DFS Alerts
Struggling pitcher with some platoon issues in a terrible park
Kenta Maeda has allowed 13 ERs over his last 17 innings (four HRs, five BBs, 15 Ks, 75 BF, 45.5 Hard%) and now has to pitch at Coors. Even so, it’s tough to roster exorbitantly priced RHBs against him, when they have just a .270 wOBA against him since last season and none of the first four in the order are above a 103 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. A completely different story, LHBs have a .330 wOBA against him and that’s up to .412 with three HRs over this three start span. Charlie Blackmon (122 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Carlos Gonzalez (135 wRC+, .244 ISO), and David Dahl (152 wRC+, .263 ISO) are all looking strong though, the latter two are less than $3.5K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, David Dahl, Kenta Maeda
Good pitcher, but terrible environment and an incredibly deep lineup
Jon Gray has had great results (at least seven innings in all four starts), but slightly worse peripherals since returning from the DL. He still has the fifth highest strikeout rate on the board (27.7%) with a 56.3 GB% at home (60%+ in each of his last two at home). The Dodgers are essentially in a tie with the Red Sox and Yankees for the top run line on the board at 5.33. The environment probably dictates that some Dodger exposure is necessary. This offense is so deep that even without Manny Machado in the lineup, every batter in it except Justin Turner (103 wRC+, .169 ISO) is above a 110 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Joc Pederson (141 wRC+, .287 ISO) is the only real standout out of the leadoff spot, but there are no weak spots, though Yasiel Puig (138 wRC+, .257 ISO) might not be someone players want to pay $5K for in the eight hole.
Affordable stack with a run line above five
Burch Smith has started five games and thrown 59 total innings including his pen work for the Royals this year. LHBs have a .396 wOBA against him. RHBs have a .329 wOBA, but a .368 xwOBA and 48.8 Hard% against him with a 38.3 GB%. The bullpen behind him is atrocious. The Cardinals are one of five teams above five implied runs tonight (5.13) and this is a great spot for them through the top five. Matt Carpenter (154 wRC+, .302 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the only real masher among the group, but Yadier Molina (109 wRC+, .182 ISO), Marcell Ozuna (109 wRC+, .150 ISO), Jose Martinez (121 wRC+, .156 ISO) and Paul DeJong (120 wRC+, .202 ISO) are all average or better bats who can be affordably stacked.
Other tagged players: Yadier Molina, Jose Martinez, Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna, Burch Smith Top half of the lineup could be too cheap against struggling pitcher
Jordan Zimmerman had his best start of the season (and maybe as a Tiger) against the Rangers (8 IP – 1 R – 11 K). He then allowed 13 runs over his next 14.2 innings (24 hits, six HRs) before bouncing back in Oakland last time out (6.1 IP – 2 ER – 6 K). However, he’s now allowed multiple HRs in four straight games with a 36.8 GB% and 43.4 Hard% in that span. Since last season, batters from either side of the plate are still above both a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Eddie Rosario (146 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a strong bat in this spot and more affordably priced than usual too. Joe Mauer (110 wRC+, .110 ISO, .396 xwOBA), Jorge Polanco (145 wRC+, .210 ISO) and Logan Forsythe (85 wRC+, .117 ISO) all seem a bit too cheap in the top half of a lineup implied for 4.57 runs too. Forsythe has a team high 175 wRC+ over the last week. This may not be the highest upside lineup on the board tonight, but for players paying up for pitching or bats elsewhere, it may have some value.
Other tagged players: Joe Mauer, Logan Forsythe, Jorge Polanco, Jordan Zimmermann Cheap top of the order bat with a hot start to his career
Jose Urena has a league average 4.11 SIERA and pitches in a great park, but has struggled as of late. He has just a 6.3 K-BB% over his last five starts, completing six innings just once with a 38.2 Hard%. The Mets don’t have a lot of bats who can do damage and just a 3.88 implied run line, but LHBs have a .330 wOBA against Urena since last year with a 38.8 Hard% and .374 xwOBA. Jeff McNeil is off to a great start (153 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP) and still costs $3.5K or less near the top of the lineup. Brandon Nimmo (145 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Michael Conforto (115 wRC+, .181 ISO) are both usable in this spot as well.
Other tagged players: Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jose Urena At least three HRs allowed five times this year
Dylan Bundy has allowed at least three HRs five times this season. One of those instances was against the Red Sox, though he failed to allow a HR in either of his other two starts against them. Mookie Betts (150 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has homered three times against Bundy in 33 PAs. He hit for the cycle last night, while both he and J.D. Martinez (187 wRC+, .389 ISO) both have a 250 wRC+ with a combined five HRs over the last week. Bundy has actually been fairly decent against RHBs against RHBs this year (.299 wOBA), though they have 16 of his 27 HRs allowed. LHBs have a .371 wOBA against him this year. Andrew Benintendi (144 wRC+, .206 ISO) and Mitch Moreland (120 wRC+, .248 ISO) are quality options from that side.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Dylan Bundy A dangerous slugger no LHP wants to see
The Yankees have a 5.36 run line that’s actually on top of the board tonight, running closely with the Red Sox and the Dodgers at Coors. Still a terrible spot for him, Mike Minor has been pitching some of his best baseball of the season: 18 IP – 5 ER – 2 BB – 19K – 67 BF. The Yankees are missing some powerful RH bats, but Minor has struggled against RHBs this year (.331 wOBA, 17 HRs) and there are still some boppers in this lineup. Giancarlo Stanton destroys LHP (225 wRC+, .419 ISO last calendar year), while Gleyber Torres (156 wRC+, .278 ISO), tonight’s leadoff man Aaron Hicks (137 wRC+, .268 ISO) and Miguel Andujar (115 wRC+, .239 ISO) have done damage as well. This lineup is still set up well in the upper half to hammer southpaws.
Other tagged players: Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hill, Mike Minor, Miguel Andujar Pitcher outlook improved with dangerous bat dropped in order, but still some value up top
Shane Bieber has tremendous issues with LHBs (.397 wOBA, 35.2 GB%, 48.9 Hard%), but has been much more effective against RHBs (.288 wOBA) with a 19 K-BB% overall. With the White Sox dropping the ice cold Yoan Moncada (-28 wRC+, 18.2 Hard% last seven days) down to eighth tonight, the White Sox have just one LHB above a .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year among the first eight batters. That’s Daniel Palka (111 wRC+, .277 ISO). While both Nick Delmonico (104 wRC+, .179 ISO) and Yolmer Sanchez (104 wRC+, .174 ISO) have value around $3.5K on DK and almost minimally priced on FD at the top of the lineup, Bieber’s outlook would seem improved with the dangerous Moncada’s drop in the lineup, though it could also take a strikeout away from him as well.
Other tagged players: Yoan Moncada, Yolmer Sanchez, Daniel Palka, Shane Bieber Left-handed bats have mauled this pitcher (.410 wOBA)
Anthony DeSclafani has allowed 15 HRs in 11 starts. Ten of those have come at home and 11 of them have been surrendered to LHBs, who have a .410 wOBA against him this season, while xwOBA regresses that all the way to .403. Batters from either side of the plate are above a 40% hard hit rate against him this season, but his ground ball rate is 15 points higher against RHBs with an eight point higher K% making the difference. David Peralta (142 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is expensive, but may be one of the top bats on the board tonight. He has a team leading 296 wRC+ and 66.7 Hard% over the last week. Eduardo Escobar (136 wRC+, .303 ISO) is a high upside bat with a price tag more than $1K lower on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Escobar, Anthony DeSclafani Top ISO in the lineup benefits from pitcher with a reverse split
Clay Buchholz has had an impressive run for the Diamondbacks, but not as impressive as his 2.68 ERA suggests (84.9 LOB%). His heavy curveball and changeup usage (35%) results in a platoon split (RHBs .351 wOBA, 43.2 Hard%, 32.6 GB% since last season, LHBs .286 wOBA). He’s visiting a park that accentuates power from either side of the plate. Eugenio Suarez (124 wRC+, .228 ISO) is a RHB who is actually the only batter in the lineup above a .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. This is the bat you want in this lineup. Joey Votto (157 wRC+, .172 ISO) can hit anyone, provided he’s healthy. Other RHBs in this lineup include only Jose Peraza (87 wRC+, .102 ISO) and Phillip Ervin (94 wRC+, .156 ISO). The former bats in the leadoff spot for less than $4K on DK. Both are $2.5K or less on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Clay Buchholz, Jose Peraza, Phillip Ervin Site Specific Savings
On FanDuel, the entire Twins lineup is a value tonight. They are facing Jordan Zimmermann, who has again started allowing the extreme hard contact that he dealt with last season, which has resulted in four straight games allowing multiple home runs. Jorge Polanco fills a tough shortstop position with a midddle of the order bat against a beatable pitcher and a bad bullpen. Polanco is one of four Twins starters with a contact rate above 82% against righties that should lead to a lot of baserunners and balls in play tonight.
Great Ballpark and a Great Matchup
The Diamondbacks see a ballpark boost playing in Cincinnati and draw an exploitable matchup against Anthony DeSclafani. As noted above, he has allowed a .403 xwOBA, a 3.41 HR/9, and a 43% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate. David Peralta is one of the top hitters of the slate, regardless of price. He owns a .382 xwOBA and a .249 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Massive Power against Southpaws
The Yankees hit a bunch of home runs last night and will look to keep it rolling tonight against Mike Minor. Even without Aaron Judge in the lineup, they still have one of the most talented offenses in baseball. On the season, Minor has allowed a .371 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, Giancarlo Stanton boasts a .464 xwOBA and a .352 ISO against left-handed pitching.
Great Form and a Great Matchup
Per usual Friday tradition, we have a massive slate on tap tonight. We start with the Red Sox and Orioles, two teams that are clearly heading in different directions. Eovaldi has been terrific in his first two starts with the Red Sox, pitching 15 scoreless innings while racking up nine strikeouts. The most impressive part is that he faced the Twins and Yankees. Tonight he draws a much better matchup, as he squares off against the Orioles, who are one of the best teams to target pitchers against. Their projected lineup has seven righties and as a whole, an xwOBA of only .312 with a strikeout rate of 26% against right-handed pitching this season.
Cheaper than the Other Ace Taking the Mound
Tanaka has really pitched well this season, posting a 3.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a ground ball rate of 47%. He still gives up more home runs than your average pitcher, but that shouldn’t stop us from targeting him in DFS. He has as much upside as any pitcher in the slate outside of Gerrit Cole (who has the tougher matchup of the two). While the Rangers do have some firepower in their lineup, they also have a 25% k-rate against right-handed pitching this season.