DFS Alerts

Red hot offense facing pitcher who has allowed 14 HRs over his last eight starts

The Washington offense has been on a tear. They have a team 148 wRC+, 3.6 K-BB% and 16.4 HR/FB last seven days. Tonight, they are being fed a HR prone pitcher. Anthony DeSclafani has allowed a HR in nine of 10 starts, 14 over his last eight. You might think that Washington is a less power friendly environment than Cincinnati, but DeSclafani has still allowed five HRs in three road starts in Pittsburgh, Cleveland and St Louis, the two NL parks not exactly power friendly at all. LHBs have a .409 wOBA with 11 of those HRs this year. Bryce Harper (121 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Juan Soto (144 wRC+, .229 ISO) have great upside tonight. Adam Eaton (138 wRC+, .112 ISO) and Daniel Murphy (132 wRC+, .178 ISO) have value as well. Soto and Murphy each have a wRC+ above 240 over the last week, combining for five HRs in that span. The Nationals have a 5.41 implied run line exceeded by only two teams tonight.

You won't guess the second best hitter vs RHP in this lineup

Trevor Richards has some interesting numbers in the upper minors with an above average strikeout rate and walk rate below 6%. The control part has not transitioned to the majors yet (10.5 BB% in 15 MLB starts), but the strikeout rate and contact management have been league average. The one issue he does have is a reverse platoon split (RHBs .372 wOBA, 49.6 Hard%), which makes two Philadelphia bats extremely interesting. In fact, Rhys Hoskins (151 wRC+, .302 ISO) leads the lineup in both wRC+ and ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year, but nobody would probably guess than Maikel Franco is second (121 wRC+, .233 ISO). He bats fifth after a walk-off.

Elite RH bat against LHP should see some men on base against southpaw with control issues

The Reds have just one RH batter who hammers LHP and Gio Gonzalez has suppressed LHBs to a .231 wOBA and 50 GB% since the start of last season, but Eugenio Suarez has crushed LHP over the last calendar year (197 wRC+, .321 ISO) and Gio Gonzalez has a 4.9 K-BB% over his last 13 starts, while the Reds have a 10.7 K-BB% vs LHP. This is a great, potentially under the radar spot to utilize an elite RH bat against LHP, who is likely to see some runners on base in front of him tonight.

High priced arm has allowed four HRs on sliders over last four starts

The Red Sox are merely hanging around the board with a 4.24 implied run line, which is one of the lowest you’ll ever see for a game at Fenway. Luis Severino is the reason for that, but considering his recent performance (20.9 K% last 30 days, seven HRs last four starts), it may not be justified. Four of those HRs have been surrendered on sliders. If Severino is not missing bats, J.D. Martinez (185 wRC+, .388 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has a .520 Contact xwOBA against sliders since 2016 according to PlateIQ. If premium Boston bats are going to run low ownership numbers at home (see ownership projections when they are updated later), they are something to seriously consider against a struggling pitcher.

Lone RH power bat gains value in this great park vs pitcher with reverse split

In one of three very healthy run environments on this board (along with Texas and Boston), the Indians have a 5.16 implied run line against Jaime Barria, who has an 11.6 K% and 5.27 SIERA over the last month, also has a .363 xwOBA on the season. However, it’s been RHBs who he’s been significantly worse against (.397 wOBA, .420 xwOBA), which ups the value of Edwin Encarnacion (134 wRC+, .279 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) as one of just two RHBs in the lineup. While LHBs have just a .241 wOBA against Barria this year, that’s no reason to avoid the elite LHBs for the Tribe, considering the run environment and 60 point hike 60 xwOBA gives to that mark. Jose Ramirez (179 wRC+, .354 ISO) is nearing the $6K mark, but it’s hard to argue he hasn’t been worth it.

Cheap Bats in Elite Hitting Conditions

The Orioles are my favorite cheap stack once again. While they didn’t quite meet the production of a few other offenses last night, there is no reason why we shouldn’t go back to the well, especially at lower ownership. As mentioned above, Ariel Jurado posted a 4.53 FIP with a 14% strikeout rate in 16 Double-A starts this season. He has to be one of the most hittable pitchers on the schedule tonight. The Orioles have struggled against right-handed pitching, but this matchup and this ballpark should help. The best part is that they are cheap across the industry. You can easily stack Baltimore and still have plenty of cap space to spend on your other roster spots.

Nearly a .400 xwOBA vs LHBs since last season

Lucas Giolito has been lit up by LHBs to the tune of a .356 wOBA since last season. His xwOBA against them over that span is just five points from reaching .400. The Rays don’t generally find themselves on the top third of the board, especially at home, but their 4.57 run line places them there tonight. With call-ups and trades, the lineup has had some turnover recently and perhaps for the better. Leadoff man Kevin Kiermaier (93 wRC+, .181 ISO) is currently the only bat in the lineup below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year. He does have lineup leading 225 wRC+ over the last week and Giolito’s numbers against LHBs make he and Jake Bauers (129 wRC+, .263 ISO) nice plays at the top of this lineup.

Right Back to the Well in Texas

The Rangers are my favorite stack on the schedule tonight, but that’s going to be a common thought. The question becomes, at what point does the ownership get too high to warrant a fade? Baseball is the most volatile DFS sport, so any time we have concentrated ownership, it’s not a bad idea to fade it for tournaments. With that said, it’s hard not to like Texas here. They have an exploitable matchup against David Hess, who has allowed a .350+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. They will also be able to feast on a tired Orioles’ bullpen. Shin-Soo Choo stands out as the top play, as he boasts a .420 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Good Matchup for his Pirates' Debut

The Cardinals are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and are facing a very talented right-handed pitcher in Chris Archer. While anything can happen in baseball, that’s not justification for targeting players in bad matchups. On the season, Archer has held right-handed hitters to a .331 xwOBA on a 46% ground ball rate with a 27% strikeout rate. His struggles have always come against left-handed hitters, which brings Matt Carpenter into the fold as a one-off in tournaments. He continues to mash the baseball and now owns a .430 xwOBA against right-handed pitching on the season.

Elite Arm Pitching at Home

This should be a fun battle between one of the best pitchers in the National League (deGrom) and one of the hottest offenses in baseball. While he’s had some amazing seasons as a professional, this has to be deGrom’s best thus far. In 21 starts, he has a 3.00 SIERA (1.82 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 30%. He has an above-average ground ball rate and an elite soft contact rate (25%). Every single box in his pitching table above (for the 2018 season) is green or blue. He’s truly been impressive. The crazy part? He has more losses (six) than wins (five) this season. It’s almost comical how little run support the Mets have given him this season. From a raw projection standpoint, deGrom is the top pitcher of the slate.

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The salaries on the Rangers batters are just simply too low tonight on FanDuel. This is a talented lineup facing a bad starter, backed by a bad bullpen in a hitters park. Both Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo have hard hit rates above 45% against right-handed pitching with fly ball leans and they have six home runs between them in the last five games. The issue on these power bats is their elevated strikeout rates, but they face a pitcher in David Hess with just a 14.8% strikeout rate against left-handed batters.

Daily Bullpen Alert: Texas and Washington two spots where bullpens should not prohibit potential onslaughts

Interesting that the two worst bullpens by FIP over the last month (Diamondbacks 5.72 & Indians 5.46) have both made key additions over the last week or so and both have a double digit K-BB (10.3% & 14.3%) over that span as well. The Mets (5.16 FIP, 6.2 K-BB%) and Marlins (5.06 FIP, 5.9 K-BB%) have both traded away some better pieces. Both games have rain concerns and Jacob deGrom is likely to limit work behind him tonight. Trevor Richards averages barely five innings per start though. The only starter below Richards tonight is Brett Anderson, but the A’s have a 3.17 FIP over the last 30 days that’s third best in baseball with a 17.7 K-BB%. Ariel Jurado has thrown 10.2 innings in two starts. The Rangers have a 4.94 FIP and 10.1 K-BB% in the last month. The Reds have a similar 4.90 FIP and 10.1 K-BB% over the same period. Home run prone Anthony DeSclafani has averaged less than 5.1 innings over his 10 starts. The Royals have a 4.80 FIP and 7.6 K-BB%, which is an improvement over their 30 day span. Heath Fillmyer has thrown 16 innings in three starts. The Orioles (4.69 FIP, 11.1 K-BB%) have traded away their top pieces and are in Texas, backing David Hess.

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The DK/FDRFT pricing is again tight enough that there just isn’t much to love under the $4k/$8k barrier. With the Baltimore-Texas game again being the stand out on this slate, it makes sense to get your salary savers in this game, especially when you can get a skilled middle of the order batter on the top team, the Rangers. What Beltre lacks in home run power, he makes up for with hard hit line drives, giving him his 9th straight season with a batting average over .285, and a prime lineup spot that gives him both run scoring and RBI upside.

With potential weather and matchup issues for tonight’s highest priced arms, players not looking to pay up for their arms do have some options. Chris Archer makes his Pittsburgh debut and immediately benefits from getting out of the AL East. A complete difference in pitching philosophies, his new team likes to keep the ball down, while his old team likes elevated fastballs. The one negative is that the Pirates allow a team BABIP 21 points higher than the Rays. Archer starts off with a nice matchup against a predominantly RH St Louis lineup in a park that greatly suppresses RH power. Vince Velasquez doesn’t always get it done, especially in some recent starts, but his 27.1 K% is a top five mark among regular starters tonight and only Verlander and deGrom have a better xwOBA than his .295 mark. He has upside. He also has one of the top matchups on the board against the Marlins (87 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB% vs RHP). Anibal Sanchez has increased his cutter usage, decreased his sinkers with the result just 10 HRs allowed this year with a 23.4 K% and the lowest aEV on the board (84.2 mph). He pitches in a great park against an offense with a 77 wRC+ and 8.4 HR/FB at home, weather permitting. Alex Wood has a league average strikeout rate and 3.85 SIERA in the most negative run environment on the board. While the Astros have a 117 wRC+ on the road and vs LHP, they’re lacking some of their best bats currently. Marco Gonzales has failed to complete six innings in just two of his last 17 starts, once by a single out. His last five starts: 34.1 IP – 6 ER – 2 HR – 5 BB – 31 K – 129 BF. He faces Toronto in one of the most negative run environments in play tonight. German Marquez faces a dangerous Milwaukee lineup (16 HR/FB at home and vs RHP) that’s recently gotten even more dangerous, but the Brewers also have a 25 K% both at home and vs RHP too, while his strikeout rate is up to 23.8% on the season with a .311 xwOBA on the road since last season. He has upside beyond his cost below $8K. Jake Odorizzi has a 25.9 K% over the last month and faces an empty Kansas City lineup. Two starts back, he struck out eight Royals through six innings. Trevor Richards struck out eight Nationals through six shutout innings in his last start. This disconnect has been a walk rate below 6% in 20 starts above A ball before reaching the majors, but a 10.5 BB% in 15 MLB starts. Otherwise, the strikeout rate and contact management have been league average The Phillies have a split high 25.9 K% vs RHP. Ryan Borucki has estimators and an xwOBA that aren’t in line with his actual marks, but neither is terrible. He has gone at least six innings in five of his six starts and does get a park upgrade in Seattle.

Weather and matchup concerns for some of tonight's highest priced pitchers

First off, weather is going to be something players are going to need to watch tonight. There are some big arms on the mound Friday night and there might be some concern about an interruption in at least one spot. And that’s Jacob deGrom. If this game plays clean he might be the top option on the board. Removing starts before and after a short DL stint, he’s failed to go at least seven innings just twice in his last 16 starts. His 15.0 SwStr% is tops on the board, as is his 2.25 FIP and 3.2% Barrels/BBE. His .260 xwOBA at home since last year is also the top split. The Braves have just a 96 wRC+ and 10.9 HR/FB vs RHP, but don’t strike out much either (20.5%). However, he’s made four starts against them: 25 IP – 2 R – 31 K – 95 BF. That includes the four inning start that sent him to the DL or those numbers might be even better. Justin Verlander costs more on $700 more on DK, but a few hundred less on FD. has the top strikeout rate (32.9% – 39.3% over the last month), SIERA (2.83), and xwOBA (.247) on the board. He failed to go six innings in his last start for just the third time this year and one of those times he missed by a single out. He faces a loaded Dodger lineup (114 wRC+, 9.9 BB%, 15.8 HR/FB vs RHP), who have added bats, but does so in the most negative run environment on the board. The matchup gives deGrom a slight edge. Patrick Corbin reaches $10.4K on DK, but misses double digits by $200 on FD. He has a 15.6 SwStr% over the last month and has struck out 17 of his last 51. The Giants have just an 11 HR/FB on the road (82 wRC+) and vs LHP (91 wRC+). He’s a fine lower priced pivot from the higher profile arms. Luis Severino reaches $10K on FD, but not DK. He’s allowed seven HRs over four starts, four of them on sliders. He has just a 20.9 K% over the last month and is facing the Red Sox (117 wRC+, 18.6 K% vs RHP) at Fenway (121 wRC+ at home).