career (121 wRC+; .178 ISO). If Thursday’s performance is any indication of Forsythe returning to his old form against lefties then he is simply priced too cheap for his skill-set.
Park Shift
The San Francisco Giants get a huge park shift in their favor on Friday night as they travel to take on Anthony DeSclafani and the Reds at Great American Ballpark. DeSclafani has put together a string of solid performances but has really struggled against left handed hitters throughout his career, and especially this season. DeSclafani owns a .375 wOBA, 4.82 xFIP, 3 HR/9 and a 42.6% hard-hit rate to lefty hitters this year. While that HR rate will surely regress, the point remains that DeSclafani continues to get hammered by lefty bats. Brandon Belt is the best value on FanDuel ($2,700) but more appropriately priced on DraftKings ($4,200). Similar to Belt, Crawford is dirt cheap on FD and more appropriately priced on DK.
Other tagged players: Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik Welcome Back Jack
Nomar Mazara returned from the DL on Thursday night and promptly hit a HR in his first at bat back. Mazara gets another favorable matchup in the Arlington heat against the Angels newly acquired Odrisamer Despaigne. Despaigne has struggled the majority of his Big League career as he allows a lot of contact (14 K%) and owns a 4.68 SIERA. Mazara’s price didn’t budge on FanDuel ($2,500) and only went up $300 on DraftKings. Nomar is a cash game lock on FD and a primary OF option on DK.
Leading Off The Scoring
On FD, all the values are on the Texas side of this game, but on DK/FDRFT, Kole Calhoun is priced for matchup with Mike Minor, but will instead get to face Drew Hutchison at a value tag. Calhoun hit yet another home run last night continuing his second half surge, and now has 17 hits and 13 runs scored in his last 11 games and carries a huge 55% hard hit rate since the All-Star Break. Against a journeyman pitcher who has yet to show any control in limited sample size this season and a weak Rangers bullpen, Calhoun is a prime target in all formats.
He's Back And Too Cheap
Texas is the prime spot for offense tonight against the Angels low strikeout Odrisamer Despaigne. On FanDuel, the whole team is underpriced, but no one more so than Nomar Mazara at just $2,500 fresh off the DL. He looked fine, hitting a home run in his first game back and his middle of the order lineup spot gives him all kinds of upside tonight in both runs and RBI opportunities. On DK/FDRFT, Mazara is the most affordable piece on this team to get in play here in cash games. I would still try and get up to Roughned Odor as well, but if you can’t make it, Mazara at least gets you some exposure to the middle of this high upside lineup.
Site Specific Values
On FanDuel tonight, the Texas bats are simply mis-priced. It is overthinking it not to just load up on these guys in all formats. Sure, you can fade what should be high ownership in tournaments, but the salaries dictate that this is the place to start. The Angels are just out of pitching options, turning to Odrisamer Despaigne who has a career 14% strikeout rate. He does an OK job limiting hard contact, but in this ballpark in this heat, this many balls in play just can’t go well for him. Shin-Soo Choo has broken out of a mini-slump, picking up 11 hits in the last seven games, and his mix of patience and hard hit ability gives him all kinds of on base and run scoring upside from the top of the lineup with his .209 ISO and .369 wOBA against righties.
Take The Free Squares
On FanDuel tonight, the Texas bats are simply mis-priced. It is overthinking it not to just load up on these guys in all formats. Sure, you can fade what should be high ownership in tournaments, but the salaries dictate that this is the place to start. The Angels are just out of pitching options, turning to Odrisamer Despaigne who has a career 14% strikeout rate. He does an OK job limiting hard contact, but in this ballpark in this heat, this many balls in play just can’t go well for him. Rougned Odor would be my first choice with his mix of power and speed, 40% hard hits and 43% fly balls against right-handed pitching.
The Top Offense on the Board... Again
Is it just me, or does it seem like the Indians get to face a weak pitcher pretty much every night? Here we are again, with the woeful David Hess on the mound against this potent lineup. Hess owns an ERA and xFIP over 6.00 for the year to go along with meager strikeouts and high walks. In other words, he’s just not good. Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor are the top plays at their respective positions for about the 12th day in the last two weeks, while Yandy Diaz is an interesting value flier if he continues to start in the absence of Edwin Encarnacion. Yonder Alonso will be in most of my Cleveland stacks, as well. Expect some runs here.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Yandy Diaz, Yonder Alonso
Target the Power Bats
While James Shields got off to a surprisingly decent start to the year, we have started to see signs of regression since the All Star break, as home run James has returned. He has given up eight long balls over his last four starts and will always be prone to that. However, I don’t expect as many people to pick on him tonight with him drawing a matchup against a relatively weak Royals lineup. I don’t think you need to stack four or five hitters here, but taking a few shots on the power bats makes sense. Salvador Perez will be popular play on DK where you need a catcher, but he’s your top overall choice as the only current member of the roster with an ISO over .200 for the season. Lucas Duda seems healthy again and homered last night, so he can be added to the mix, and I don’t mind Merrifield at the top of the lineup. You can probably pass on everyone else.
Other tagged players: Lucas Duda, Whit Merrifield An Affordable Stack of Lefties?
I know that it’s not fun to stack the Giants, but the left-handed bats are viable targets tonight. First, the Giants get a nice park shift going from San Francisco to Cincinnati, and they also get to face a pitcher in DeSclafani who has struggled mightily against lefties this year. He has allowed a .375 wOBA, a 43% hard contact rate, and a 23% line drive rate to lefties since his return. Brandon Belt is the obvious primary target here given his elite profile against RHP and the fact that he is now healthy again. You can also throw in the more affordable lefties like Crawford and Panik, which will allow you to spend up at other spots in your lineup. This is a fine sneaky spot to target on this full slate Friday.
Other tagged players: Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik