DFS Alerts
Daily Bullpen Alert: Top of AL East could feast on poor pens
The Blue Jays (5.56), Diamondbacks (5.39), Mets (5.18), Rangers (5.14) and Orioles (5.08) have the worst bullpens by FIP over the last month. Toronto (15.2%) is the only one of the four above a 10.8 K-BB% over that span. The Rangers and Orioles are facing the Yankees and Red Sox is clear attack spots tonight. The Mets have Zack Wheeler in Miami, while the Diamondbacks have Clay Buchholz in Cincinnati. Both have been pitching well enough to get deep in their games. The Blue Jays start Marco Estrada (4.65 ERA, 5.13 SIERA), but the above average K-BB for this pen suggest improvement may be coming. Burch Smith, Brett Anderson, Ervin Santana and Felix Pena have all averaged fewer than five innings per start. The Twins (4.21 FIP, 15.4 K-BB%) have a middle of the pack pen, while the A’s have been near elite (3.09 FIP, 17.2 K-BB%) over the last month. The Angels (4.42 FIP, 8.2 K-BB%) and Royals (4.97 FIP, 9.7 K-BB%) look like strong spots to attack.
A 19.0 K-BB% with scary platoon splits, but few opposing bats to fear
Shane Bieber has a 19.0 K-BB% through 10 starts, still his lowest at any level since being drafted. He also has some really dangerous platoon splits (LHBs .397 wOBA, 35.2 GB%, 48.9 Hard%). Quickly name all the LH White Sox batters who should be feared. He gets a park upgrade against an offense with a 19.0 K-BB% at home and 18.9 K-BB% vs RHP. Bieber costs around $8K on either site. Kevin Gausman has struck out two batters in three of his last four starts. Though it was just 4.6% in his last start, his 11.1 SwStr% is still the highest of his career. The Brewers have a lot of power (15.6 HR/FB on the road, 16.6 HR/FB vs RHP) and they’ve recently added more power. On the other hand, he must greatly benefit from leaving the AL East, is now pitching in a neutral park and the Brewers have just a 95 wRC+ with a 25.2 K% vs RHP this year. Jose Urena has just a 6.3 K-BB% over his last five starts, completing six innings just once with a 38.2 Hard%. He’s still missing enough bats to be useful (18.2 K% last 30 days) at the right price (around $6K) and has league average estimators in a great park. The Mets don’t strike out a lot (21.6% vs RHP), but have just an 11.5 HR/FB vs RHP. Derek Holland has a 30.6 K% over the last 30 days and has allowed just five ERs over his last 16.1 innings, all on the road. His 24.2 K% for the season is eighth best on the board and he pitches at home tonight against an average offense vs LHP (96 wRC+, 21.9 K%) at a cost below $8K. Nathan Eovaldi has already paid off for the Red Sox through two starts: 15 IP – 0 R – 1 BB – 9 K. He has the third best xwOBA on the board (.297) and is in a spot with some upside (Orioles 24 K% vs RHP).
Other tagged players: Kevin Gausman, Jose Urena, Nathan Eovaldi, Derek Holland Several high strikeout arms, but few that players may actually be able to use tonight
There are seven pitchers above a 25 K% on Friday. The bad news is that players can probably consider just a couple of them. Dylan Bundy is a HR machine, who faces the Red Sox. Kenta Maeda and Jon Gray are facing each other in Colorado. Blake Snell recently returned from the DL and may not be stretched out. Freddy Peralta has a greatly reduced SwStr% over the last month and is facing a contact prone Atlanta offense. That leaves us with the highest strikeout rate on the board, Gerrit Cole (35.1%), who also happens to be the highest priced pitcher by a large margin, and Masahiro Tanaka (26.3%). Cole wins today’s sabermetric triple crown (35.1 K%, 2.89 SIERA and .290 xwOBA are all best on the board). He’s struck out at least eight in five straight starts. The Mariner are a quality offense with just a 19.9 K% vs RHP, but Houston may be the most negative run environment in baseball. Cole is probably not the top value on the board at his current cost, but he’s clearly the top pitcher. No other pitcher reaches $10K on both sites, but Masahiro Tanaka is one of two others above $10K on DraftKings. He’s struck out 26 of his last 73 batters over 19.2 innings, allowing just one run. His 14.1 SwStr% is the highest on the board. We all know the risk (19 HRs in 18 starts). However, he’s actually only allowed five of them at home this year. The Rangers have some power (14.8 HR/FB), but even though this is a very power friendly park, it’s an overall run environment downgrade for this offense. They Rangers also have a 25.3 K% vs RHP. Zack Wheeler and his 22.8 K% is the other $10K pitcher on DraftKings and he may be the best value of them all. He has not allowed a run in his last 13 innings striking out 16 Braves and Pirates, two of the lowest strikeout rates against RHP in baseball. He’s gone at least seven innings in five of his last eight starts with the lowest aEV on the board (85 mph) among those with more than a few starts to add to his increasing strikeout rate (25%). Tonight, he gets a rare park upgrade against an offense with an 80 wRC+ and 8.7 HR/FB at home with a 15.9 K-BB% vs RHP. He’s struck out 16 of the 50 Marlins he’s faced this season.
Other tagged players: Masahiro Tanaka, Zack Wheeler Platoon Skills
Let me start by saying this: Blake Snell is a good pitcher. But that doesn’t mean we can’t take underpriced hitters against him. It’s easy to forget just how dangerous Travis is with a bat against lefty pitchers because he’s either been injured or buried at the bottom of the Jays order, but the Blue Jays righty owns a career 115 wRC+ and .205 ISO against south paws. Provided he continues to bat toward the top of the Blue Jays order, Travis will remain in the cash game value discussion for as long as he’s this cheap.
Missing No Bats
This is simple – Ervin Santana at this stage in his career is not a good pitcher. Santana has struggled through three starts for the Twins where he’s allowed 10 ER over 14.2 IP and unsurprisingly has not been missing any bats (4.6 SwStr%). Niko Goodrum is cheap across the industry, should bat toward the top of the Tigers order, and has shown some pop (.188 ISO) in a limited Big League sample. The Tigers offense as a whole is a complete mess, but I am fine using guys like Niko Goodrum or the slightly higher priced Nick Castellanos as lineup fillers.
Mispriced Team
Apparently FanDuel is expecting 2014 Jordan Zimmermann to show up on Friday night because all of the Twins players are priced about $500 too cheap on FanDuel. To Zimmermann’s credit, he has actually rebounded nicely from a awful 2017 season to put up some solid 2018 metrics (22.5 K%, 3.95 SIERA) but that doesn’t take away from the fact that the Twins are just simply mis-priced. DraftKings did a better job pricing the Minnesota bats but they are still cheap enough to use as one-off’s, whereas on FanDuel you’re likely looking at rostering 2-3 of them in your cash game lineups.
Other tagged players: Logan Morrison, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Logan Forsythe Most Talent Under $7K
Gausman doesn’t draw a great matchup in his second start for the Atlanta Braves but I still think he’s the most talented pitcher not named Kenta Maeda (Coors, boo) in this price range. Early ownership indications have the likes of Jose Urena and Austin Gomber coming in more heavily owned than Gausman on DraftKings and I’m just not sure that’s the right move. Gausman will still ultimately benefit from moving to the NL and his already league average stats, like strikeout rate (19 K%) and SIERA (4.19), should see improvement with weakened competition. I’m not looking to die on Kevin Gausman hill, and I’ll reserve him for GPPs only, but I do think he ends up outscoring the Jose Urena and Austin Gomber’s of the world.
Good Context, Better Price Tag
It’s not often we get someone at least semi-competent priced at $4,000 on DraftKings but it appears that is what we have with Clay Holmes on Friday night. Holmes has been impressive this season in the Minors, posting strong strikeout totals (24 K%) and good run prevention metrics (3.43 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 3.33 xFIP). He was also impressive in his last Big League start (his second ever) when he struck out six hitters and didn’t allow any runs over six innings pitched against the Brewers back on July 14th. Holmes gets a favorable matchup against a Giants squad that has struggled offensively all season (23.9 K%, 93 wRC+). He also gets the benefit of this game being played at pitcher friendly AT&T Park. Even if you think of Holmes as a league average pitcher, this is good context for the young righty and an even better price tag.
The Power Is Coming Back
For a while, Jordan Zimmermann was starting to look like his old self, but the hard hits and power have come right back into his game, mirroring what we saw in his awful 2017 campaign. He throws a ton of strikes, and over the past month, the hard hits have jumped back up to the 40% range that we saw last season and that has resulted in four straight starts allowing multiple home runs. Eddie Rosario has low strikeouts to go with a 40% hard hit rate, 44% fly balls and a team leading .233 ISO against right-handed pitching, all at a mid-range salary against a beatable starter and a weak bullpen.
Cheap Upside at a Weak Position
Second base is a nice spot to save some salary, and we get that opportunity with Daniel Descalso in Cincinnati against the power prone Anthony Desclafani, who has allowed a huge .400 ISO to lefties this season with 48% hard hits and 43% fly balls. Descalso has lost his everyday starting job, but that has helped bring his salary down to near minimum on FD, and with his 38% hard hits, 46% fly balls and .188 ISO against righties, there is a lot of points per dollar upside here if he is in the lineup tonight.
Find Some Power Here
The Diamondbacks travel to Cincinnati to face one of the most power prone pitchers in the league, backed by a bad bullpen. Anthony Desclafani has allowed a cartoonish .400 ISO to lefties on a terrible 48% hard hits, 43% fly balls and below average 18% strikeouts. Eduardo Escobar is the standout value here on DK/FDRFT with a team high .284 ISO against right-handed pitching on the strength of a 41% hard hit rate and 47% fly balls. He also has the switch hitting benefit if they see one of the Reds lefty relievers.
Catch Some Value Where You Can
It’s tough to find much hitting below the $4k mark on DraftKings tonight. With Salvador Perez, we get a middle of the order catcher at a savings against a below average pitcher. The Cardinals’ Austin Gomber has shown no ability to limit hard contact to right-handed bats and Perez has a strong power profile against lefties with a .211 ISO on 41% hard hits and 44% fly balls.
Loaded Outfield
The top end of the outfield position is absolutely loaded tonight. Between Coors Field, the Yankees and Red Sox, there is no shortage of limitless upside. If just choosing one of these studs, I will side with Giancarlo Stanton at home against Mike Minor. Stanton has been otherwordly against lefties again this season with a 59% hard hit rate, .349 ISO and .46 wOBA. Everything about Minor is below average against righties with 19.7% strikeouts, 44% fly balls and 40% hard hits leading to a .225 ISO against. On top of the ideal matchup data, Stanton comes in hot with homers in three straight games.
The Super Sneaky Risk/Reward Stack
Stacking the Pirates is never a whole lot of fun. Stacking the Pirates in the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park is definitely not a whole lot of fun. However, that means we are guaranteed to see low ownership here, and Derek Holland owns a weak profile against right-handed bats. He has allowed a wOBA north of .340 and a 44% hard contact rate against them this year. You can get reasonable prices on these guys, and while they don’t have the greatest data against LHP, I like the low-owned potential against a declining pitcher. Cervelli, Freese, and Bell all have nice batting eyes against left-handed pitching with a fair share of walks, and they all own wOBA marks above .335 against LHP. Fire up your low owned GPP stack, and you can throw in another hitter like Mercer or Marte for good measure if you want a fourth option.
Other tagged players: David Freese, Josh Bell
Lefties, Lefties, Lefties!
Anthony DeSclafani has some of the most extreme splits in the league, and he simply can’t get left-handed batters out. Lefties have posted a .410 wOBA, 44% hard contact rate, and a 23% line drive rate against DeSclafani this year. Arizona will likely have five lefties in the lineup tonight, and this makes for a great GPP stack. Peralta and Escobar have the best data profiles of the bunch and would be my first targets, and then you can mix and match from there.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Escobar, Daniel Descalso, Jon Jay